Racing Chat - Sunday 30th January

[MCLARKE]

NH selection

Naas 12.40

STATTLER 13/8

[LEE-GRAYS]

4.10 nass unheralded 40/1 e/w bet365

[richard-westwood]

Been working hard on my ratings .....and after a lot of hard work and altering and testing I've had a fabulous few monthes so I haven't changed anything for quite some time now  and with cheltenham coming thought it was time to test it on the big stage now lol ....I really think it's ready .....

It's an unusual method ......you have to back the top 4 rated in order to capture the big priced winners which pop up and they do pop up a lot with this system .....and I don't back with anything else now ...its that good 

Just an example race today to get warmed up....sedge 230 

My top 4 rated are 

Be the difference 9.0 6/1 

Onehundredpercent 8.5 5/1 

Fight for rose   7.0  6/1 

Kajaki   6.7  9/1 

You back 1pt wins all 4 most of time ....this race is just low class and prices cramped so return woukd be small but its done brilliantly in the big races with yesterday's skybet chase finishing 2nd and 4th at 12/1 and 28/1 ..... ...I'll sometimes back ew over 10/1 on big races with loads places as the placing is scarily good sometimes but like I said with chelt coming it needs it's time in the sun now really so let's see if it can fly ....I really think it will be brilliant at the festival ...potentially the strongest hand I've ever played but it needs to prove it .....so I'll get stuck into as many races as I can over the coming month to get my speed so I'm ready 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

Good to see you back Richard.

[azzybear]

Hyde Park 12.15 Betty balloo 12.30

[alexcaruso808]

Good seeing you here again, Richard.  

My selections for today....

Meydan

12.15 - Edaraat - 4.00 - 6th

12.50 - Just You Wait - 4.50 - 9th

            Rastrelli 5.50 - 4th

1.25 - Wheels on Fire - 9.50 - 15th 

2.00 - Monoski - 3.25 - 5th

All bets £1 to win.

Good luck.

------

These picks of mine are absolutely horrific.  

Edited January 30, 2022 by alexcaruso808

[The Equaliser]

I'm doing 3 Trixies today and staking 10 points.  After considering all the arguments I have to agree with @gbettleI would have to be bonkers to back these in singles and especially so to go on a retrieval mission should the first one or two selections in the earlier legs of the Trixie fail

12.30 Sed Betty Baloo 11/8

2.50 Font Aristocrate 6/5

3.00 Sed Dalkinstown Evens

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 24.83 pts

 

1.20 Font American Gerry evens

1.50 Font Checkitout 11/8

2.00 Sed Heartbreak Kid 7/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 30.99 pts

 

1.30 Sed Anyharminasking 4/5

2.20 Font Encoeur 11/4

4.20 Font Hardy Fella 13/8

1 x 2 pt win Trixie = poss return of 19.5 points

I have given up single bets in opposition to Trixie selections, I am now favouring alternative Trixies when availalble

10 points staked

 

[The Equaliser]

45 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Been working hard on my ratings .....and after a lot of hard work and altering and testing I've had a fabulous few monthes so I haven't changed anything for quite some time now  and with cheltenham coming thought it was time to test it on the big stage now lol ....I really think it's ready .....

It's an unusual method ......you have to back the top 4 rated in order to capture the big priced winners which pop up and they do pop up a lot with this system .....and I don't back with anything else now ...its that good 

Just an example race today to get warmed up....sedge 230 

My top 4 rated are 

Be the difference 9.0 6/1 

Onehundredpercent 8.5 5/1 

Fight for rose   7.0  6/1 

Kajaki   6.7  9/1 

You back 1pt wins all 4 most of time ....this race is just low class and prices cramped so return woukd be small but its done brilliantly in the big races with yesterday's skybet chase finishing 2nd and 4th at 12/1 and 28/1 ..... ...I'll sometimes back ew over 10/1 on big races with loads places as the placing is scarily good sometimes but like I said with chelt coming it needs it's time in the sun now really so let's see if it can fly ....I really think it will be brilliant at the festival ...potentially the strongest hand I've ever played but it needs to prove it .....so I'll get stuck into as many races as I can over the coming month to get my speed so I'm ready 

