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Champions League Predictions > Apr 12th & 13th


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Bayern Munich vs Villarreal

The Champions League Quarter-Final second legs begin on Tuesday night with the 8pm BST kick-off between German Bundesliga side Bayern Munich and Spanish La Liga club Villarreal at the Allianz Arena. It's the visiting team who hold a narrow 1-0 lead after a shock first leg victory that stunned one of the favourites to lift the trophy. The home side are undoubtedly still favourites to progress but the job has now become a fair bit more difficult.

Bayern Munich were expected to set themselves up for this game with a positive performance and result last week but that all went to the wind when they suffered a loss and failed to score at the Estadio de la Ceramica. Julian Nagelsmann's side now know that not only do they have to score but they also need to keep a clean sheet to avoid making their job even tougher. Bayern have won 12 of their last 14 home games and have won by at least 2 goals in 7 of those wins. One crazy statistic that will give the home fans hope is that their side have averaged scoring 5 goals at home in the Champions League so far this season. I'm going to once again suggest Leroy Sane as a potential pick for anytime scorer, despite his current poor form, having bagged 6 goals in his 9 appearances in the competition so far. Hopefully, Nagelsmann will give him more game time in this second leg.

Villarreal did what they do best in this competition and that was upset the odds. Unai Emery once again showed why he's a master of European knockout competition with his team's surprise victory last week. The Yellow Submarine know a repeat defensive performance will see them through but the big question will be whether Emery decides to sit back to protect the narrow one goal lead but risk coming under severe pressure from a fervent Bayern attack. Villarreal have been far from impressive on the road recently having lost 3 of their last 4 away matches and having failed to even score in all of those. They did shock Juventus by a 3-0 score in the last round away from home though so they do have a track record of upsetting the expectations.

My gut instinct is to back Bayern Munich to bounce back with a convincing win here. I have no doubt they will feel like a wounded animal here and in front of a passionate home crowd they could run riot. Villarreal did incredibly well to grab that win at home last week but this is a mammoth task for them. Bayern are irresistible at home in Europe this season so they'll unleash hell on their guests. I'm not sure Villarreal have the quality to keep them at bay.

Bayern Munich -1 @ 1.70 with Boylesports

Total Goals Scored Over 3.5 @ 2.05 with Unibet

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Real Madrid vs Chelsea

The next preview from the Champions League Quarter-Final second legs is the clash between Spanish La Liga team Real Madrid and Premier League side Chelsea in an 8pm BST kick-off from the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday night. This tie could well be done and dusted after the Spaniards secured a convincing 3-1 win in the first leg in London but will the reigning champions still have something to say in this second leg?

Real Madrid have a habit of delivering the goods when it comes to the Champions League. There's a reason they have won it a staggering 13 times including on 4 occasions since 2013/14. Carlo Ancelotti will have been grateful to striker Karim Benzema for his hat-trick that knocked out PSG in the last 16 and a second hat-trick in as many games that has put the team on the brink of progressing to the Semi-Finals. You would have to think that backing the Frenchman to score here makes sense given he's now bagged 13 goals in his last 8 appearances. Los Blancos have now won 7 of their last 9 games in the Champions League. The win isn't guaranteed though with Real Madrid conceding in 6 of their last 10 matches. If Chelsea bag that first goal then suddenly the Bernabeu crowd could get twitchy.

Chelsea come into this game facing a momentous challenge. Thomas Tuchel's men must score at least 3 times to stand any chance of progressing. They warmed up nicely for scoring goals with their dominant 6-0 win over Southampton on the weekend which was the perfect remedy after two disappointing defeats to Brentford and Real Madrid. Unfortunately, history dictates the challenge could prove impossible with no English club ever winning by more than one goal at the Bernabeu. The Blues have scored in each of their last 8 away games though so they certainly possess the fire power to cause Real Madrid concerns. However, Chelsea have also lost to both Juventus and Manchester City away this season so they have come undone against the more elite teams on their travels.

I think it's clear that Chelsea will give this a good go but it's an approach that will take Tuchel out of his comfort zone. Overturning a two goal deficit heading into an away tie with even the most average of European sides would be a tall order but doing so against a Real Madrid team who appear to be growing into this competition makes it look extremely unlikely. I think we'll see a courageous Chelsea effort but I can see them coming undone and falling short.

