Racing Chat - Friday 7th October

[MCLARKE]

NH selection

Wetherby 2.35

BALKARDY 10/3

This system is based on young horses (<7) that have had a break of 3 weeks or more and do not carry more than 12 stone. 

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Wolverhampton 5.00

IMPULSIVE ONE 10/11

[The Equaliser]

Looked at 10 races today; some of them look really tough

My Trixie today is:

1.25 Weth Readysteadybeau 5/4 (Napped 6 times in the press; can't lose can it?)

2.00 Weth Geryville 5/4

3.05 Weth Relkadam 15/4

1 x 4 pts win Trixie; poss return 50.48

Singles:

12.50 Weth Raquisa 0.5 pts at 12/1

2.00 Weth Guetapan Collonges 1 pt win at 6/1

2..35 Weth Balkardy 2 pts win at 5.4 (poss profit 8.62)

3.35 Weth Burrow Seven (too short at 5/1)

6.00 Wolv Daheer (too short at 11/4)

6.30 Wolv Parallel World 1 pt win at 4/1; Volatile Analyst (way too short at 7/4 in a very competitive race)

Total stakes 8.5

Good luck to all punting today' I've got a feeling you're gonna need it ?

 

[Bang on]

I have been looking for a 3rd selection but couldn't quite commit. So I have gone with 2 selections today. I have backed them EW individually and in an EW double.

2.35 Weth - Maccloud - 6/1 (1/5 3 places) - Ann Duffield has another Irish recruit. This is first time in a handicap. It has had 1 race for her over 3m1f at Carlisle, today it runs over just 2 miles, a big step back in trip. It wears 1st time cheekpieces and has won a point race. - 3rd 9/1

3.20 Ling - Cafe Sydney - 9/2 (1/5 4 places) - I have been watching this horse for a while. It won a division of this race last year.  Has a decent jockey and trainer has had a couple of winners in the last fortnight (can be hard to predict). Should be placed at least. - 2nd 9/2

Prices are Bet365 B.O.G. - As stated earlier I have backed as EW singles and an EW double.

** Unlucky today, we turned a profit but came close to a nice double. 

Edited January 7, 2022 by Bang on

[The Equaliser]

No favourites have won in the UK so far today out of 7 races.  Oh to be a bookie.  Looks like the punters need global agreement; I'm on Balkardy with @MCLARKE.  I did look at @Bang on's horse Maccloud; it came in for a bit of support earlier but you can get 10/1 now.  Good luck to all but I hope that the favourite doesn't win on this occassion.  At least Guetepan Collonges got me out of trouble today ?

Edited January 7, 2022 by The Equaliser

[The Equaliser]

24 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

No favourites have won in the UK so far today out of 7 races.  Oh to be a bookie.  Looks like the punters need global agreement; I'm on Balkardy with @MCLARKE.  I did look at @Bang on's horse Maccloud; it came in for a bit of support earlier but you can get 10/1 now.  Good luck to all but I hope that the favourite doesn't win on this occassion.  At least Guetepan Collonges got me out of trouble today ?

The punters get their favourite in; Maccloud runs a great race

Edited January 7, 2022 by The Equaliser

[azzybear]

quick change 4.30 power drive 4.45 

[azzybear]

chipiron 5.00

[azzybear]

nr power drive I'll look at the rest of the races over 

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm on Balkardy with @MCLARKE.

Completed a very poor couple of days for me. In hindsight I should have been put off by the jockey, 17 wins from 368 rides (4.6%) and an AE of 0.53.

[azzybear]

leave it at that no need to look now

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, azzybear said:

leave it at that no need to look now

Well done on a really bad day for a lot of people

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Completed a very poor couple of days for me. In hindsight I should have been put off by the jockey, 17 wins from 368 rides (4.6%) and an AE of 0.53.

The RP show 33/312 = 11% over past 5 seasons.  I don't trust the stats that get bandied about.  Presumably Isobel is the daughter of Evan. 

I do wish their were better stats for trainers and jockeys.  For example breaking down Dr Richard Newlands runners over different courses, distances, types of races etc.  There is next to nothing out there including horserace base, RP, Geegeez etc.  All pretty poor when there could be a lot more detailed analysis for both trainers and jockeys

 

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Looked at 10 races today; some of them look really tough

My Trixie today is:

1.25 Weth Readysteadybeau 5/4 (Napped 6 times in the press; can't lose can it?)

2.00 Weth Geryville 5/4

3.05 Weth Relkadam 15/4

1 x 4 pts win Trixie; poss return 50.48

Singles:

12.50 Weth Raquisa 0.5 pts at 12/1

2.00 Weth Guetapan Collonges 1 pt win at 6/1

2..35 Weth Balkardy 2 pts win at 5.4 (poss profit 8.62)

3.35 Weth Burrow Seven (too short at 5/1)

6.00 Wolv Daheer (too short at 11/4)

6.30 Wolv Parallel World 1 pt win at 4/1; Volatile Analyst (way too short at 7/4 in a very competitive race)

Total stakes 8.5

Good luck to all punting today' I've got a feeling you're gonna need it ?

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Nothing much doing today.  I was begining to wish I'd backed Relkadam earlier; I saw it go to about at least 1.07 on the Betfair Betting Exchange and then got chinned by half a length.  One non runner and 1 winner at 6/1 so I lost a point today.  This brings my cumulative loss to -29.71 so far this month

Once again all the quality racing is saved for a Saturday.  I don't know how much time I can devote to too many races on offer, let's hope I choose the right ones.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

The RP show 33/312 = 11% over past 5 seasons.  I don't trust the stats that get bandied about. 

My stats were based on the last 6 years but only cover NH racing from November to April. That could be the reason for the discrepancy but I'm surprised it's so large.

[Bang on]

15 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

 

I do wish their were better stats for trainers and jockeys.  For example breaking down Dr Richard Newlands runners over different courses, distances, types of races etc.  There is next to nothing out there including horserace base, RP, Geegeez etc.  All pretty poor when there could be a lot more detailed analysis for both trainers and jockeys

 

The Racing Post sell a book each season ' TRAINERS' Jump statistics (season).

It breaks down NH Flat, Hurdles, Chases, Total.  Also by Month, Distance, Racetype, Class, Jockeys riding for trainer, Courses etc. 

It is ok but you can start to drown amongst all of the statistics - life is too short. ?