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NOTEBOOK HORSES 2022


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On 5/18/2022 at 6:27 PM, calva decoy said:

Runs at Sandown in Listed Thursday at 7.15 currently 9/4 but has the Queen's horse to & King Edward V11 current favourite to beat . 

3rd 8L behind the two joint favourites didn't have the quality over the last 1f ?

Not sure what form Varians horses are in to be honest hes not doing as well as he usually does thats for sure so maybe it is better than it showed plus, that was a tricky pair to take on maybe he just finding its level.

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SHAHBAZ :

Has just finished 4th on debut at Yarmouth over 7f on good chasing home 2 Godolphin & a Gosden type & was doing best work at the business end .

He is out of Free Eagle so an extra 1-3f would suit but definitely outran the 33/1 sp .

Note of caution , C.Fellowes like a lot of Newmarket trainers like to take their time with novices so may not see the best of this until 4th run but in the tracker for next 3 runs ?

 

Edited by calva decoy
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NOVEL LEGEND :

Finished 6th in hot 3 year old race over 11.5f at Yarmouth on good & was well behind Gosden's Baltic Bird who won well .

Is out of Nathaniel & will definitely be better for a bit further & was doing best work at the business end even with a 50/1 sp .

J.Fanshawe trains , another who likes to bring them on slowly but in the tracker for the next 3 runs .

 

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Date Posted by Horse 1st Run 2nd Run 3rd Run
18/02/22 Zilzalian Harrys Bar lost W 10/3 lost
18/02/22 Zilzalian Enemy W 11/1 lost lost
01/03/22 Zilzalian Baratti W 11/10 (2/1 ep)    
16/04/22 calva decoy Enshrine W 2/9 (2/5 ep)    
18/04/22 Zilzalian Potapova      
19/04/22 calva decoy Security Code      
26/04/22 calva decoy Akhu Najla lost    
28/04/22 black rabbit Flash Bulb      
29/04/22 black rabbit Eyedon 4th 33/1 (4 places)    
30/04/22 Zilzalian Traise Fluors      
13/05/22 black rabbit Cairn Gorm      
13/05/22 kroni Tashkhan      
14/05/22 Zilzalian Beringer      
17/05/22 Zilzalian Katey Kontent      
26/05/22 calva decoy Shahbaz      
26/05/22 calva decoy Novel Legend      
Edited by Zilzalian
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3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Enemy arguably unlucky lto has its 3rd run this evening 650 at Sandown over 2miles may well be a sighter for Royal Ascot.

could posters please update their own selections/additions to the list win or lose under their own comments and i will update to this list regularly. Thank you.

Enemy beaten far too easily for me, i will back it only at Ascot if avoiding Manobo. at least the 3 runs made a profit any further wins will be footnotes on this listing due to the sensible and popular policy of only recommending backing "next 3 runs."

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On 5/26/2022 at 3:04 PM, Zilzalian said:
Date Posted by Horse 1st Run 2nd Run 3rd Run
18/02/22 Zilzalian Harrys Bar lost W 10/3 lost
18/02/22 Zilzalian Enemy W 11/1 lost lost
01/03/22 Zilzalian Baratti W 11/10 (2/1 ep)    
16/04/22 calva decoy Enshrine W 2/9 (2/5 ep)    
18/04/22 Zilzalian Potapova      
19/04/22 calva decoy Security Code      
26/04/22 calva decoy Akhu Najla lost    
28/04/22 black rabbit Flash Bulb      
29/04/22 black rabbit Eyedon 4th 33/1 (4 places)    
30/04/22 Zilzalian Traise Fluors      
13/05/22 black rabbit Cairn Gorm      
13/05/22 kroni Tashkhan      
14/05/22 Zilzalian Beringer      
17/05/22 Zilzalian Katey Kontent      
26/05/22 calva decoy Shahbaz      
26/05/22 calva decoy Novel Legend      

Been doing a bit of R Ascot checking and here's what i found:-

15th queen mary                 katey kontent 8/1

15th duke of cambridge      potapova       14/1

16th gold cup                      enemy            25/1

18th Hardwick                     manobo         16/1         (this could be a huge price if it turns up here)

(i have only checked my own) so had a small ew L15 for now until the nrnb kicks in just in case.

