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Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022


gbettle
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Howdy all,

Hope this message finds everyone well - roll on Cheltenham.

Speaking of Cheltenham, I've read an interesting theory*, that, "in non handicap chases leading up to Cheltenham the favourites do disproportionally well as the uncompetitive nature of the racing due to the festival approaching led to small fields and underbet favourites."

From that article TL;DR: 

"... in simple numbers qualifiers from February favourites have shown a profit since 1998 to 2019 in 15 months and a loss in only 7 months to SP (starting price, *not used BSP as not going that long) and an overall profit to SP of 5.5% with an A/E 1.1. Incredible really on a massive sample size of 1600 qualifiers on short prices at SP."

I've checked that - with Adrian Massey - and indeed a BSP profit is achieved:

  • 2012 to 2021, 630 bets, 330 winners, 109.2% returns
  • remove the novice chases:  2012 to 2021, 321 bets, 179 winners, 119.0% returns

Would anyone be kind enough to peer review these \ collaborate with their own another source\dataset? 

* - https://www.mylittletip.co.uk/post/knowing-too-much

 

Favs non-hcap chases Feb 2012-2021 to BSP.jpg

Favs non-hcap chases Feb 2012-2021 exclude novices to BSP.jpg

2022-02 feb non-hcap chases.jpg

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1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

I only have numbers for the last 8 years but these do show positive returns.

For December and January I have 46 winners from 117 runners with an AE of 1.11.

Hurdles have an AE of 1.22, chases 0.84.

Worryingly, the last 3 years have all shown losses !

Maybe has something to do with the dreaded ' bookmaker S.P's' as opposed to true market forces.

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15 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I only have numbers for the last 8 years but these do show positive returns.

For December and January I have 46 winners from 117 runners with an AE of 1.11.

Hurdles have an AE of 1.22, chases 0.84.

Worryingly, the last 3 years have all shown losses !

Remember the whole premise is in February, the month before the festival. I looked at my own dwh - RP and BSP datasets - and all other months were dire, only adding strength to the OP's original February dataset.

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I've had another look.

For the years 2014 to 2021 I get 194 winners from 382 runners with an AE of 1.024.

For some reason French bred have an exceptional record, with 82 winners from 134 runners and an AE of 1.20. Irish bred are 88 from 200 with an AE of 0.91.

1st last time out 58 from 105 with an AE of 1.05.

As you say, novices have a poor record so exclude them and you are left with 100 from 199 with an AE of 1.06.

Hot favourites may be best avoided, those with a BSP of less than 1.50 have a record of 48 from 69 with an AE of 0.91.

Certainly food for thought.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Does the 3.15 at Leopardstown qualify for this?

Asterion Forlonge (current favourite) passes the French bred test but has terrible from figures.

 

 

Yes, I have 3 races today:

market_id    date        time  course_name   race_title
1.194231781  2022-02-05  1515  Leopardstown  Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)
1.194232015  2022-02-05  1538  Wetherby      Stratstone Harrogate Open Hunters' Chase (6)
1.194231896  2022-02-05  1619  Musselburgh   Bet365 Scottish Open Hunters' Chase (4)

 

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Only 1/4 for the month:

date		time	course_name	pos	sp	bsp	fav			race_title
03/02/2022	1310	Wincanton	2	1.5f	1.62	Alcala			Colin Lewis Memorial Open Hunters' Chase (6)
05/02/2022	1515	Leopardstown	4	3.5F	4.17	Asterion Forlonge	Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)
05/02/2022	1538	Wetherby	1	2.37f	2.34	Dubai Quest		Stratstone Harrogate Open Hunters' Chase (6)
05/02/2022	1619	Musselburgh	2	2.25f	2.4	Soldier Of Love		Bet365 Scottish Open Hunters' Chase (4)

 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 
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On 1/27/2022 at 4:38 PM, MCLARKE said:

For some reason French bred have an exceptional record, with 82 winners from 134 runners and an AE of 1.20. Irish bred are 88 from 200 with an AE of 0.91.

