Tennis Tips - February 14 - February 20

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Great to see the tennis threads being so active and we have PLENTY of action coming up this week as well!

Sebastian Korda to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis at 1.75 with Unibet

Kokkinakis had the run of his life back in Australia, despite that loss in the AO singles. Now, though, back on the road, I think his level will drop down a bit and Korda had a very good run in Delray Beach last year. He's also the better player overall and I think these odds would look alright had this match been in Australia, but not in the USA.

[raduvlad1995]

21 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Great to see the tennis threads being so active and we have PLENTY of action coming up this week as well!

Sebastian Korda to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis at 1.75 with Unibet

Kokkinakis had the run of his life back in Australia, despite that loss in the AO singles. Now, though, back on , I think his level will drop down a bit and Korda had a very good run in Delray Beach last . He's the better player overall and I think these odds would look alright had this match been in Australia, but not in the USA.

any opinions on van der zandschulp-fabiano and evans-gerasimov ? I think the dutch has too much for the italian if he plays his usual powerfull game , unfortunately even though I trust dan as a player , he's never played gerasimov and I don't realy understand what type of game gerasimov plays.

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

any opinions on van der zandschulp-fabiano and evans-gerasimov ? I think the dutch has too much for the italian if he plays his usual powerfull game , unfortunately even though I trust dan as a player , he's never played gerasimov and I don't realy understand what type of game gerasimov plays.

Software says van der Zandschulp wins, but the odds are just not great. van de Zandschulp put himself under too much pressure in Rotterdam (being a home tournament, maybe tried too hard if its possible). Am tempted to take a quad of Azarenka to beat Kudermetova, Jabeur to beat Zvonareva (at 1.3 it looks like a gift),  Soonwoo Kwon to beat Eubanks, and van de Zandschulp. Software gives a green light on all 4. Krejcikova also not great odds but Garcia simply has no chance to win this match, unless Krejicikova falls asleep.

                                                                                            Expected winner        Score

2/14/2022	B Krejcikova v C Garcia			B Krejcikova		0.12
2/15/2022	O Jabeur v V Zvonareva			O Jabeur		0.3
2/15/2022	V Azarenka v V Kudermetova			V Azarenka		0.33
2/14/2022	SW Kwon v C Eubanks			SW Kwon		0.4
2/14/2022	I Ivashka v N Gombos			I Ivashka		0.3
2/14/2022	M Kostyk v H Dart			M Kostyk	6-1  6-1	0.2
2/14/2022	B van de Zandschulp v T Fabbiano			Zandschulp		0.15

 

Predictions with highest confidence rating are Azarenka, Jabeur and Kwon.

Sorry, got dates wrong on Azarenka and Jabeur matches.

Edited February 14, 2022 by neilovan
Azarenka playing tomorrow

[CzechPunter]

Botic should be too strong indeed, but I saw him being strangely unmotivated in Australia. Not sure how that's changed now back elsewhere. As for Gerasimov, he has the power to outmuscle Evans, just depends if he shows up or not. I wouldn't back Evans at those odds for sure.

[four-leaf]

Isn't Vika still in decline with occasional ups? She's still not trustable enough for me and very much not when facing a capable player like Kudermetova.

[neilovan]

20 hours ago, neilovan said:

                                                                                            Expected winner        Score

2/14/2022	B Krejcikova v C Garcia			B Krejcikova	6-4 7-6	0.12
2/15/2022	O Jabeur v V Zvonareva			O Jabeur		0.3
2/15/2022	V Azarenka v V Kudermetova			V Azarenka		0.33
2/14/2022	SW Kwon v C Eubanks			SW Kwon	7-6 1-6 6-4	0.4
2/14/2022	I Ivashka v N Gombos			I Ivashka	7-6 6-3	0.3
2/14/2022	M Kostyk v H Dart			M Kostyk	6-1  6-1	0.2
2/14/2022	B van de Zandschulp v T Fabbiano			Zandschulp	6-2 7-6	0.15

Bets all won so far. Only one that was close was Kwon, who had a crazy second set. He broke at 4-4 3rd set and served out. Krejcikova was in total control and served a bad game at 5-4,  2nd set,

Not saying these low odds bets work all the time, but the best betting strategy, is to take them at the right times and combine the strategy with (fewer at lower stake) longer odds bets as the tournament progresses. The early parts of these tournaments offer these types of bets, but they become far more tricky in the later stages.