Edited by Zilzalian
update
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Mentioned when i first posted this list i will add Manobo simply because i think it will probably win its next 3 starts or more but to balance things  it did lose last time out at meydan so that will count as a loss 1. The speed figure it produced at Meydan was without doubt very impressive/exceptional and i am still scratching my head as to how it got beat by the japanese horse although maybe it could be down to the step up 2 furlongs from 14f-16f.

Edited by Zilzalian
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On 5/30/2022 at 11:08 PM, Zilzalian said:

Mentioned when i first posted this list i will add Manobo simply because i think it will probably win its next 3 starts or more but to balance things  it did lose last time out at meydan so that will count as a loss 1. The speed figure it produced at Meydan was without doubt very impressive/exceptional and i am still scratching my head as to how it got beat by the japanese horse although maybe it could be down to the step up 2 furlongs from 14f-16f.

lost. Very dissapointing.

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Vintage Clarets    { out tomorrow at york }   was fancied in the super sprint last year ran well 

off mark of 103  then form imploded { problem with his nuts i understand}  problem now sorted 

i understand and has started to work very well at home hes now down to a mark of 87  and i expect 

even i could win on him in one of his next 3 runs

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On 5/13/2022 at 4:09 PM, kroni said:

Tashkhan still only a 4 year old, dont think we've seen best of him yet, was a satisfactory run at york today at 1m6f but i think will be more suited by 2m4f at ascot,  i'm thinking he's going to go for the Ascot Gold Cup 33/1 e-w betfair is overpriced

looks like Tashkhan runs today in the Gold Cup, was hoping for atleast a little give in the ground but thats not happening today. I see its been added to the Queen Alexandra on Saturday but looking at the weather theres no guarantee  the rain will arrive in time for that either.

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1 hour ago, kroni said:

looks like Tashkhan runs today in the Gold Cup, was hoping for atleast a little give in the ground but thats not happening today. I see its been added to the Queen Alexandra on Saturday but looking at the weather theres no guarantee  the rain will arrive in time for that either.

Tashkhan more likely than trueshan to handle the ground to be honest, cant see tash beating trueshan on soft.

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On 5/26/2022 at 1:50 PM, calva decoy said:

SHAHBAZ :

Has just finished 4th on debut at Yarmouth over 7f on good chasing home 2 Godolphin & a Gosden type & was doing best work at the business end .

He is out of Free Eagle so an extra 1-3f would suit but definitely outran the 33/1 sp .

Note of caution , C.Fellowes like a lot of Newmarket trainers like to take their time with novices so may not see the best of this until 4th run but in the tracker for next 3 runs ?

Lines up in the Chesham tomorrow .

Looks out of depth & is the 2nd from bottom in the betting at 80/1 with bet365 paying 4 places .

Was less than 2 lengths behind 2nd favourite Alihzar 8/1 ( I think it's called ) when on debut at Yarmouth.

Don't normally back 80/1 shots especially with Marmite Spencer riding but I'd kick myself if it got placed & it's only £1 each way & 3 runs in total hardly bankrupting stuff .

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18 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Lines up in the Chesham tomorrow .

Looks out of depth & is the 2nd from bottom in the betting at 80/1 with bet365 paying 4 places .

Was less than 2 lengths behind 2nd favourite Alihzar 8/1 ( I think it's called ) when on debut at Yarmouth.

Don't normally back 80/1 shots especially with Marmite Spencer riding but I'd kick myself if it got placed & it's only £1 each way & 3 runs in total hardly bankrupting stuff .

Now a non runner which I'm kind of pleased with 8-10f would suit , not sure if this will count as 1 of my 3 runs on my ATR tracker notifications ?

