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Tennis Tips - March 21 - March 27


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37 minutes ago, Lorenzi Musetti said:

I like Musetti too, because Popyrin lost his Mojo and is 3-10 ...his serve is and he is out of ...Altmaier played a good Challenger in Phoenix and he served pretty well there. This can be closer than the odds suggests and it wouldnt be a suprise if Altmaier won tonight. Maybe Over Games is an option or Altmaier to take a set. I will skip this one but i'm on Musetti...

 

took wolf to take a set , I liked what he did against agut alot in IW and for americans I feel that the home cowds are a big boost.

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Looking at a couple of upsets.

I don't think Fucsovic beats Giron.   Giron with two solid wins recently, beating Fritz and Carreno-Busta. A perfect matchup for a grinder like Giron here.

Sabalenka to lose to Begu. Sabalenka coming off plenty of unexpected losses. Juvan, Peterson, Kanepi, Paolini to mention a few. Untouchable at the price of 1.36.

Osaka v Kerber. Kerber is a bit of a freak. She can take long, extended breaks and come back and be match sharp. I wouldn't bet a cent on Osaka, who is just so brittle, especially against such a canny opponent.  

 

 

I also like Bronzetti to beat Giorgi. Giorgi is just plan A, and if it doesn't work, it's done and dusted. Bronzetti, with an upset win yesterday.

I think Bencic beats Kostyuk. Bencic with an early round loss two weeks ago, will want to stick around a little longer. For me Kostyuk has got such game, but she wants to blast every ball. So 1 dimensional at the moment. 

Watched Riske beat Tiechmann yesterday. Tiechmann blew herself up, and had plenty of chances, but Americans, on home soil are comfortable and do well. Riske to beat COrnet. Cornet had a freakish Aussie open, but has been hammered in almost every match since. St. Petersburg (Mertens), Qatar (Sabalenka), Lyon (Bucsa),, Indian Wells (Kalinskaya). Cornet struggling, dropping serve and not playing well. She has enough money, and seeing Barty retiring, will pretty much make her mind up. Definitely last season, and motivation is dropping...

$18200 for a 1st round loss is a nice weeks work,... win a match it's $30130 which also works.

Edited by neilovan
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A little unfortunate yesterday after the good start, with Koepfer failing to win from multiple good positions and Flipkens losing in three - although it has to be said Golubic was much the better player. The less said about Carballes Baena the better, he didn't put up much resistance at all against an opponent low on confidence which was disappointing. On to today then and I'm backing four more dogs, two men and two women.

First of all I'm backing Bedene to beat Humbert. Remarkably, Humbert hasn't won a single match since he beat Medvedev at the start of the season and with form like that I can't see why he's such a strong favourite here. Granted Bedene is returning from injury and has only played one match since coming back which he lost, but in that match his level improved towards the end and if he can improve some more I think he can win this against an opponent who must be lacking in confidence right now. I'm also going to back Davidovich Fokina to beat Korda. These aren't the fastest courts in the world and that will help him against an opponent who I still don't really trust when it comes to holding serve. Obviously Korda nearly beat Nadal in his last match, but prior to Indian Wells he'd lost two out of three matches and the win was in three sets in Davis Cup against Mejia which is hardly impressive.

For the Women I'll be backing Muchova to beat Fernandez. She's a very capable player and like Bedene, she's returning from injury. She made a good start here by beating Martincova in straight sets and as talented as Fernandez is she's been pretty erratic this season, save for defending her title in Monterrey. I'm not sure she's as good as her ranking yet whereas Muchova is a proven player and if she can take the momentum of her first round win forward she can win this. My last pick is speculative and so only for a small stake, but I think Li is underrated against Kontaveit. I think she's got plenty of talent and should be able to progress up the rankings this season and if she's to do that she'll need to pick up the occasional shock win. Kontaveit's form during the last year is well known, but it's very difficult to sustain and she's lost two of her last three matches.

20pts Bedene to beat Humbert @ 3.40 365

15pts Davidovich Fokina to beat Korda @ 3.00 Victor

10pts Muchova to beat Fernandez @ 3.00 365

5pts Li to beat Kontaveit @ 4.50 365

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Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Jordan Thompson - Total Number of TBs in the match - Over 0.5 @1.83 with bet365 

I just think we'll see at least one breaker on this one. Wouldn't be surprised if the odds were shorter so I'm gonna chase the tie-break here.

[Over 1.5 TBs in the match is at 7(!). I'm chasing this one as well].

