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Australian Open 2022


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9 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I personally don't rate Keys as a top 15 players. Sure, she can be there every once in a while, but she can be all over the place as well. Obviously, I'm not saying Keys doesn't have much of a chance, she clearly does, but I prefer to back the reliable player there, especially since Keys seems overvalued on the back of that win that was more down to Badosa not playing decent tennis at all. Incidentally, Kanepi now ensured that I'm winning my bet on Krejcikova to go further than Sabalenka, while she also probably ensured the bet on Swiatek to win her quarter....she just has to lose against her for that to come in!

Keys had a bad last year, but her rankings have been top 20 from 2015 right through 2021. She can really play ... just needs to get out of her own way at times.

https://www.wtatennis.com/players/316959/madison-keys/rankings-history

Edited by neilovan
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Even now 6 to 10. Monfils with all the momentum, on the court for 5 hours less, serving first in the 5th. I think it's a gift. Berrettini looks tired, serve speed is right down. Game over.

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43 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Even now 6 to 10. Monfils with all the momentum, on the court for 5 hours less, serving first in the 5th. I think it's a gift. Berrettini looks tired, serve speed is right down. Game over.

Really, is this even believable. Has the match on a plate and bricks it 😩 Both matches decided in 5, by a 5th set that went completely opposite to the momentum. Earlier, I thought Nadal would not win the 5th. He looked done as well. 

Strange day, great tennis though.

Edited by neilovan
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Honestly don't see much betting-wise for tomorrow myself. For the WTA, the favorites should win, but the odds aren't great and I'm a bit wary of the handicap lines, especially seeing how fatigue can now influence things, see Krejcikova from today. Both Collins and Cornet have shown signs of being tired already, so predicting that one is impossible, really!

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3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Honestly don't see much betting-wise for tomorrow myself. For the WTA, the favorites should win, but the odds aren't great and I'm a bit wary of the handicap lines, especially seeing how fatigue can now influence things, see Krejcikova from today. Both Collins and Cornet have shown signs of being tired already, so predicting that one is impossible, really!

I do think that Kanepi gets easily beaten by Swiatek. Not gonna get 15 double faults which is almost 4 free games. Swiatek looks better and better as the matches go on.

I think the Collins match is a tough one. Most did not expect Cornet to beat Muguruza and Halep and I think Collins is the easiest of these 3 opponents for her. Styles wise very similar. I thought Halep played a poor 3rd set ... so neutral and reactive, but Cornet hung in there, made few mistakes and was very solid.  

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What do you think about the Berrettini-Nadal match? Rafa will have a better chance now when he has 2 days of rest but it looked tough against Shapovalov. I think Matteo could have the weapons to get the win here, he proved that he has the stamina too for a 5-set match if this goes to distance. Tough to say, but if Berrettini's odds are around 2.7 or better, I could take the bet.

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26 minutes ago, Judeksi said:

What do you think about the Berrettini-Nadal match? Rafa will have a better chance now when he has 2 days of rest but it looked tough against Shapovalov. I think Matteo could have the weapons to get the win here, he proved that he has the stamina too for a 5-set match if this goes to distance. Tough to say, but if Berrettini's odds are around 2.7 or better, I could take the bet.

Well the rest thing is a little odd. Rafa played earlier, but it was hotter. So he has an extra few hours rest, but it was pretty damn hot. For whatever reason the Aussie Open is not a great tournament for him. He won just 1 time (2009), so something doesn't work at this venue. I think he hits the ball a little too short, and players just climb in and bash him around. Maybe it works on the clay, but definitely not so well here. 

Also, what was it where he went off for full medical time out.  A sore stomach or an abdominal strain? Because if it's an abdominal strain he has no chance.

Berrettini has this crazy ability to get out of trouble behind his serve. His 1st strike tennis is excellent, and only Monfils terrific physical prowess got him back in the match.  For me the ability of Berrettini to pick up so many free points will see him over the line.

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For ATP, I might actually be backing Berrettini in some regard. His simple yet efficient serve and forehand combo will win him many cheap points even against Nadal and he has shown good willpower as well, he didn't bend over to Djokovic last year on any occasion, despite being relatively inexperienced on the Grand Slam stage. Medvedev should win handily if he's fully fit, while Sinner Tsitsipas has the making of either a horribly lopsided match or one for the ages. Both have the X factor and both can implode as well.

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Well, I'm not sure that I trust him that much. He's had his own niggles earlier on in the tournament and Nadal fought well today, really. At these odds, I find it hard to value in anything, perhaps I'd even go for Nadal if he drifts out a bit!

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I'm not taking any match bets today, just a few more outright bets on the exchanges in the shape of Sinner, Collins and Keys. Sinner should have a good chance against Tsitsipas who's not been at his best during this tournament and I think Collins beats Cornet, who had a big win against Halep and wins like that can be hard to back up. I'm adding to my position on Keys because she's always been a momentum player and right now she has momentum on her side. Usually it goes hand in hand with how she's serving and right now she's serving really well.