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  • 2 weeks later...
Date Posted by Horse 1st Run 2nd Run
18/02/22 Zilzalian Harrys Bar lost W 10/3
18/02/22 Zilzalian Enemy W 11/1 lost
01/03/22 Zilzalian Baratti W 11/10 (2/1 ep)  
16/04/22 calva decoy Enshrine W 2/9 (2/5 ep)  
18/04/22 Zilzalian Potapova 2nd 11/2 lost
19/04/22 calva decoy Security Code    
26/04/22 calva decoy Akhu Najla lost  
28/04/22 black rabbit Flash Bulb    
29/04/22 black rabbit Eyedon 4th 33/1 (4 places)  
30/04/22 Zilzalian Traise Fluors lost  
13/05/22 black rabbit Cairn Gorm lost  
13/05/22 kroni Tashkhan lost  
14/05/22 Zilzalian Beringer    
17/05/22 Zilzalian Katey Kontent lost (plcd 11/1 bet365)  
26/05/22 calva decoy Shahbaz    
26/05/22 calva decoy Novel Legend    
30/05/22 Zilzalian Manobo lost  
10/06/22 black rabbit Vintage Clarets lost  
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ENSHRINE runs on Sunday July 3rd on Chelmsford's all weather for the in form W.Haggas team .

Is stepped up in trip but made heavy work of the win 48 days ago , is around 6/4 but I feel a drift coming on so will look at price tomorrow . 

2nd at sp of 5/6 beaten by a 22/1 debutant .

She'll get a handicap mark on Tuesday & being a filly out of Ulysses may not see the best of her until end of summer & over 12f , one more run left in the tracker , I'll be glad to see the back of her !

Edited by calva decoy
results update
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16 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Barrati runs tomorrow 3:00 st-cloud i think 33/1 is good ew value but i do like alpinista which beat last years arc winner torquator tasso (won today) quite easily last year. this is a very competetive race and i think anything can happen so singles and rfc's for me.

Nice shout with firstly Barrati & the FC?

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On 6/27/2022 at 6:27 PM, Zilzalian said:
Date Posted by Horse 1st Run 2nd Run
18/02/22 Zilzalian Harrys Bar lost W 10/3
18/02/22 Zilzalian Enemy W 11/1 lost
01/03/22 Zilzalian Baratti W 11/10 (2/1 ep)  
16/04/22 calva decoy Enshrine W 2/9 (2/5 ep)  
18/04/22 Zilzalian Potapova 2nd 11/2 lost
19/04/22 calva decoy Security Code    
26/04/22 calva decoy Akhu Najla lost  
28/04/22 black rabbit Flash Bulb    
29/04/22 black rabbit Eyedon 4th 33/1 (4 places)  
30/04/22 Zilzalian Traise Fluors lost  
13/05/22 black rabbit Cairn Gorm lost  
13/05/22 kroni Tashkhan lost  
14/05/22 Zilzalian Beringer    
17/05/22 Zilzalian Katey Kontent lost (plcd 11/1 bet365)  
26/05/22 calva decoy Shahbaz    
26/05/22 calva decoy Novel Legend    
30/05/22 Zilzalian Manobo lost  
10/06/22 black rabbit Vintage Clarets lost  

New one for the list is Master of Chant (28/1) 2YO first time out and ran quite green but managed to claim 2nd behind a previous winner and a few better fancied runners, the race time was reasonable, promising.

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On 7/2/2022 at 10:35 PM, Zilzalian said:

Barrati runs tomorrow 3:00 st-cloud i think 33/1 is good ew value but i do like alpinista which beat last years arc winner torquator tasso (won today) quite easily last year. this is a very competetive race and i think anything can happen so singles and rfc's for me.

Small observation about this race Fabre had/has not had a winner for over 20 runners but has had 9 2nds very unusual for this top trainer so you would expect that there maybe better to come from Baratti and other runners from the stable worth keeping an eye on his horses going forward small concern is that you rarely get value from the UK bookies on Fabre horses and the pm prices are usually poor too so unless you see good value multiples are the best option in my opinion.

