Racing Chat - Sunday 6th February

[The Brigadier]

Day two of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown where the ground remains on the slow side. Musselburgh also host their second day of their Trials meeting with the ground also on the soft side following rain on Saturday. Here’s my thoughts on the 9 ITV races :-

 

Leopardstown 1.20

Eight go to post for the 2m 5 1/2F novice chase. We have a very warm favourite here in the Willie Mullins trained Galopin Des Champs who was a highly impressive winner of a beginners chase over course and distance over Christmas impressing with his fast and fluent jumping. He’s a very short price for a horse who’s only won a beginners chase but he was a smart hurdler who won at the Cheltenham Festival last season and will be hard to beat in a race Mullins has won on 5 of the last 9 runnings with the likes of Monkfish and Faugheen. In typical Mullins style he also saddle three others although the one to chase the favourite hom maybe the JP McManus owned Capodanno who chased home Bob Olinger last time out.

 

Musselburgh 1.32

A disappointing turnout in quantity and quality here as Seven go to post for the Scottish Triumph Hurdle, a listed race run over just short of two miles. The free running Inca Prince has run away with two poor juvenile hurdles since joining Ruth Jefferson and the trainer has booked the services of Brian Hughes. This represents a step up in class mind and a big threat comes from the Nicky Henderson challenger Impulsive One who was last seen when getting beaten on the all weather at Wolverhampton. Irish trainer John McConnell saddles a brace of runners in Innatendue who’s making his British debut having joined the handler from France and Calvados, a filly who has already been runner up in listed company at Aintree earlier in the season. She was last seen when beaten 18L by the smart Fil Dor in the Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. That wasn’t a bad effort and at the current odds is maybe the best value here with Sean Bowen riding. She sports a first time hood today which may help eke further improvement out of her. 

CALVADOS 1 point win @ 11/2 Bet365

 

Leopardstown 1.50

A small but select field of five go to post for the Dublin Chase run over 2m 1F. This is a race that’s only been run on four occasions and Willie Mullins has won all four, twice with Min and twice with this years warm favourite Chacun Pour Soi. The latter would be an even stronger favourite had he not blotted his copybook at Sandown last time out in the Tingle Creek at Sandown when running a lifeless race finishing a 34L last of five behind Greaneteen. That surely wasn’t his form but it’s hard to take odds on about a horse that ran so flat last time out. The winner of the Tingle Creek Greaneteen is over from England and is probably the value play today. He not only had Chacun Pour Soi behind last time but also Captain Guinness and with the other pair Cash Back and Dunvegan 10lb inferior on official ratings it maybe worth a small interest. The only nagging doubt is the current form of Paul Nicholls which is pretty dire by his standards. 

GREANETEEN 1 point win @ 4/1 Boylesports

 

Musselburgh 2.05

Six assemble for the Scottish Supreme Novices’ Hurdle run over 1m 7F 124yds. Despite its name this race will most certainly not be causing any ripples in the Cheltenham race of the same name with the highest rated here only 128. That is the Olly Murphy trained Restandbethankful, a handicap hurdle winner last time out at Huntingdon under a big weight. He should run well. Also at the head of the market is the Donald McCain trained Since Day One who’s chasing a four timer here having won three modest maiden/novice hurdles at Newcastle this season. He too should be competitive. The Irish raider Kihavah shouldn’t be under estimated either. Trained by Aidrian Paul Keatley he ran well in a decent handicap last weekend at Cheltenham and at the current prices is actually the percentage call. I’ll take him to take this under Conor O’Farrell. 

KIHAVAH 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hill

 

Leopardstown 2.25

One of two ultra competitive handicaps on the Leopardstown card today. This one is over fences and run over 2m 5F 61yds. 17 go to post with the current favourite being the Willie Mullins trained Blackbow who ran well on his handicap debut at Fairyhouse last month over 2m 1F and should appreciate the extra half a mile today. Novice’s Gallant John Joe and Max Flamingo are interesting on their handicap debuts especially the latter who drops in trip here having finished a credible fourth in grade one company here over the Christmas period. In a wide open handicap he is worth a small each way interest with conditional jockey PJ O’Hanlon taking a valuable 7lb off of the gelding. 

MAX FLAMINGO 1 point each way @ 8/1 Bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Musselburgh 2.40

A Pertemps qualifier run over three miles and a healthy enough field of eleven going to post. Martin Keighley’s Brorson landed a punt in no uncertain manner when scooting up in a poor race at Fakenham last time on his first start at three miles under today’s jockey Sean Bowen and despite a 13lb rise in the handicap may still be improving so looks a decent bet to follow up here and enhance his credentials for the final at Cheltenham in March. Wakool is chasing a four timer for the Nick Alexander stable having risen some 23lb for that hat trick. He stays well and looks a threat whilst Fergal O’Brien’s Ratfacemcdougall has good track form and should also be thereabouts. 

BRORSON 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

Leopardstown 3.00

The Chantelle Pharma Irish Champion Hurdle has been won by Henry De Bromhead’s superstar mare Honeysuckle for the last two years and it will be a major shock if she doesn’t win again. She’s unbeaten in 13 starts now (including her point to point) which includes 9 graded one contests. She looked better than ever when winning on her re-appearance at Fairyhouse and let’s hope all goes well with her during the race and she comes home safe and sound. Zanahiyr can chase her home.

 

Musselburgh 3.15

A competitive eight runner two mile handicap chase with a decent pot of £12k to the winner. All eight runners have chances of sorts with Martin Keighley’s Cotswolds stable represented by likely favourite in Sarasota Star who arrives here in decent form. It maybe worth chancing bottom weight Lucky Flight who was going well when unseating his jockey two from home at Kelso on Thursday. This is a quick turnaround but in such an open race it maybe worth a speculative each way bet on Lucinda Russell’s 8 year old. 

LUCKY FLIGHT 1/2 point each way @ 12/1 Bet365 1/5th 123

 

Leopardstown 3.35

Nine runners go to post for the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle run over two miles. Yet again another warm favourite in Sir Gerhard who was a top bumper horse last season winning the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Willie Mullins’ seven year old was very impressive on his hurdling debut when winning over course and distance on Boxing Day when a big odds on chance and can take this en route to a tilt at one of the two big novice hurdles at Cheltenham in six weeks time. There’s little between My Mate Mozzie and Statuaire on Royal Bond running at Fairyhouse in November and the biggest threat to the favourite may come from the Gordon Elliott runner Three Stripe Life who only went down by a length and a half to his stable mate Mighty Potter over course and distance over Christmas in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle. That form as it stands is better than Sir Gerhards romp but it’s the latter who may have the more progression and looks a good bet here despite his short odds. 

SIR GERHARD 3 points win @ 11/10 Bet365

 

 

[black rabbit]

autumn evening   4 10   leop    1/4  pt  win  16/1    

drop the anchor  4 10  leop  36/1   1/4 pt win   36/1 

 

P/L  +  119 pts  

Edited February 6, 2022 by black rabbit
adding selections