 

5pts Sinner to win ATP Australian Open @ 15.70

15pts Collins to win WTA Australian Open @ 14.72

10pts Keys to win WTA Australian Open @ 8.84

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So Sinner Tsitsipas was indeed horribly lopsided! Yeah, at the current odds, it seems more logical to me to side with Nadal, who has that backhand side going for him. Basically, Berrettini has to have his serve firing, which I think it will, and that should make it reasonably close. Nadal will be pummeling his backhand in rallies, though, which won't be easy for him to deal with. It could be a cracking contest, though. Remember, Berrettini only lost to Djokovic in Grand Slams last year, which is excellent. But Nadal now has a serious claim to the title and it would be a MASSIVE one for him to win.

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What chances of Danielle Collins beating Iga Swiatek. She has looked so good during this tournament where as her opponent has had a few three set matches when she could easily have lost them. Im going for Collins to win at 7/4 and 11/8  for three sets in the match all with Paddy Power

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6 hours ago, owenclass said:

What chances of Danielle Collins beating Iga Swiatek. She has looked so good during this tournament where as her opponent has had a few three set matches when she could easily have lost them. Im going for Collins to win at 7/4 and 11/8  for three sets in the match all with Paddy Power

Collins has a reasonable chance here. For me, very similar playing styles, not much volleying, baseline grinding.  SHould Swiatek be 1.66? A bit to low for me, as there is very little between them. 

 

  1. Today
    Semi-final·Rod Laver Arena
    11:45
    wj9uZvn_vZrelLFGH8fnPA_48x48.png
    27
    D. Collins
     
    yTS_Piy3M1wUBnqU0n5aAw_48x48.png
    7
    I. Świątek
     
    Yesterday
    Quarter-final·Rod Laver Arena
    Final
    wj9uZvn_vZrelLFGH8fnPA_48x48.png
    27
    D. Collins
    7
    6
     
    z3JEQB3coEAGLCJBEUzQ2A_48x48.png
     
    A. Cornet
    5
    1
     
    Mon, 24 Jan
    Fourth round·Rod Laver Arena
    Final
    wj9uZvn_vZrelLFGH8fnPA_48x48.png
    27
    D. Collins
    4
    6
    6
     
    6SF7yEoB60bU5knw-M7R5Q_48x48.png
    19
    E. Mertens
    6
    4
    4
     
    Sat, 22 Jan
    Third round·Rod Laver Arena
    Final
    LaOvu-pyRqRso6uzff55XA_48x48.png
     
    C. Tauson
    6
    4
    5
     
    wj9uZvn_vZrelLFGH8fnPA_48x48.png
    27
    D. Collins
    4
    6
    7
     
    Thu, 20 Jan
    Second round·1573 Arena
    Final
    9toerdOg8xW4CRhDaZxsyw_48x48.png
     
    A. Konjuh
    4
    3
     
    wj9uZvn_vZrelLFGH8fnPA_48x48.png
    27
    D. Collins
    6
    6
     
    Tue, 18 Jan
    First round·1573 Arena
    Final
    wj9uZvn_vZrelLFGH8fnPA_48x48.png
     
    C. Dolehide
    1
    3
     
    wj9uZvn_vZrelLFGH8fnPA_48x48.png
    27
    D. Collins
    6
    6
     

    Collins will not really be coming into this match fatigued. The second set v Cornet was easy. But that she could beat Mertens and Tauson after dropping the 1st set in both matches, is an indicator of her physical ability and mental fortitude.

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43 minutes ago, Giantlife said:

Thank you for all the comments guys. what do you think about barty & keys match up ? I think Barty will win but I think keys can cover the +4,5 handicap ? What do you think ?

Someone like Keys really only has one style of play. Hard hitting, aggressive, going for shots. Short points, first strike tennis. When it works it looks great, and is very difficult to beat. But if Barty finds a solution earlier it could be tickets...

But the big problem against Barty is that she has so much talent, and can really play in multiple styles in a particular match.  She can slice that backhand all day, but also come over it and hit it hard just as easily. She can roll in a first serve, or crank it, or slice it wide to the forehand. She has so many weapons at her disposal, and she understands when and how to use them. That ability to adapt, and solve in match problems makes her an extremely difficult, tricky opponent.

I would be having a close look at the first couple of games. How easily does Keys hold her serve? Can she compete and put pressure on Barty serve games. Take this bet possibly in-play after 1 or two games.

If I was backing Keys in any form, I would be taking her outright to win with a small stake. Generous odds, and if she gets on a roll, she could actually over-power Barty. It's quite odd to play against someone who is playing power tennis. The game has no rhythm, and becomes stop-start and herky- jerky. 

You also can't really discount two excellent wins over Badosa and Krejcikova. Flattened both of them.

Edited by neilovan
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Daniil Medvedev (-1.5 sets) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.92 with Sbobet

Tsitsipas has been mighty impressive getting here, especially after such a bad prep, but I think he'll come up well short in this one. Sinner just self-destructed, as I imagined he could - and it was one of those lopsided encounters that these younger guns can produce. Here, though, Medvedev should prove as a tougher challenge and he looked really good against FAA, who was playing top tennis himself. I'm taking the handicap instead of the moneyline, since I find it hard to believe that Medvedev would be the favorite going into five sets due to accumulated fatigue.

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