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Latest Update

Date Posted by Horse 1st Run 2nd Run 3rd Run Info purposes
18/02/22 Zilzalian Harrys Bar lost W 10/3 lost L W(3/1)
18/02/22 Zilzalian Enemy W 11/1 lost    
01/03/22 Zilzalian Baratti W 11/10 (2/1 ep) 2nd at 14/1 33/1 freely available    
16/04/22 calva decoy Enshrine W 2/9 (2/5 ep) 2nd at 5/6    
18/04/22 Zilzalian Potapova 2nd 11/2 lost    
19/04/22 calva decoy Security Code        
26/04/22 calva decoy Akhu Najla lost      
28/04/22 black rabbit Flash Bulb lost      
29/04/22 black rabbit Eyedon 4th 33/1 (4 places)      
30/04/22 Zilzalian Traise Fluors lost      
13/05/22 black rabbit Cairn Gorm lost lost    
13/05/22 kroni Tashkhan lost      
14/05/22 Zilzalian Beringer        
17/05/22 Zilzalian Katey Kontent lost (plcd 11/1 bet365)      
26/05/22 calva decoy Shahbaz        
26/05/22 calva decoy Novel Legend        
30/05/22 Zilzalian Manobo lost      
10/06/22 black rabbit Vintage Clarets lost      
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On 7/12/2022 at 5:56 PM, Zilzalian said:

Latest Update

Date Posted by Horse 1st Run 2nd Run 3rd Run Info purposes
18/02/22 Zilzalian Harrys Bar lost W 10/3 lost L W(3/1)
18/02/22 Zilzalian Enemy W 11/1 lost    
01/03/22 Zilzalian Baratti W 11/10 (2/1 ep) 2nd at 14/1 33/1 freely available    
16/04/22 calva decoy Enshrine W 2/9 (2/5 ep) 2nd at 5/6    
18/04/22 Zilzalian Potapova 2nd 11/2 lost    
19/04/22 calva decoy Security Code        
26/04/22 calva decoy Akhu Najla lost      
28/04/22 black rabbit Flash Bulb lost      
29/04/22 black rabbit Eyedon 4th 33/1 (4 places)      
30/04/22 Zilzalian Traise Fluors lost      
13/05/22 black rabbit Cairn Gorm lost lost    
13/05/22 kroni Tashkhan lost      
14/05/22 Zilzalian Beringer        
17/05/22 Zilzalian Katey Kontent lost (plcd 11/1 bet365)      
26/05/22 calva decoy Shahbaz        
26/05/22 calva decoy Novel Legend        
30/05/22 Zilzalian Manobo lost      
10/06/22 black rabbit Vintage Clarets lost      

An addition here for Batal Dubai The Charlton newbie 2yo looked very proming gg  winning this first time up at Haydock seemingly not fancied out to 10/1 then back in to 7/1

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On 5/26/2022 at 1:50 PM, calva decoy said:

SHAHBAZ :

Has just finished 4th on debut at Yarmouth over 7f on good chasing home 2 Godolphin & a Gosden type & was doing best work at the business end .

He is out of Free Eagle so an extra 1-3f would suit but definitely outran the 33/1 sp .

Note of caution , C.Fellowes like a lot of Newmarket trainers like to take their time with novices so may not see the best of this until 4th run but in the tracker for next 3 runs ?

Runs this Saturday 23rd July 

247 Newcastle - SHAHBAZ 2/1 William Hill .

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4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

2 runs left i think, but is it one of those gg's thats never going to be a half decent price? by that i meant a dodgy fav/2ndfav

I didn't back today & will back on it's 4th run when Charlie steps it up in distance & then maybe a better price but when you watch them on their maiden run you never really know what they're going to do afterwards albeit getting a better picture after the 2 runs & showed progression today .

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Update on Enemy which has been dissapointing in its last two races, observations that it is in the Ebor (25/1) tell me that they didn't want any more weight on it so might explain those last two runs. Worth a tickle at that price anti post then bet again on the day of the Ebor if its still in.

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6 minutes ago, Aj racer said:

Barnhill Rose won at 10-1 came 3rd at 100-30 shows great potential in Irish races its one to keep your eyes peeled for likes to stick in top 6 and sprint near the end when other horse are tired 

 

I will add it to the list please update this comment win lose or draw for its next 3 runs

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