NOTEBOOK HORSES 2022

[calva decoy]

On 5/26/2022 at 2:11 PM, calva decoy said:

NOVEL LEGEND :

Finished 6th in hot 3 year old race over 11.5f at Yarmouth on good & was well behind Gosden's Baltic Bird who won well .

Is out of Nathaniel & will definitely be better for a bit further & was doing best work at the business end even with a 50/1 sp .

J.Fanshawe trains , another who likes to bring them on slowly but in the tracker for the next 3 runs .

 

 

Runs at Nottingham in the 2.30 & is 20/1 across the board & drifting .

Has been gelded since last run & is down 1.5f in trip but I expect another hands & heels midfield run & then next week an opening handicap mark of mid to late 50's before being stepped up to 12f on fourth run & becoming competitive .

Edited August 3, 2022 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Runs at Nottingham in the 2.30 & is 20/1 across the board & drifting .

Has been gelded since last run & is down 1.5f in trip but I expect another hands & heels midfield run & then next week an opening handicap mark of mid to late 50's before being stepped up to 12f on fourth run & becoming competitive .

I like the Fanshawe horses tricky to know when to back them but drifting price wouldn't put me off.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Runs at Nottingham in the 2.30 & is 20/1 across the board & drifting .

Has been gelded since last run & is down 1.5f in trip but I expect another hands & heels midfield run & then next week an opening handicap mark of mid to late 50's before being stepped up to 12f on fourth run & becoming competitive .

Just reading a book by John Gibby (Well-Handicapped Horses) which is quite heavy going but basically looks at horses who often run over inadequate distance and going for the 1st 3 runs to achieve a low handicap rating. They are then run over their ideal trip.

This sounds like such a horse.

[Zilzalian]

10 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Just reading a book by John Gibby (Well-Handicapped Horses) which is quite heavy going but basically looks at horses who often run over inadequate distance and going for the 1st 3 runs to achieve a low handicap rating. They are then run over their ideal trip.

This sounds like such a horse.

Don't think your far wrong @MCLARKE Fanshawe is defo one of those but springs a surprise now and again (wandering rocks 16/1 last saturday). Worst culprit is Prescott i suppose. Charlton not far behind. "one for handicaps down the line" is the usual write up.

[calva decoy]

45 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Just reading a book by John Gibby (Well-Handicapped Horses) which is quite heavy going but basically looks at horses who often run over inadequate distance and going for the 1st 3 runs to achieve a low handicap rating. They are then run over their ideal trip.

This sounds like such a horse.

Prescott is the master of this , runs them over 7/8f then get opening handicap mark & chucks em in at 14f but bookies are wise to this now .

Fanshawe like a lot of Newmarket trainers just educate their horses first 3 runs whereas Mark Johnston Richard Fahey have theirs well readied for debut wins & then put claimers on to negate the win allowance next time out so as to go back to back .

 

Dodgy stuff this horse racing lark ?

[Zilzalian]

14 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Prescott is the master of this , runs them over 7/8f then get opening handicap mark & chucks em in at 14f but bookies are wise to this now .

Fanshawe like a lot of Newmarket trainers just educate their horses first 3 runs whereas Mark Johnston Richard Fahey have theirs well readied for debut wins & then put claimers on to negate the win allowance next time out so as to go back to back .

 

Dodgy stuff this horse racing lark ?

Im quite fancying your novel legend value at around 20/1

[calva decoy]

11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Im quite fancying your novel legend value at around 20/1

14's best price now , god knows why as he was staying on over 11.5f last time out & is now back at the scene of his debut & back to 10f where he ran out of steam which is why being out of Nathaniel ( better sire of Fillies ) 12f is the optimum trip & better class of horse running against last time out at Yarmouth whereas Nottingham debut on Crisfords West Wind Blows has done anything , STAR LEGEND in same silks on debut could be a good thing , Son of Galileo & Haggas trained .

[Zilzalian]

38 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

14's best price now , god knows why as he was staying on over 11.5f last time out & is now back at the scene of his debut & back to 10f where he ran out of steam which is why being out of Nathaniel ( better sire of Fillies ) 12f is the optimum trip & better class of horse running against last time out at Yarmouth whereas Nottingham debut on Crisfords West Wind Blows has done anything , STAR LEGEND in same silks on debut could be a good thing , Son of Galileo & Haggas trained .

9/1 now on bet365, glad i took the 20's last night but it still has to win even if it ended up evens.

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

9/1 now on bet365, glad i took the 20's last night but it still has to win even if it ended up evens.

5/1 now this will be quite interesting i think. @calva decoy your initial instinct over a price barrier meaning has/did the price put you off? i know you were concerned about the trip but if you have a notebook horse and dont back it and it wins the cats in for a hard time.

[Zilzalian]

12 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

5/1 now this will be quite interesting i think. @calva decoy your initial instinct over a price barrier meaning has/did the price put you off? i know you were concerned about the trip but if you have a notebook horse and dont back it and it wins the cats in for a hard time.

7/2 at the off came plumb last didnt seem like it was ever put in the race, be interesting to see what happens going forward.

