Welsh Open

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Qualification for the Welsh Open begins tomorrow and spans 6 days to see who will compete in the event, which will take place at the end of the month. 6 matches tomorrow with 2 matches at lunchtime, afternoon and evening. Here's what we have tomorrow then :

1pm - J. Clarke Vs Ajaib
1pm - J. Robertson Vs P. Devlin
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4pm - D. Lilley Vs Hancorn
4pm - J. O'Connor Vs Stevens
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7pm - Joyce Vs Page
7pm - R. Williams Vs Lam

looking for value, there is 2 that I like accross the day and the first is Hancorn to beat Lilley. Only played eachother once and it was at an even shorter format as Hancorn won 2-0 at the WST Pro Series, last year. Hancorn made the L32 at the British Open and Scottish Open this season and whilst he has also had some poor results this season, he looked good in his deciding leg loss over Ali Carter last week. He made one century and 4 50+ breaks in that match and if he brings that form to Wales then I think he beats Lilley. Lilley has had a hard first season after coming through Q-School. He has won a few matches (Mann, Young & Steadman) but he doesn't score well enough. 6 of his 12 matches he hasn't scored one 50+ break and he's only hit one century and only 6 50+ breaks in the entire 12 matches.

The other single bet I like is Jackson Page to beat Mark Joyce. Joyce won their only h2h back in 2019 but his season to date this year has been far from impressive. He actually beat Lisowsi early in the season, at the English Open but then went out 4-0 to Jamie Clarke. He won a couple of matches at the UK Championship against Higginson and Astley but if we look at his last 4 tournaments, he has gone out in R1 in all of them and has lost to the likes of Wakelin, Surety, Jiankang and Lichtenberg. I think Page has every chance here. He has also beaten Lisowski this season early on and whitewashed him. He actually made the L16 of that Northern Ireland Open. In the middle of the season it's only been "so-so" with a couple of wins at the Scottish Open but he has played good players and he comes into this match fresh from qualifiying for the Turkish with a win over Stuart Bingham.

6pts Hancorn to beat Lilley 5/6 betfair
5pts Page to beat Joyce 11/10 betfair
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1pt accy - Hancorn / J.Robertson -2.5 frames / Page / O'Connor 12/1 betfair

[888888]

congrats for the Hancorn pick, nice and smooth win, let's hope the same for Page !!

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Yeah, unfortunately Page didn't turn up atall. Today's matches :

Ning Vs Walker
Lichtenberg Vs Pagett
Jak Jones Vs Akani
Burden Vs Davis
Brecel Vs McLeod
Haotian Vs Hamilton
Vafaei Vs Higginson
King Vs Highfield

Just the one for me today and it's in the afternoon matches. Mark Davis on the -1.5 frame handicap to beat Burden. Burden has had a pretty average season this year after making it through Q-School. He has won a few matches against the likes of Zifan and Sijun and most recently a win over Peter Lines but in general he has lost alot of matches. He got thrashed 5-0 by Emery last week and that can't be good going into the match against Davis. Davis made the L16 of the UK Championship, losing a deciding leg to Robertson and comes into this after qualifying for the Turkish Masters. His form isn't ideal but his scoring is better than Burden too. He has also beaten Burden in all 3 of their head-2-heads and covered a -1.5 handicap on them all.

5.5pts M. Davis (-1.5 frames) to beat A. Burden 8/11 betfair

 

 

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that's pretty typical really. Davis wins in a deciding leg. A few 50/50s that I was tempted with but nothing really screams out today. 

[charliepie]

That was annoying but typical as you say!

