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Australian Open 2022


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Radu Albot vs Vukic Radu is in good form beginning the year winning all his qualifiers inclusing a comprehensive first round win against Nishioka. Remember he beat Bautista Agut here last year and clearly loves the green courts here in melbourne. Vukic though in form as well will have to get ready for the biggest match of his life including the pressure from being the favorite amidst a lot of media attention. Albot looks overpriced here and I am picking him here for the upset.

Kecmanovic vs Paul Both are in good form. Kecmanovic is 2-0 on the head to head albeit one being an exhibition. I believe he is ready to continue with the promise that first took him on the tennis scene. Kecmanovic to win at least 2 sets @11/10 Bet 365

Brengle Vs Osaka There is a reason why this match has been saved for prime time morning. Find out yourself. Brengle +5.5 handicap bet 365

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Nick Kyrgios (+2.5 sets) to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.98 with Unibet

Looks like a huge price to me honestly. It's just a set we need here and Kyrgios looked in good shape against Broady given he was off for such a long time. His serve is devastating against everyone and Medvedev sometimes responds poorly to adversity, which is what he'll get plenty of from Nick. I'd have this at 1.57.

 

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Am i the only one who notices that the surface is much slower than the previous two years? Plus,it's not that hot in Malbourne..i think that in these conditions big servers like Medvedev and Zverev won't have that kind of advantage like they did in New York for example.. Nice opportunity for Nadal..

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Alex Molcan to beat Pablo Andujar @1.67 (local bookie)

I just think that Molcan is in better moment and perhaps the conditions should suit his game more than Andujar's.

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A couple of strange matches in the last few days. Sabalenka was just so completely out of control against a very average opponent. You just cannot play your best tennis in a state of emotional turmoil. Huge red flag to be avoided, and she will prob lose to the first top 50 player she faces.

I didn't like Auger Alliasime at all. Don't know what he is trying to do, but at this level, on these courts you can't blast an opponent away. His game plan and strategy looks non existent. Again red flag for me.

To see Swiatek battle so much with a much weaker opponent was also just strange. Eventually she came back and dominated, but you don't want to be giving anyone a 4-1 start ... especially one that can play. Amber flag for me.

Radacanu won against Stephens, but seriously, that was just hideous tennis. Stephens with 4 points in 1st set, and 45 unforced errors in 21  games is really really poor. Amazing the she could win a major. In the second set Stephens was 3-2 and she had made 16 errors at that point. Shows you how bad Radacanu was playing. Radacanu will get better, but as mentioned in a previous post, she can't hit through opponents (like the USA open) on a slightly slower court.  For me an amber/Red flag.

Not sure where Francis Tiafoe is at the moment, but he is drifting in matches and making life hard for himself. Blew the 4th set in his previous match and won the 5th, but it is not ideal prep. He also lost both his warm up matches. Red flag for me.

If you gave me a free 50 pound bet, the last guy I would put the money on is Tsitsipas. He just looks all outta shape to me, and will run into a demolition job soon. Def red flag for me.

Real pity to see Tauson to land up against Konteveit in the 2nd round. A lot worse players will make it into the next round. Gotta get seeded to avoid this stuff. For me that is gonna be a close match. 

 

OK, enough of the RED flags. Lets look at the good stuff.

 

Muguruza is like a much better version of Sabalenka. For me she has it. Tall, athletic, good serve, power. No contest against Cornet tomorrow, who prob gets overpowered.

Daria Kasitkina been play well here, and in the warm up tournaments. I think she blitzes Linette quite comfortably.

E Rybakina playing well. Her game is set up behind a very good, repetitive serve. WHen it is working (more often than not by a large way), she dominates and wins easily.

Dan Evans getting the job done and cruising along. I think he has way too much for Rinderknech in a comfortable victory.

Monfils looks to be in spectacular form. Hell of an athlete, with incredible skills. A danger man for the whole thing. Khachavov also really solid, with a terrific, ruthless performance. Beating people quickly at this stage is a huge plus! 

Today went 6 for 6 in my low odds predictions. 