My feeling is that the Jabeur match is a perfect style matchup. Jabeur has a very similar style game to Barty (not as good obviously), but it's perfect against her opponent today. For me a comfortable win for Jabeur, who may start a little slowly here.

Azarenka is just a solid player. From August to now she played 23 matches, winning 17 times. 6 losses are against Sabalenka, Barty, Muguruza, Badosa, Swiatek and Krejcikova. You see her quality, beacuse she doesn't lose that often to lesser ranked players. In her 17 wins she won in straight sets 14 times. 3 bad losses came against Barty (6-0, 6-2) , Sabalenka (6-2, 6-4) and Krejcikova (6-2, 6-2).

 

Tournaments like Dubai offer prize money that just does not compare to the Majors. WInner at Dubai takes home $104 180. A first round loser at the Aussie open gets $103 000 (not sure if it's Aussie dollars). So for the top players, these tournaments are really not so much about the money. It's more keeping your match fitness, and your body sharp, and executing the strategies you have worked on in practice.  Also a place like Dubai is a great getaway in the dull European Winter, and a perfect place to put in the hard yards with big practice sessions. It's not gonna rain and you can practice/stretch/lift weights 7 hours a day if you want to.

 

I see a couple of potential upsets in the WTA in Dubai. Marta Kostyk is definitely capable of knocking out a big name. She's physically in great shape, looks to be a terrific athlete, with plenty of game. If Sabalenka has serving troubles (which is almost guaranteed), she could be in real trouble here. Until she gets that kink, wrist roll out of her serve it will remain unreliable. Only negative is that Kostyk is still very young, but it's a single bet that I will take.

Tomljanovic got into the main draw (as a lucky loser) after failing in qualifying. I think she may lose again today, against Vavara Gracheva, who won yesterday (dropped middle set to breaker, but won other two 6-1 6-3).

In a match where both players are at odds of 1.9 I like Begu to beat Yastremska. Begu been playing well. Comes off a very solid performance in St. Petersburg, where she reached the semi's (losing to Sakkari). Run included a 6-4 6-0 demolition of Petra Kvitova, and should give her some confidence to bring her best game.

I definitely think Lloyd Harris beats Fucsovics in Doha today. Harris is the dog at even money, but has far more game than Fucsovics. If he wakes from his Dec/Jan slumber this is a straight forward win. Just has to serve half decently. Would be going the Harris, Mertens, Svitolina treble.

Musetti should also triumph over Elias Ymer. Musetti looking pretty good, with a decent showing in Rotterdam, has too much game for Ymer and probably overpowers him. Not a blowout but regulation stuff (4 and 3).

Software didn't like much today except these 2 matches;

2/15/2022	E Svitolina v M Sherif			E Svitolina		0.18
2/15/2022	E Mertens v J Teichmann			E Mertens		0.45

Mertens v Teichmann a little marginal for me, but Teichmann did not have a good Australia swing, and did not play that well at the end of last year. Her numbers are inflated by a great run from the Western and Southern last year, where she lost in the final. Mertens looks stronger and definitely fitter than last year.

Good luck for today.

Edited February 15, 2022 by neilovan
spelling mistake

[raduvlad1995]

19 hours ago, neilovan said:

Software says van der Zandschulp wins, but the odds are just not great. van de Zandschulp put himself under too much pressure in Rotterdam (being a home , maybe tried too hard if its possible). Am tempted to take of Azarenka to beat Kudermetova, Jabeur to beat Zvonareva (at 1.3 it looks like a gift),  Soonwoo Kwon to beat Eubanks, and van de Zandschulp. Software gives a green light on all 4. Krejcikova not great odds but Garcia has no chance to win this match, unless Krejicikova falls asleep.

                                                                                            Expected winner        Score

2/14/2022	B Krejcikova v C Garcia			B Krejcikova		0.12
2/15/2022	O Jabeur v V Zvonareva			O Jabeur		0.3
2/15/2022	V Azarenka v V Kudermetova			V Azarenka		0.33
2/14/2022	SW Kwon v C Eubanks			SW Kwon		0.4
2/14/2022	I Ivashka v N Gombos			I Ivashka		0.3
2/14/2022	M Kostyk v H Dart			M Kostyk	6-1  6-1	0.2
2/14/2022	B van de Zandschulp v T Fabbiano			Zandschulp		0.15

 

Predictions with highest rating are Azarenka, Jabeur and Kwon.