 

 

All very interesting.  I have never worked out how to make a profit using ratings so It is going to be an enlightening experience if you post up your selections regularly.  Quite often I find with the RPR and Timeform ratings that they are so close together that it is difficult to determine which ones come within the first 3 or 4.  Timeform have no 5. Jelskie (1) 10.  Hungry Tiger (2) and 2. Be The Difference  & 4. Storm Lorenzo as joint 3rd.  RPR top rates Kajak and has Dakota Beat at 50/1 second top rated.   Good luck today

 

[Wildgarden]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

Been working hard on my ratings .....and after a lot of hard work and altering and testing I've had a fabulous few monthes so I haven't changed anything for quite some time now  and with cheltenham coming thought it was time to test it on the big stage now lol ....I really think it's ready .....

It's an unusual method ......you have to back the top 4 rated in order to capture the big priced winners which pop up and they do pop up a lot with this system .....and I don't back with anything else now ...its that good 

Just an example race today to get warmed up....sedge 230 

My top 4 rated are 

Be the difference 9.0 6/1 

Onehundredpercent 8.5 5/1 

Fight for rose   7.0  6/1 

Kajaki   6.7  9/1 

You back 1pt wins all 4 most of time ....this race is just low class and prices cramped so return woukd be small but its done brilliantly in the big races with yesterday's skybet chase finishing 2nd and 4th at 12/1 and 28/1 ..... ...I'll sometimes back ew over 10/1 on big races with loads places as the placing is scarily good sometimes but like I said with chelt coming it needs it's time in the sun now really so let's see if it can fly ....I really think it will be brilliant at the festival ...potentially the strongest hand I've ever played but it needs to prove it .....so I'll get stuck into as many races as I can over the coming month to get my speed so I'm ready 

 

 

nice to see you back. duno if u seen my ratings lately up and down but a lot up

[richard-westwood]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

All very interesting.  I have never worked out how to make a profit using ratings so It is going to be an enlightening experience if you post up your selections regularly.  Quite often I find with the RPR and Timeform ratings that they are so close together that it is difficult to determine which ones come within the first 3 or 4.  Timeform have no 5. Jelskie (1) 10.  Hungry Tiger (2) and 2. Be The Difference  & 4. Storm Lorenzo as joint 3rd.  RPR top rates Kajak and has Dakota Beat at 50/1 second top rated.   Good luck today

 

I actually don't even need to look at form anymore ....I rate the race ....put bets on and check ......most of time your just winning 2 or 3pts so sometimes it can slow but then a 16/1 will go in .....then a 20 /1 .....and you jump forward ......I put 100pts in few monthes ago and got the bank up to 191 pts .....took it all out ...  family expense lol .....then put 150 back in later on and managed to get up to 234 so I've been really really pleased with it .....I just hope it carrys on doing what it's doing because it should be perfect for chelt .....andxreally shoukd be even better there with big prices on offer 

[richard-westwood]

2 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

nice to see you back. duno if u seen my ratings lately up and down but a lot up

Nice to see your still rating ......ivexslways been convinced its the strongest hand you can play......now I only back ratings ....it was hard to blindly trust but they've proven good time and time and time again .....so I'm a lot more confident now ......its nice tbh ....makes racing much more enjoyable 

[azzybear]

gordens jet 1.30 saver

[Wildgarden]

22 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Nice to see your still rating ......ivexslways been convinced its the strongest hand you can play......now I only back ratings ....it was hard to blindly trust but they've proven good time and time and time again .....so I'm a lot more confident now ......its nice tbh ....makes racing much more enjoyable 

dont do for everything just ones i havent got systems or info for

[The Equaliser]

43 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I actually don't even need to look at form anymore ....I rate the race ....put bets on and check ......most of time your just winning 2 or 3pts so sometimes it can slow but then a 16/1 will go in .....then a 20 /1 .....and you jump forward ......I put 100pts in few monthes ago and got the bank up to 191 pts .....took it all out ...  family expense lol .....then put 150 back in later on and managed to get up to 234 so I've been really really pleased with it .....I just hope it carrys on doing what it's doing because it should be perfect for chelt .....andxreally shoukd be even better there with big prices on offer 

Do you still use something like a 4 pronged approach to your ratings from what I remember before or have you changed the way in which you do them?

