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Racing Chat- Saturday 15th January


The Brigadier
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A feast of racing for the armchair watchers on Saturday with nine races on ITV from Warwick and Kempton where both tracks are reporting soft ground although with little rain around it would be no shock to see either or both tracks tighten up a bit and come back to good to soft. Here’s my thoughts on them :-

 

Warwick 1.18

A disappointing turn out of four for this 2 mile handicap chase. The one they all have to beat is Venetia William’s Brave Seasca who’s chasing his third win on the bounce following an easy course and distance win and a cosy victory at Ascot both in December. On the negative side he has risen 16lb for those two victories and is short enough today at around 5/4. Last years winner Sky Pirate (12lb higher today) went on to win the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and is no doubt been trained for the same race. That said he’s not been disgraced in all three of his starts this season including when a 13L 3rd to Shiskin last time out. He should be competitive under his regular rider Nick Schofield. Matt Sheppard’s Not Available is like the favourite here chasing a hat trick of wins following success’s at Newbury and Ludlow rising only 6lb and has yet to be out of the frame in 12 career starts. A model of consistency he may well be the value today. 

NOT AVAILABLE 1 point win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

Kempton 1.32

Seven go to post for this 2m 4F 110yds handicap chase. Jeremy Scott has his team in fine shape and saddles one of the front market leaders here in Champagne Court who won a handicap hurdle last time and is reverting back to the larger obstacles now. He has claims but hardly represents value at around 11/4. The other market larder is Kap Auteuil who also comes into the race in good form having won 5 of his last 6 starts for up and coming trainer Toby Lawes. I’ll stick with him as the most likely winner here but only to small stakes. 

KAP AUTEUIL 1 point win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Warwick 1.50

Another small field of five here for the 3 mile Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase. A skinny favourite in the Paul Nicholls trained Threeunderthrufive who should really be beating these despite a 5lb penalty. Nicholls won this last year with Next Destination and this McNeill Family owned 7 year old has won his last three starts all at this trip and in good style. He’s too short to back so it’ll be a watching race for me. Mint Condition did it well at Haydock last time and can chase the jolly home.

 

Kempton 2.05

A disappointing turn out for this £80,000 guaranteed prize. The grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase is run over 2m 4F 110yds and only four have declared. Each one of the quartet have questions to answer now with the outsider Defi Du Seuil having not shown any form now since the 2020 Cheltenham Festival and is over looked. Paul Nicholls’ Rouge Vif comes into it IF he stays (this is his first run at 2m 4F) whilst Eldorado Allen has probably the least doubts of the quartet and should run well. Mister Fisher though has a touch of class about him and on his Peterborough Chase win in December 2020 (run at Cheltenham that year) and his bet365 Chase second at Sandown in April last year efforts will be hard to beat. He was flying high on his re-appearance when most likely not staying in the King George on Boxing Day and at a track where he’s won two of his three starts can bounce back to form under James Bowen. 

MISTER FISHER 1 point win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Warwick 2.25

Seven novice’s assemble for the latest renewal of the Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 2 contest run over 2m 5F. Nicky Henderson is having a stellar season with his two mile novices and the likes of Constitution Hill and Jonbon and may take this with his Surrey Quest who is much more of a staying type. He impressed when winning at Doncaster over Christmas under 7lb conditional Nathan Brennan who stated afterwards that he ‘is still a big baby and is going to come on a ton for this’. Aidan Coleman takes over here and a big run is expected. His biggest danger may well be Stag Horn, a 103 rated flat horse who won at Hereford on his hurdling debut back in early December from subsequent winner World Of Dreams. This represents a big step up in class but he was smart on the level and it would be no shock were he to run well. 