[Zilzalian]

[Zilzalian]

Just now, Zilzalian said:

Going to give Enemy (already backed at 20/1 anti post 16/1 still available) a shout in the Ebor, it ran in a G1 latest and the suspicion is that its previous runs were "handicap related"

[calva decoy]

17 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

7/2 at the off came plumb last didnt seem like it was ever put in the race, be interesting to see what happens going forward.

Brilliant ride & perfect tactics , not a 10f horse it'll be interesting to see what opening handicap mark he gets next Tuesday I think & then if he gets put into his optimum 12f trip & at double figure price with a lowly late 50's mark will be worth a bob or two albeit why he's gone from 22's last night down to 7/2 is baffling ?

[calva decoy]

On 7/2/2022 at 6:24 PM, calva decoy said:

ENSHRINE runs on Sunday July 3rd on Chelmsford's all weather for the in form W.Haggas team .

Is stepped up in trip but made heavy work of the win 48 days ago , is around 6/4 but I feel a drift coming on so will look at price tomorrow . 

2nd at sp of 5/6 beaten by a 22/1 debutant .

She'll get a handicap mark on Tuesday & being a filly out of Ulysses may not see the best of her until end of summer & over 12f , one more run left in the tracker , I'll be glad to see the back of her !

ENSHRINE makes her handicap debut Thursday at Salisbury in the 5.15 , best priced 5/4 with bet365 already odds on every other bookie .

She has an opening mark of 80 , wears cheekpieces for the first time & in my opinion being out of Ulysses is running over her optimum trip of 12f .

Way too short to have a bet & I think this is the last of my 3 tracker runs with her which has seen two 2nd's & a win but way too shorter odds , some you win , some you don't !

Edited August 10, 2022 by calva decoy

[calva decoy]

22 hours ago, calva decoy said:

ENSHRINE makes her handicap debut Thursday at Salisbury in the 5.15 , best priced 5/4 with bet365 already odds on every other bookie .

She has an opening mark of 80 , wears cheekpieces for the first time & in my opinion being out of Ulysses is running over her optimum trip of 12f .

Way too short to have a bet & I think this is the last of my 3 tracker runs with her which has seen two 2nd's & a win but way too shorter odds , some you win , some you don't !

3rd of 4 beaten around 3.5L though reckon she stands a good chance in the 2024/25 Champion Bumper ? 

 

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

3rd of 4 beaten around 3.5L though reckon she stands a good chance in the 2024/25 Champion Bumper ? 

 

i dare say we will "notebook" a few of those types @calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

Katey Kontent very disapointing one more go as long as it is a decent price.

[Zilzalian]

watched a good 2yo horse win hands and heels on debut at hoppegarten Peter Shiergan trained GRANADA probably be hard to track this one but looked impressive.

[calva decoy]

On 5/26/2022 at 1:50 PM, calva decoy said:

SHAHBAZ :

Has just finished 4th on debut at Yarmouth over 7f on good chasing home 2 Godolphin & a Gosden type & was doing best work at the business end .

He is out of Free Eagle so an extra 1-3f would suit but definitely outran the 33/1 sp .

Note of caution , C.Fellowes like a lot of Newmarket trainers like to take their time with novices so may not see the best of this until 4th run but in the tracker for next 3 runs ?

 

Has finished 4th & the 2nd with the 4th horse from the last run has since came out & won so in the last run for my tracker I'll have a few bob on SHAHBAZ at 11/4 in the 5.10 at Chelmsford Tuesday 16th .

5th beaten 5.75L , will get opening handicap mark on Tuesday & will most probably be running over 8-10f next time out proper trip , I've got 1 go left in tracker & as specified before with the some of the Newmarket trainers it's all about getting a low handicap mark before then showing improvement & or running at optimum distances.

Edited August 16, 2022 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Has finished 4th & the 2nd with the 4th horse from the last run has since came out & won so in the last run for my tracker I'll have a few bob on SHAHBAZ at 11/4 in the 5.10 at Chelmsford Tuesday 16th .

notebook - Harrys bar won again today @10/3 dundalk thats 3 from 6 but only once from first 3 makes you wonder i supposed

Enemy at 16/1 is down to run at york 225 the lonsdale (worth 142k) friday over 2m (g2) against g1 horses i cant work out why williams thinks enemy can beat that field which includes trueshan and stradavarius and quickthorn . surely that must be a (just in case it cuts up) option.

the race i noted it from (maydan) was 14F so I think its best option must be the ebor (25/1) for double the money (£300k) I have already backed it last month for the ebor antipost @ 20/1 (just shows early is not always good). bit of a dilema now, i want to go in again at 25/1 got looking at its last 3 runs all at 2m one of them a G1 i smell something fishy, i suspect a layout by williams here.

Any thoughts? what would do? you go G2 or handicap if you trained it. Trying to convince myself its a shoo in for the ebor.

