Australian Open 2022

[neilovan]

So it looks like Djokovic is not playing. Was is really such a big deal to get two vaccinations?  

Everyone else must be licking their chops, fancying their chances 

[four-leaf]

27 minutes ago, neilovan said:

So it looks like Djokovic is not playing. Was is really such a big deal to get two vaccinations?  

Everyone else must be licking their chops, fancying their chances 

Only I think is fancying their chances to win a final surely should be only Sascha, Rafa and Meddy. Don't think anyone else has what it takes.

 

Edit: 6 dark horses for mens draw would be Carlito, the two canucks, Berrettini, Hurkacz and Sinner.

Edited January 16, 2022 by four-leaf

[neilovan]

20 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Only I think is fancying their chances to win a final surely should be only Sascha, Rafa and Meddy. Don't think anyone else has what it takes.

Three guys that I think can be added are Berittini, Monfils and Murray. Monfils has alway had such athletic ability and raw talent, but been injured most of his career. Can beat anyone. My dark horse is Schwartzman. I just like him. Pugnacious, never quitting, little pit bull.

Medvedev prob gets Kyrigos in 2nd round which could be tough.

 

Woman's I like Badosa, Barty, Konteveit and Muguruza.

I liked Tauson pre tournament but she walks into Konteveit 2nd round. Two outsiders are Cori Gauff and Keys.

Edited January 16, 2022 by neilovan

[DrO]

Novak would never have gone to Australia if he had not been given an exeption to enter the country by the goverment (which he did recieve; hence Judge Kelly's initial ruling). He would have skipped the Australian Open.

It's a lie that Novak had to be vaccinated to enter Australia. He had a clean medical exemption given by two Aussie medical panels. But,there was a political agenda at play here with the elections coming up which couldn't be more obvious. This is not his fault. Hi did not force his way into the country and did not "make his own rules";he was ready to stay home.

[neilovan]

14 minutes ago, DrO said:

Novak would never have gone to Australia if he had not been given an exeption to enter the country by the goverment (which he did recieve; hence Judge Kelly's initial ruling). He would have skipped the Australian Open.

It's a lie that Novak had to be vaccinated to enter Australia. He had a clean medical exemption given by two Aussie medical panels. But,there was a political agenda at play here with the elections coming up which couldn't be more obvious. This is not his fault. Hi did not force his way into the country and did not "make his own rules";he was ready to stay home.

I respect your opinion but I disagree completely. It was entirely his fault. Two injections and he would be playing tomorrow. That he did interviews when he knew he had covid is just unacceptable. He has no regard or respect for other peoples safety.

[Sofi]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Welcome @Sofi, care to give us your reasons for the bets selected?

So what are the good alternatives according to you @liquidglass?

To be perfectly honestly I lost quite a lot on Sat. so this was more of a desperation punt than anything. Each of those individual selections would seem to be the logical choice but stringing together so many "logical choices" never seems to work out.

[DrO]

33 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I respect your opinion but I disagree completely. It was entirely his fault. Two injections and he would be playing tomorrow. That he did interviews when he knew he had covid is just unacceptable. He has no regard or respect for other peoples safety.

The Aussie governemt should have say that two or three shots of vaccines are condition to participate the event/enter the country. Thed didn't. They gave him a valid exeption. And then canceled his visa.

That he did interviews when he knew he had covid is just unacceptable. He has no regard or respect for other peoples safety.
This is something for Serbian,and not Australian,bodies to handle with..this is not the ground to cancel his visa.

[WinningTipster]

Hi guys,

3 Australian Open picks to start the 2022 season:

ATP: MEDVEDEV-8 GAMES OVER LAAKSONEN @ 1.5 pinnacle
Should be an easy win for the no. 1 favourite to win the tournament.

WTA: TAUSON – SHARMA 2:0 SETS @ 1.69 pinnacle
Tauson is a top 10 potential this year already with a great baseline game, both consistent and powerful.

WTA: ANISIMOVA-HARTONO SETS @ 1.4 pinnacle
Anisimova with a title in Melbourne is definetely in good form. Should be an easy win for her.

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, Snooker Loopy said:

I agree with you that the early rounds of a tennis Grand Slam - and also rugby, like you said, although that’s irrelevant to this thread - are some of the biggest mismatches in sport, and a great opportunity to win money.

However, as several people have pointed out to you, the best way to turn that from a money-making opportunity, to a guaranteed loss, is by lumping a ridiculous amount of bets together in an accumulator. A 30-part accumulator is beyond ridiculous. You’d be better buying lottery tickets.