SURREY QUEST 2 points win 9/4 William Hill

 

Kempton 2.40

An excellent turn out for the feature hurdle race of the day the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, a listed race run over 2m 5F. A case can be made for plenty with the Paul Nicholls trained novice ( who takes up this engagement rather than the easier novice hurdle race at Warwick) Gelino Bello high on my shortlist. He’s bumped into Albert Bartlett favourite Blazing Khal at Cheltenham on his last two starts and a mark of 138 may underestimate his ability. Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race and the preferred of his trio has to be Marie’s Rock who bounced back to form for the step up in trip over course and distance three weeks ago for which she’s been pushed up 9lb in the handicap. Green Book is chasing a hat trick with conditional jockey Ned Fox who claims 10lb on board - a big day for that young man. Dans Le Vent is one I like a fair bit here. He’s done little wrong this season in winning a a valuable 3 mile handicap hurdle at Haydock in November before an excellent 4th in the Relkeel Hurdle where his usual rider Isobel Williams, daughter of trainer Evan, was unable to claim her 5lb. Only beaten 7 1/4L he has surprisingly been untouched by the handicapper and can run well. Ben Case is having a good season and his Cobblers Dream impressed me when winning last time out at Doncaster and a rise of only 6lb maybe lenient. I’ll take him and Dans Le Vent against the field each way with enhanced places. The best total outsider may well be the Jonjo O’Neill trained Carys’ Commodity who’s wearing a tongue tie for the first time and is better than his recent efforts. 

DANS LE VENT 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

COBBLERS DREAM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 123456 William Hill

 

Warwick 3.00

15 staying chasers go to post for the Classic Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3m 5F. Lucinda Russell’s top weight Corach Rambler is chasing a hat trick of wins following success’s at Aintree and Cheltenham taking a 15lb rise for those two wins and looks a player stepping up in trip. Another horse who should relish going up in distance is the David Pipe trained Gericault Roque who pulled well clear of his field when chasing home the improver Saint Palais at Newbury in the Mandarin last time out. He’s been put up 6lb for that effort but remains one to follow and has a big chance today. Last years winner Notachance has had excuses for his defeats since and in a first time visor and back on the same handicap mark as he won off of last year has to be given respect but it’s the Pipe runner Gericault Roque that I like here. 

GERICAULT ROQUE 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

 

Kempton 3.15

Hopefully all eight will run in this 3 mile handicap chase allowing an each way bet with three places. Top weight Caribean Boy holds claims but for me has been rather disappointing since winning over a year ago at Newbury and at the prices can be taken on. Christian Williams saddles two from Wales in Kitty’s Light and Strictlyadancer and both have chances. The one I like here though is the 12 year old Double Shuffle who is tongue tied for the first time. Tom George’s gelding has a liking for this flat track with career form figures at the Sunbury On Thames track reading 122527316. He won this race last year off of 140 and can race today off of only a one pound higher mark (he’s actually won here in the past off of 143). He has to put two average runs this season behind him but that will reflect in his price and it would not shock me were he to run well at a price. 

DOUBLE SHIFFLE 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 123

 

Warwick 3.35

Only seven go to post for this Pertemps handicap hurdle - a qualifier for the final at Cheltenham in March. Bar possibly the rank outsider Keeper Hill a case can be made for all seven runners. Fergal O’Brien saddles an interesting handicap debutant in Alaphilippe although he has a 302 day absence to overcome. There’s two Irish runners in the shape of Gordon Elliott’s Sire Du Berlais carrying top weight and a previous winner of the final although you would think a ‘quiet’ run here would help his handicap mark come the Festival and Ronan McNally’s The Jam Man. The form horse’s are Riggs who ran really well at Haydock last time for the Skelton’s and looks sure to run well and Philip Hobb’s Sporting John who was impressive on his re-appearance at Cheltenham but a tad disappointing back there the following month when only 4th. It’s a hard race to call but off of bottom weight I’ll go with Riggs who comes here on the back of a career best run last time. 

RIGGS 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

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545 chelmsford 3 existent is unexposed so has to be a pick, even if its just cover if comes in. 7 phoenix star looks amazing value atm 9.8 betfair exchange but going to wait and see prices on these tomorrow i may regret it. 2 copinet looks about right will be a pick unless comes in too much hoping for drift, 9 lucky ava  decent price 8.6 bit of value. cos quite close race gona just wait cos some could drift to more value again and i dont want to miss that.