Real Madrid Draw No Bet @ 1.81 with SBK

Anytime Scorer: Karim Benzema @ 2.30 with Sporting Index

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Bayern Munich vs Villarreal

Bayern Munich will be looking for another win after the 1:0 Bundesliga triumph over Augsburg. However, they need to be more confident since they are 1:0 down on aggregate in this tie. Matches with Bayern Munich have usually been entertaining affairs recently, with a lot of goalmouth action being a real hallmark. Over their past six clashes, the sum total of 21 goals has flown in for both sides combined (at an average of 3.5 goals per game), with 17 of those coming from Bayern Munich. Nevertheless, the fans will hope for a repeat of the tie against Salzburg.  

In their previous fixture, Villarreal drew 1:1 in the La Liga match with Athletic Bilbao. The Yellow Submarine was excellent in the first leg, and the result could have been more comfortable in their favor. The trend of at least one side getting a clean sheet in games involving Villarreal has become apparent recently. A glance at their last six meetings reveals that this has happened five times. During those clashes, opposing sides have managed a goal tally of 4, and Villarreal has scored 6. Playing away from home wasn’t a problem for them against Juventus, and they want to put on another good display.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Bayern Munich struggled in the first leg against Salzburg as well but showed its full strength on the home ground. Although we don’t expect them to score seven times again, the Bavarians should beat their rivals by at least two goals. 

Goals Market Prediction

The hosts need to attack from the first minute, and everybody knows how dangerous Lewandowski and the lads are in the final third. We expect another efficient encounter with at least four goals in total.  

Bayern Munich AH -1.5 @ 1.70

Over 3.5 FT @ 2.10

Correct score 4:1 @ 15.00

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Real Madrid vs Chelsea

Real Madrid will be looking for another win after a 2:0 La Liga triumph versus Getafe. Los Blancos were excellent in their first encounter in London,  celebrating a 3:1 victory. Three or more goals per game were recorded in 6 of the last six fixtures where Real Madrid has been involved. Their opponents scored 8 of them in these games while Real Madrid managed to get a total of 15. The home side is confident on the top of La Liga, and they can fully concentrate on this fixture. However, they are about to face the defending Champions League winners, and Real Madrid should not show any signs of complacency.

Chelsea comes into this meeting following a 6:0 Premier League win vs Southampton in their previous fixture. The Blues managed to boost their confidence with a massive win since they are two goals behind in this tie. Over the course of their previous half-dozen outings, Chelsea has helped themselves to a total of 13 goals. Chelsea has also managed to score on each one of those occasions. During those fixtures, they have had eight goals go against them. Although they haven’t been very consistent lately, nobody should write off Chelsea so easily. Nevertheless, they are still the Champions League defensing champions.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Real Madrid has a quite comfortable advantage, and they should try to keep the low tempo of the game. On the other hand, Chelsea won’t give up, but we don’t see them being capable of getting more than a draw at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu.

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams are very talented in the offense, and the Blues will try to exploit every opportunity to get back into this tie. They should be able to put one behind Real Madrid’s goalkeeper, but we don’t expect Chelsea to keep their net intact as well.

Draw @ 3.50

BTTS Yes @ 1.70

Correct score 1:1 @ 6.50

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Atletico Madrid vs Manchester City

Atletico Madrid
The use of a 5-5-0 formation almost paid off on that night. The tie is far from over despite the 1-0 deficit, but the reigning La Liga champions have suffered another setback since the Etihad defeat - losing 1-0 to Mallorca last time out in a league game after previously winning six games in a row across all the fixtures. Atletico's return to the Wanda Metropolitano also bodes well for the club, which has won each of their past three league games there.

Manchester City
De Bruyne's goal in the 70th minute gave the Citizens something positive to take away from the first match. After a 2-2 draw with Liverpool last time out, Man City now has a tight grip on the Premier League crown for the rest of the season. Guardiola's side has also put up a 12-game undefeated run on rival turf, winning 10 of them, while conceding just one goal in their past 630 minutes of domestic and continental play.

