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Racing Chat - Saturday January 8th


The Brigadier
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Eight races on ITV today from Sandown and Wincanton and although one of the lesser terrestrial TV days there’s still eight winner to be found!. The ground at both fixtures is likely to ride soft or even heavy with a band if wet weather predicted. Here’s my thought on the. :-

 

Wincanton 1.30

A competitive start to the ITV racing today but possibly a contender for one of the worst races shown by them! Thirteen go to post for this 1m 7F 50yds class 5 handicap hurdle. It may be poor pickings but there’s still a winner to be found and Planned Paradise has to be on the shortlist following a much improved effort when winning on his handicap debut at Newcastle in December. He’s up 11lb for that however and the ground will be significantly different today. Pittsburg landed a monumental gamble last time under Miss Alice Stevens at Catterick when defying his previous form figures of P00PP0P to win and has been raised 6lb. Pilsdon Pen is an interesting runner making his handicap debut for the in form Jeremy Scott stable who’s shown very little so far but any market support for him would be interesting. Top weight Coupdebol is also making his handicap debut and wasn’t disgraced in a Newbury novice won by I Am Maximus last time beaten 15L and can be competitive. I love a four year old in a handicap at this time of the of year as they receive a whopping 13lb age allowance and Nigel Hawke’s Inferno Sacree falls into that category so has to be part of my staking plan with top weight Coupdebol the main bet. 

COUPDEBOL 1 point each way @ 10/1 1/5 12345 Betfred

INFERNO SACREE 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365

 

Sandown 1.50

Favourite Gunsight Ridge bumped into one last time at Exeter when chasing home L’Homme Presse who’s won twice since including the Dipper Novices Chase at Cheltenham and is now some 26lb higher. Olly Murphy’s charge is without the doubt the one they all have to beat but has been priced accordingly and as a horse who’s actually only won one of his eight starts I’m happy to look elsewhere for some value. That may come from the top weight Moonlighter who ran better than his finishing position suggested last time out at Cheltenham and has dropped to a mark 3lb lower than when winning a similar contest over course and distance last February. Harry Cobden takes over from Tom Scudamore who remains faithful to Heather Main’s Numitor whom he usually rides. 

MOONLIGHTER 2 points win @ 13/2 Bet365

 

Wincanton 2.05

Run over just short of two miles this class 3 handicap chase sees ten going to post. Anthony Honeyball’s Belle De Manech has to be on the short list following his easy win here on Boxing Day bringing his course record to two wins from three starts but this represents a stiffer test dropping in trip and having been raised 10lb. He has to give weight all round but top weight Grey Diamond trained by Sam Thomas looks likely to give his running and appeals as each way value. This represents a drop in class for the eight year old as he has shown up well in grade 1 and class 2 handicaps this season and can race today off of a handicap mark only 3lb higher than when winning at Sandown in March. He won’t mind the likely soft ground and is worth a small stakes each way bet with Jack Tudor who still claims 3lb doing the steering for the first time. 

GREY DIAMOND 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Sandown 2.25

Six smart novices go to post for this years renewal of the 2 mile Tolworth Novices Hurdle and I’ll be shocked if Nicked Henderson’s Constitution Hill can’t win this. He was super impressive when quickening away on the run in in excellent fashion over course and distance a month ago and will be at prohibitive odds. A no bet race for me but let’s hope he’s as good as he looked last time. Gary Moore’s Shallwehaveonemore can chase him home.

 

Wincanton 2.40

A bakers dozen go to post for this class 3 handicap hurdle and there is one horse here who could be thrown in. Philip Hobbs saddles his handicap debutant Crossing The Bar who was rated 83 on the flat when trained by Sir Michael Stoute and was sold out of his Newmarket stable for 60,000 guineas at the August horse in training sales at Newmarket. He’s shown promise in his two novice hurdles at Lingfield and Ffos Las with his third at the latter in December already been boosted by the horse that was 18L behind him in fourth Pageant Material winning a novice hurdle since at Ffos Las. An initial mark of 108 compared to his flat mark suggest the handicapper has erred on the side of caution and with stable jockey Tom O’Brien in the saddle can take what looks to be a winnable handicap. Nicky Henderson’s handicap debutant Blairgowrie has to be respected along with the well handicapped Apple Rock. 

