Tennis Tips - February 7 - February 13

[vvararu]

I like Sonego over Baez @1.84 unibet.

They both have very good results on clay. Baez starting 2021 and Sonego starting 2019. Regardless, Sonego has a much better record of achievements: Rublev, Thiem, Frietz, Djere… He started this year with a win over Carballes Baena and lost, pretty closely, to the Cordoba champion - Ramos.

Also, Sonego has already beaten Baez this year.

Even if Baez played well lately, I’ll favor the more experienced player to win again.

[neilovan]

10 hours ago, Torque said:

Good luck @neilovan Personally I couldn't be backing Monteiro at such a short price as he's so unreliable - agree about Ruud though. Isner v Anderson looks like it could go either way, so whichever player gives you plus money looks the way to go. I like Norrie over Khachanov as he's the more complete player but I wouldn't want to back Bublik. Tournament winners from last week have been bombing out early so far.

You called it re Monteiro. He dropped the ball after an easy first set. Bublik also blew it while serving for the first set with 2 doubles (though 220kph second serves don't help).

[Beefcake]

12 hours ago, neilovan said:

At the ATP in Dallas I can't see much between Isner and Anderson. Just a serve bot contest, but Anderson will get better. That's a very tough, dedicated guy. Definitely getting trhe odds to go against Isner here. Nakashima regulation over Johnston.

In Buenos Aires I simply can't see 38 year old Verdasco competing, against a South American well used to the conditions. 3.8 to 10 looks fair odds for the Monteiro win. Ruud aklso wins easily. Small treble Ruud, Monteiro and Nakashima is 12 to 10 which is OK, and a double on Norrie over Khachanov and Bublik over Murray (3.2 to 1). Bublik a giant, in the absolute prime of his life with confidence, is a very tough task for Murray.

 

 

Neilovan, I very much enjoy reading your thoughts on the matches. Thank u for posting them.

[Beefcake]

8 hours ago, vvararu said:

I like Sonego over Baez @1.84 unibet.

They both have very good results on clay. Baez starting 2021 and Sonego starting 2019. Regardless, Sonego has a much better record of achievements: Rublev, Thiem, Frietz, Djere… He started this year with a win over Carballes Baena and lost, pretty closely, to the Cordoba champion - Ramos.

Also, Sonego has already beaten Baez this year.

Even if Baez played well lately, I’ll favor the more experienced player to win again.

Very nice call on that. 

[neilovan]

SO Thursday and weekend tennis coming up.

The problem with this stage of tournaments is that the majority of the time, the competition is close. A lower ranked player that gets to this stage has pulled off a win or two, and is playing above his expected level. It is far easier to find miss matches in the early rounds.

5 really tricky matches in Rotterdam.

van de Zandschulp at home should have an advantage but Lehecka played really well against Zverev. Held his nerve and finished the job. For me a very close matchup that probably goes 3 long sets (serve dominated). 

I think Tsitsipas could be in trouble with Ivashka. For me Ivashka very talented, but not focused. He throws away matches that he could win. But definitely a streaky dangerous opponent. In Tsitsipas, I don't really see improvements in his game. This years version looks like last years. He looks physically stronger, but that 1 handed backhand is a weakness. 

Griekspoor and Fucsovics both won in 3 sets , losing the 1st set. Griekspoor got a little lucky, because Karatsev played really badly at critical stages. 6-2 down first set with Karatsev serving for the match in the second. Russian goes to pieces. 3rd set Karatsev broke him 3 times, and still couldn't serve it out at 5-4 (again). Karatsev completely freaked out and smashed a racquet to bits, not recovering in the breaker (7-0 down). For me, Karatsev seems to have a problem when he has to generate pace. WHen he plays someone who hits it hard, he is far more comfortable.

Fucsovics definitely got better as his match went on, and I would give him the edge in this match.

