Tennis Tips - February 14 - February 20

[CzechPunter]

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Petra Kvitova at 1.56 with Pinnacle

Kvitova somehow managed to recover from that loss against Begu, but Sabalenka has somehow managed to recover from all the double faults trauma from Australia. Should be a cracker, then, but Sabalenka holds all the cards in this match-up already I feel. Kvitova can go missing, she can fall away physically as well, etc.

[Torque]

35 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Aryna Sabalenka to beat Petra Kvitova at 1.56 with Pinnacle

Kvitova somehow managed to recover from that loss against Begu, but Sabalenka has somehow managed to recover from all the double faults trauma from Australia. Should be a cracker, then, but Sabalenka holds all the cards in this match-up already I feel. Kvitova can go missing, she can fall away physically as well, etc.

Good luck with this but it's definitely not one for me. Let's say Sabalenka serves eight doubles like in her last match - that's giving Kvitova a two game start. Personally I might take that risk if the odds were higher, but not when Sabalenka is 2 to 1 on.

[neilovan]

I watched the Sabalenka v Kostyk match and was surprised by the shift in the Sabalenka mentality regarding her serve.

First set was 10 games, with 7 serve breaks. First game of the match, Sabalenka serves 4 double faults, but still nearly wins the game. In previous matches, she would have had a slight meltdown and shown really poor body language. This time very different. It seemed to hardly affect her, and by the time she was returning, had brushed it off. Kostyk did not serve badly but was broken relatively easily, with powerful aggressive hitting. So it's pretty clear that Sabalenka has been working hard, because the ground strokes look very good. The serve , being so technical will require a longer period to adjust.

I think Sabalenka crushes Kvitova, who has been poorish this season.

 

Jabeur looked so bad against Zvonareva, it was hard to watch. Made 23 errors in an 8 game 2nd set (3 a game) and probably over 30 unforced errors in the 3rd set. At a pro level, numbers like that are hideous. Injury and lack of match fitness (mental and physical) have put Jabeur's game in a bad place. And there is simply no on/off switch. Jabeur in this form simply cannot live with Pegula.

 

Have a strange feeling that Swiatek struggles with Ostapenko. Ostapenko lost 3rd round Aussie (Krejcikova), and then in semis in St. Petersburg (Kontaveit) so she has some decent form coming into this game. The beating Swiatek took in the Aussie open semi (Collins beat her 6-4, 6-1) could still be lingering. Swiatek looks to have a similar game to Krejcikova for me. A good game to beat players ranked 30 to 120 but not fantastic against top 25 opponents. Think the +4.5 games for Ostapenko at odds of 1.72 are reasonable.

 

Botic van de Zandschulp plays Cilic in Doha. I think Cilic and van de Zandschulp are quite similar in game styles, but Cilic is a better version. Cilic has somewhat of a robotic service motion (to me), but but plays very effective first strike tennis behind a consistent delivery. As a spectator, the endless bouncing of the ball drives me crazy, but I can only see a Cilic win here.  

 

For me a guy to avoid for a while is Aslan Karatsev. Not playing particularly well. It seems like opponents are figuring out his game, and how to beat him. I thought he was quite poor when having to generate pace in his last match. I think he cannot come close to the peak of his break out year (a couple of years ago), and his ranking will drop as he tries to defend big points. Once you fall out of the top 30 or so, you run into all kinds of tough opponents, in the early rounds. It's an additional subtle pressure that a player has to absorb. Something not quite right with his game. Tempted by a small bet on the handicap (+2.5 at odds of 1.83) on Rune.

 

3.51AM posting tennis stuff. Just invested in a new sealy posturepedic mattress. Think it's called the 'back breaker', 'fitful sleep' or 'endless insomniac' range, because a bed of nails would be more comfortable!?

Edited February 16, 2022 by neilovan

[four-leaf]

I guess Kenin might call it a career soon..

[raduvlad1995]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

I watched the Sabalenka v Kostyk match and was surprised by the shift in the Sabalenka mentality regarding her serve.

First set was 10 games, with 7 serve breaks. First game of the match, Sabalenka serves 4 double faults, but still wins the game. In previous matches, she would have had a slight meltdown and shown poor body . This time very different. It seemed to affect her, and by the time she was returning, had brushed it off. Kostyk did not serve badly but was broken relatively , with powerful aggressive hitting. So it's pretty clear that Sabalenka has been working hard, because the ground strokes look very good. The serve , being so technical will require a longer period .

I think Sabalenka crushes Kvitova, who has been poorish this season.

 

Jabeur looked so bad against Zvonareva, it was hard to watch. Made 23 errors in an 8 game 2nd set (3 a game) and over 30 unforced errors in the 3rd set. At level, numbers like that are hideous. Injury and lack of match (mental and physical) have put Jabeur's game in a bad place. And there is no on/off switch. Jabeur in this form cannot live with Pegula.