Prediction
After limiting the Citizens to only one goal last week, Simeone appears to have been compelled to take a more aggressive strategy. As a result of this strategy, the Atletico backline will be open to City's sweeping breakaway plays, which will be more difficult to control without Gimenez, therefore we can only see the Citizens advancing to the last four once more.

Manchester City  @1.79

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At Anfield Liverpool's playoff against Benfica on Wednesday.

 

Liverpool

After a straight win against Benfica 3-1 first leg away and have not lost at home to Portuguese opposition since 2005/06 so losing is not allowed. Liverpool playing at a good performance after a draw-in to the title race 2-2 against Man City in the league at the weekend. Liverpool haven't lost in 6 matches with more goals both home and away (W4, D1)

 

Benfica

The weekend match against Belenenses 3-1 defeat and they had the advantage of being able to rest some of their players against the second leg champion league at Anfield. Benfica is going to face one of the toughest clubs at Anfield with history offering little hope, as Benfica have won just one quarter-final away leg in any UEFA competition (W1, D2, L6) with the heaviest defect (1-4) in 2009/10 Europa League trip to Anfield.

 

Pick: Over 2.5

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Liverpool vs Benfica

Liverpool heads into this game following a 2:2 Premier League draw match vs Manchester City. The Reds remained one point behind the Citizens, and they will continue an exciting race for the Premier League title. Their most recent results highlight the fact that much respect should be given to the Liverpool backline. Liverpool has been mean at the back, with the number of goals that have gone past their goalkeeper over the course of their previous six outings standing at 3. They are 3:1 up in this tie, and the hosts are very close to the semi-finals. The Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp will be happy not to have any fitness worries to speak of before this clash, owing to a completely healthy squad available to choose from.

Benfica will come into the game following on from a 3:1 Primeira Liga win with the downing of Belenenses in their previous match. However, they are far from the Primeira Liga title battle. Looking at their form, Benfica has been scored against in 5 of their last six games, conceding nine goals in total. In defense, Benfica could really do with shoring things up. The eagles need a superb performance at Anfield to bring some excitement into this tie since they are 3:1 down. On the other hand, they can play without any pressure, as they are not considered favorites in this matchup.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

Liverpool continues its unbeatable run after a trip to Manchester, while Benfica hasn’t been too consistent lately. The Reds shouldn’t have trouble recording another win, and we believe they will celebrate by at least two goals. 

Goals Market Prediction

Both teams have participated in many high-scoring matches recently, and this one shouldn't be much different. Liverpool’s last two games went over a 3.5 margin, as well as Benfica’s previous three. Therefore, we can expect at least three goals in total.

Liverpool AH -1.5 @ 1.80

Over 2.5 FT @ 1.45

Correct score 3:0 @ 9.00

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Atletico Madrid vs Manchester City

Atlético Madrid will be looking to improve on their last outing after the 1:0 La Liga defeat in their previous game at the hands of Mallorca. Los Colchoneros stayed in the top four of La Liga but are just a point ahead of Betis. Their latest results reveal that huge efforts have been put in by the Atlético Madrid defense. Atlético Madrid has been miserly, seeing the total number of goals that have gone past their goalkeeper during their previous six outings standing at 4. On the other hand, the home side failed to score in the last two matches, and they need to be more clinical in this one.

Manchester City drew 2:2 in the Premier League match with Liverpool in their last fixture. Although they were closer to victory, the Citizens can be happy with a point that kept them on the top of the Premier League. A series of accomplished showings by the Manchester City defensive players has resulted in their ‘goals against’ tally amounting to 3 from their last six outings overall. Over that same time, their forwards have scored 9. The Citizens are full of confidence ahead of this match, and they want to keep their narrow advantage intact. However, it’s going to be a tough challenge, and they shouldn’t underestimate Atletico Madrid.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction                                                                            

It is going to be another close match, and both sides will be cautious, having in mind the strength of their opponent. However, we believe Manchester City is closer to the victory, and they should return home with a win.

Goals Market Prediction

Atletico has struggled in front of the opposition’s net lately, while the visitors will look forward to remaining disciplined. It will be another tight game that should stay under a 2.5 margin.  

Manchester City to Win @ 1.80

Under 2.5 FT @ 1.80

Correct score 0:2 @ 8.00

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Atletico Madrid vs Manchester City

The second night of Champions League Quarter-Final second legs is coming up on Wednesday night and the first of my two previews is the 8pm BST start between Spanish La Liga side Atletico Madrid and Premier League leaders Manchester City at the Wanda Metropolitano. It's the away team that hold a narrow 1-0 lead from the first leg so this tie is well and truly still hanging in the balance.

Atletico Madrid held out for 70 minutes before Kevin De Bruyne broke the deadlock. Diego Simeone's side suffered a shock 1-0 loss away to Mallorca on the weekend which hasn't helped their preparations for this second leg. It's also worth noting that they also haven't yet managed to win a game at home in this season's Champions League. A 0-0 draw versus Porto was followed up by a 3-2 loss to Liverpool and a 1-0 defeat against AC Milan in the group stage. Atleti were then held to a 1-1 draw against Manchester United in the last 16. It was perhaps worrying that Atletico failed to even register a shot on goal in the first leg but maybe understandable given Simeone's damage limitation approach. Simeone's defensive philosophy has drawn criticism from rival coaches but he's made it clear that he has no plans to change that stance. He may need to if he wants to see his team progress here.

Manchester City know that the job is half done and not completely done. Pep Guardiola's side will be pleased to have sneaked a lead but with away goals not counting it's a shame that the clean sheet doesn't amount to more. The Citizens are facing a tough spell of fixtures with this tie sandwiching the epic 2-2 City played out with title rivals Liverpool on Sunday. What is the mental and physical impact that game will have on City here? It's now 10 wins from the last 12 away games for City including 6 clean sheets from their last 7 away matches. The team is boosted by the potential return of centre back Ruben Dias.

Even though Manchester City narrowly edge this tie, the action on Tuesday night showed that this competition is still full of surprises. Is this the season that City finally go all the way under Guardiola? The exit of Bayern Munich and Chelsea has seen a couple more rivals move aside but this is a big challenge. Atletico could be a victim of their own defensive stability here. Simeone will need to exercise some more courage in his team's attacking convictions but it's a big ask against a City team that will pick their attacks off with ease if they over-commit. On a tactical front, I can't see how Atletico can pull this one back without City causing them some damage of their own.

Manchester City to Win @ 1.81 with SBK

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.84 with SBK

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Liverpool vs Benfica

The final game from the Champions League Quarter-Final second legs is heading our way at 8pm BST when Premier League title contenders Liverpool host Portuguese Primeira Liga club Benfica at Anfield on Wednesday night. The home team hold a solid 3-1 lead from the first leg so you'd think that the tie is in their control but warnings have been sent from the previous games that this might not be done and dusted yet.

Liverpool face their latest gruelling game having previously battled to get the 3-1 win out in Lisbon last week before fighting to earn a 2-2 draw away against Manchester City on the weekend. Jurgen Klopp's side are still on for an unprecedented quadruple but it's going to be tough. Goals from Ibrahima Konate, Sadio Mane, and Luis Diaz have helped put the Reds on the brink of a Semi-Final place but it's not guaranteed yet. Klopp has also stated that his team's upcoming FA Cup Semi-Final clash with Manchester City won't impact his team selection. Liverpool have progressed from their previous 12 Champions League knockout ties when they have won the first leg. It is also 8 wins from the last 9 games played at Anfield with the team winning by a -1 handicap in 6 of those games.

Benfica have been one of the surprise packages of this competition so far but it looks like their run could be coming to an end. Interim head coach Nelson Verissimo knows his team face a mammoth challenge with only 2 teams ever winning by more than one goal away to Liverpool in the knockout stage of the Champions League. However, one of those teams was actually Benfica back in the 2005/06 last 16. Unfortunately, Benfica have won just 1 of their last 9 away games in the Champions League but that single win did come in the previous round in a 1-0 victory over Ajax. One thing that recent games do suggest is that Benfica will score here having done so in each of their last 19 games.

I appreciate that this competition has thrown up enough shocks and twists so far but I think it's realistically job done for Liverpool. Benfica haven't been great away and not only do they need to win here to even just take this tie to extra-time but they need to do so by scoring twice and not conceding. I can't see the miracle happening. Liverpool should seal this with a resounding aggregate win.

Liverpool HT/FT @ 1.86 with SBK

Liverpool to Win & BTTS @ 2.63 with Betfair

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