 

Pick of the round is Murray v Aliassime. Man does Aliassime look to be in great shape. Very strong, lean with almost zero body fat, youth and no injuries. Physically he has been working out HARD! My only concern is while the physicality has come on leaps and bounds, he is strategically still trying to figure out his best game. Murray may not have all the bases covered (re injury, youth etc), but he knows his own game inside out, and knows what he needs to do to win here. Very close match  here, and I am siding with Murray. He knows what he needs to do to get back near the top, and it starts with a win today.

In the WTA ST. Petersburg (Thurs)

Only low odds fav my software likes is Ostapenko to beat Petkovic. The other 3 matches inconclusive.  Would be going with Kvitova who's serve seems to have made a comeback. She has a very solid 1st strike game behind it. Rybakina should win, but the Sasnovich v Cristian game could go either way,

Edited February 10, 2022 by neilovan

[DrO]

FAA had some ups and downs against Gerasimov,especially in first set,but then he raised his level of game and won very easily. If he can bring his game from Australia here,he should go deep in the tournament.

For me..FAA to beat (-2,5 games) Murray @1.70

[CzechPunter]

Maria Sakkari (-3) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.89 with Pinnacle

Can't wait for the week to finish, that was another disaster from Kvitova, not going to be backing her anytime soon. Sakkari seems to enjoy the conditions in Russia way more than Mertens and I'd venture to say that she's the better player of the two overall as well. Great attitude, always pumped up, willing to go for shots. I didn't like Mertens too much in the Australian Open either.

[Torque]

59 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Can't wait for the week to finish

Tell me about it. I'm 0 for 2 and probably about to go 0 for 3 with another underdog pick in Rodionov. He's taking on Pospisil in Dallas off the back of a win against Cressy, who's been one of the form players so far this season. Pospisil is on a good run himself, but if you look at who he's played it's not been the highest standard. Rodionov seems to be a player with potential whereas Pospisil looks like he's winding down - possibly with an eye on a tennis admin job once his playing career is through. Right now both players have a similar ranking, but I think they're going in different directions.

 

25pts Rodionov to beat Pospisil @ 3.40 365

[vvararu]

Watching Fognini - Martinez right now.

 

Fognini came back from a break in 1st set. Does not seem to be in his "I don't care" mood. Might win this imho.

[Torque]

Looking like Rodionov will lose. Had a match point on return in the second set but didn't take it, lost the second set tie-break then fell a break behind right at the start of the third. He's going to have to learn to tighten his serve up and close out games, because he was broken from 40-0 in the third, losing 5 points in a row. He did something similar in the first set when he lost 4 points in a row to get broken from 40-15 but got away with it when he won the first set tie-break. That's not something Pospisil would do and that's what's made the difference in this match and why Pospisil will probably win.

[Torque]

3 hours ago, Torque said:

Tell me about it. I'm 0 for 2 and probably about to go 0 for 3 with another underdog pick in Rodionov. He's taking on Pospisil in Dallas off the back of a win against Cressy, who's been one of the form players so far this season. Pospisil is on a good run himself, but if you look at who he's played it's not been the highest standard. Rodionov seems to be a player with potential whereas Pospisil looks like he's winding down - possibly with an eye on a tennis admin job once his playing career is through. Right now both players have a similar ranking, but I think they're going in different directions.

 

25pts Rodionov to beat Pospisil @ 3.40 365

0 for 3 for the week it is then. Fitting that Rodionov got broken again from 40-15 to lose the match - Pospisil's never been the best returner but at times Rodionov made him look like that. Sometimes it's just not your day - or week.

[neilovan]

22 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think Tsitsipas could be in trouble with Ivashka. For me Ivashka very talented, but not focused. He throws away matches that he could win. But definitely a streaky dangerous opponent. In Tsitsipas, I don't really see improvements in his game. This years version looks like last years. He looks physically stronger, but that 1 handed backhand is a weakness. 