Sorry, got dates wrong on Azarenka and Jabeur matches.

what software are you guys using ? I'm realy out on the loop on this one. In the end I bet on both zandschulp and evans yesterday and today I have korda left (took it from czechpunter tbh since I trust his inputs).

[neilovan]

1 hour ago, raduvlad1995 said:

what software are you guys using ? I'm realy out on the loop on this one. In the end I bet on both zandschulp and evans yesterday and today I have korda left (took it from czechpunter tbh since I trust his inputs).

My background is computers and programming, so I can write my own.  I am running machine learning models over the data (tennis-data.co.uk and data sets from Jeff Sackman), that are written in python. I also am a BI developer, so I have 1 main dashboard written in Tableau, that does predictive analysis. Both are delivering similar results. I find that variable staking depending on predictive confidence and odds makes a huge difference. I'm still messing around and tweaking stuff but am feeling pretty confident, as the results are from 188 bets. Hoping to have things ready for the clay court Euro swing and start firing proper sized bullets.

Edited February 15, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

Great weather, wall-to-wall blue sky,  2 croissants, scrambled eggs, Honey and marmalade, cup of coffee and some tennis which starts at 10.30 (8.30 uk).

PerfectoMundo! ? 

Edited February 15, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Bets all won so far. that was close was Kwon, who had a crazy second set. He broke at 4-4 3rd set and served out. Krejcikova was in total control and served a bad game at 5-4,  2nd set,

Not saying these low odds bets work all the time, but the best betting , is to take them at the right times and combine with (fewer at lower stake) longer odds bets as progresses. The early parts of these tournaments offer these types of bets, but they become far more tricky in the later stages.

My feeling is that the Jabeur match is a perfect style matchup. Jabeur has a very similar style game to Barty (not as good obviously), but it's perfect against her opponent . For me a comfortable win for Jabeur, who may start a little here.

Azarenka is just a solid player. From August to now she played 23 matches, winning 17 times. 6 losses are against Sabalenka, Barty, Muguruza, Badosa, Swiatek and Krejcikova. You see her , beacuse she doesn't lose that to lesser ranked players. In her 17 wins she won in straight sets 14 times. 3 bad losses came against Barty (6-0, 6-2) , Sabalenka (6-2, 6-4) and Krejcikova (6-2, 6-2).

 

Tournaments like Dubai offer prize that just does not compare to the Majors. WInner at Dubai takes home $104 180. A round loser at the Aussie open gets $103 000 (not sure if it's Aussie dollars). So for the top players, these tournaments are not so much about . It's more keeping your match , and your sharp, and executing the you have worked on in practice.  Also a place like Dubai is a great getaway in the dull European Winter, and a perfect place to put in the hard yards with big practice sessions. It's not gonna rain and you can practice/stretch/lift weights 7 hours if you want to.

 

I see a couple of potential upsets in the WTA in Dubai. Marta Kostyk is capable of knocking out a big name. She's in great shape, looks to be a terrific , with plenty of game. If Sabalenka has serving troubles (which is guaranteed), she could be in real trouble here. Until she gets that kink, roll out of her serve it will remain unreliable. Only negative is that Kostyk is still very young, but it's a single bet that I will take.

Tomljanovic got into the main draw (as a lucky loser) after failing in qualifying. I think she may lose again , against Vavara Gracheva, who won yesterday (dropped set to breaker, but won other two 6-1 6-3).

In a match where both players are at odds of 1.9 I like Begu to beat Yastremska. Begu been playing well. Comes off a very solid in St. Petersburg, where she reached the semi's (losing to Sakkari). Run included a 6-4 6-0 of Petra Kvitova, and should give her some to bring her best game.

I think Lloyd Harris beats Fucsovics in Doha . Harris is the dog at even , but has far more game than Fucsovics. If he wakes from his Dec/Jan slumber this is a straight forward win. Just has to serve half decently. Would be going the Harris, Mertens, Svitolina treble.

Musetti should also triumph over Elias Ymer. Musetti looking pretty good, with a decent showing in Rotterdam, has too much game for Ymer and overpowers . Not a blowout but regulation stuff (4 and 3).