Edited by Foo_Fighter
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Strange woman's results  ...  Kontaveit losing losing to Li, and some expected oddities (Sabalenka and Raducanu) greet the dawn.  Kontaveit looks exhausted. Probably needs 4 weeks off, just to chill and recharge. Anyone who really gets their act together could win 2 or 3 majors this year. Swaitek probably the most consistent of the lot. 

The tennis circuit is just tough, especially starting off slowly. Case in point Clara Burel. 21, world junior #1, obviously with huge pedigree. But against the pro's it's a slow start. She has now lost 8 of her last 10 matches, on trips to Canada, Chicago, New York, Melbourne, California and Miami. Cranking up air miles while going moggy for 8 hours.  So important to have the right team around, because it's easy to get down and demotivated. She plays Petra Kvitova.  I can't see her winning here.  Last 4 matches have been better, but she is losing sets badly (6-1, 6-2 etc).  Also, her record against top 50 ranked players is played 8 lost 8.

 I think Paula Badosa could lose today against Marie Bouzkova, Bouzkova, who is on a serious winning streak. Won 2 qualifiers (both 3 sets) with a demolition of Siegmund 1 and 2. in the main draw.  Also won 7 of her last 9 main draw matches prior to this tournament, so she is doing very well. 2 of those loses came against big servers (Rybakina and Kanepi), which is something Badosa is not. Bouzkova with a good chance here.

I do like Samsonova and Vondrousova both to win today.  Samsonova plays Brengle, who has just lost a ton of sets 6-0 recently. It shows no confidence, and a serve that is struggling. Brengle hovering around the 65 ranking, but Samsonova has come down from 130 to about 35 or so.

Vondrousova plays Putintseva. SHe has been playing well and has a good start to 2022. Left handed, with a very solid forehand, is gonna give people a lot of problems, and will get better and better.

In the men's I don't see much that interests me. Dimitrov plays McDonald and I think he could lose. Losses to Kozlov, Paire, Millman and Cressey show that Gregor is very vulnerable. Also, the American player will feel quite comfortable and at home, and will have the crowd. He also comes into this with some decent wins.

Happy to take Kvitova and Vondrousova as a double.

Will take Bouzkova and Rybakina as a double.

McDonald and Samsonova as a double.

I don't really like taking 2 longshot outsiders in one bet. Hard for 1 of them to win, and very difficult for both. It's annoying when one tough leg wins, and it blows up in the other. My feeling is to take a longshot, with a solid favorite.

Edited by neilovan
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4 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

opinions on kyrgios rublev ? I d say an ove ron games is the way to go easily, but I ve seen that kyrgios had some leg problem against mannarino ? then again the guy seems to be injured in literally every match of his.

It's so hard to guess what might happen when Kyrgios is involved. If he's motivated he can win, if he isn't he could lose easily and as you say there's the spectre of injury seemingly hanging over him all the time. It's not a match I want to get involved in and I'll just be watching because it could be a really good contest.

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23 hours ago, Torque said:

20pts Bedene to beat Humbert @ 3.40 365

15pts Davidovich Fokina to beat Korda @ 3.00 Victor

10pts Muchova to beat Fernandez @ 3.00 365

5pts Li to beat Kontaveit @ 4.50 365

It didn't look good after Bedene lost in three sets to Humbert and then Davidovich Fokina was nowhere against Korda, but the day was salvaged by Muchova winning and Li beating Kontaveit. It looked at one stage as though Muchova was going to be taken the distance after failing to serve out her match and then going behind in the tie-break that followed, but she was able to get the win in straight sets. I'm not sure she'd have won if it had gone to three. Nobody would have expected Li to bagel Kontaveit in the first set of their match, but what was probably more predictable was that Kontaveit came back to win the second set. The third set could have gone either way but fortunately Li got the win and that saw me make a profit on the day.

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18 minutes ago, Torque said:

It didn't look good after Bedene lost in three sets to Humbert and then Davidovich Fokina was nowhere against Korda, but the day was salvaged by Muchova winning and Li beating Kontaveit. It looked at one stage as though Muchova was going to be taken the distance after failing to serve out her match and then going behind in the tie-break that followed, but she was able to get the win in straight sets. I'm not sure she'd have won if it had gone to three. Nobody would have expected Li to bagel Kontaveit in the first set of their match, but what was probably more predictable was that Kontaveit came back to win the second set. The third set could have gone either way but fortunately Li got the win and that saw me make a profit on the day.

Anything for today master?

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2 hours ago, andrei senna said:

Anything for today master?

