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Australian Open 2022


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Where are the Zverev “lovers” gone?!

I love Zverev as a person, and as a player, however he still has many things “to sort out” before he even comes near Medvedev. It is not really worth comparing him with Djoko. Novak is just a different class. The only one who can give Novak a game at the moment is Medvedev, unless he has a bad day, then there are few players who can also compete including Zverev. 
Lets hope Sasha just forgets last game agains Shapo and start thinking about the preparation for the next tournament.

My prediction - Medvedev to win AO! 

and, if Nadal can overcome last nights brilliant Shapovalov

then…

Final Nadal vs Medvedev - 1:3

 

Edited by Foxstar
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2 hours ago, Foxstar said:

Where are the Zverev “lovers” gone?!

I'm still here. I admit I was way off last night. Zverev was a totally different player lol. It was as if he didn't wanna qualify to the next round. It was so lopsided that it makes you wonder what really happened to him. 

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I like de Minaur and Tsitsipas to win.

Alex is very dangerous and I feel that he shouldn't fluctuate in these odds. I'm happy to buy him at 3.05 though, kinda juicy, don't you think? Taylor Fritz must be the best American tennis player for quite some time now, but Tsitsipas (1.6-1.65) is well aware of that. I expect him to raise his game and respond well to this challenge. He certainly has the weapons to do so. 

I cannot see Swiatek losing to a player like Cirstea, but the odds are too short. 

Good luck.

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Not much time until play starts for the day. I've started to cover my outright bets and below is what I've got so far, all on the exchanges.

 

5pts Halep to win WTA Australian Open @ 6.29

5pts Swiatek to win WTA Australian Open @ 7.47

15pts Krejcikova to win WTA Australian Open @ 13.74

15pts Keys to win WTA Australian Open @ 16.19

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Halep vs Cornet One of the matches tonight that has caught my interest. I really think the price on Halep to win is ridiculously high. I must admit that Halep wins matches that she is supposed to win and as much as I admire her current 8match run streak, I was not entirely impressed by the opposition. Cornet on the other hand has started the year well with a number of impressive victories. The match against Osaka at Melbourne, and Muguruza and Zidansek in the second and third round respectively is my gauge to know what to expect from her in the next hour or so. Importantly enough her head to head with Halep stands at 3-1 with a game superiority evident in the sets played. I am expecting Cornet to be her usual defiant grinding self and give Halep a good run for her money. I will suggest for parlays Cornet +7.5 @4/11 (Alternative handicaps Paddy Power) Verdict: Over 17.5 games @ Paddy Power 4/7

Edited by liquidglass
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Barbora Krejcikova to beat Madison Keys at 1.80 with William Hill

Going to be a bit patriotic here and stick with Krejcikova. She's been reading strong serves well so far in this tournament and she will be keeping Keys at bay during rallies, forcing her into many extra shots and drawing errors. The win over Badosa was mainly down to Badosa struggling both mentally and physically, which shouldn't be a freebie with Krejcikova.

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9 hours ago, Foxstar said:

Where are the Zverev “lovers” gone?!

I love Zverev as a person, and as a player, however he still has many things “to sort out” before he even comes near Medvedev. It is not really worth comparing him with Djoko. Novak is just a different class. The only one who can give Novak a game at the moment is Medvedev, unless he has a bad day, then there are few players who can also compete including Zverev. 
Lets hope Sasha just forgets last game agains Shapo and start thinking about the preparation for the next tournament.

My prediction - Medvedev to win AO! 

and, if Nadal can overcome last nights brilliant Shapovalov

then…

Final Nadal vs Medvedev - 1:3

 

Very surprised by how poorly Zverev played. I didn't bet it, but expected him to win. Didn't like him smashing the racquet to pieces after the 1st game of the 2nd set. It's such a bad example from a 'pro'. Unacceptable behavior! Never seen Nadal break a racquet!

For me Zverev and Tsitsipas are very similar. 2nd tier (when compared to Djoko,Nadal, Medvedev) with some internal issues, and suspect decision making and shot selection.