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I was tempted by Jiahui on the handicap to beat Bond this morning but in a "first to 4" i want to leave handicaps alone now. Here is the rest of the matches today though :

1pm
Georgiou Vs Kleckers
Yupeng Vs Zhengyi

4pm
Taylor Vs O'Neill
Guodong Vs M.White 

7pm
G.Wilson Vs P.Lines
Holt Vs O'Donnell

Zhengyi looks a good price to beat Yupeng. Yupeng is a really good player and he's also winning matches but Zhengyi seems to be scoring better at the moment and at 11/5 I think he's worth a couple of points. The next bet I like is Taylor to beat Jamie O'Neill. O'Neill has been poor recently and lost again last week 5-0 to Higginson. He beat Judge early in the season and has beaten Miah a couple of times but other than that, it's poor results throughout. Taylor isn't exactly pulling up trees either with mostly poor results but I think his form is better than O'Neill and scoring better. I'll put him in a treble with my third pick, Holt to beat O'Donnell.

2.5pts Zhengyi to beat Yupeng 11/5 betfair
1pt treble Zhengyi, Taylor and Holt 8.5/1 betfair

[charliepie]

Shame that Zhengyi blew it!

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This gets underway in the morning. Few I like and the first is the 1pm match Boiko against Liam Davies. Davies is just 15yrs old and Boiko just 16. I feel like Boiko just has that extra bit of experience though and has played more matches this season. I think he wins 4-1/4-2. Next up, the 2pm match, I think Hugill is worth a shot to beat Yan Bingtao. Bingtao is playing some good stuff recently but 7/2 Hugill is worth a punt. He has beaten Lisowski and Carter last week and was giving Ronnie a game for a while.  It's not ideal that he's playing a player also hitting some form but 7/2 is worth a shot.

I wanted to take on Ronnie with a bet on Craigie too but I reckon Ronnie will probably pull out after losing that final.

5pts J. Boiko (-1.5 frames) to beat L. Davies 5/4 betfair
6pts A.. Hugill (+2.5 frames) to beat Y. Bingtao 4/6 betfair
2pts A. Hugill to beat Y. Bingtao 7/2 betfair
 

[charliepie]

I hope he doesn't pull out as he's always liked the Welsh open but you may well be right.

[Fader]

my word, for Boiko to lose that frame is dreadful  absolute garbage.

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standard, after going 3-0 down, Boiko wins 4-3.  atleast Hugill has covered the handicap and has a chance to win at 3-3 against "Ball-run Bingtao"  

One more for tonight and I'm going to take Jiahui to beat Gary Wilson. Wilson has been in some terrible form recently and has lost matches to the likes of Kleckers, Even when he wins, he is making a meal of matches that he really should be winning with ease. I think Jiahui is worth backing tonight.

4pts Jiahui to beat G.Wilson 6/4 bet365

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hands up who thought from 3-1 down, Jiahui would lose  good to see him come through. Onto today and couple I like as singles and an accy attempt. Also a small stake outright. First is Jimmy Robertson to beat Welshman Jamie Jones. Jimmy had a great Players Championship and although the scoring looks to have dropped abit, I think he beats Jamie today. I think I'm going to take small stakes on Kurt Maflin beating Mark Williams, too. Williams won his first match easy enough but I'm not sure where his form is at currently, where atleast we know Maflin is playing well, beating Trump last week.

In the later games I'll take Mark Davis to beat Selt. Davis has won the last 5 head-to-heads in a row. Both their form patterns look similar really but it surprises me that Davis isn't the favourite. Anda takes on Mark Joyce in the evening matches too and I'll go with Anda. He beat McGill and performed well. Battled when he needed to and scored well at times. Joyce has had a few poor results like losing to Lichtenberg and Jiankang recently. Infact the win over Jackson Page has been his best performance as of late.

5pts J. Robertson to beat J. Jones 9/10 betfair
4pts M. Davis to beat M. Selt evens bet365
2.5pts K. Maflin to beat M. Williams 11/5 bet365
1pt accy - Wenbo / Davis / J. Robertson / Anda - 10/1 betfair

0.25pts e/w K.Maflin to win Welsh Open 200/1 betfair
 

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My god, Maflin. 3-1 up playing great then just turns into a wreckless idiot. Now 3-3. Only one winner from here.

* fair do Kurt Maflin. Hell of a deciding frame clearance.

