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Racing Chat - Thursday 27 January


The Equaliser
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16 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie is:

1.10 Weth Graystone 7/4

3.15 Weth Sholojack Evens

6.30 Nc Beryl The Peril 11/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 43.93 points

Singles:

3.15 Weth Rosbeigh Strand 1 pt win at 9/2

6.30 Nc Oriental Lilly 1 pt win at 13/2

Total stakes = 6 points

Good luck to all punting tomorrow

Your trixie is looking good so far. 

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1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Think you cursed it 😵

Probably.  It was short of room in running.  Unfortunately I didn't have the benefit of checking prices at around 10 am this morning as I was out all day doing a good deed. at least my nap came in.  the double paid 5.50 & I had a non- runner so 1 pt returned = 0.5 profit on the day.  There's always another day 

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3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Probably.  It was short of room in running.  Unfortunately I didn't have the benefit of checking prices at around 10 am this morning as I was out all day doing a good deed. at least my nap came in.  the double paid 5.50 & I had a non- runner so 1 pt returned = 0.5 profit on the day.  There's always another day 

Its my mums birthday today she past away a good few years ago her name was Beryl and i didn't have a penny on because i backed it a few times when it first ran and it went onto my "if this a fav or is a short price list" which means the race is poor and to look for the value bet in the race. I actually backed Barrington at 14/1 this morning but i rarely do EW so wasn't much use to me but just goes to show what quirky thinking does 🤣 that list btw is quite effective and is one of my tools. Everyone should have a crap horse list in my opinion.

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38 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Its my mums birthday today she past away a good few years ago her name was Beryl and i didn't have a penny on because i backed it a few times when it first ran and it went onto my "if this a fav or is a short price list" which means the race is poor and to look for the value bet in the race. I actually backed Barrington at 14/1 this morning but i rarely do EW so wasn't much use to me but just goes to show what quirky thinking does 🤣 that list btw is quite effective and is one of my tools. Everyone should have a crap horse list in my opinion.

Yes, good idea.  What about a crap Jockey's list? there are a few that I don't like and I'm sure that PL members will probably have some too.  Very interesting that Tell'em Nowt which won at 7/2 was generally available at 9/2 last night but Bet365 had it in at 100/30.  Beryl was generally available at 9/4 whilst Bet365 had in at 11/4 which was the price that I took.  Obviously Bet365 knew what they were doing.

 

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23 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie is:

1.10 Weth Graystone 7/4

3.15 Weth Sholojack Evens

6.30 Nc Beryl The Peril 11/4

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 43.93 points

Singles:

3.15 Weth Rosbeigh Strand 1 pt win at 9/2

6.30 Nc Oriental Lilly 1 pt win at 13/2

Total stakes = 6 points

Good luck to all punting tomorrow

RESULTS UPDATE

Only two in on the Trixie and one non runner so a small profit of 0.5 pts today.  This is the 4th time this month that I have missed out on the Trixie.  My nap won so I can't complain.  My MTD/YTD loss is -76.46

There are 4 UK meetings tomorrow and only 4 races of class 3 and higher.  Loads of class 4 races, about 11 class 5 races and the rest class 6.  Looks like us punters will be up to our necks in muck and bullets if we want to have a bet tomorrow.

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Yes, good idea.  What about a crap Jockey's list? there are a few that I don't like and I'm sure that PL members will probably have some too.  Very interesting that Tell'em Nowt which won at 7/2 was generally available at 9/2 last night but Bet365 had it in at 100/30.  Beryl was generally available at 9/4 whilst Bet365 had in at 11/4 which was the price that I took.  Obviously Bet365 knew what they were doing.

 

A bad jockey list is subjective and very dangerous because it can cause you bias, you are looking for the best horse in any given race and to not back that horse because you think the jockey is bad is a mistake, I had a real issue with Jason Watson when riding for Charlton, but was he riding to instructions? we would never know. i have an issue with Jim Crowley, bear in mind people like Dettori, Moore, Buick et al ride the best horses and they still cock up. Its too easy and lazy to blame the jockey especially when our money is involved. In my opinion the horse is everything, put the best jockey on a sprinter in a 2 mile race and it will come last. there are bad performances by jockeys but it is so competitive that they all have to be pretty competent or very quickly they get no rides. Look what happened to Jamie Spencer as a good example, he got the top job at Ballydoyle but he didnt last long. Others on here can give you the stats for Spencer on a wide open course v Spencer on narrower courses. personally i like jobbing jockeys those that turn up race day after race day and do a job, Hanaghan, Kirby, the Johnson jockeys etc but i never really factor them in on any race, i might use them as a tie breaker if i have say 2 or more rated the same.