1/19/2022 Carreno-Busta v T Griekspoor Carreno-Busta 0.34
1/19/2022 C Alcaraz v D Lajovic C Alcaraz 0.12
1/19/2022 K Khachanov v B Bonzi K Khachanov 0.2
1/19/2022 E Svitolina v H Tan E Svitolina 0.14
1/19/2022 P Badosa v M Trevisan P Badosa 0.12
1/19/2022 V Kudermetova v G Ruse V Kudermetova 0.36

 

and I am pretty confident in what my Machine learning and Tableau filtering systems spat out for tomorrow;

1/20/2022   Schwartzman v C O Connell Schwartzman 0.21
1/20/2022   M Cilic v N Gombos M Cilic 0.11
1/20/2022   de Minaur v K Makchrzak de Minaur 0.22
1/20/2022   van de Zandschulp v R Gasquet van de Zandschulp 0.3
1/20/2022   G Muguruza v A Cornet G Muguruza 0.21
1/20/2022   S Halep v B Haddad Maia S Halep 0.13

 

I will stake big  on  Muguruza, Schwartzman, Cilic  (6.4 to 10) in the early bird kick off and wake up hopefully to an addition to the bank roll. I want solid performers, and am not looking for 2 to 1 long shots.

Then hopefully can repeat the medicine in the mid morning with de Minaur, Botic and Halep (8 to 10). Two nice wins will be a stress free excellent day.

Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

To see Swiatek battle so much with a much weaker opponent was also just strange. Eventually she came back and dominated, but you don't want to be giving anyone a 4-1 start ... especially one that can play. Amber flag for me.

Do not fall into self-resonance, Swiatek won 6: 3, 6: 0 :)

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53 minutes ago, lelit said:

Do not fall into self-resonance, Swiatek won 6: 3, 6: 0 :)

So I got the numbers wrong, against a pretty poor opponent. Shoot me.  

Swiatek, Kenin, Radacanu, Stephens all fall into a weak Champions category. Someone like Seles would have demolished all of them back.

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Someone like Hingis used to demolish Seles :)

 Today's players are more athletic, faster, and they hit harder. The balls, the ground and the rackets are different. It makes no sense to compare.

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23 minutes ago, lelit said:

Someone like Hingis used to demolish Seles :)

 Today's players are more athletic, faster, and they hit harder. The balls, the ground and the rackets are different. It makes no sense to compare.

Oh please , Monica Seles won 7 major titles before she was 20.  She would have eaten this current crop for breakfast and Po___d 💩them out by lunch. Seles got stabbed in 1993,  First time she played hingis was 1996. In 1991 and 1992 she was in the final of 7 of the 8 tournaments played.

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23 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Oh please , Monica Seles won 7 major titles before she was 20.  She would have eaten this current crop for and Po___d 💩them out by . Seles got stabbed in 1993,  First time she played hingis was 1996. In 1991 and 1992 she was in of 7 of the 8 tournaments played.

Almost forgot about that horrible incident that happened with poor seles..exactly 2 years before my birth. Completely agree with the rest of your comment also, I can't diferentiate between almost all of wta players they re kind of the same.

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Viktoria Azarenka (-3.5) to beat Elina Svitolina at 1.76 with Unibet

Saw Svitolina yesterday, thoroughly awful. I'm not even sure what happened to her, but she used to be dispatching players like Tan easily. Then, she won mainly because Tan lost the track physically. She always struggled against players of Azarenka's big hitting and this could be over easily if Azarenka gets going.

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Just now, CzechPunter said:

Viktoria Azarenka (-3.5) to beat Elina Svitolina at 1.76 with Unibet

Saw Svitolina yesterday, thoroughly awful. I'm not even sure what happened to her, but she used to be dispatching players like Tan easily. Then, she won mainly because Tan lost the track physically. She always struggled against players of Azarenka's big hitting and this could be over easily if Azarenka gets going.

Should come in, unless Vika drops her level or has a physical problem. Svitolina has been dire so far this season.

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As the tournament moves towards the end of the first week into the corridors of the knockout phase, expect matches to get more complex and open. I have seen a few too many players snatch victory from the jaws of defeat this week. Korda yesterday, what a narrow escape! Then there was that breathtakingly wonderful match with Shapovalov which I very much enjoyed. Cristian! what a player for the future. Her matchplay body language tells you of an unfinished story still in the making. I was also surprised how the two error machines Giorgi and Keys had so transformed their games in a short space. Keys is certainly dangerous and has a realistic chance. Her game is robust enough to bring the very elite of the game to their knees. She was a promise to the game that was meant to have happened many years ago. A late delivery is not out of the question.