No @andrei senna there's nothing I really like. If pushed I might back Stephens and Kokkinakis. I'm no master by the way, I lose plenty and I get plenty wrong when trying to assess how matches might go. What I try to do is get things right slightly more than I get them wrong.

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13 hours ago, neilovan said:

 

I do like Samsonova and Vondrousova both to win today.  Samsonova plays Brengle, who has just lost a ton of sets 6-0 recently. It shows no confidence, and a serve that is struggling. Brengle hovering around the 65 ranking, but Samsonova has come down from 130 to about 35 or so.

 

McDonald and Samsonova as a double.

 

What a joke. Samsonova 4-4 1st set and basically disintegrates, losing the next 8 games and the match 4-6 0-6. 2nd set she must have won 6 points. Sometimes (mostly), woman's tennis just remains a combination of joke/mystery to me.

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Mackenzie McDonald (+1.5 sets) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.55 with bet365

Brandon Nakashima (+1.5 sets) to beat Frances Tiafoe at 1.3 with bet365

Wesley Koolhof/Neal Skupski to beat Lloyd Harris/Matwe Middelkoop at 1.4 with bet365

 

Good luck folks. ?

I made a post about NCAA March Madness, here's the link if you guys wanna try your luck in some basketball as well. 

https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/179955-ncaa-march-madness/?do=findComment&comment=2896319

Edited by Foo_Fighter
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Just a strange day. Vondrousova no result.  Strange combo losses and Samsonova blowup just took my profit.

Been a very inconsistent tournament on the woman's side. It's odd because it's not the 1st tourn in USA. Players should have adjusted. Men's results have been far more consistent.

Thought MacDonald was very good against Dimitrov. What an outfit, blue shoes, orange shorts and emerald top. Did he get dressed in the dark? What a stinker color scheme.

Cant really fault Dimitrov, he just got blasted out by a very strong opponent. His game is just not gonna hold up as the opponent quality gets better. 

 

 

 

Edited by neilovan
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3 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

1.55 (McDonald +1.5 sets), 1.4 (Koolhof/Skupski), 1.3 (Nakashima +1.5 sets) all coming in. ?

What's even more impressive is that both 7.5 (St. Peter's Peacocks win) and 2.7 (+8.5 pts game handicap) are coming in as well. I hope at least one of you folks followed me.

yeah I had the makie mcdonalds one, easy work

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Tommy Paul over Khachanov. Khachanov ran into a buzz saw in Brooksby in Indian Wells. Probably one of his worst matches and beatings in a while. So it's been almost 2 weeks waiting for his next competitive match. It's a lot of sitting around, practice and killing time, and it's not great for a pro athlete.  Tommy Paul on a pretty decent run in 2022. Won 11 of last 17 matches and getting past the 1st match in each of his last 6 tournaments. Khachanov may just come out a little flat here and get blasted away by a home boy, crowd favorite.

Someone who is playing very well is Pedro Martinez. I dunno when, but I saw him on TV in an indoor event last year (somewhere in Europe), and he looked so good. Great movement, and rock solid ball striking. Perfect matchup for him with Giron's grinder style.

I would be betting against almost all the time is Karatsev. Had a crazy year last year, but I think he has overplayed, and opponents are figuring him out. Only problem is that Humbert, is on a stinker of a run. Will still back Humbert, but just 1/2 of an already small stake. Maybe games over 22.5

My feeling is that Shapavalov get's beaten by Harris. Harris is actually a decent player. Had a terrible start to 2022, but you don't forget how to play in a couple of months. I just don't like Shapa's 1 handed huge swinging backhand. Looks good, but when it goes off, there is no quick fix. At some stage the real Harris will show up, and he will be hard tobeat behind a really tricky serve.

My last upset is Kecmnovic to beat Auger Aliasimme. I just don't rate Felix. Look, he's a fantastic player, but he seems like a male version of Camilia Giorgi to me. Has talent, but a little one dimensional, and wants to hit the cover off the ball. Zverev and Auger-Aliasimme very similar to me. Look good, but are not great thinkers on the court. Kecmanovic, only 22, is a very good player. Had a great Indian Wells beating Broady,Cilic, van de Zandschulp and Berrettini, losing in 3 to eventual tournament winner (Fritz).

Brooksyby over Basilasvili and Fritz over Kukushkin, and Alcaraz over CIlic just a low priced treble for me.

Edited by neilovan
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There's only one I like today, starting soon, and that's Paul to beat Khachanov. He struggled a little bit in the last round but still came through in straight sets, overturning a break deficit in both. That suggests his returning is on point, and it'll need to be against a strong server in Khachanov. However, Khachanov comes here off the back of a demoralising defeat in Indian Wells, where he only won three games and got a bagel in a straight sets loss to Brooksby. That alone is enough for me to want to back Paul, because although today is another day a beatdown like the one Khachanov just took can be hard to just shake off.