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Seens as Maflin won today, I'm going to take a bet on a 4-fold for the evening. I already have Davis tonight and I think Anda is probably worth a single bet, however I will throw them both in with handicap wins for Wakelin and Ferg O'Brien. It's a speculate bet as I don't rate Ferg massively and it's never known how good a player plays to thrash Maguire (maguire loves to just give up) but the price is there and we can still win with a deciding leg loss.

1pt accy (money back if one loses) - Davis / Anda / Wakelin +1.5 frames / Ferg O'Brien +1.5 frames 12/1 betfair

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Mark Davis was horrible tonight. Selt didn't even need to be good to win. Profit on the day thanks to Maflin then and onto tomorrow. I have another outright pick that I want to chuck in the mix after a real solid performance and that man is Ding Junhui. 3 centuries in his 4-1 win over a man who was highly motivated to win, in Holt. I get the feeling with the likes of Zhengyi, Bingtao and Xintong all getting success recently, Ding will be motivated. He now isn't the best Chinese player when it comes to rankings. I feel like he is playing some good stuff again and I think he is ready to get back on track. In terms of the draw, he's going to have Ronnie in the next round and that's going to be the main test for Ding because of the poor h2h record. If he gets through Ronnie though, I feel like he has every chance of going deep.

0.5pts e/w D. Junhui to win Welsh Open 25/1 willhill

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onto the matches and in the morning session I'll take Lu Ning to beat Matthew Stevens. Lu Ning is definitely in the better form of the two and I do get the feeling that Stevens would be a bigger underdog if we wasn't in Wales. Last week Ning won 5-0 against fellow Chinese player, Peifan Lei. He hit 4 50+ breaks in that to qualify. He also hit 3 50+ breaks in the 4-2 win over Walker last week, here. He has only lost matches recently when the other player has really stepped it up and I think he beats Stevens. Stevens beat Joe O'Connor to get here and he did it well with 4 50+ breaks in the 4-1 win. It was a good result and performance but in general, we haven't seen anything like that from Stevens this season. 

5pts Lu Ning to beat M. Stevens 4/5 betfair

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It's like torture watching these last few frames. Great 1st and 3rd frame to go 2-1 up and then Ning has turned to utter garbage. Completely outplayed defensively and even when it's on a plate he's missing now. Stevens has played well in patches but he's had Ning helping him along the way. 

[Torque]

27 minutes ago, Fader said:

It's like torture watching these last few frames. Great 1st and 3rd frame to go 2-1 up and then Ning has turned to utter garbage. Completely outplayed defensively and even when it's on a plate he's missing now. Stevens has played well in patches but he's had Ning helping him along the way. 

You're gonna get matches like that aren't you. Yesterday there were two final frame deciders that went your way. It's swings and roundabouts isn't it.

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1 minute ago, Torque said:

You're gonna get matches like that aren't you. Yesterday there were two final frame deciders that went your way. It's swings and roundabouts isn't it.

No doubt. Stevens deserved to win. 

[charliepie]

Betting on anything is torture most of the time! I like the Ding bet, surely he's due a win over Ronnie and tomorrow might be that day...

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1 hour ago, charliepie said:

Betting on anything is torture most of the time! I like the Ding bet, surely he's due a win over Ronnie and tomorrow might be that day...

haha, yeah, Ronnie didn't look that great today and if he beats him tomorrow and plays like he has done then he should fear nobody. Neil Robertson is on fire right now and I would expect him to win everything but he is in the other half with Trump so I would like to think Ding has every chance of making the final this week.

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One single bet for me tonight and it's Anda to beat Sijun. I think Anda should be favourite tonight. He's beaten an in-form McGill and Joyce here and pushed Ronnie to a deciding leg last week. He beat Sijun in their only h2h and Sijun really made hard work of beating McLeod. I'll also throw a couple points at a boosted 4-fold with betfair which includes players of whom I think all should realistically win. If I had a worry of any then it would be Jimmy. It's hard to gauge how well Ferg is playing. He has had a terrible Maguire and Un-Nooh so far.