Just watched the Halep match. To win 16 points in a row and be on such a roll going into the 3rd set ... and then give it away playing meek and mild tennis, with crazy unforced errors. That's Halep. Every ball hit right back down the middle of the court with a reactive instead of proactive style. She deserved what she got. Cornet cost me two bets this Aussie open  (beating Muguruza and now Halep), but she did keep it together in that 3rd set.

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Long time lurker, decided to post tonight - finally. It is good.

TSITSIPAS 50U

TSITSIPAS -1.5 on the sets 10U

TSITSIPAS -2.5 on the sets 5U

I am betting a very amazing huge sum on Tsitsipas today, like more than anyone should on a tennis. It's going to sound untrue but I have info on Stefanos' training regiment and his preparations for this match - he's going to beat Taylor Fritz and very sternly. His elbow is also 100 percent. He prepared for this event with replicating the court, even managed to get info on the exact balls being used. He has been preparing to play Fritz in this round for weeks. Yes it sounds dumb but I know this talking to people that work for him. His strategy will be new on the return of serve today, watch and see.

I want my first post to be a win so I'm putting it out there that Tsitsipas will win this match. If I am using a structure of units I will dedicate 50 units to this choice. 

Please don't be duped in by the Fritz match with RBA when RBA hurt himself in the set and wasn't 100 percent. Look what Fritz needed to do still. You will see early how easy Stefanos will hold serve and gain traction into Fritz serve very early. Do no make the mistake of Fritz today please. Join me on this and be happy in about 6 Horus from now.

Thank you,

Suspender

 

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3 hours ago, neilovan said:

Very surprised by how poorly Zverev played. I didn't bet it, but expected him to win. Didn't like him smashing the racquet to pieces after the 1st game of the 2nd set. It's such a bad example from a 'pro'. Unacceptable behavior! Never seen Nadal break a racquet!

For me Zverev and Tsitsipas are very similar. 2nd tier (when compared to Djoko,Nadal, Medvedev) with some internal issues, and suspect decision making and shot selection.

Just watched the Halep match. To win 16 points in a row and be on such a roll going into the 3rd set ... and then give it away playing meek and mild tennis, with crazy unforced errors. That's Halep. Every ball hit right back down the middle of the court with a reactive instead of proactive style. She deserved what she got. Cornet cost me two bets this Aussie open  (beating Muguruza and now Halep), but she did keep it together in that 3rd set.

I think you are overreacting with the Zverev racket smashing episode. Racket smashing is a very acceptable part of the game depicting a release of bad energy which fans love. It is just another game assessory like groaning, a loud short scream at the end of a brutally fought out point or even smashing a ball out of the stadium in annoyance. Players react differently. Then again, we have never even seen Nadal express any outward emotion of any sort. He just gets on with the game in his own way.

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29 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

I think you are overreacting with the Zverev racket smashing episode. Racket smashing is a very acceptable part of the game depicting a release of bad energy which fans love. It is just another game assessory like groaning, a loud short scream at the end of a brutally fought out point or even smashing a ball out of the stadium in annoyance. Players react differently. Then again, we have never even seen Nadal express any outward emotion of any sort. He just gets on with the game in his own way.

It's not an acceptable part of the game. If it were, players wouldn't be penalised for doing it. And it does set a bad example like @neilovansaid.

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28 minutes ago, Torque said:

It's not an acceptable part of the game. If it were, players wouldn't be penalised for doing it. And it does set a bad example like @neilovansaid.

100% agree, It's bad form, and it's bad to show your opponent your poor mental state (in any form of competition). You don't do yourself any favors. The fan's are just laughing because they see someone who does do it (Djokovic), having a meltdown.

I once played a guy in junior comp (1976 when racquets were wood and expensive). He got so mad he hurled his racquet against the fence. Missed the fence and flew over into a tree, where it got stuck 5 meters up. He only had 1 racquet and had to forfeit. One of my best wins 😁😃

Edited by neilovan
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21 minutes ago, Torque said:

It's not an acceptable part of the game. If it were, players wouldn't be penalised for doing it. And it does set a bad example like @neilovansaid.

Again I beg to differ. I do not know what you classify as acceptable in your opinion. the fact that players get penalised in no way amplifies your point. That is why a person like McEnroe was popular even for his offensive rantings on court. The tennis world came to love him for that and would even get a buzz from it. It is not like you are talking about something entirely despicable here. In football, a player will score a goal and intentionally take of his jersey to purposely collect a yellow card. It is the norm You need to be sure you are quite capable of defining the word "acceptable" in relation to the topic being discussed before jumping in.

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1 hour ago, liquidglass said:

Again I beg to differ. I do not know what you classify as acceptable in your opinion. the fact that players get penalised in no way amplifies your point. That is why a person like McEnroe was popular even for his offensive rantings on court. The tennis world came to love him for that and would even get a buzz from it. It is not like you are talking about something entirely despicable here. In football, a player will score a goal and intentionally take of his jersey to purposely collect a yellow card. It is the norm You need to be sure you are quite capable of defining the word "acceptable" in relation to the topic being discussed before jumping in.

I'm entirely capable of defining the word 'acceptable'. The only reason McEnroe came to be 'loved' as you put it is because he became a parody. People began to find his behaviour funny and didn't take it seriously and he began to play up to that, but that certainly wasn't the prevailing attitude when he was first doing it and people found it offensive. As for 'jumping in' with my opinion, that's entirely my prerogative just as it was yours to give your opinion. We clearly differ in our thoughts about what constitutes acceptable behaviour and that's fine. But the idea you get to say what you think without anybody else responding with a contrary opinion isn't what this forum is about.

From my perspective, just because something is prevalent doesn't make it acceptable which is what you seem to be suggesting. There are lots of examples of things in society that go on all the time but which nobody would call acceptable. Comparing smashing a racket with removing a football shirt after scoring a goal isn't a fair comparison either. When that happens it's celebrating something positive. I don't think you can say the same about smashing a racket.

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Monfils is simply playing fantastic tennis. Had a reasonably easy run, only facing the 16th seed in Garin. But here he is in the quarters having not dropped a set. In 12 sets he has also had 5 sets where he has broken serve multiple times. That ratio is big, showing solid return games. Married life is treating him well, and he looks very happy on the court.

Berrettini has a cannon for a serve, but for me he has a really weak backhand (at top 10 level of course). His slice is good, but a slice will not make a passing shot against against a very athletic opponent, who closes the net well.  So a solid volley behind the approach to the backhand will win Monfils plenty of points. I think Monfils peppers his backhand all day, and the tactic wins him the match.  

I have a small bet going (can't keep my discipline when there is nothing happening), on a treble, with 1 leg in. Hopefully the other two can get over the line. My feeling is that Nadal has an incredible opportunity here to possibly win the Aussie and the French open. I think a fully fit Nadal, has too much experience and guile for Shapavalov. 

Kepi got over the line after blowing 4 match points, but holy cow, how bad is that Sabalenka serve. If you slo-mo the serve There is a weird wrist role just before she reaches up to hit the ball (maybe as a junior she served with a heavy racquet, it's very strange). You can't unteach it and under pressure a player will revert back to it.  After breaking back to 4-4 in the 3rd set, she served 3 doubles in the 9th game.

Shapovalov, Denis vs Nadal, Rafael
2-Way Odds (12) - 21.36
Kanepi, Kaia vs Sabalenka, Aryna
2-Way Odds (12) - 1WON2.63
Monfils, Gael vs Berrettini, Matteo
2-Way Odds (12) - 12.32
Stake
Max. Payout
100.00
829.82
Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, lelit said:

I was a witness to a match where a local hero who manages the courts, after losing the match, grabbed the opponent's racket and destroyed it :)
There was no one to punish him somehow :)

My dad was a coach so I started playing very early. I've seen parents get into proper fights (with name calling, fists thrown, hair pulling, swearing over line calls). Guys throwing racquets into trees, people headbutting net poles, trying to kill each other with the ball. Mixed doubles leagues with girls/woman playing in 100% see-through clothing 😆 . Anything to throw you off your game. Had an opponent throw a racquet under the net. Hit my partner in the ankle. 