 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Been working hard on my ratings .....and after a lot of hard work and altering and testing I've had a fabulous few monthes so I haven't changed anything for quite some time now  and with cheltenham coming thought it was time to test it on the big stage now lol ....I really think it's ready .....

It's an unusual method ......you have to back the top 4 rated in order to capture the big priced winners which pop up and they do pop up a lot with this system .....and I don't back with anything else now ...its that good 

Just an example race today to get warmed up....sedge 230 

My top 4 rated are 

Be the difference 9.0 6/1 

Onehundredpercent 8.5 5/1 

Fight for rose   7.0  6/1 

Kajaki   6.7  9/1 

You back 1pt wins all 4 most of time ....this race is just low class and prices cramped so return woukd be small but its done brilliantly in the big races with yesterday's skybet chase finishing 2nd and 4th at 12/1 and 28/1 ..... ...I'll sometimes back ew over 10/1 on big races with loads places as the placing is scarily good sometimes but like I said with chelt coming it needs it's time in the sun now really so let's see if it can fly ....I really think it will be brilliant at the festival ...potentially the strongest hand I've ever played but it needs to prove it .....so I'll get stuck into as many races as I can over the coming month to get my speed so I'm ready 

 

 

Well done as Kajaki wins at 14/1 ?  

[Bang on]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

I actually don't even need to look at form anymore ....I rate the race ....put bets on and check ......most of time your just winning 2 or 3pts so sometimes it can slow but then a 16/1 will go in .....then a 20 /1 .....and you jump forward ......I put 100pts in few monthes ago and got the bank up to 191 pts .....took it all out ...  family expense lol .....then put 150 back in later on and managed to get up to 234 so I've been really really pleased with it .....I just hope it carrys on doing what it's doing because it should be perfect for chelt .....andxreally shoukd be even better there with big prices on offer 

Good to see you back Richard.

You say that you used a 100pt bank, then a 150pt bank (nothing wrong with that), my question is - How many points do you think that you require to be successful ? My thoughts are that if 100pts was big enough, why dilute the bank to 150pts instead of increasing the amount each point is worth ?

[richard-westwood]

31 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Good to see you back Richard.

You say that you used a 100pt bank, then a 150pt bank (nothing wrong with that), my question is - How many points do you think that you require to be successful ? My thoughts are that if 100pts was big enough, why dilute the bank to 150pts instead of increasing the amount each point is worth ?

It was mainly cos I had the 150 handy and I could afford to lose lol .....and only losing 4pts on average it a fairly safe system.....well so far ......but today's is typical ....the outsiders can go in at any price but you need to back all 4 because do many times the 4th rated goes in a huge price .....

It's very similar to before ......5 or 6 fields depending on type of race .....but it works on all weather .....jumps ....anything with just slight tweaks ....I.e ...extra point for surface on all weather .....and taking in to account dist and racetype on jumps etc 

[Wildgarden]

2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

It was mainly cos I had the 150 handy and I could afford to lose lol .....and only losing 4pts on average it a fairly safe system.....well so far ......but today's is typical ....the outsiders can go in at any price but you need to back all 4 because do many times the 4th rated goes in a huge price .....

It's very similar to before ......5 or 6 fields depending on type of race .....but it works on all weather .....jumps ....anything with just slight tweaks ....I.e ...extra point for surface on all weather .....and taking in to account dist and racetype on jumps etc 

how u judge change to all weather. yday i had one which chnaged to all weather that won and i had unexposed to the going and trip as a plus?