Such a lesson to be learned about a player with a result like this. Ivashka doing OK in the first set, fighting, hanging in there. At 5-4 down he loses his serve and the set, and it's game over. Down's tools and rolls over in the second set 5-0 down in 15 minutes. It shows you the mental strength and character of the player, which in his case is not strong at all. To go through a database and identify these types of players will help in the future. ie How often do they lose a close 1st set (7-6, 7-5, 6-4) that they have invested in, and then collapse in the 2nd?

I remember a few years ago, I think before covid hit. Bianca Andrescu played Venus Williams in a warm up tourn (in either NZ or Aus) for the Aussie open. SHe lost the 1st set 7-6, and came back and won the next two 6-1 6-3. That shows you the mindset of a Champion!

[neilovan]

Rotterdam Today;

Quite hard to make a case against the 4 favs for today.

Tsitsipas has a perfect style matchup against Di Minaur. Di Minuar an excellent player, but with no big weapons. Sure, he is fast and very athletic, but that is a basic tool that all top players must have.  Comfortable straight sets for Tsitsipas here (games handicap -3.5 is 1.72 on bet365). I don't think any set goes to a breaker.

The Rublev v Fucsovics match looks very similar to  me. Should be a comfortable win for Rublev and I would be going game handicap again (-3.5 at 1.66).

Auger-Aliassime does to Norrie, what he did to Murray. High intensity, power game, early striking with front foot court position. His return of serve was excellent, breaking Murray 5 times. Norrie lost to Auger-Aliassime at the ATP cup (7-6 6-3) and I think that result is repeated here.

Will take all 3 as single bets and the Tsitsipas and Auger-Aliassime as a double.

Edited February 11, 2022 by neilovan

[raduvlad1995]

You guys think fucsovis will get curvestomped by rublev once more ? Rublev seems to have started to find his fh again from what I ve seen in his last match.

[raduvlad1995]

5 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Rotterdam Today;

Quite hard to make a case against the 4 favs for .

Tsitsipas has a perfect style matchup against Di Minaur. Di Minuar an excellent player, but with no big . Sure, he is fast and very , but that is a basic tool that all top players must have.  Comfortable straight sets for Tsitsipas here (games handicap -3.5 is 1.72 on bet365). I don't think any set goes to .

The Rublev v Fucsovics match looks very similar to  me. Should be a comfortable win for Rublev and I would be going game handicap again (-3.5 at 1.66).

Auger-Aliassime does to Norrie, what he did to Murray. High intensity, power game, early striking with front foot court position. His return of serve was excellent, breaking Murray 5 times. Norrie lost to Auger-Aliassime at the ATP cup (7-6 6-3) and I think that result is repeated here.

Will take all 3 as single bets and the Tsitsipas and Auger-Aliassime as a double.

It was so funny to me reading the tsitsipas de minaur analysis, 1 minute before I ve seen your comment posted I was thinking exactly the same thing about de minaur's style being tailormade for tsitsipas to attack. The only thing for me is that against fokina, stef was absolutely terrible IMO , I mean I ve never seen him hit so many bad forehands and I couldn t watch the ivashka match so I don't know if his level picked up there..

[neilovan]

Just now, raduvlad1995 said:

It was so funny to me reading the tsitsipas de minaur analysis, 1 minute before I ve seen your comment posted I was thinking exactly the same thing about de minaur's style being tailormade for tsitsipas to attack. The only thing for me is that against fokina, stef was absolutely terrible IMO , I mean I ve never seen him hit so many bad forehands and I couldn t watch the ivashka match so I don't know if his level picked up there..

He actually played very well against Ivashka. Few unforced errors, but Ivashka was serving second and under pressure almost every serve game. Tsitsipas was blasting through serve games in 95 seconds, serving rockets. When he got the first set break it turned into a demolition. 