 I have a mate who was a cage fighter. He is a big boy (looks like a NZ rugby front rower), strong. He once had a set to with 7 'spectators' from another club, who threatened and insulted some of our members. Behind the club house - didn't take long. They all 💩 themselves and ran away😁. Great game, this tennis is!

Edited by neilovan
polls to poles (hmmm nice speling)
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1 hour ago, Torque said:

I'm entirely capable of defining the word 'acceptable'. The only reason McEnroe came to be 'loved' as you put it is because he became a parody. People began to find his behaviour funny and didn't take it seriously and he began to play up to that, but that certainly wasn't the prevailing attitude when he was first doing it and people found it offensive. As for 'jumping in' with my opinion, that's entirely my prerogative just as it was yours to give your opinion. We clearly differ in our thoughts about what constitutes acceptable behaviour and that's fine. But the idea you get to say what you think without anybody else responding with a contrary opinion isn't what this forum is about.

From my perspective, just because something is prevalent doesn't make it acceptable which is what you seem to be suggesting. There are lots of examples of things in society that go on all the time but which nobody would call acceptable. Comparing smashing a racket with removing a football shirt after scoring a goal isn't a fair comparison either. When that happens it's celebrating something positive. I don't think you can say the same about smashing a racket.

I think McEnroe was also loved because he was so unbelievably good. Definitely flawed genius, which can't really be applied to Zverev.

I remember the 1984 US open display where he demolished Ivan Lendl, with a volleying display that was surreal.

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4 hours ago, liquidglass said:

I think you are overreacting with the Zverev racket smashing episode. Racket smashing is a very acceptable part of the game depicting a release of bad energy which fans love. It is just another game assessory like groaning, a loud short scream at the end of a brutally fought out point or even smashing a ball out of the stadium in annoyance. Players react differently. Then again, we have never even seen Nadal express any outward emotion of any sort. He just gets on with the game in his own way.

Interestingly, in an interview, Toni Nadal spoke about the reason his nephew has never smashed a racquet. ... “Nadal has never broken a racquet. It would be showing a lack of respect to people who actually have to buy the equipment to play the sport,” said Toni.04 Aug 2021

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Having introduced tennis to his nephew at an early age, Toni warned Rafael never to break a racquet, since it would be a huge disrespect to the millions of kids who cannot afford one.

“You throw one racket and I’m no longer your coach. There are millions of kids in the world who would love a racket and don’t have one,” said Toni, to his six-year-old nephew.

According to Toni, it was this lesson that stayed on with his nephew, because of which he has never thrown a racquet despite spending three decades on the court.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.essentiallysports.com/would-be-showing-a-lack-of-respect-how-uncle-toni-stopped-rafael-nadal-from-smashing-racquet-atp-tennis-news/amp/

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2 hours ago, neilovan said:

Interestingly, in an interview, Toni Nadal spoke about the reason his nephew has never smashed a racquet. ... “Nadal has never broken a racquet. It would be showing a lack of respect to people who actually have to buy the equipment to play the sport,” said Toni.04 Aug 2021

I'm sure there's been times in his career where he's felt like doing it, but he chooses to exercise self-control - which any player could do if they really wanted to. It's a lazy excuse when you hear players say that they can't help it, or that it's just part of the game. Saying it's fine isn't right either and just sends a message to youngsters taking up the game that they can do the same. In some cases, with players who say that smashing a racket up helps them to play better, it's practically encouraging young players to do it. 

In the interests of drawing a line under the subject and not clogging the thread up, I don't like it. I don't think it's acceptable and I don't think it's necessary. There's now been arguments for it and also against it so all that's left now is for people to make their own minds up about which side of the fence they sit on.