Software didn't like much today except these 2 matches;

2/15/2022	E Svitolina v M Sherif			E Svitolina		0.18
2/15/2022	E Mertens v J Teichmann			E Mertens		0.45

Mertens v Teichmann a little marginal for me, but Teichmann did not have a good Australia swing, and did not play that well at the end of last year. Her numbers are inflated by a great run from the Western and Southern last year, where she lost in the final. Mertens looks stronger and definitely fitter than last year.

Good luck for today.

Well I screwed up then if harris easily trounces fucsovis, since I went with the hungarian to take a set today. I just don t trust harris at this moment, and I feel fucsovis who's been prety good in rotterdam will be a hard player for him to wake up against. Also fucsovis did beat him in this same tourney last year, I actualy think whilst harris has bigger weapons , that he is far less crafty and mobile compared to marton.

[raduvlad1995]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

My is and programming, so I can write my own.  I am running learning models over the (tennis-.co.uk and data sets from Jeff Sackman), that are written in . I also am a BI , so I have 1 main dashboard written in Tableau, that does predictive . Both are delivering . I find that variable staking depending on predictive and odds makes a huge . I'm still messing around and tweaking stuff but am feeling pretty confident, as are from 188 bets. Hoping to have things ready for court Euro swing and start firing proper sized bullets.

are you gonna launch like an app that has all that you've said imbeded into it ?

[neilovan]

7 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

are you gonna launch like an app that has all that you've said imbeded into it ?

Unfortunately not. I'll have to keep it for myself.

[CzechPunter]

Tuned into Alcaraz Munar late last night and I was bamboozled, really, tennis still can throw the occasional strange occurence. Munar was awful previously, but Alcaraz couldn't get past him in the first set. Then, in one snap, it fell right into the place where it should've been from the very beginning!

[neilovan]

40 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

Well I screwed up then if harris easily trounces fucsovis, since I went with the hungarian to take a set today. I just don t trust harris at this moment, and I feel fucsovis who's been prety good in rotterdam will be a hard player for him to wake up against. Also fucsovis did beat him in this same tourney last year, I actualy think whilst harris has bigger weapons , that he is far less crafty and mobile compared to marton.

Harris is so flaky at the moment. He has these in-match brain farts. But if he plays properly he should win in my opinion.  Hopefully in 3?

Edited February 15, 2022 by neilovan
​   Hopefully in 3? ​

[neilovan]

Just now, CzechPunter said:

Tuned into Alcaraz Munar late last night and I was bamboozled, really, tennis still can throw the occasional strange occurence. Munar was awful previously, but Alcaraz couldn't get past him in the first set. Then, in one snap, it fell right into the place where it should've been from the very beginning!

That Alcaraz can be so odd. Dunno what game I watched where he was 5-0 or 4-0 up and lost 6 in a row? Maybe against Gaston last year.

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, neilovan said:

2/15/2022	E Svitolina v M Sherif			E Svitolina		0.18
2/15/2022	E Mertens v J Teichmann			E Mertens		0.45

Didn't much like that Mertens match. She actually played pretty badly, losing her serve all day and winning 1/6 or 1/7 break points. No improvement from last year, but most make such minor improvements it's very hard to tell the difference.  Begu blew up after winning the 1st set. Not betting huge money on odds greater than about 4.5 to 10. For me most of those games are a complete lottery, and the momentum in the woman's game is crazy.

Svitolina won, and Jabeur cruising along. Please , please stay awake and focused, and just finish this off. It should be a no contest!

Glad I avoided Badosa having a meltdown from 4-1 up in the 3rd, losing it 6-4. Fantastic ball striker, with a bang average serve ... that has to get much better if she ever expects to win a major.

[neilovan]

20 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Isn't Vika still in decline with occasional ups? She's still not trustable enough for me and very much not when facing a capable player like Kudermetova.

Good call there. Players just coming for a holiday and totally under cooked. 

Sat through the Jabeur v Zvonerava match which was borderline atrocious. I think Jabeur made 68 unforced errors in the match, 1st game of the 3rd set Zvonerava served 3 doubles,  made 4 unforced errors and still won the game. Shows you how well Jabeur was playing. What a pile of garbage. 

[Torque]

Continuing my run of backing underdogs and even though it's not been a successful strategy recently, I've got to back Goffin in Doha today. The Belgian may well be in the midst of a career slump, but I just can't have it that he's given only about a 20% chance of beating Ruusuvuori. The Finn comes into this match after choking the Maharashtra final, where he was a very heavy favourite to win his first ATP Tour title. That can be a hard thing to get over, so if there's any kind of hangover here I can see Goffin taking advantage.

10pts Goffin to beat Ruusuvuori @ 4.50 365

[Torque]

13 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Good call there. Players just coming for a holiday and totally under cooked. 

Sat through the Jabeur v Zvonerava match which was borderline atrocious. I think Jabeur made 68 unforced errors in the match, 1st game of the 3rd set Zvonerava served 3 doubles,  made 4 unforced errors and still won the game. Shows you how well Jabeur was playing. What a pile of garbage. 

Looks like wind is a factor here. Maybe that explains all the errors, although Jabeur's always had a lot of errors in her.

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, really hard to call. You'd think that we are now well past the Australian Open and there's a good prize fund as well, so everyone will be spot on. The reality is a bit different, though, and Jabeur was awful today, as was Badosa.

[lelit]

Ostapenko 3.1 (bf) against Swiatek? What is the basis of this odd??

Edited February 15, 2022 by lelit

[Torque]

17 minutes ago, lelit said:

Ostapenko 3.1 (bf) against Swiatek? What is the basis of this odd??

Ostapenko's inconsistency I'd say. If you could rely on her for a steady level of performance then I'm sure her odds would be shorter.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Good call there. Players just coming for a holiday and totally under cooked. 

Sat through the Jabeur v Zvonerava match which was borderline atrocious. I think Jabeur made 68 unforced errors in the match, 1st game of the 3rd set Zvonerava served 3 doubles,  made 4 unforced errors and still won the game. Shows you how well Jabeur was playing. What a pile of garbage. 

Yupp, Vika is in decline so please don't make the mistake to back her in the future. Vika will still be the same player as she's been since her comeback even though she might reach some finals. But has she won any final since her comeback by acctually playing? No, retirement by Muguruza and walkover from Osaka.

[vvararu]

2 hours ago, Torque said:

Continuing my run of backing underdogs and even though it's not been a successful strategy recently, I've got to back Goffin in Doha today. The Belgian may well be in the midst of a career slump, but I just can't have it that he's given only about a 20% chance of beating Ruusuvuori. The Finn comes into this match after choking the Maharashtra final, where he was a very heavy favourite to win his first ATP Tour title. That can be a hard thing to get over, so if there's any kind of hangover here I can see Goffin taking advantage.

10pts Goffin to beat Ruusuvuori @ 4.50 365

Like this as well. Any type of positive handicap would be nice as well

[neilovan]

48 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Yupp, Vika is in decline so please don't make the mistake to back her in the future. Vika will still be the same player as she's been since her comeback even though she might reach some finals. But has she won any final since her comeback by acctually playing? No, retirement by Muguruza and walkover from Osaka.

I'm trying a system, so if I start manually overriding things the whole thing becomes worthless. But there is a sweet spot to getting the staking right, so the Azarenka and Mertens games are not mega setbacks, but still quite annoying. Always hate losing even a single bet. I think there might be some value in looking at major and 'other' results. Some people just show up for the other to collect a payday, but bring 100% at the majors.

Edited February 15, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

well fucsovis won, and he actualy kind of chocked before the tiebreak. Let's see what korda and lajovic do later on.

[raduvlad1995]

8 hours ago, neilovan said:

That Alcaraz can be so odd. Dunno what game I watched where he was 5-0 or 4-0 up and lost 6 in a row? Maybe against Gaston last year.

well he's still 18 ...for a teenager he's damn solid mentaly.

[Torque]

5 hours ago, Torque said:

Continuing my run of backing underdogs and even though it's not been a successful strategy recently, I've got to back Goffin in Doha today. The Belgian may well be in the midst of a career slump, but I just can't have it that he's given only about a 20% chance of beating Ruusuvuori. The Finn comes into this match after choking the Maharashtra final, where he was a very heavy favourite to win his first ATP Tour title. That can be a hard thing to get over, so if there's any kind of hangover here I can see Goffin taking advantage.

10pts Goffin to beat Ruusuvuori @ 4.50 365

Fairly grim from Goffin. From 6-4, 4-2 it looks like he's only going to win one more game. Still, I'm happy enough with the idea his price was too high.

[vvararu]

I got Goffin +1 set handicap @1.89 ???