 

Have a strange feeling that Swiatek struggles with Ostapenko. Ostapenko lost 3rd round Aussie (Krejcikova), and then in semis in St. Petersburg (Kontaveit) so she has some decent form coming into this game. The beating Swiatek took in the Aussie open semi (Collins beat her 6-4, 6-1) could still be lingering. Swiatek looks to have a similar game to Krejcikova for me. A good game to beat players ranked 30 to 120 but not fantastic against top 25 opponents. Think the +4.5 games for Ostapenko at odds of 1.72 are reasonable.

 

Botic van de Zandschulp plays Cilic in Doha. I think Cilic and van de Zandschulp are quite similar in game styles, but Cilic is a better version. Cilic has somewhat of a robotic service motion (to me), but but plays very effective first strike tennis behind a consistent delivery. As a spectator, the endless bouncing of the ball drives me crazy, but I can only see a Cilic win here.  

 

For me a guy for a while is Aslan Karatsev. Not playing particularly well. It seems like opponents are figuring out his game, and how to beat him. I thought he was quite poor when having to generate pace in his last match. I think he cannot come close to the peak of his break out year (a couple of ago), and his ranking will drop as he tries to defend big points. Once you fall out of the top 30 or so, you run into all of tough opponents, in the early rounds. It's an additional subtle pressure that a player has to absorb. Something not quite right with his game. Tempted by a small bet on the handicap (+2.5 at odds of 1.83) on Rune.

 

3.51AM posting tennis stuff. Just invested in a new sealy posturepedic mattress. Think it's called the 'back breaker', 'fitful sleep' or 'endless insomniac' range, because of nails would be more comfortable!?

karatsev has a very fine margins game since he plays so agresive but I think he's a talented player despite all that, but you re 100% right there's alot of value sometimes in betting on his oponents. Didn t realy see much of the youngster rune so I can't realy make a prediction. If cilic doesn t serve well I think he's gonna have a hard time with botic but if his first serve fires decently I also see him as the winner since he returns better and can expose the dutch's movement around the court. Would avoid cilic untill we see his form though.

[raduvlad1995]

ok guys, opinions on busta-fognini ?  I definetly think busta's 1,48 odd is very good, he's done well in rio before , and he seemed happy to be playing there again in an interview. We all  know how talented fabio is , but busta beat him on clay prety much everytime and he has the game to annoy fognini alot.

[CzechPunter]

I'd be all for it had PCB already played after the Australian Open.

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, raduvlad1995 said:

ok guys, opinions on busta-fognini ?  I definetly think busta's 1,48 odd is very good, he's done well in rio before , and he seemed happy to be playing there again in an interview. We all  know how talented fabio is , but busta beat him on clay prety much everytime and he has the game to annoy fognini alot.

From a system software point, it likes Carreno Busta for the win, but it's right on the edge of  being viable. The problem is that you don't really know which Fognini pops out the box. If he wakes up and feels like putting the effort in, he can be ridiculously good. There are few players on the ATP tour with his level of raw talent. 

I just feel that Fognini has not played enough, and may just tank it when/if it starts going against him. His ranking has gone from 12 to 36 which is a pretty solid indicator that his results, for whatever reason, are diminishing. How many more years does he want to spend on the road instead of at home with a young family? 

[raduvlad1995]

39 minutes ago, neilovan said:

From a system software point, it likes Carreno Busta for the win, but it's right on the edge of  being viable. The problem is that you don't really know which Fognini pops out the box. If he wakes up and feels like putting the effort in, he can be ridiculously good. There are few players on the ATP tour with his level of raw talent. 

I just feel that Fognini has not played enough, and may just tank it when/if it starts going against him. His ranking has gone from 12 to 36 which is a pretty solid that his results, for whatever reason, are diminishing. How many more does he want to spend on the road of at home with a young family? 

yep, I ve avoided that one went for some bets on evans and coria against verdasco. Many interesting matchups and players playing today but hard to predict for me. I also hate how windy conditions are in delray , I didn t bet on norrie simply because of them.

[four-leaf]

41 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

yep, I ve avoided that one went for some bets on evans and coria against verdasco. Many interesting matchups and players playing today but hard to predict for me. I also hate how windy conditions are in delray , I didn t bet on norrie simply because of them.

Coria's lack of power might be his undoing tonight. If Verdasco hits the spot Coria will be in trouble.

[CzechPunter]

Carlos Alcaraz (-3.5) to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.71 with Unibet

After watching the two, Alcaraz should just crush Delbonis. I'm going to believe that he was just getting comfortable with the conditions and the rustiness in the first set against Munar and that he'll continue where he left when he shows up for this match. Delbonis was close to losing against Galan, but the latter went missing.

[raduvlad1995]

5 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Coria's lack of power might be his undoing tonight. If Verdasco hits the spot Coria will be in trouble.

need him to take a set , kind of banking on verdasco becoming an error machine as he does most of the time. Coria should be able to put more balls in play than lajovic.

[raduvlad1995]

anyone else thinking that bautista has a good shot at the doha title ? he was simply amazing against murray.