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7 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

A bad jockey list is subjective and very dangerous because it can cause you bias, you are looking for the best horse in any given race and to not back that horse because you think the jockey is bad is a mistake, I had a real issue with Jason Watson when riding for Charlton, but was he riding to instructions? we would never know. i have an issue with Jim Crowley, bear in mind people like Dettori, Moore, Buick et al ride the best horses and they still cock up. Its too easy and lazy to blame the jockey especially when our money is involved. In my opinion the horse is everything, put the best jockey on a sprinter in a 2 mile race and it will come last. there are bad performances by jockeys but it is so competitive that they all have to be pretty competent or very quickly they get no rides. Look what happened to Jamie Spencer as a good example, he got the top job at Ballydoyle but he didnt last long. Others on here can give you the stats for Spencer on a wide open course v Spencer on narrower courses. personally i like jobbing jockeys those that turn up race day after race day and do a job, Hanaghan, Kirby, the Johnson jockeys etc but i never really factor them in on any race, i might use them as a tie breaker if i have say 2 or more rated the same.

Very many thanks for your well thought out and delivered response.  I don't like Paul Mulrennan but have indeed missed a winner or two because of being biased towards him.  I know that @MCLARKEhas in the past has mentioned issues with Hollie Doyle and women jockeys in a finish but she seems to be in great form at present.  You are right of course, we should all be focused on the horse's ability itself and not be prejudiced about the jockey.  Was Jamie Spencer the jockey who always rides his horses from behind no matter what the instructions are?  Obviously a jockey has to produce a horse to win a race at the right time.  I do wonder when I watch the races how a jockey can judge the right sort of pace to run his horse at over varying distance races when, he is behind a horse that has say gone ten lengths clear of the rest of the field.  It would be great to know which jockeys are the best judges of pace and over which distances?  I have long wanted to get hold of stats like this.  In this day and age when they show a football or tennis match on TV and the presenters can seemingly produce instant figures on how a player is performing right there and then I don't see why someone cannot produce very useful statistics on jockeys and trainers that would help us punters in finding winners    

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Personally I don't factor jockeys or trainers in to my analysis (apart from claimers).

There is a logic in female jockeys because they are generally weaker than men. This applies in most sports, the number 200 ranked male tennis player had a match against the Williams sisters when they were at the top and beat Serena 6-1 and Venus 6-2.

I think we are prejudiced by our losers and look for someone or something to blame when in reality it is all down to chance.

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42 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for your well thought out and delivered response.  I don't like Paul Mulrennan but have indeed missed a winner or two because of being biased towards him.  I know that @MCLARKEhas in the past has mentioned issues with Hollie Doyle and women jockeys in a finish but she seems to be in great form at present.  You are right of course, we should all be focused on the horse's ability itself and not be prejudiced about the jockey.  Was Jamie Spencer the jockey who always rides his horses from behind no matter what the instructions are?  Obviously a jockey has to produce a horse to win a race at the right time.  I do wonder when I watch the races how a jockey can judge the right sort of pace to run his horse at over varying distance races when, he is behind a horse that has say gone ten lengths clear of the rest of the field.  It would be great to know which jockeys are the best judges of pace and over which distances?  I have long wanted to get hold of stats like this.  In this day and age when they show a football or tennis match on TV and the presenters can seemingly produce instant figures on how a player is performing right there and then I don't see why someone cannot produce very useful statistics on jockeys and trainers that would help us punters in finding winners    

Fallon was brilliant at timing a race as was Philip Robinson who was probably one of the most underrated jockeys ever, Fallon learnt in the USA where pace and timing is considered everything. Personally i think you can get so bogged down in stats (and i love them) that you can miss the obvious, all i want to know is how fast can this horse go (speed figures) and will it get the trip in this ground. for handicaps you can pretty much forget stats, if the trainer wants the horses weight down it wont win, if they want weight up they will do everything to get it to win. Far too much room for "fiddling" with handicaps. "well in" "back to its winning mark" "laid out for this" "targeted this race" "needs a few to come out to get in" all results of fiddling. Theoretically we should stick to pattern races and leave handicaps well alone but we like to play and we sometimes fool ourselves into believing we know enough to back in them when we usually don't. I would say my best tool other than speed figures is my memory and my notebook if i see something and it may only be an instinct i note it. i try not to watch the horse i have backed in a race in favour of watching the race itself a great example of this was i was watching a derby once many years ago and Hughie Morrison had a horse in it (big price outsider) called ???? i instantly made a note of it and its next run was R Ascot and it won at 25/1 then it went to France 2 weeks later and won at 10/1 it was then sold abroad never to be seen or win again. Ping!!!! it was called Pisco Sour.

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41 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Personally I don't factor jockeys or trainers in to my analysis (apart from claimers).

There is a logic in female jockeys because they are generally weaker than men. This applies in most sports, the number 200 ranked male tennis player had a match against the Williams sisters when they were at the top and beat Serena 6-1 and Venus 6-2.

I think we are prejudiced by our losers and look for someone or something to blame when in reality it is all down to chance.

yeah but then others think same may be underbet and value.

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