Kasatkina vs linette No doubt Kasatkina is in the form of her life and she has started the year very well. I think she excels well on this surface aided by her very positive attitude on court and her sneaky ability to manipulate the trajectory of the ball constantly giving her opponents different looks. She is the kind of player that once you know her game, you know her game. She the becomes limited in that kind of matchup. I think Linette knows her game and knows it well. H2H is 2-1 Linette and they have all been recent matches. Kasatina has started this year playing many matches. I do not know how that will turn out in terms of how she will adapt physically. I just think Linette's beating of Sevastova in the first round is signal enough. I really want to pick Linette to win here. Verdict: Linette to win with 5.5 handicap @ paddy power

Kontaveit vs Tauson Kontaveit, resilient, tough, feisty and persistent and can be very hard to play. However I think this will be one of the matches of the tournament. I just have a feeling that Tauson will be up to the task in the groundstrokes dept and put Kontaveit under pressure. I strongly smell an upset here but I will put my tail between my legs and opt for +5.5 Tauson Paddy power.

Molcan vs Anjudar Molcan is the younger player here and the one more likely to go through to the next round. I think his preparation has been spot on and Icannot see a different result. good luck all!

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No luck last night as Trevisan was blown away. Still, when you're betting at those odds you're going to lose the vast majority of the time and it only takes the occasional winner to get ahead. Moving on to today, I want to add to my position on Barty in the outright market. Granted she's yet to be tested, but the manner of her wins against inferior opposition suggests that her game is in a good place and that this might be the year she wins her home Slam.

I'm going to back two underdogs in the match markets, and that's Daniel and Wang. Daniel is no slouch on hard and has beaten Djokovic on the surface and even though it was when Djokovic was at a low ebb it's still a good result. He's also taken a set from Nadal at the US Open and right now he looks like he's playing some of the best tennis of his career. Murray slogged it out with Basilashvili in the last round and that can't have done him any good so it'll be interesting to see how he performs from a physical perspective today.

Wang faces off against Sabalenka and as much as I'm happy to support Wang after her good win against Li, mainly I'm wanting to go against Sabalenka. Until she sorts her serve out she's unbackable and vulnerable to losing against almost any player, let alone a promising young player like Wang with plenty of potential. Finally I'll try another acca and this one contains six favourites who I think should get the job done and take their places in the next round.

 

5pts Barty to win WTA Australian Open @ 3.74 Betfair Exchange

15pts Daniel to beat Murray @ 4.33 Boylesports

10pts Wang to beat Sabalenka @ 4.33 365

10pts Fritz (vs. Tiafoe) x Tsitsipas (vs. Baez) x Bautista Agut (vs. Kohlschreiber) x Auger-Aliassime (vs. Davidovich Fokina) x Dimitrov (vs. Paire) x Mertens (vs. Begu) @ 3.75 365

 

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10 hours ago, neilovan said:

A couple of strange matches in the last few days. Sabalenka was just so completely out of control against a very average opponent. You just cannot play your best tennis in a state of emotional turmoil. Huge red flag to be avoided, and she will prob lose to the first top 50 player she faces.

I didn't like Auger Alliasime at all. Don't know what he is trying to do, but at this level, on these courts you can't blast an opponent away. His game plan and strategy looks non existent. Again red flag for me.

To see Swiatek battle so much with a much weaker opponent was also just strange. Eventually she came back and dominated, but you don't want to be giving anyone a 4-1 start ... especially one that can play. Amber flag for me.

Radacanu won against Stephens, but seriously, that was just hideous tennis. Stephens with 4 points in 1st set, and 45 unforced errors in 21  games is really really poor. Amazing the she could win a major. In the second set Stephens was 3-2 and she had made 16 errors at that point. Shows you how bad Radacanu was playing. Radacanu will get better, but as mentioned in a previous post, she can't hit through opponents (like the USA open) on a slightly slower court.  For me an amber/Red flag.

Not sure where Francis Tiafoe is at the moment, but he is drifting in matches and making life hard for himself. Blew the 4th set in his previous match and won the 5th, but it is not ideal prep. He also lost both his warm up matches. Red flag for me.

If you gave me a free 50 pound bet, the last guy I would put the money on is Tsitsipas. He just looks all outta shape to me, and will run into a demolition job soon. Def red flag for me.