Screenshot_20220114-231013.png.0b8acf24a3434ed6805a64bc80231753.png

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I skipped Kempton today because of doubts about racing going ahead right up to 11.30 am

My Trixie is:

1.45 Ling Intuitive 2/1

2.12 Weth Fransham 7/4

2.25 War Stag Horn 10/3

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 68.91 points

Some singles today are:

1.50 War Mossy Fen 0.5 pts win at 16/1

2.25 War Gentleman At Arms 0.5 pts win at 14/1

3.00 War Gericault Roque 1.5 pts win at 4/1; Not A Chance 0.5 pts win at 12/1

2.12 Weth Hollywooden 0.5 pts win at 15/2

2.47 Weth Glenruan 1 pt win at 9/2

5.45 Chelm Copinet 1.5 pts win at 4/1 and Rose Hip 0.5 pts win at 4/1

10.5  Points staked today

Good luck to all.  A cracking day's racing ahead

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I dont follow many trainers and none over the cliff but i do like A King and he seems to be struggling at the moment he laid out notachance today and one of his better horses (according to him) is grisbi de berse, today he had a short price loser and nottachance and pekinpah downed tools so will be interesting to see how Grisbi gets on in the 350 at Kempton.

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17 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1205 lingfield 4 latent heat needs market check, 7 hector loza is an ew value call taking 14.5 betfair exchange and 3.6 place. wonder starelzaam could win here taking 3.65 , 9 evening sun will leave as bsp or see what price is tomorrow win only as half a chance at the trip.Screenshot_20220114-213904.png.32343b2367d7f938d0c978d5b13b2382.png

winner star for slight loss as hector didnt place sadly. -0.4

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On 1/14/2022 at 3:25 PM, The Brigadier said:

A feast of racing for the armchair watchers on Saturday with nine races on ITV from Warwick and Kempton where both tracks are reporting soft ground although with little rain around it would be no shock to see either or both tracks tighten up a bit and come back to good to soft. Here’s my thoughts on them :-

 

Warwick 1.18

A disappointing turn out of four for this 2 mile handicap chase. The one they all have to beat is Venetia William’s Brave Seasca who’s chasing his third win on the bounce following an easy course and distance win and a cosy victory at Ascot both in December. On the negative side he has risen 16lb for those two victories and is short enough today at around 5/4. Last years winner Sky Pirate (12lb higher today) went on to win the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and is no doubt been trained for the same race. That said he’s not been disgraced in all three of his starts this season including when a 13L 3rd to Shiskin last time out. He should be competitive under his regular rider Nick Schofield. Matt Sheppard’s Not Available is like the favourite here chasing a hat trick of wins following success’s at Newbury and Ludlow rising only 6lb and has yet to be out of the frame in 12 career starts. A model of consistency he may well be the value today. 

NOT AVAILABLE 1 point win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

Kempton 1.32

Seven go to post for this 2m 4F 110yds handicap chase. Jeremy Scott has his team in fine shape and saddles one of the front market leaders here in Champagne Court who won a handicap hurdle last time and is reverting back to the larger obstacles now. He has claims but hardly represents value at around 11/4. The other market larder is Kap Auteuil who also comes into the race in good form having won 5 of his last 6 starts for up and coming trainer Toby Lawes. I’ll stick with him as the most likely winner here but only to small stakes. 

KAP AUTEUIL 1 point win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Warwick 1.50

Another small field of five here for the 3 mile Grade 2 Hampton Novices’ Chase. A skinny favourite in the Paul Nicholls trained Threeunderthrufive who should really be beating these despite a 5lb penalty. Nicholls won this last year with Next Destination and this McNeill Family owned 7 year old has won his last three starts all at this trip and in good style. He’s too short to back so it’ll be a watching race for me. Mint Condition did it well at Haydock last time and can chase the jolly home.

 

Kempton 2.05

A disappointing turn out for this £80,000 guaranteed prize. The grade 2 Silviniaco Conti Chase is run over 2m 4F 110yds and only four have declared. Each one of the quartet have questions to answer now with the outsider Defi Du Seuil having not shown any form now since the 2020 Cheltenham Festival and is over looked. Paul Nicholls’ Rouge Vif comes into it IF he stays (this is his first run at 2m 4F) whilst Eldorado Allen has probably the least doubts of the quartet and should run well. Mister Fisher though has a touch of class about him and on his Peterborough Chase win in December 2020 (run at Cheltenham that year) and his bet365 Chase second at Sandown in April last year efforts will be hard to beat. He was flying high on his re-appearance when most likely not staying in the King George on Boxing Day and at a track where he’s won two of his three starts can bounce back to form under James Bowen. 