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4 hours ago, Torque said:

I'm entirely capable of defining the word 'acceptable'. The only reason McEnroe came to be 'loved' as you put it is because he became a parody. People began to find his behaviour funny and didn't take it seriously and he began to play up to that, but that certainly wasn't the prevailing attitude when he was first doing it and people found it offensive. As for 'jumping in' with my opinion, that's entirely my prerogative just as it was yours to give your opinion. We clearly differ in our thoughts about what constitutes acceptable behaviour and that's fine. But the idea you get to say what you think without anybody else responding with a contrary opinion isn't what this forum is about.

From my perspective, just because something is prevalent doesn't make it acceptable which is what you seem to be suggesting. There are lots of examples of things in society that go on all the time but which nobody would call acceptable. Comparing smashing a racket with removing a football shirt after scoring a goal isn't a fair comparison either. When that happens it's celebrating something positive. I don't think you can say the same about smashing a racket.

Firstly, I need to remind you that we live in an evolving world where some things that were not accepted many years ago are accepted today. Perhaps the grey area here lies with trying to find an appropriate definition for the word "acceptable" which I feel certain that you have misunderstood.

I believe the word "acceptable" is used in today's society interchangeably depending on the point you are trying to make.  In the example being discussed smashing your racket can earn you a penalty by law but the act itself is not deemed as offensive as you try to make it sound. Nobody makes the news headlines for smashing their rackets and in most cases the incident is quickly forgotten by everyone. Many years ago boobs hanging out was offensive and degrading to women, now it is mostly out there with pride hanging freely for appreciation. Even so there are people who will still term it as offensive. So we clearly see that the word acceptable is relative. My reason for responding to the original post was that I felt that the point of Zverev smashing his racket was not worthy of being mentioned as it was a normal everyday occurence. I do not know where you have got the idea that I love to say things that I do not want anyone to challenge. Wrong! I am always up for a good debate so long as the challenger can defend whatever they are putting forward. I think your attempt to correct the notion of a player taking off their shirt as different from a person smashing their racket constituted a faux pas reverting to your original comment. You said......(your words) that it was obvious that smashing of the racket was unacceptable which was why it earned the player a caution from the referee, yet in a sudden turnaround you say that the player taking off their jersey is different because it is done in celebration, forgetting that it is still an offence punishable by law. So what is your point? What really is the acid test for determining acceptability? And if you ever come to reason and see it for what it actually is, you would realise that "acceptable" is a word coated in ambiguity and only as relevant as subject being discussed.

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1 hour ago, Torque said:

In the interests of drawing a line under the subject and not clogging the thread up, I don't like it. I don't think it's acceptable and I don't think it's necessary. There's now been arguments for it and also against it so all that's left now is for people to make their own minds up about which side of the fence they sit on.

No, I disagree. I'm hoping someone comes back with a pointless, pompous and over-verbose response because they can't bear not to have the last word. Oh, wait a minute... :eyes

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15 minutes ago, liquidglass said:

"acceptable" is a word coated in ambiguity and only as relevant as subject being discussed.

I certainly agree with that. And of course you're right to say things change over time. Perhaps that's a good place to finish, otherwise I imagine this could go on and on.

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Looking at the woman's matches tomorrow, I would like nothing better than to have a clear fav, at a good price to make money on. But can you really pick a winner with any confidence between Krejcikova and Keys? Both are unbelievable players. The match at the Sydney International between Badosa and Krejcikova was very very high quality, with Badosa winning. Then Keys comes along and crushes Badosa 3 and 1. I think you definitely know more about what you'll get from Krejcikova. Keys could be absolute dynamite again tomorrow.  My feeling is that Krejcikova has a game that works exceptionally well against opponents ranked 40 to 140. She does not lose to these players. But when that game comes up against top 15 players, it doesn't translate into wins.  I would be going for Keys here. If she is focused and in the zone her game is more than good enough to win.

 

I have a hard time now backing Pegula. Cost me two bets this year ... one each in each of the Aussie warm up events (Begu and Garcia beat her). I also remember some tournament last year (I think a US open warm up), where she played Karoline Pliskova and managed to lose two sets from 5-1 up and 4-0 up. Was insane, she just had an absolute meltdown. But this is a player that can blow very hot or ice cold as well. Barty beat her at the French, and Pegula also lost a weird match to Jabeur (very similar style to Barty). I don't think she can win here, but I think she covers the +5.5 games handicap.

Had a close first round match, but a really solid win over Sakkari shows that she is capable.

Would be so interesting to be able to see this version of Barty playing Serena (from 8 years back). Would Serena hit through her and overpower her? I think Pegula is well capable of it.

Playing with no real stress, because she definitely doesn't need the money. Daddyo is a billionaire.

Edited by neilovan
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I personally don't rate Keys as a top 15 players. Sure, she can be there every once in a while, but she can be all over the place as well. Obviously, I'm not saying Keys doesn't have much of a chance, she clearly does, but I prefer to back the reliable player there, especially since Keys seems overvalued on the back of that win that was more down to Badosa not playing decent tennis at all. Incidentally, Kanepi now ensured that I'm winning my bet on Krejcikova to go further than Sabalenka, while she also probably ensured the bet on Swiatek to win her quarter....she just has to lose against her for that to come in!

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27 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I personally don't rate Keys as a top 15 players. Sure, she can be there every once in a while, but she can be all over the place as well. Obviously, I'm not saying Keys doesn't have much of a chance, she clearly does, but I prefer to back the reliable player there, especially since Keys seems overvalued on the back of that win that was more down to Badosa not playing decent tennis at all. Incidentally, Kanepi now ensured that I'm winning my bet on Krejcikova to go further than Sabalenka, while she also probably ensured the bet on Swiatek to win her quarter....she just has to lose against her for that to come in!

SHe was in a US open final, but never kicked on somehow.

I never saw the Badosa match, but was quite shocked at the result. For me the biggest disappointment in this whole woman's draw was Tauson losing. Looked like the heat just zapped her. Couldn't move. Needs to put in the gym and road work, and take her fitness up a level or two. And for a professional athlete it is easy, as you are 100% in control. How much do you want it? Both Tauson and Kostyk are 19, but Kostyk is physically miles ahead of her.

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Ahead of the quarter-finals I'm adding a couple of outright bets and also one match bet. In the outrights, I'm adding to my position on Swiatek who really should be beating Kanepi and advancing to the last four. I also want to cover my position on Medvedev with a bet on Nadal and I'll also be backing Nadal in his match against Shapovalov. Across five sets I think Nadal's greater consistency will see him over the line. Shapovalov will have his moments no question and he's beaten Nadal previously, but I think there's been an overreaction to his win over Zverev. As well as Shapovalov played, Zverev was well below the level expected and also seemed to give up a little once it was obvious the match was getting away from him. There'll be nothing like that from Nadal, who'll keep going at maximum intensity until the last point is played.

 

100pts Nadal to beat Shapovalov @ 1.44 365

35pts Nadal to win ATP Australian Open @ 4.23 Betfair Exchange

10pts Swiatek to win WTA Australian Open @ 5.12 Betfair Exchange

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Keys vs Krejcikova Keys and Krejcikova were both fortunate to walk through injured opponents in the last round. As they say, a win is a win and it matters not how that win was achieved. Since there is no obvious head to head to follow, I have been trying to retrace looking back for clues that might lead me in the right direction. My thinking here is that whoever has the consistent weight of shot-making playing first strike tennis wins. I have a good feeling that this will end in straight sets once I can find the right horse to be on. I believe that Madison's problem over the years has been shot selection and consistency with her accuracy. I think she has gotten this far for a reason and will go on to prove it. She should have the heavier and more penetrating shots which should carry her through in the end. Verdict: Madison keys to win

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