Real pity to see Tauson to land up against Konteveit in the 2nd round. A lot worse players will make it into the next round. Gotta get seeded to avoid this stuff. For me that is gonna be a close match. 

 

OK, enough of the RED flags. Lets look at the good stuff.

 

Muguruza is like a much better version of Sabalenka. For me she has it. Tall, athletic, good serve, power. No contest against Cornet tomorrow, who prob gets overpowered.

Daria Kasitkina been play well here, and in the warm up tournaments. I think she blitzes Linette quite comfortably.

E Rybakina playing well. Her game is set up behind a very good, repetitive serve. WHen it is working (more often than not by a large way), she dominates and wins easily.

Dan Evans getting the job done and cruising along. I think he has way too much for Rinderknech in a comfortable victory.

Monfils looks to be in spectacular form. Hell of an athlete, with incredible skills. A danger man for the whole thing. Khachavov also really solid, with a terrific, ruthless performance. Beating people quickly at this stage is a huge plus! 

Today went 6 for 6 in my low odds predictions. 

1/19/2022 Carreno-Busta v T Griekspoor Carreno-Busta 0.34
1/19/2022 C Alcaraz v D Lajovic C Alcaraz 0.12
1/19/2022 K Khachanov v B Bonzi K Khachanov 0.2
1/19/2022 E Svitolina v H Tan E Svitolina 0.14
1/19/2022 P Badosa v M Trevisan P Badosa 0.12
1/19/2022 V Kudermetova v G Ruse V Kudermetova 0.36

 

and I am pretty confident in what my Machine learning and Tableau filtering systems spat out for tomorrow;

1/20/2022   Schwartzman v C O Connell Schwartzman 0.21
1/20/2022   M Cilic v N Gombos M Cilic 0.11
1/20/2022   de Minaur v K Makchrzak de Minaur 0.22
1/20/2022   van de Zandschulp v R Gasquet van de Zandschulp 0.3
1/20/2022   G Muguruza v A Cornet G Muguruza 0.21
1/20/2022   S Halep v B Haddad Maia S Halep 0.13

 

I will stake big  on  Muguruza, Schwartzman, Cilic  (6.4 to 10) in the early bird kick off and wake up hopefully to an addition to the bank roll. I want solid performers, and am not looking for 2 to 1 long shots.

Then hopefully can repeat the medicine in the mid morning with de Minaur, Botic and Halep (8 to 10). Two nice wins will be a stress free excellent day.

What on earth is going on with Muguruza ?

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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

What an excellent start to the day

Cornet beating Muguruza and Schwartzman losing to O' Connell. Only good thing is I got them both in the same bet. 

hahaha, what a suprise huh? with you rude answer when I just told my opinion on your strategy, what will you say now? you´re gonna have a lot of stress days with your betting ;) writing 100 posts with your ´´analysis´´ of odds 1.15 doesn´t help anyone. And I think it´s also not point of this forum, when you´ll write some VALUE bets and reasons for it, then you will have my respect. If betting was clicking on the favorites, everyone would be rich.. think about that

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7 minutes ago, mark22 said:

hahaha, what a suprise huh? with you rude answer when I just told my opinion on your strategy, what will you say now? you´re gonna have a lot of stress days with your betting ;) writing 100 posts with your ´´analysis´´ of odds 1.15 doesn´t help anyone. And I think it´s also not point of this forum, when you´ll write some VALUE bets and reasons for it, then you will have my respect. If betting was clicking on the favorites, everyone would be rich.. think about that

Lol, what have you contributed here exactly? I'm sure you are a big winner. Looks like I'll prob be fine on my second bet. DO you have anything positive to add to the forum? 

Even with a loss today I am still 10 for my last 12 bets. So squarish or a little up.

 

Crawl back into your hole... 

Edited by neilovan
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14 minutes ago, mark22 said:

hahaha, what a suprise huh? with you rude answer when I just told my opinion on your strategy, what will you say now? you´re gonna have a lot of stress days with your betting ;) writing 100 posts with your ´´analysis´´ of odds 1.15 doesn´t help anyone. And I think it´s also not point of this forum, when you´ll write some VALUE bets and reasons for it, then you will have my respect. If betting was clicking on the favorites, everyone would be rich.. think about that

Shows you what you know, if If betting was "clicking on the favorites" as you describe, you would lose about 6.5% a year. 

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