MISTER FISHER 1 point win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Warwick 2.25

Seven novice’s assemble for the latest renewal of the Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle, a grade 2 contest run over 2m 5F. Nicky Henderson is having a stellar season with his two mile novices and the likes of Constitution Hill and Jonbon and may take this with his Surrey Quest who is much more of a staying type. He impressed when winning at Doncaster over Christmas under 7lb conditional Nathan Brennan who stated afterwards that he ‘is still a big baby and is going to come on a ton for this’. Aidan Coleman takes over here and a big run is expected. His biggest danger may well be Stag Horn, a 103 rated flat horse who won at Hereford on his hurdling debut back in early December from subsequent winner World Of Dreams. This represents a big step up in class but he was smart on the level and it would be no shock were he to run well. 

SURREY QUEST 2 points win 9/4 William Hill

 

Kempton 2.40

An excellent turn out for the feature hurdle race of the day the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, a listed race run over 2m 5F. A case can be made for plenty with the Paul Nicholls trained novice ( who takes up this engagement rather than the easier novice hurdle race at Warwick) Gelino Bello high on my shortlist. He’s bumped into Albert Bartlett favourite Blazing Khal at Cheltenham on his last two starts and a mark of 138 may underestimate his ability. Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race and the preferred of his trio has to be Marie’s Rock who bounced back to form for the step up in trip over course and distance three weeks ago for which she’s been pushed up 9lb in the handicap. Green Book is chasing a hat trick with conditional jockey Ned Fox who claims 10lb on board - a big day for that young man. Dans Le Vent is one I like a fair bit here. He’s done little wrong this season in winning a a valuable 3 mile handicap hurdle at Haydock in November before an excellent 4th in the Relkeel Hurdle where his usual rider Isobel Williams, daughter of trainer Evan, was unable to claim her 5lb. Only beaten 7 1/4L he has surprisingly been untouched by the handicapper and can run well. Ben Case is having a good season and his Cobblers Dream impressed me when winning last time out at Doncaster and a rise of only 6lb maybe lenient. I’ll take him and Dans Le Vent against the field each way with enhanced places. The best total outsider may well be the Jonjo O’Neill trained Carys’ Commodity who’s wearing a tongue tie for the first time and is better than his recent efforts. 

DANS LE VENT 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

COBBLERS DREAM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 123456 William Hill

 

Warwick 3.00

15 staying chasers go to post for the Classic Handicap Chase run over a stamina sapping 3m 5F. Lucinda Russell’s top weight Corach Rambler is chasing a hat trick of wins following success’s at Aintree and Cheltenham taking a 15lb rise for those two wins and looks a player stepping up in trip. Another horse who should relish going up in distance is the David Pipe trained Gericault Roque who pulled well clear of his field when chasing home the improver Saint Palais at Newbury in the Mandarin last time out. He’s been put up 6lb for that effort but remains one to follow and has a big chance today. Last years winner Notachance has had excuses for his defeats since and in a first time visor and back on the same handicap mark as he won off of last year has to be given respect but it’s the Pipe runner Gericault Roque that I like here. 

GERICAULT ROQUE 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

 

Kempton 3.15

Hopefully all eight will run in this 3 mile handicap chase allowing an each way bet with three places. Top weight Caribean Boy holds claims but for me has been rather disappointing since winning over a year ago at Newbury and at the prices can be taken on. Christian Williams saddles two from Wales in Kitty’s Light and Strictlyadancer and both have chances. The one I like here though is the 12 year old Double Shuffle who is tongue tied for the first time. Tom George’s gelding has a liking for this flat track with career form figures at the Sunbury On Thames track reading 122527316. He won this race last year off of 140 and can race today off of only a one pound higher mark (he’s actually won here in the past off of 143). He has to put two average runs this season behind him but that will reflect in his price and it would not shock me were he to run well at a price. 

