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Racing chat - Wednesday 12th January


Wildgarden
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  • Wildgarden changed the title to Racing chat - Wednesday 12th January
15 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

105 lingfield... 8 clearly the best in ratings, 5 best value 15.0 atm betfair exchange... worth a market check if drifts leave then 7 also some value 8.8 atm and 2 about right.

Screenshot_20220111-210008.png.128ea98dcbc156fc4bd4274a585c4abc.png

5 drifted so going 8 2 7 with small saver on 5 to pay for other bets  if wins. 8 is about breakeven so need 2 or 7 to win for money.

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16 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

105 lingfield... 8 clearly the best in ratings, 5 best value 15.0 atm betfair exchange... worth a market check if drifts leave then 7 also some value 8.8 atm and 2 about right.

Screenshot_20220111-210008.png.128ea98dcbc156fc4bd4274a585c4abc.png

winner 2 mobharin with top rated 2nd lol 5.1 bsp i took 6.6 myself 

Edited by Wildgarden
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Not a good day for racing.  I have gone for a double and opposed odds on shots in other races.  I never mind if the favourites win as some poor punters out there deserve some sort of compensation for their losing days.

2.20  Leic Only Money 2/1 (my PL Nap today)

5.30 Km Sydney Street 6/4

4 pt win double with poss return of 30 pts

Singles:

2.35 Ling Progress 1 pt win at 7/1

1.50 Leic Barna Viddaun 1 pt win at 9/2

2.50 Leic Magic Dancer 1 pt win at 5/1; Family Business 1 pt win at 7/2

3.20 Leic Allavina 1 pt win at 7/1

5.30 Km Fozzie Bear 1 pt win at 15/2

All the above have shown some increased market interest since last night

10 points staked today

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4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

2.50 leicester family business 7/2 win:nana

only 2 horses with french connections at leicester today 1st and second  worth keeping eye out for horses that have raced in france like the conditions

there was only one yesterday won 2,30 exeter win my wings 28/1

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2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

500 kempton .. lake sand top rated  will do bsp and daafy 10.5 ill take 

Screenshot_20220112-145338.png

pedestal wins 4th rated. maybe i shpuld have thoughy about that 5 lb claimer a bit more.

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1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

pedestal wins 4th rated. maybe i shpuld have thoughy about that 5 lb claimer a bit more.

Haha, don't you realise that you should have backed the lowest rated in both your races; they both won! As I have said before I can't seem to make any sense of the ratings game.  I have no idea what has happened since the days of Phil Bull taking the bookies to the cleaners with his ratings.  He must surely have had to contend with going, distance, class and course etc but he managed to win a lot of money for his followers at that time.  Maybe the trainers have got smarter and deliberately don't run their horses to get maximum ratings so as to confuse everything.  Bad luck with this atm but my favourite friend and motto is Percy Verence so keep trying and who knows you might crack it

Edited by The Equaliser
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8 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Haha, don't you realise that you should have backed the lowest rated in both your races; they both won! As I have said before I can't seem to make any sense of the ratings game.  I have no idea what has happened since the days of Phil Bull taking the bookies to the cleaners with his ratings.  He must surely have had to contend with going, distance, class and course etc but he managed to win a lot of money for his followers at that time.  Maybe the trainers have got smarter and deliberately don't run their horses to get maximum ratings so as to confuse everything.  Bad luck with this atm but my favourite friend and motto is Percy Verence so keep trying and who knows you might crack it

i back top 3 overall but cherry pick ones with more money - top 3 pays long term 100-200 x stake a month. the important thing is they are on the shortlist. 

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4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not a good day for racing.  I have gone for a double and opposed odds on shots in other races.  I never mind if the favourites win as some poor punters out there deserve some sort of compensation for their losing days.

2.20  Leic Only Money 2/1 (my PL Nap today)

5.30 Km Sydney Street 6/4

4 pt win double with poss return of 30 pts

Singles:

2.35 Ling Progress 1 pt win at 7/1

1.50 Leic Barna Viddaun 1 pt win at 9/2

2.50 Leic Magic Dancer 1 pt win at 5/1; Family Business 1 pt win at 7/2

3.20 Leic Allavina 1 pt win at 7/1

5.30 Km Fozzie Bear 1 pt win at 15/2

All the above have shown some increased market interest since last night

10 points staked today

RESULTS UPDATE

My nap won and I got a double in.  Family Business also won for me (should have had 1.5 pts on but I can't complain.  Anyway a profit of 24.50 points which at least brings my January deficit down to -29.91 = MTD & MTD

There are 4 UK meetings tomorrow and at least lots of class 4 races where the favorites are in the region of 2/1.  Hence, I may be able to get back on the Trixie path once more ?

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5 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

i back top 3 overall but cherry pick ones with more money - top 3 pays long term 100-200 x stake a month. the important thing is they are on the shortlist. 

I think that you will find that the horses that won were both clipped in price so I don't know if you can tweak your method to accommodate that.

I seem to remember Patrick Kilgallon saying in his book on "How To Win At Handicap Racing" that most rating systems will throw up about 30 - 33% winners using the top 3 horses.  He then went on to say that one could improve the percentage to about 40% if you took into account other factors such as going, distance, race type, class, draw and some other important details.  I guess if you follow all this through thoroughly then you should back all three selections as long as the combined prices are something like 20% in the first instance and 30% in the second.  I reckon that you would be very fortunate to find races where you could achieve that.  For example you would have to get average odds of around of 13/1 with 30% winners and 9/1 with 40% winners.  There are probably only a few big open races each year when you may get those odds.  

However, if you are successful over time yourself then of course you should carry on.  I don't know how your determine which horse to leave out of your bets from the top three   

 

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1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I think that you will find that the horses that won were both clipped in price so I don't know if you can tweak your method to accommodate that.

I seem to remember Patrick Kilgallon saying in his book on "How To Win At Handicap Racing" that most rating systems will throw up about 30 - 33% winners using the top 3 horses.  He then went on to say that one could improve the percentage to about 40% if you took into account other factors such as going, distance, race type, class, draw and some other important details.  I guess if you follow all this through thoroughly then you should back all three selections as long as the combined prices are something like 20% in the first instance and 30% in the second.  I reckon that you would be very fortunate to find races where you could achieve that.  For example you would have to get average odds of around of 13/1 with 30% winners and 9/1 with 40% winners.  There are probably only a few big open races each year when you may get those odds.  

However, if you are successful over time yourself then of course you should carry on.  I don't know how your determine which horse to leave out of your bets from the top three   

 

i dont rate everything dont have enough time. i had other winners today -   some rated some not. the ratings work out races i dont already have picks for really from my systems or ones in following or whatnot which is nice for interest. 

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1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

i dont rate everything dont have enough time. i had other winners today -   some rated some not. the ratings work out races i dont already have picks for really from my systems or ones in following or whatnot which is nice for interest. 

Good luck with that.  If I see any of your posts and the races are of my choosing (only class4 up to class 1) then I will see if I have positive market data on any of your rated first four rated horses and let you know.  I will also cross-check with RP RPR and Timeform.  Should be interesting

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