[raduvlad1995]

1 minute ago, neilovan said:

He played very well against Ivashka. Few unforced errors, but Ivashka was serving second and under pressure every serve game. Tsitsipas was blasting through serve games in 95 seconds, serving rockets. When he got set break it turned into a . 

good to know, any opinions on musetti-lehecka ? I think lehecka is more composed but I just can't get past lorezo's pure talent and shotmaking ability, I d back him to win atleast a set.

[neilovan]

 

12 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

good to know, any opinions on musetti-lehecka ? I think lehecka is more composed but I just can't get past lorezo's pure talent and shotmaking ability, I d back him to win atleast a set.

Musetti is only 19, so still starting off his journey into pro tennis. I think that the match with Djoko at the French open, where he took the first two 7-6 7-6 and then blew up, had a detrimental effect on him. A little bit too much too soon, and he was not ready for the next phase. But the fact that he can take two tie breakers in a row against Djoko, shows you his inner mental strength.  

I definitely think he wins at least 1 set.

Edited February 11, 2022 by neilovan

[AdriaN92]

I would say Musetti Win and Tsitsipas loosing a Set ?

[AdriaN92]

I Would go for a Begu win aswell 

[four-leaf]

4 minutes ago, AdriaN92 said:

I Would go for a Begu win aswell 

Why Begu? Martincova can beat her all day and the czech is having the best time of her career.

[CzechPunter]

It's a tough set of fixtures and Martincova against Begu is one of the trickiest of them all, really. Martincova can bash her way to victory or error her way to a loss, like Kvitova did yesterday.

[DrO]

Tsitsipas had a bit slower start against Ivashka,but from 4:4 in 1st set,he won six games in a row,i think. He was on fire,very solid performance indeed. H2H with De Minaur stands strongly on Greek's side..so i think another win is on card for him

Tsitsipas to beat (-3,5 games) De MInaur @1.75

[neilovan]

6 hours ago, neilovan said:

Such a lesson to be learned about a player with a result like this. Ivashka doing OK in the first set, fighting, hanging in there. At 5-4 down he loses his serve and the set, and it's game over. Down's tools and rolls over in the second set 5-0 down in 15 minutes. It shows you the mental strength and character of the player, which in his case is not strong at all. To go through a database and identify these types of players will help in the future. ie How often do they lose a close 1st set (7-6, 7-5, 6-4) that they have invested in, and then collapse in the 2nd?

 

Elise Mertens v Sakkari, perfect example.

[CzechPunter]

3 hours ago, neilovan said:

Elise Mertens v Sakkari, perfect example.

And I'm glad!

[AdriaN92]

7 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Why Begu? Martincova can beat her all day and the czech is having the best time of her career.

Because Irina played quite well against Zhang , around 75-80% of winning 1st serve and having 13 Bp , 5 converted , after that playing agains Petra Kvitova  with a first serve 70%+ and win a second set 6-0 she should show some good tennis and agresive return.The other side Martincova style of play is more agresive and sometimes she do to many mistakes . So was just a personal felling that Begu is gonna play better tennis and more consistent.

 

[vvararu]

What do you think guys about Schwartzman versus Cerundolo. 

Diego looked impressive in the match against Munar and did not show any health issues signs. Should be good to go against Cerundolo?

[vvararu]

Very bizzare play of Sonego in 2nd set. Leading 4:0 against 38 years Verdasco and losing advantage to 5:6. Let’s see how it finishes…

He did it till the end, in tie-break. Still, not an easy task for Sonego to get from 4:0 to 6:6

Edited February 11, 2022 by vvararu

[Torque]

1 hour ago, vvararu said:

What do you think guys about Schwartzman versus Cerundolo. 

Diego looked impressive in the match against Munar and did not show any health issues signs. Should be good to go against Cerundolo?

I'm not sure. Should be an easy win for him but he's not really a player you can trust to win without complications.

[vvararu]

The wind is too strong for Schwartzman to produce powerful shots ?