[CzechPunter]

Well, my form is such that you shouldn't be asking me for advice right now! If Rublev plays his good standard, Gasquet won't stand a chance, let's be real. If he starts a bit slow, though, Gasquet could be tricky, he can still play some decent tennis for a while and indoors is his best bet right now. I'm not really seeing it unless Rublev isn't motivated enough.

[neilovan]

14 hours ago, neilovan said:

I watched the Sabalenka v Kostyk match and was surprised by the shift in the Sabalenka mentality regarding her serve.

First set was 10 games, with 7 serve breaks. First game of the match, Sabalenka serves 4 double faults, but still nearly wins the game. In previous matches, she would have had a slight meltdown and shown really poor body language. This time very different. It seemed to hardly affect her, and by the time she was returning, had brushed it off. Kostyk did not serve badly but was broken relatively easily, with powerful aggressive hitting. So it's pretty clear that Sabalenka has been working hard, because the ground strokes look very good. The serve , being so technical will require a longer period to adjust.

I think Sabalenka crushes Kvitova, who has been poorish this season.

 

 

17 hours ago, neilovan said:

 

I think Sabalenka crushes Kvitova,  

 Jabeur in this form simply cannot live with Pegula.

 Swiatek struggles with Ostapenko. 

 Cilic wins

 

2 out of 4 right but amazing to see Kvitova win so easily, and Jabeur demolish Pegula. Didn't see those two coming at all.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

anyone else thinking that bautista has a good shot at the doha title ? he was simply amazing against murray.

He should have a good shot - likes this part of the world and this time in the season.

[raduvlad1995]

4 matches draw my attention today . khachanov-cilic, ruud-cerundulo,alcaraz delbonis,berretinni-monteiro. Opinions ? I'd say khachanov-cilic maybe something on games ( I play conservative so maybe like over19.5 but for amateurs of higher odds you can go with more than that) or khachanov winning a set atleast ? ruud is just ver very good on clay,if he recovered from buenos aires(which he should have he's young)he should handily beat cerundulo, alcaraz is just so much better than delbonis and won against a peaking munar even without his top level and berretini monteiro is the hardest since the later is left handed and can play to berretini's weak backhand and he'll have the public pushing him, but even there berretinni's big weapons and clean ball striking off serve and fh should be too much (I think he's fit , no injuryes).

[rainz]

What do you think guys about Machac - Safiulin? First I tho Safiulin will be the favorite but Machac is. For me Safiulin is slighty better, maybe im wrong.

[CzechPunter]

I'm not sure what has happened with Safiullin. First a great start in the ATP Cup, then in decline. Haven't seen him since Australia, so can't gauge, but Machac has been steadier, if less impressive.

[CzechPunter]

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Arthur Rinderknech at 2.01 with Pinnacle

I can't have Basilashvili as the underdog here. He's generally unreliable, but he's done well in these tournaments before and he now smells his chance after getting through a much trickier opponent in Fucsovics. Rinderknech has that good win over Shapo, but that cuts two ways and he could be a bit deflated tomorrow. Also, this is a very decent match-up for Basilashvili, he's typically done well against these big hitter kind of opponents.

[raduvlad1995]

man I went to sleep when alcaraz and delbonis followed up to play and I wake up now in the morning to see they haven t even finished 1 set, what the hell ? Anyone knows when they re gonna resume play ?

[raduvlad1995]

I'll take agut today against khachanov, positive h2h and he's in insane form. Also maybe rublev but the odds are low, I just don t see him loosing to pouille though.

Edited February 18, 2022 by raduvlad1995

[Stanimal]

2 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

man I went to sleep when alcaraz and delbonis followed up to play and I wake up now in the morning to see they haven t even finished 1 set, what the hell ? Anyone knows when they re gonna resume play ?

After Berrettini vs Monteiro (start at 19.30 GMT +2)

[raduvlad1995]

44 minutes ago, Stanimal said:

After Berrettini vs Monteiro (start at 19.30 GMT +2)

so anoying, I slept for like 6 hours last night, wonder if it rained for that entire time since alcaraz was next up on the court.

[CzechPunter]

Yes, it rained heavily.

[raduvlad1995]

opinions about today's matches guys ? many very good matchups, but they are mostly well balanced and hard to predict .will bautista win over bashilashvili in doha this time ? alcaraz berretini, probably something with games over 20,21,22 ? rublev getting past another frenchie in marseille ?  then you have norrie paul, that also has a good shot of going the distance going by their gamestyles and previous meetings.

[CzechPunter]

Not getting involved myself after looking at the odds.

[888888]

in her last 3 matches Ostapenko has saved so many match points and come backs that the laws of average tell me she totally should not be here; of course winning those matches gave her huge confidence and she is a very good player but 3 times coming back from a set down against very good opponents which were favorites to beat her, and facing several match points, how long can one keep beating probability and odds like this? Any opinions on this?

 

[lelit]

It was a strange tournament; the will to fight of many wta players was non-existent, which is proved by the huge amount of the ue.
Forced to predict this match, I would bet 3 sets match.

[raduvlad1995]

started with 200 euros on 10'th of january this year and finaly after a month and a bit I ve reached 2k . Many thanks to bautista and felix who pulled through today.