[richard-westwood]

If the course is say wolv ...tapeta ...I'll give an extra point if the horse has placed at wolv ...newc or now southwell (since changed) .....its seems to make a big difference to the strike rate and has been working well .....likewise ling kemp snd chelm are bundled too as they are faster 

If coming off turf it's harder .....ibdont give them the extra point for surface but if their form is very strong they can still be in you 4 and qualify so I just trust thexratings 

Edited January 30, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Wildgarden]

6 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

If the course is say wolv ...tapeta ...I'll give an extra point if the horse has placed at wolv ...newc or now southwell (since changed) .....its seems to make a big difference to the strike rate and has been working well .....likewise ling kemp snd chelm are bundled too as they are faster 

ah okay yeah i do that, but i thought u meant turf to all weather lol

Edited January 30, 2022 by Wildgarden

[fd1972uk]

Only did one bet Demi Sang at sedgefield 400, cam. In 2nd unfortunately. 

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

After considering all the arguments I have to agree with @gbettleI would have to be bonkers to back these in singles

Why would you be bonkers to back in singles ?

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

NH selection

Naas 12.40

STATTLER 13/8

Won. BSP 2.14

A welcome winner after a poor run of 11 losers.

17 / 46, lsp + 2.06

[gbettle]

Did someone mention Southwell changing surface?

Check out this fascinating thread on FlatStats about the change to Tapeta - the machines that work the track are too small and have to work the track twice which makes the mid-stalls surface harder than low or high stalls ?

TL;DR:

"Why is There a Bias?

Possibly because of double compaction. The width of the machines that work the track are not sufficient to do a single pass so the track has to be worked twice - on the left and on the right. This means the middle gets worked twice and at that area the surface is much faster than at low or high.

So why don't jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand. "

[MCLARKE]

This was my comment at the start of January 

"Early days but so far middle drawn horses have performed best. 1-5 18/225, AE 0.83 6-9 24/165, AE 1.52 10-14 6/146, AE 0.56"

This backs up your comment, I wonder if punters have caught on yet ?

[Wildgarden]

6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

This was my comment at the start of January 

"Early days but so far middle drawn horses have performed best. 1-5 18/225, AE 0.83 6-9 24/165, AE 1.52 10-14 6/146, AE 0.56"

This backs up your comment, I wonder if punters have caught on yet ?

just back 6-9 outright happy days lol. or 8 and 9 as they the main ones... early days though best see few more months yet to draw conclusions.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

8 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

just back 6-9 outright happy days lol. or 8 and 9 as they the main ones... early days though best see few more months yet to draw conclusions.

also handicap only... 7, 8 and 9. done these under 11-1 otherwise one big winner messes the stats for bias.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Wildgarden

[Wildgarden]

the 6-7f stats are crazy btw lets hope putting these up doesnt blow our game ?

backing 4-5 7-9... why 6 struggles might just be that its not enough data and will even out? and the lower and higher will suffer even more. higher distances it evens a bit more as the advantage wains. youd think 5f would also be good but its -59% roi as the low runners going to middle quickly on the straight course. outsiders mainly profitable 5f there though overall... if backing at betfair exchnage price.

Edited January 30, 2022 by Wildgarden

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Why would you be bonkers to back in singles ?

I was more thinking of recovery bets when the first bet loses.  E.g if all the prices of selections were evens and then after the first selection lost I placed 4 units on the second to get out at B/E then I would be 8 points down.  If that one lost and I placed 8 points on the next bet and that one lost I would be a total of 16 points down in relation to an original 4 points bet.

In relation to singles bets in their own right versus the multiple bets for February and hopefully onwards I will record the equivalent return on singles bets versus my multiple bets.  I think I'm right when I say that you think that long term the results will be the same and that it will possibly take me longer to reach the same amount of profits with multiple bets as opposed to single bets assuming of course that the bets are of value in the first place.  I think that if I can click with combining the right selections then I can do better.  I will just have to wait and see if I'm right.

Today I had two doubles in for 10 points and this returned 8.91 points so a small loss of 1.09.  Just putting 1 point on all 9 selections would have returned 9.56 points at the odds I achieved so you are right today ?   

[gbettle]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

the 6-7f stats are crazy btw lets hope putting these up doesnt blow our game ?

backing 4-5 7-9... why 6 struggles might just be that its not enough data and will even out? and the lower and higher will suffer even more.

 

Read the FS thread and you'll see a clear advantage is show when 6f+ and 10 or more runners.

Or just LAY stall 1-5 ?: