Villa Chris Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) 1.30 Newcastle Whos In the Box 9.48 Seemingly So 8.92 Speak Of The Devil 8.86 5 points win Whos In The Box 17/2 3.15 Newcastle The Ferry Master 9.56 Mac Tottie 8.48 5 points win The Ferry Master(bog) 2.55 Sandown Darebin 9.7 Katpoli 9.4 5 points win Darebin 17/2 Edited March 7, 2022 by Villa Chris Wrong date alexcaruso808, MCLARKE, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 In a week's time we'll all be scouring the cards & hoping ... to bag a few winners at Sedgefield ? MCLARKE, Doedelzak, kensland and 2 others 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) Fergal O'brien only runner at the meeting worth a punt. Newcastle. 2.05.Barrakhov. 5/1...... 3rd Good luck all. Edited March 8, 2022 by kensland alexcaruso808 and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 Just a question - do the early prices or prices on the morning of the event better reflect market confidence in a certain horse? Maybe it doens't matter? kensland 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 7, 2022 Share Posted March 7, 2022 38 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Just a question - do the early prices or prices on the morning of the event better reflect market confidence in a certain horse? Maybe it doens't matter? Sp is the best indicator of W.O.M / public opinion , The closer to 1.00 the more accurate the market confidence. This leads to the problem of finding EV as you never know what the sp is until the off. Therefore its good practice to price the races up yourself with an achievable profit margin built in (15% ish), the more accurate your pricing is the better chance of making a profit , only then taking a bet on if it is equal to or better than your expected price. kensland, MCLARKE, gbettle and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 55 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Sp is the best indicator of W.O.M / public opinion , The closer to 1.00 the more accurate the market confidence. This leads to the problem of finding EV as you never know what the sp is until the off. Therefore its good practice to price the races up yourself with an achievable profit margin built in (15% ish), the more accurate your pricing is the better chance of making a profit , only then taking a bet on if it is equal to or better than your expected price. Thanks, VT. This is something that I need to consider when I'm trying to rate races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 AW selection Wolverhampton 6.30 KHURUMBI 5/2 Villa Chris, azzybear, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 8 hours ago, kensland said: Fergal O'brien only runner at the meeting worth a punt. Newcastle. 2.05.Barrakhov. 5/1 Good luck all. One of my favourite trainer/jockey combinations . Wildgarden and kensland 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) West To The Bridge looks to be very good value at 4/1 in the 4.05 at Sandown. In cracking form winning two on the bounce going up a total of 11Ibs so far this year. Dan Skelton puts a very useful 7Ibs claimer on board today in Tristan Durrell to offset the rise . The favourite Git Maker looks progressive but needs another big step up today to win this and at 13/8 is worth taking on . Dalamoi seems the one to beat in the 4.40 at Sandown . Ran well last time out finishing second and giving weight away(7Ibs) to a horse now rated 130 . Novice race which I tend to avoid unless something jumps out at me which is the case today with Dalamoi 4/1 5 points win on both selections Day off work today so enjoy your day everyone Edited March 8, 2022 by Villa Chris Wildgarden, MCLARKE and justanotherpunter 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) S. Dixon double. Wolverhampton. 6.30.Banana. 11/2... unpl 7.30.Visibilty. 9/2.... 3rd singles & double Good luck all. Edited March 8, 2022 by kensland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 West To The Bridge now 11/1 ? azzybear and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 9 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: Thanks, VT. This is something that I need to consider when I'm trying to rate races. PAGES 8 to 17 could give you some ideas ATB VT Villa Chris, MCLARKE, alexcaruso808 and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said: PAGES 8 to 17 could give you some ideas ATB VT Nice one, thanks mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azzybear Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 hidden heroics 1.00 kensland and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 19 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 1.30 Newcastle