CROSSING THE BAR 2 points each way @ 9/2 1/5 1234 Bet365

 

Sandown 3.00

Run over three miles, thirteen chasers have assembled for this veterans handicap chase and although I’m loathe to be tipping favourites in this style of event I do think that the top weight Aso, trained by Venetia Williams will be hard to beat. Runner up in the 2019 Ryanair Chase he got up to the dizzy heights of being officially rated 168 and races here today off of a mark 21lb lower than his pomp. He showed last time that he retains plenty of ability as he chased home Blaklion at Haydock and that one has come out since and bolted up again. Charlie Deutsch rides and he looks worth a bet today. Fergal O’Brien’s 13 year old Final Nudge and Philip Hobb’s Rolling Dylan look likely dangers. 

ASO 3 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

Wincanton 3.15

Only six run in this 2m 4F handicap chase in which top weight Stolen Silver looks the most likely winner. Sam Thomas and Jack Tudor who have a solid chance with Grey Diamond in the 2.05 has to give weight all round but if he can replicate either his Market Rasen win in October or his runners up effort at Cheltenham in November will be hard to beat. He’s obviously highly thought of by his shrewd trainer as he ran him in the grade one Henry VIII novices chase at Sandown last time out where he appeared to be out of his depth against the likes of Edwardstone. Slate House is a very interesting runner for the Tizzards. He’s dropped a stone since we last saw him over fences and wears blinkers for the first time today. He’s not been running well over timber mind but it would be no shock were he to run well here but for me it has to be Stolen Silver. 

STOLEN SILVER 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365

 

Sandown 3.35

Jane Williams won this handicap with a similar sort in Monsieur Lecoq back in 2019 and can take this eight runner handicap hurdle once more with her lightly raced five year old Hermes Boy who is making his handicap debut today. He got off the mark at the fourth time of asking at Exeter a month ago when winning a novice hurdle that has worked out well (the third Dubrovnik Harry has bolted up since) and with no doubt more improvement to come can take this from some more experienced and exposed handicappers the best of whom may well be Mack The Man who will love the soggy conditions. 

HERMES BOY 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

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Kodi Gold 1.10 Lingfield. Well backed just before the off here last time over 6f, was slowly away and only really got going entering the straight but could never quite get there. Extra furlong should suit and clearly in good form, 11/4 seems pretty fair to me.

 

Final Nudge 3:00 Sandown. This could be a real slog given the weather forecast! Aso obviously has a touch of class, but I think it would take a big performance to give weight all round. Final Nudge stays all day and gets a very useful 12lb from Aso and can grind him down. 7/2 from 6/1 already.

 

Both found one too good, pretty frustrating but there you go 😌

Edited by yossa6133
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3 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Kodi Gold 1.10 Lingfield. Well backed just before the off here last time over 6f, was slowly away and only really got going entering the straight but could never quite get there. Extra furlong should suit and clearly in good form, 11/4 seems pretty fair to me.

 

Final Nudge 3:00 Sandown. This could be a real slog given the weather forecast! Aso obviously has a touch of class, but I think it would take a big performance to give weight all round. Final Nudge stays all day and gets a very useful 12lb from Aso and can grind him down. 7/2 from 6/1 already.

Yeah 3:00 Sandown is the veterans race, looked long and hard and its a race i should leave well alone but i notice Dancing Shadow 25/1 (older than me) was close up to the half fancied in this wanderin star which is around 9/1 Dancing shadow rarely won but did manage to win over 4 miles so there is quite a bit to say for it at that price.

