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The Masters


Fader
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rather annoyingly missed the start of the Masters and today's action is Higgins taking on Xintong in the afternoon match. I'll take Higgins to win with the -1.5 handicap today. Xintong has a good recent record against Higgins but they've been last frame deciders and Higgins led Xintong 3-1 and 5-3 before Xintong won 3 in a row, and then the tournament, at York. Higgins was poor that day with just 2 50+ breaks but he likes the Masters alot and I can see him coming through this 6-3/6-4. 

6pts Higgins -1.5 legs to beat Xintong 5/6 paddypower

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47 minutes ago, Fader said:

rather annoyingly missed the start of the Masters and today's action is Higgins taking on Xintong in the afternoon match. I'll take Higgins to win with the -1.5 handicap today. Xintong has a good recent record against Higgins but they've been last frame deciders and Higgins led Xintong 3-1 and 5-3 before Xintong won 3 in a row, and then the tournament, at York. Higgins was poor that day with just 2 50+ breaks but he likes the Masters alot and I can see him coming through this 6-3/6-4. 

6pts Higgins -1.5 legs to beat Xintong 5/6 paddypower

I have the same bet. I am cheering for you! ;)

 

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In the evening we've got Murphy taking on Barry Hawkins. Normally, I would be on Murphy here but his recent form just doesn't do it for me and he's still a favourite here. He went out of the UK Championship to Jiahui 6-5 and was 5-1 down there. He only just beat Ng On Yee in a deciding leg after going down 3-1 in a first to 4 and then went out tamely to Li Hang 4-2. You just can't be with him here. 

4pts Hawkins to beat Murphy evens paddypower

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Both winners yesterday. 2 more matches today. O'Sullivan takes Lisowski in the afternoon match and Ronnie has a brilliant record against Lisowski. Infact, in the 3 matches they've played it's been 5-2, 6-1 and 6-1. Ronnie tends to really raise his game against Jack and in this Masters I expect another good enough performance to see him beat him again. PP have boosted the 6-2 result and I'll take a 1pt punt on that, also.

4pts O'Sullivan (-2.5 frames) to beat Lisowski evens paddypower
1pt O'Sullivan to win 6-2 11/2 paddypower

Masters bets +9pts

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1 hour ago, Fader said:

Both winners yesterday. 2 more matches today. O'Sullivan takes Lisowski in the afternoon match and Ronnie has a brilliant record against Lisowski. Infact, in the 3 matches they've played it's been 5-2, 6-1 and 6-1. Ronnie tends to really raise his game against Jack and in this Masters I expect another good enough performance to see him beat him again. PP have boosted the 6-2 result and I'll take a 1pt punt on that, also.

4pts O'Sullivan (-2.5 frames) to beat Lisowski evens paddypower
1pt O'Sullivan to win 6-2 11/2 paddypower

Masters bets +9pts

I agree but I felt more safe with the -1,5 line. Same for Selby tonight. Maguire has a good record but that's it. Selby was on a good run in the champions league so I expect an easy Selby wint against, always-out-of-position Maguire..

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6 minutes ago, Robaldo said:

I agree but I felt more safe with the -1,5 line. Same for Selby tonight. Maguire has a good record but that's it. Selby was on a good run in the champions league so I expect an easy Selby wint against, always-out-of-position Maguire..

Yeah, the -1.5 at a decent price would have appealed more to me but it was 1/2. I nearly skipped this match but the h2h plus an event that Ronnie tends to like and has won on multiple occasions. Also Lisowski has played twice in this event and lost in the 1st round on both occasions 6-1 and 6-2.

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In the evening match we will see Mark Selby taking on Maguire. You would think that player of Mark Selby's ilk would be dominating this kind of event against the very best players and he has indeed won the event 3 times but after winning the event last, in 2013 and then making the final in 2014, he has gone out in R1 in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Infact, Selby has only won 3 matches in the last 7 seasons of this competition. Ironically, one of those wins was against Maguire, in 2019. That alone could be enough to make Maguire a value call.

If we look at Maguire in this event, he's made a Semi-final here on multiple occasions. Infact, he made 3 semi-finals in 4 years between 2007-2010. However that's a long time ago and in his 3 events here, he's won 2 matches here. Again, one of those was against Mark Selby and last year. He then went out in a deciding leg to the eventual winner, Yan Bingtao.

H2H is very even (15-15 with one draw) but the last 2 has seen Maguire win in deciding legs. If we look at general form, Selby has made a couple Semi-Finals in Championship League events but lost both of those Semis. Yes, it means nothing but looking further out he's lost matches you would expect him to win this season. Losing 3-0 to Carter at the British Open, Bingtao knocking him out of the English Open and then the COC and the big UK Championship event he lost tamely to Vafaei 6-2.

Maguire has abit of an issue with consistency. He didn't have a good start to the season really and went out to the likes of Day and King in early rounds. He shows his frustrating far too much and can just throw matches away. If we look abit closer though he has made Quarter Finals of the Scottish Open and then the Grand Prix. 