[calva decoy]

57 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

notebook - Harrys bar won again today @10/3 dundalk thats 3 from 6 but only once from first 3 makes you wonder i supposed

Enemy at 16/1 is down to run at york 225 the lonsdale (worth 142k) friday over 2m (g2) against g1 horses i cant work out why williams thinks enemy can beat that field which includes trueshan and stradavarius and quickthorn . surely that must be a (just in case it cuts up) option.

the race i noted it from (maydan) was 14F so I think its best option must be the ebor (25/1) for double the money (£300k) I have already backed it last month for the ebor antipost @ 20/1 (just shows early is not always good). bit of a dilema now, i want to go in again at 25/1 got looking at its last 3 runs all at 2m one of them a G1 i smell something fishy, i suspect a layout by williams here.

Any thoughts? what would do? you go G2 or handicap if you trained it. Trying to convince myself its a shoo in for the ebor.

Not looked at the Friday race but Williams has Alfred Boucher entered in The Ebor as well but ENEMY is rated around 12Lb higher , one I have just noticed in The Ebor without many miles on the clock & if & only if it cuts up soft / heavy is Jason The Militant but some a class mixture of flat stayers & good 16f hurdlers , I'm more interested in James Ferguson's horse in the 4.10 on Saturday but differently , only if it's good / good to firm .

Good luck with ENEMY if gets a run .

[Zilzalian]

24 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Not looked at the Friday race but Williams has Alfred Boucher entered in The Ebor as well but ENEMY is rated around 12Lb higher , one I have just noticed in The Ebor without many miles on the clock & if & only if it cuts up soft / heavy is Jason The Militant but some a class mixture of flat stayers & good 16f hurdlers , I'm more interested in James Ferguson's horse in the 4.10 on Saturday but differently , only if it's good / good to firm .

Good luck with ENEMY if gets a run .

yes i looked lomg and hard at alfred boucher/williams especially its run behind soapy stevens over 2 miles im hoping/gambling that 9 wont come out but if they do that will be my saver. 

i am assuming you mean first folio (CD) on the saturday 410 if so i have it in my shortlist of 5 at the moment but may well pass on the race altogether. it looks a real pin sticker at the mo and for me a low draw is essential on g/f ground.
so good luck with yours.

[Zilzalian]

@calva decoynot sure if this wasnt the best conversation i have ever had on here ? i didnt put more on Enemy, what i did was put 20quid win double alfred boucher for today and enemy for the ebor 10/1 and 25/1 fingers crossed lol

[calva decoy]

On 5/26/2022 at 2:11 PM, calva decoy said:

NOVEL LEGEND :

Finished 6th in hot 3 year old race over 11.5f at Yarmouth on good & was well behind Gosden's Baltic Bird who won well .

Is out of Nathaniel & will definitely be better for a bit further & was doing best work at the business end even with a 50/1 sp .

J.Fanshawe trains , another who likes to bring them on slowly but in the tracker for the next 3 runs .

 

 

Has an opening mark of 77 ( bit high ) & runs over 12f in Newbury's 3.20 on Friday 19th , best price available 12/1 bet365 , bit of each way for me .

[calva decoy]

On 8/17/2022 at 4:23 PM, Zilzalian said:

@calva decoynot sure if this wasnt the best conversation i have ever had on here ? i didnt put more on Enemy, what i did was put 20quid win double alfred boucher for today and enemy for the ebor 10/1 and 25/1 fingers crossed lol

I backed ALFRED BOUCHER & PETERBOROUGH if you look on Thursday's daily chat , nice returns for me as I try & double my cash rather than go all captain glory , good luck with ENEMY ?

Edited August 18, 2022 by calva decoy

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Has an opening mark of 77 ( bit high ) & runs over 12f in Newbury's 3.20 on Friday 19th , best price available 12/1 bet365 , bit of each way for me .

Have it in my daily lucky15 as i selectivly follow Fanshawe, Tashkran @kroni notebook gg also out tomoz, I agree that big market move lto on Novel has influenced the h/capper i think and he has over reacted a bit.

[calva decoy]

20 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Has an opening mark of 77 ( bit high ) & runs over 12f in Newbury's 3.20 on Friday 19th , best price available 12/1 bet365 , bit of each way for me .

Finished 2nd at 17/2 though still a bit green , bit of juice in the going & back at 12f next run & could be gracing the winners enclosure as long as the handicapper doesn't bang more than a 1Lb on on Tuesday .

[Zilzalian]

20 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Finished 2nd at 17/2 though still a bit green , bit of juice in the going & back at 12f next run & could be gracing the winners enclosure as long as the handicapper doesn't bang more than a 1Lb on on Tuesday .

took 14/1 this morning ran well enough to keep in mind going forward, Fanshawe will win a decent prize with it i have no doubt.

[Zilzalian]

Potapova 18/1 wins a group 3 on its 4th start  fortunitely i stuck with it.

[kroni]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Potapova 18/1 wins a group 3 on its 4th start  fortunitely i stuck with it.

nice one for sticking with it, gutted i backed the filly a few times before but lost faith this time, was like a double  as i see it coming down the outside to swoop past and beat my selection into 2nd.

as for my notebook horse Tashkhan, disappointing, might be he's not quite up to that level this year moving from 3yr to 4yr.would like to see it on a softer surface.