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53 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I remember reading somewhere that you should back the younger horses in these events.

I think you are right i remember reading that too, although if i remember correctly that applied in Good ground but skews a little in soft/heavy

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220 lingfield.

headingly looks bit out at this class atm and habit rouge needs a market check but may be worth backing if comes in. chance looks decent bet rested 4.3 betfair exchange when im unsure alexander will do well on the longer trip and higher possible pace.

Screenshot_20220108-020217.png

Edited by Wildgarden
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11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Yeah 3:00 Sandown is the veterans race, looked long and hard and its a race i should leave well alone but i notice Dancing Shadow 25/1 (older than me) was close up to the half fancied in this wanderin star which is around 9/1 Dancing shadow rarely won but did manage to win over 4 miles so there is quite a bit to say for it at that price.

Forgive me but does that make you 12 years old?

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11 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Yeah 3:00 Sandown is the veterans race, looked long and hard and its a race i should leave well alone but i notice Dancing Shadow 25/1 (older than me) was close up to the half fancied in this wanderin star which is around 9/1 Dancing shadow rarely won but did manage to win over 4 miles so there is quite a bit to say for it at that price.

Also the longest traveller making the 384 mile round trip from the V.Dartnall yard but 3 wins from 44 & preference for the faster surface I swerved the race completely though FINAL NUDGE with 8 wins on soft from 33 starts warrants a look if drifts .

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11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I remember reading somewhere that you should back the younger horses in these events.

Like all of us oldies , it depends what side of the bed you get out of & what the days aches & pains are like if you perform well or not 😆

Regarding your younger horses comment , in these Veterans races I think 10 year olds have the best win % though not sure where you can find data to back this up just an observation .

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10 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1230 lingfield princesse animale 9/2 bet365

go e/w but could go on and win. alcazan who beat kodi was poor yesterday and princesse has only had one race above it in class 2 last race. rated okay some value here imo

Screenshot_20220108-014725.png

I think this should read the 1.10 at Lingfield

 

Impressive result in the 11.30 BTW. You could have gone for the forecast.

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Pheww!! very challenging racing today

I have decided on two Trixies:

12.48 Nc Without Conviction 7/4

1.23 Nc Bavington Bob 7/4l

1.50 San Numitor 5/2

1 x 4 pt win Trixie = poss return 53.28 pts

 

2.05 Win Grey Diamond 3/1

3.15 Win Stolen Silver 3/1

3.35 San Hermes Boy 9/4

1 x 2 pts win Trixie = poss return 47 pts

Singles:

2.40 Win Earth Business 1 pt win at 8/1

2.20 Lin Habit Rouge 1.50 pts win at 7/2

8.5 pts staked

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
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37 minutes ago, maxironchin said:

I think this should read the 1.10 at Lingfield

 

Impressive result in the 11.30 BTW. You could have gone for the forecast.

i often get tricast or combo tricast but i dont do it often as the value is in the singles level stakes really. think the tricast and forecast wins even out when u get losing ones so similar to profits on single level stakes anyway. id do more combo forecast accas but many bookies dont do them

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11 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

1230 lingfield princesse animale 9/2 bet365

go e/w but could go on and win. alcazan who beat kodi was poor yesterday and princesse has only had one race above it in class 2 last race. rated okay some value here imo

Screenshot_20220108-014725.png

4th disappointing but one to watch out for. shortlist the quad cast lmao with 4 rated backed in to win (didnt have enough data on winner shoudlve known)

Edited by Wildgarden
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2 hours ago, calva decoy said:

Regarding your younger horses comment , in these Veterans races I think 10 year olds have the best win % though not sure where you can find data to back this up just an observation .

Over the last 6 years for this race the 11yo are 3 from 50, 12yo 1 from 26 and 13yo 2 from 10.

The standout trend for me in this race is horses that last ran more than 32 days ago have a record of 0 from 44. This reduces the field to 1, INDY FIVE, available at 17/2.

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