Whos In the Box 9.48 Seemingly So 8.92 Speak Of The Devil 8.86 5 points win Whos In The Box 17/2 3.15 Newcastle The Ferry Master 9.56 Mac Tottie 8.48 5 points win The Ferry Master(bog) 2.55 Sandown Darebin 9.7 Katpoli 9.4 5 points win Darebin 17/2 Utter garbage Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted March 8, 2022 Author Share Posted March 8, 2022 6 hours ago, Villa Chris said: West To The Bridge now 11/1 ? Drifted from 4s to 11s and wins . Had 5 points on at 4s and because it drifted so much had 2.50 points at 11s just in case he won . Don’t tend to bother with hurdles much these days, but nice win. Bang on, Wildgarden, justanotherpunter and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kensland Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) Wolverhampton. Double 5.00.Twilight Tone. 2/1.... 3rd 5.30.Peachey Carnehan. 6/1... 4th singles & double Double. 6.00.Broughtons Peace..... 10/1.... unpl 7.00.Across the Nile. 15/8.... 2nd singles & double Single. 8.00.Carey Street. 10/1.... 2nd Good luck all. Edited March 8, 2022 by kensland Wildgarden and Villa Chris 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannotbebeat Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Wolverhampton 5.30 Divine Connection 2/1 7.00 Across The Nile 7/4 7.30 Civil Law 11/8 8.00 Voltaic 11/4 Good luck all CNBB. kensland and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 On 3/8/2022 at 10:17 AM, Valiant Thor said: could give you some ideas Thanks for that VT, I always enjoyed SmartSig, often a lot of waffle in there but also a few golden nuggets. I was particularly interested in the article by Eric Bowers (he was 74 then in 2004), "Elimination Biases For Sprint Races". He had a thesis that he was going to pass on to his grandchildren but they didn't show any interest so he decided to pass it on to his fellow readers. The basic premise was to award points based on weight and forecast odds, the higher the weight and the shorter the odds the better. It took him 3 minutes 47 seconds to analyse 1 race. With the beauty of Excel I have been able to analyse 438 races in less than an hour. I was surprised how good the results were. The top 50% in each race generated 1,751 winners from 17,300 runners with a BSP profit of 1,393 points. The AE is 1.05. If I take the top 12% from each race the results are 467 winners fom 3,138 runners with a BSP of 1,264 points. The AE is a very impressive 1.28. Perhaps he had found the holy grail ! gbettle, Wildgarden, alexcaruso808 and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 @MCLARKE this is interesting. With the premise being short forecast odds and a high weight, would it then be essential to make an early bet in order to get the best price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 58 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: @MCLARKE this is interesting. With the premise being short forecast odds and a high weight, would it then be essential to make an early bet in order to get the best price? bsp so its betfair starting price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 hour ago, MCLARKE said: Thanks for that VT, I always enjoyed SmartSig, often a lot of waffle in there but also a few golden nuggets. I was particularly interested in the article by Eric Bowers (he was 74 then in 2004), "Elimination Biases For Sprint Races". He had a thesis that he was going to pass on to his grandchildren but they didn't show any interest so he decided to pass it on to his fellow readers. The basic premise was to award points based on weight and forecast odds, the higher the weight and the shorter the odds the better. It took him 3 minutes 47 seconds to analyse 1 race. With the beauty of Excel I have been able to analyse 438 races in less than an hour. I was surprised how good the results were. The top 50% in each race generated 1,751 winners from 17,300 runners with a BSP profit of 1,393 points. The AE is 1.05. If I take the top 12% from each race the results are 467 winners fom 3,138 runners with a BSP of 1,264 points. The AE is a very impressive 1.28. Perhaps he had found the holy grail ! how does he award points is this in the article? sprints so up to 7.5f? this turf and allweather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 55 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: how does he award points is this in the article? sprints so up to 7.5f? this turf and allweather? He used linear weighting, using the %age win chance of the weight carried by the runners as a rating gbettle and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: He used linear weighting, using the %age win chance of the weight carried by the runners as a rating anything easy thats available than trying to duplicate? could tie in with ratings see if improves performance / can u provide example never done this myself Edited March 9, 2022 by Wildgarden Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: anything easy thats available than trying to duplicate? could tie in with ratings see if improves performance / can u provide example never done this myself OR is a weighting method in handicaps ,in flat racing there should be a 14lb difference between top/bottom weight anything over 14lb is out of the handicap. ***THIS IS ONLY AN EXAMPLE OF LINEAR WEIGHTING AND NOT THE CORRECT WIN RATIOS*** Say top OR wins 33% of its races .. so 0 = 33% 1lb less wins 28% of its races so -1 = 28% Etc Etc If you take the top weight as 0 then -1 every lb below top weight provides your rating anything greater than -14 is out of the hcp so classed as -14 the win % gives you your expected break even price Take Todays 5.30 @ Kemp The above Its pretty self explanatory . the red circled number on the top row is the sum of the win%'s which should then be divided into the win % of each horse to make overall % of all runners to1. 1 would then be divided by the new %'s to give the Min Odds Divide the min odds by 1+your REALISTIC profit margin Range (mim/max) and there is the price you should be looking for IE Arousing .33/1.03 = .32 = MIN Odds =3.12 if your min req edge is 15% then you would multiply 3.12* 1.15 =3.58 so anything above 3.58 would give you your required profit as it happens it won @ 4.00 happy days All you need to do is find the correct Win% per pound for each rating and there you have it ATB VT Edited March 9, 2022 by Valiant Thor wrong price alexcaruso808, MCLARKE, Wildgarden and 1 other 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Wildgarden said: how does he award points is this in the article? sprints so up to 7.5f? this turf and allweather? I think it was fairly straightforward. Top weight was 0 points and you then add on the number of pounds below the top weight. The analysis was for the flat seasons 2014 to 2020, May to October, excludes 2yo, GB only. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) This is the quick way how Bowers would reduced a race down to half the field Edited March 9, 2022 by Valiant Thor MCLARKE, alexcaruso808, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 6 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Thanks for that VT, I always enjoyed SmartSig, often a lot of waffle in there but also a few golden nuggets. I was particularly interested in the article by Eric Bowers (he was 74 then in 2004), "Elimination Biases For Sprint Races". He had a thesis that he was going to pass on to his grandchildren but they didn't show any interest so he decided to pass it on to his fellow readers. The basic premise was to award points based on weight and forecast odds, the higher the weight and the shorter the odds the better. It took him 3 minutes 47 seconds to analyse 1 race. With the beauty of Excel I have been able to analyse 438 races in less than an hour. I was surprised how good the results were. The top 50% in each race generated 1,751 winners from 17,300 runners with a BSP profit of 1,393 points. The AE is 1.05. If I take the top 12% from each race the results are 467 winners fom 3,138 runners with a BSP of 1,264 points. The AE is a very impressive 1.28. Perhaps he had found the holy grail ! how do you mean top 12% in what way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 This means the top 12% in any given race. So in a 10 runner race the top rated would be 1/10 = 10% andwould qualify, in a 11 runner race the top rated would be 1/11 = 9% and would qualify. So in larger fields there will be more than 1 qualifier, e.g. in a 28 runner handicap such as the Wokingham at Ascot the top rated would be 1/28 = 4%, the 2nd top rated will be 2/28 = 7% and the 3rd top rated will be 3/28 = 11%. All 3 will qualify. gbettle, alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: This means the top 12% in any given race. So in a 10 runner race the top rated would be 1/10 = 10% andwould qualify, in a 11 runner race the top rated would be 1/11 = 9% and would qualify. So in larger fields there will be more than 1 qualifier, e.g. in a 28 runner handicap such as the Wokingham at Ascot the top rated would be 1/28 = 4%, the 2nd top rated will be 2/28 = 7% and the 3rd top rated will be 3/28 = 11%. All 3 will qualify. ye see what you mean now. very interesting stuff worth a play. paper trade if could help existing ratings be even more profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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