DOUBLE SHIFFLE 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 123

 

Warwick 3.35

Only seven go to post for this Pertemps handicap hurdle - a qualifier for the final at Cheltenham in March. Bar possibly the rank outsider Keeper Hill a case can be made for all seven runners. Fergal O’Brien saddles an interesting handicap debutant in Alaphilippe although he has a 302 day absence to overcome. There’s two Irish runners in the shape of Gordon Elliott’s Sire Du Berlais carrying top weight and a previous winner of the final although you would think a ‘quiet’ run here would help his handicap mark come the Festival and Ronan McNally’s The Jam Man. The form horse’s are Riggs who ran really well at Haydock last time for the Skelton’s and looks sure to run well and Philip Hobb’s Sporting John who was impressive on his re-appearance at Cheltenham but a tad disappointing back there the following month when only 4th. It’s a hard race to call but off of bottom weight I’ll go with Riggs who comes here on the back of a career best run last time. 

RIGGS 1 point win @ 11/4 BetVictor

 

A profit of 10.75 points on the day - hope everyone had a good day and found a winner or two

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2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I dont follow many trainers and none over the cliff but i do like A King and he seems to be struggling at the moment he laid out notachance today and one of his better horses (according to him) is grisbi de berse, today he had a short price loser and nottachance and pekinpah downed tools so will be interesting to see how Grisbi gets on in the 350 at Kempton.

well similar to notachance, Grisbi travelled strongly and faded.

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18 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

545 chelmsford 3 existent is unexposed so has to be a pick, even if its just cover if comes in. 7 phoenix star looks amazing value atm 9.8 betfair exchange but going to wait and see prices on these tomorrow i may regret it. 2 copinet looks about right will be a pick unless comes in too much hoping for drift, 9 lucky ava  decent price 8.6 bit of value. cos quite close race gona just wait cos some could drift to more value again and i dont want to miss that.

Screenshot_20220114-231013.png.0b8acf24a3434ed6805a64bc80231753.png

unexposed existent wins 🤑 went existent as i said would and phoenix and lucky ava (2nd rated) 5.07 won was 6.0 last night. +2.0 for a miserable +0.6 bsp for the day lol copinet came to much as mentioned so wasnt wortht it at the price. we all have bad days.

Edited by Wildgarden
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3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I dont follow many trainers and none over the cliff but i do like A King and he seems to be struggling at the moment he laid out notachance today and one of his better horses (according to him) is grisbi de berse, today he had a short price loser and nottachance and pekinpah downed tools so will be interesting to see how Grisbi gets on in the 350 at Kempton.

Daryl Jacob was singing the praises of Alan King on the Opening Show today, saying how he can get a horse spot on for a race.  Like all these trainers they go through good spells and bad spells.  I will look out for him when his horses hot a good vein of form

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5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I skipped Kempton today because of doubts about racing going ahead right up to 11.30 am

My Trixie is:

1.45 Ling Intuitive 2/1

2.12 Weth Fransham 7/4

2.25 War Stag Horn 10/3

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 68.91 points

Some singles today are:

1.50 War Mossy Fen 0.5 pts win at 16/1

2.25 War Gentleman At Arms 0.5 pts win at 14/1

3.00 War Gericault Roque 1.5 pts win at 4/1; Not A Chance 0.5 pts win at 12/1

2.12 Weth Hollywooden 0.5 pts win at 15/2

2.47 Weth Glenruan 1 pt win at 9/2

5.45 Chelm Copinet 1.5 pts win at 4/1 and Rose Hip 0.5 pts win at 4/1

10.5  Points staked today

Good luck to all.  A cracking day's racing ahead

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners again today. The rider on Intuitive left it far too late to win.  Hollie Doyle strikes again.  I thought that I had backed Stag Horn to win in a single but alas I didn't.  This means a 10.5 loss today and a MTD/YTD loss of -48.56.  We are only halfway through the month so maybe I can turn things around.

There are some qualifying races tomorrow at Kelso and a class 3 and 4 at Southwell tomorrow so I should be able to find something to have a bet on

 

 

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