When all is said and done I think it's probably worth taking Maguire as the value. The better bet is perhaps the overs on the frame market. I'll take both.

4pts Over 9.5 frames (Selby Vs Maguire) 5/4 paddypower
4pts Maguire to beat Selby 5/2 betvictor

Masters bets +12pts

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Real poor stuff lastnight. Maguire had so many chances and some of the shots were just useless. Just to rub it in Selby wins 6-3 despite them having scored the same amount of points pretty much and Selby just hitting one 50+ break. Well worth laying in the next round. 

I'm sticking with the outsiders today. First up Allen takes on Trump and then Kyren Wilson takes on Bingham. Allen has a really good h2h record against Trump and although it's not the best time for Allen with his personal problems, he always seems to step up against the bigger players. I also think Bingham is worth a shot against Kyren Wilson. Bingham has just came from winning the Championship League group a week ago and he beat Wilson in the final. He also has a good record at the Masters.

4pts Allen to beat Trump 7/4 paddypower
4pts Bingham to beat Wilson 6/4 paddypower

Masters bets +4pts

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How has Bingham won a World Championship? Absolutely bottled it on the final frame with an easy pink to middle and then multiple times after it.  

Two deciding frame losses. Allen should have went 5-3 up and was in on the deciding leg. Bingham in on deciding leg a couple of times acting like he's on the final frame of the World Final. Pub snooker.

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That was a real kick in the nuts losing both bets, I guess Bingham must have played well to win his world title and masters. But that missed pink to the middle, wow!!

Looking forward to a good match this afternoon, hope Ronnie keeps his form up as Neil was poor 1st round.

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Ugh, onto another day then. Hopefully it swings my way today. Robertson takes on Ronnie in the afternoon match and then in he evening it's Higgins Vs Williams. Ronnie beat Neil for the first time in 3 when he beat him 10-8 at the Grand Prix, in December. 

As charliepie says above, Robertson looked abit dodgy against McGill and although Neil won this event in 2012 he hasn't made it past Round 1 in the last 2 seasons. Although Ronnie says he isn't a big fan of this event, the stats don't lie. He was excellent against Lisowski after the first couple of frames.  I'll also take the 7/4 on a Ronnie/Higgins double today

5pts R'O'Sullivan to beat Robertson 4/5 paddypower
2pts Ronnie/Higgins double 7/4 paddypower

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I'm also going to take this bet with bet365. In a first to 6, a player would probably need to dominate this match to get 3 in a row or atleast a period in play. I think it's worth laying the possibility. In their December match it was a first to 10 and nobody scored 3 frames in a row until 17 frames had been played. Match before it 11 frames were played before it happened and once again that was a "First to 10" 

If we look at "First to 6 matches" nobody hit 3 in a row in the last match (6-5 Robertson) 

3pts Either player to win 3 frames in a row? NO! 2/1 bet365

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The 2/1 comes in atleast after quite a poor match for Ronnie. He gave away too many chances to Robertson and Robertson took them well. 

I think Higgins beats Williams tonight. Higgins has looked really good for a while now and aslong as it's not a final that you're betting on, it's been profitable to follow him. I think he can win with a few in hand tonight, too. I like the chances of Higgins to win and hit the highest break, too.

3pts Higgins to hit 2+ century breaks 2/1 paddypower
2pts Either player to win 3 in a row? NO! 9/4 bet365
2pts Higgins to pot first ball, most century breaks and win 7/2 paddypower

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Todays matches then, Trump takes on Kyren Wilson and Hawkins takes on Selby. I'm quite tempted by Wilson but I fell in this trap last time and then Trump smashed him 6-0. Wilson has beaten Trump since 3-2 at the Championship League but I get the feeling on the big one-table style setup that Trump will probably win again. In the other match it wouldn't surprise me if Hawkins won, too. I didn't think much of Selby's performance atall in the last round and so perhaps it's a day of edging instead of big bets. 

4pts Selby and Trump to win Paddypower 5/4 paddypower
3pts Trump, K.Wilson, Hawkins, and Selby all to hit 1+ century 5/1 paddypower
2pts K.Wilson and Hawkins to win Paddypower 13/2 paddypower

edited to add prices (12.17pm)

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2 hours ago, chris666 said:

I had Higgins on yesterday, but my stake was refunded due to the deciding frame loss, this was with 888, completely forgot about this, so nice surprise!

I had a bet with 888 on Higgins Chris. Are you saying 888 refund single bet if it’s a deciding frame loss??

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On 1/14/2022 at 1:19 PM, Gazza36 said:

I had a bet with 888 on Higgins Chris. Are you saying 888 refund single bet if it’s a deciding frame loss??

I had two singles and a double on Higgins and O'Sullivan outright as well as -1.5 and they refunded the outright loss with the Higgins bet 

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15 minutes ago, chris666 said:

I had two singles and a double on Higgins and O'Sullivan outright as well as -1.5 and they refunded the outright loss with the Higgins bet 

HI Gazza36,  just double checked and 888 are offering "money back as a free bet if your player loses on a deciding frame "

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