Racing Chat - Sunday 30th January

[Zilzalian]

3 hours ago, gbettle said:

Did someone mention Southwell changing surface?

Check out this fascinating thread on FlatStats about the change to Tapeta - the machines that work the track are too small and have to work the track twice which makes the mid-stalls surface harder than low or high stalls ?

TL;DR:

"Why is There a Bias?

Possibly because of double compaction. The width of the machines that work the track are not sufficient to do a single pass so the track has to be worked twice - on the left and on the right. This means the middle gets worked twice and at that area the surface is much faster than at low or high.

So why don't jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand. "

I remember many years ago when there were only 3 aw tracks that harrowing of the surface even over a relatively short time pushes material to the outsides making it deeper, i cant quite remember what difference this made but i do know it was quite significant on the inside rail (i think stall one at Lingfield was a nightmare whereas stall 2 wasn't), you would think that would apply to the outside rail also but the simple explanation is/was that the horses don't race that far out.

[gbettle]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

I remember many years ago when there were only 3 aw tracks that harrowing of the surface even over a relatively short time pushes material to the outsides making it deeper, i cant quite remember what difference this made but i do know it was quite significant on the inside rail (i think stall one at Lingfield was a nightmare whereas stall 2 wasn't), you would think that would apply to the outside rail also but the simple explanation is/was that the horses don't race that far out.

I knew zilch about the 80yrd rule until now:

"So why don't jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand. "

 

[MCLARKE]

Fascinating stuff, are we going to take the plunge on Thursday or is the cat out of the bag ?

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Fascinating stuff, are we going to take the plunge on Thursday or is the cat out of the bag ?

It will be interesting to see what happens to the betting patterns v tissue as regard to the draw, if its out of the bag they (the ones with the advantage) should all contract one would think.

[gbettle]

4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Fascinating stuff, are we going to take the plunge on Thursday or is the cat out of the bag ?

Indeed, I will have a go.

I've had a go at the placepot since reading about Southwell surface change to Tapeta. But Thursday's card is a mid-day meeting so the prize fund and dividend will be smaller.

Might just lay stalls 1-5 in any race when 6f+ and 10+ runners.

[Wildgarden]

12 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Fascinating stuff, are we going to take the plunge on Thursday or is the cat out of the bag ?

i been on it already lol

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm doing 3 Trixies today and staking 10 points.  After considering all the arguments I have to agree with @gbettleI would have to be bonkers to back these in singles and especially so to go on a retrieval mission should the first one or two selections in the earlier legs of the Trixie fail

12.30 Sed Betty Baloo 11/8

2.50 Font Aristocrate 6/5

3.00 Sed Dalkinstown Evens

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 24.83 pts

 

1.20 Font American Gerry evens

1.50 Font Checkitout 11/8

2.00 Sed Heartbreak Kid 7/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 30.99 pts

 

1.30 Sed Anyharminasking 4/5

2.20 Font Encoeur 11/4

4.20 Font Hardy Fella 13/8

1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return of 19.5 points

I have given up single bets in opposition to Trixie selections, I am now favouring alternative Trixies when availalble

10 points staked

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Oddly enough my strongest Trixie failed miserably.  I managed to get a double each out of the other two which meant that I incurred a small loss of 1.09 points.  This makes my MTD/YTD loss is at -63.02

Three UK Meetings tomorrow with a number of races where the favourites are over evens so I should be able to find a Trixie or two

Great to have @richard-westwoodback on the forum, I guess his strategy works best at the festival meetings in very wide-open handicap races.  I do look forward to his future posts and helping PL members make some money ?

 

[MCLARKE]

Updated draw info for Southwell.

Draw 1-3 9% SR 0.87 AE

Draw 4-9 11% SR 1.12 AE

Draw 10-14 7% SR 0.84 AE

For draw 4-9 the record for distances greater than 7 furlongs is 13% SR and 1.26 AR

For 1st 4 in the betting 26% SR 1.49 AE

Finished in the 1st 4 last time 24% SR 1.43 AE

2 races over 7f tomorrow, the 4.00 and 4.30

[Wildgarden]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Updated draw info for Southwell.

Draw 1-3 9% SR 0.87 AE

Draw 4-9 11% SR 1.12 AE

Draw 10-14 7% SR 0.84 AE

For draw 4-19 the record for distances greater than 7 furlongs is 13% SR and 1.26 AR

For 1st 4 in the betting 26% SR 1.49 AE

Finished in the 1st 4 last time 24% SR 1.43 AE

2 races over 7f tomorrow, the 4.00 and 4.30

great work. 

[Budgie 65]

Why not just go with form

300 sou spring is sprung into 13/8 not even 10 pm is my NB because of new surface