If you look  @ the previous form of most French runners , (V.Soft - Soft the conditions most likely to occur in the month of Feb) you may find some correlation 😉

You could also also try from the sample races

  french winners A All French Runners X  
  other winners B All other runners y  
               
  Sum of winners A+B Sum of Runners X+Y  
               
  Impact Value = (A / A+B) / (X / X+Y)  
               
IV of <1 not good     IV of 1 = average ,  so an IV of >1 is significant
Edited by Valiant Thor
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3 races today:

date        time  course_name  race_title
2022-02-09  1245  Fairyhouse   Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Mares Beginners Chase
2022-02-09  1345  Fairyhouse   Fairyhouse Easter Festival 16th  18th April Rated Chase
2022-02-09  1600  Ludlow       Chase Meredith Memorial Trophy Open Hunters' Chase (4)

 

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date        time  course_name  race_title
2022-02-12  1425  Newbury      Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) (1)
2022-02-12  1433  Uttoxeter    Virgin Bet Mares' Chase (2)
2022-02-12  1500  Newbury      Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) (1)
2022-02-12  1600  Naas         Bba Ireland Limited Opera Hat Mares Chase (Listed)
2022-02-12  1630  Naas         Congratulations To Naas Gaa On An Incredible Year Hunters Chase

 

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10 hours ago, gbettle said:
date        time  course_name  race_title
2022-02-13  1340  Punchestown  Hollywoodbets Bet 10 Get 30 P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase
2022-02-13  1600  Exeter       Virgin Bet Mares' Chase (Listed) (1)

 

3rd Tout Est Permis and 1st Snow Leopardess, so +0.20pts for the day.

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On 2/15/2022 at 11:49 AM, gbettle said:

One race today:

date        time  course_name     race_title
2022-02-15  1630  Lingfield Park  At The Races App Market Movers Open Hunters' Chase (6)

 

1st, No. 3 Dolphin Square BSP 1.97 :

"Tracked leaders, made challenge after 7th, led after 2 out (usual 3 out), ridden and went clear before last, comfortably (op 8/11 tchd Evens)"

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On 1/27/2022 at 10:58 AM, gbettle said:
  • 2012 to 2021, 630 bets, 330 winners, 109.2% returns
  • remove the novice chases:  2012 to 2021, 321 bets, 179 winners, 119.0% returns

Would anyone be kind enough to peer review these \ collaborate with their own another source\dataset? 

* - https://www.mylittletip.co.uk/post/knowing-too-much

image.png.8e42a87ac236394c4b305eb32f89be7d.png

From 20yrs data

There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06
This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly.
The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00)
**For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc **

ATB
VT

 

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8 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

image.png.8e42a87ac236394c4b305eb32f89be7d.png

From 20yrs data

There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06
This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly.
The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00)
**For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc **

ATB
VT

 

Brilliant analysis @Valiant Thor

Many thanks!

One question; does this exclude Novice races?

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I have gone through the data again due to some errors while trying to loop through the data :@
Cleaned the data so theres no corrupt cells  so should be ok now :hope

As you can see below the front 3 in the market most have above average IV's , but due to overbetting ,WOTC & WOM the market isnt far from spot on give or take a few % either way

image.png.ed6b70501ecdc6e2df6f7b2cb8cb1293.png

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.16
Returned 938.36
P/L -29.64

image.png.3066755f655845d9e47d06e58ec4542d.png

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 1540.07
P/L -38.93

Mine are to book sp so maybe backing @ BF sp some slight improvement

Taking  years you put up  2012 - 2021 I get.....

image.png.626fcbd5cfddbdac09a674e196e8894f.png

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 713.63
P/L 28.63
10yr return = 4%
Ex longest losing run 12

image.png.87b11079397a4799ee4a59cfd3e53b4f.png

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.12
Returned 426.35
P/L 32.35
10yr return = 8%
Ex longest losing run 11

Seems 2012-2021 are just variance in the results as the more years are added the results tend to revert to the mean (approx 5%-10% overound)
and 8% profit over that timespan is not realy a worthwhile target even at a decent sr the cramped odds could and most probably would wipe the whole lot out with an above average bad run .
I wouldnt be throwing my lads inheritance at it thats for sure.
But you never know :hope
G'Luck

ATB
VT

PS
Forgot to add, non of the 2nd or 3rd favs with above average IV's make a profit either for the same reasons as the favs ( just saving anyone time whose thinking of checking those out ) :ok

 

 

 

 

Edited by Valiant Thor
PS
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