25pts Paul to beat Khachanov @ 2.10 365

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If Paul does go on to lose, it's key point performance that's done for him - 2 out of 5 break points saved and 3 out of 13 converted. You'd expect Khachanov to do well saving break points, but he's fairly limited on return so those break points saved numbers from Paul are pretty grim.

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7 hours ago, neilovan said:

Tommy Paul over Khachanov. Khachanov ran into a buzz saw in Brooksby in Indian Wells. Probably one of his worst matches and beatings in a while. So it's been almost 2 weeks waiting for his next competitive match. It's a lot of sitting around, practice and killing time, and it's not great for a pro athlete.  Tommy Paul on a pretty decent run in 2022. Won 11 of last 17 matches and getting past the 1st match in each of his last 6 tournaments. Khachanov may just come out a little flat here and get blasted away by a home boy, crowd favorite.

Someone who is playing very well is Pedro Martinez. I dunno when, but I saw him on TV in an indoor event last year (somewhere in Europe), and he looked so good. Great movement, and rock solid ball striking. Perfect matchup for him with Giron's grinder style.

I would be betting against almost all the time is Karatsev. Had a crazy year last year, but I think he has overplayed, and opponents are figuring him out. Only problem is that Humbert, is on a stinker of a run. Will still back Humbert, but just 1/2 of an already small stake. Maybe games over 22.5

My feeling is that Shapavalov get's beaten by Harris. Harris is actually a decent player. Had a terrible start to 2022, but you don't forget how to play in a couple of months. I just don't like Shapa's 1 handed huge swinging backhand. Looks good, but when it goes off, there is no quick fix. At some stage the real Harris will show up, and he will be hard tobeat behind a really tricky serve.

My last upset is Kecmnovic to beat Auger Aliasimme. I just don't rate Felix. Look, he's a fantastic player, but he seems like a male version of Camilia Giorgi to me. Has talent, but a little one dimensional, and wants to hit the cover off the ball. Zverev and Auger-Aliasimme very similar to me. Look good, but are not great thinkers on the court. Kecmanovic, only 22, is a very good player. Had a great Indian Wells beating Broady,Cilic, van de Zandschulp and Berrettini, losing in 3 to eventual tournament winner (Fritz).

Brooksyby over Basilasvili and Fritz over Kukushkin, and Alcaraz over CIlic just a low priced treble for me.

Martinez over Giron ?

Alacaraz over Cilic ?

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56 minutes ago, LOVETENNIS said:

Martinez over Giron ?

Alacaraz over Cilic ?

Lol, sometimes I make mistakes. English is not my 1st language (or 2nd either).

Probably means 'win over' , but not that difficult to figure out.  As for a few typo's what can I say. Use some common sense if possible?

For those that got confused by Alacaraz, I didn't mean Shapavalov. 

I feel sorry for you...

Edited by neilovan
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3 hours ago, Torque said:

25pts Paul to beat Khachanov @ 2.10 365

Worked out in the end but Paul made harder work of that than he should have after making a strong start and winning the first set. In the decider he had 0-40 but didn't convert, then another 0-40 which he converted to 30 only to be broken when serving for the match and then another 0-40 that he couldn't convert and which saw three match points come and go. Then he got ahead in the tie-breaker but gave the advantage back before finally stretching away from Khachanov and getting the win. If he had lost he couldn't have had many complaints having had so many chances.

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1 minute ago, Torque said:

Worked out in the end but Paul made harder work of that than he should have after making a strong start and winning the first set. In the decider he had 0-40 but didn't convert, then another 0-40 which he converted to 30 only to be broken when serving for the match and then another 0-40 that he couldn't convert and which saw three match points come and go. Then he got ahead in the tie-breaker but gave the advantage back before finally stretching away from Khachanov and getting the win. If he had lost he couldn't have had many complaints having had so many chances.

Losing in a previous tournament as a 1st round favorite and 1st match in a new country are definitely correlated to win rate.

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10 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Lol, sometimes I make mistakes. English is not my 1st language (or 2nd either).

Probably means 'win over' , but not that difficult to figure out.  

I feel sorry for you...

I read it as 'win over' - I'm pretty sure I've used 'Player A' over 'Player B' before and I've meant win myself. Perhaps @LOVETENNIS read it as over in terms of 'over games'

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