5pts Anda to beat Sijun evens betfair
4pts Allen, Higgins, Trump and J. Robertson all to win 9/4 betfair

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Anda comes through 4-2 but quite surprisingly Higgins loses to Carter and Allen goes out too. The bottom half is very open and the match with Ronnie taking on Ding could prove to be a very interesting one on the outcome of the latter stages.

By the end of the day tomorrow we will know the final 8 players as everybody plays twice as normal at these Home Nation events. This means we have 8 matches split up with a starting time of 1pm/2pm 4 each and then the next round starts alittle later in the day/evening. We can see what matches manifest but for now, looking at these 8 matches. I think it's worth backing Ding to get one over on Ronnie. Ronnie hasn't really been tested too hard yet with Kleckers and Cahill but he has still scored decent enough with 7 50+ breaks across those two matches. It's more than decent and by anybody elses standards, he would be in good form. He also has a really good record against Ding and that's largely due to Ding never seemingly ready to turn up against him. However, I'm hoping that Ding can now see that Ronnie is human like any other player and he can see others have beaten him in big finals like Fan and Bingtao in big matches and I think he will come out and get the win. Ding comes into this in very good form with 3 centuries in his 4-1 win over Holt. Ronnie has won the last 6 but the last 5 have ALL been in a deciding leg. I'll have a saver on that happening again.

I also think it's worth taking a punt on Ben Woollaston to beat Hawkins. Hawkins beat Carty 4-1 without hitting even so much as a 50 break and Woollaston managed to be a bang in-form Wenbo, who hit 2 centuries. He stuck around at got back to 2-2 before winning a deciding leg. In these short format games, luck and little runs of the ball go a long way in all reality and I think 7/4 is a big price for Ben.

Third, I'll take home boy Michael White to beat Highfield. Highfield is just coming off of a  big win over World Champion Mark Selby but it's well known where Selby is at currently with his mental issues and he was a player that it was a matter of time before he went out in my opinion. Selby is so good that he can win alot of matches with his D game but in reality Highfield won with just a couple of 50+ breaks and White has scored just as well, if  not better, in his matches. He also has beaten Highfield in their last 2 h2h matches. 

4pts Ding to beat O'Sullivan 7/4 willhill
1pt Ronnie to beat Ding 4-3 9/2 bet365
4pts Woollaston to beat Hawkins 7/4 betfair
2.5pts M. White to beat Highfield 6/5 betfair
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1pt 4-fold - White / Woollaston / Ding / Slessor 41/1 betfair (money back if one loses)

[888888]

Ding losing the 4th and 5th frame while being well in front was absolutely awful to watch, both frames he should have won

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88888 - feels like this kinda things happens to me all the time. I've also not seen Ronnie pot these kind of balls for years but Ding just sometimes doesn't have the cutting instinct against Ronnie. He can't say he hasn't had the chances to win.

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yeah that black was woeful. deserves to lose.

[charliepie]

Fucks sake, that was a sore one! Ding should have at least got to 3 frames for the cover bet but the old demons came back and he went to pieces sadly.

[888888]

the 4th frame where he missed the pink and then an easy red would have made it 3-1 , that 4th frame killed me; after that he knew he missed his chance and lost his confidence

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2 hours ago, charliepie said:

Fucks sake, that was a sore one! Ding should have at least got to 3 frames for the cover bet but the old demons came back and he went to pieces sadly.

yeah, you could see it, couldn't you? He would never miss that black if it was frame 1 All too weak. I thought he finally was going to make something of himself this week and win a tournament but he's back in discarded bin.

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Just one for tonight whilst I try to wrap my head around backing the likes of Ben Woollaston to beat anybody. I think Stevens beats Anda tonight. Have backed Anda a few times and he's done the job and has scored well but he don't half make it hard for himself and despite dominating the match, he still could have been 3-2 down to Sijun at one point. Stevens has strolled through the tournament so far and much like Michael White seems to be inspired with it being the Welsh Open. 

5.5pts Stevens to beat Anda 8/11 bet365