I know. Its just a wild long shot that will fail. But I did say 'ridic' bet. For me the 100 is not that much money. I won't lose sleep over it. If it wins (which is unlikely) it will be a good start to the year. I just look and see 25 of 32 seeds winning their opening matches in each of the woman's and men's draws.

 

Edited January 16, 2022 by neilovan

[liquidglass]

Hello Guys, 

Welcome to the first Grand slam of the year and I am sure you are all as excited as I am that we can all begin to get involved in our one passion again. Let me say this before I get into the games proper that it takes a combination of factors to do well and make profits in the slam because one is always open to one too many temptations that will eventually turn out to be banana skins and cause severe havoc. So I would say that a great deal of care and experience is needed to aid your decision-making process in deciding to take a bet. Knowing what bet to take and what bookmaker to take it with is so very crucial to your success. For the grandslams I always make sure that I have my major betting accounts on standby namely Ladbrokes, Bet365 and Paddypower. The reason is that they all provide me with different betting options to help maximise my tennis knowledge and thus increase productivity. For example only paddy power provides the alternative total games and alternative handicap options. I cannot begin to tell you how instrumental this has been for me over the last 20 or more years. This should give you a rough idea about my age and the wealth of experience that I will be trying to share with you here. I have always done extremely well in the early rounds of slams and I will be expecting this to be no different. I never really go for outright winners most times because I believe that there is more value in the game menu with numerous markets available.

Rune vs Kwon (Alternative handicaps over 35.5 games @8/15 paddy power) Both are young tennis hopefuls who have already met once in Marbella last year on clay playing a tight 3 setter which Kwon won. They both have started they year well and have played 4 matches each to give the indication that they are both in competitive mood. I just cannot see a runaway winner here and have rightly chosen a very attainable mark for them on the alternative handicap market.

Basilashvili vs Murray

Head to Head is 0-2 Murray where both matches have been highly competitive. Their most recent was in Sidney this year where Murray won in three physically exhausting sets. Murray considering the amount of tennis that he played last week and the gauge of what should be left in his natural energy levels career-wise, leaves the door open for a more than likely first round upset. I have always gone by a principle that it is always so very difficult to beat a player that you are basically on the same level with twice in a space of 1-2 weeks. Verdict: Basilashvili to win a set 1/4 @Paddy Power. If you are playing on @bet 365, Basilashvili to win at least 2 sets @5/6.

Arianne Hartorio is a player that I have been monitoring closely. I really like the way that she took out Niemeyer in that final qualifying match and feel that she has got a lot more to offer in the first round if Anisimova's flat hitting style does not catch her out. I think it is worth the caculated risk in the way that I have decided to take this bet. Considering that the markets have also favored her with a slash in her odds of 6/1 t0 11/2, I think that she is a positive bet here. 

Arianne Hartorio vs Amanda Anisimova over 17.5games @ 4/7 (Alternative total Paddy Power)

Stefano Tsitsipas is certainly not in the best of form.....I take that back to say...not in form judging from his dismal form to close the 2021 season out. My guess is that it would be hard to expect much from him in this tournament considering that he is also recovering from surgery and could take a few tournaments more to recover. They have already mey twice with Tsitsipas beating M. Ymer very badly in straight sets. I am willing to forget whatever the reasons for those defeats were considering that Ymer is in very good form and the markets have recently shown the green lights in his favor slashing his price from 6/1 to 9/2 and now 4/1

Tsitsipas vs Mikael Ymer: Mikael Ymer to win a set @ 4/6 Paddypower. I have chosen this option as the best investment option that looks very very likely. I also believe that the outright win is very advisable on a single. Worth a risk in a slam of this nature considering the surprises that we are bound to expect from the covid effect generally.

Finally, I really like the way that Sasnovic has started the year positively recently losing in the melbourne final to Anisimova . I feel she comes into this grand slam fully charged up and at the right level to give her career a considerable uplift. 

Sasnovic vs Anisimova: I expect this to be a tasty competitive hard fought battle from two players on the assendency. Qinwen Zheng is the real deal and has the firepower to be of relevance in the womens game. She has a game that unveils no obvious weaknesses and I am hoping that the difference between the two players will be the amount of court time already spent by Zheng at melbourne and the qualifiers collectively. Verdict: over 20.5 games @4/7 (alternative handicaps paddy power.) Good luck!

 

Edited January 16, 2022 by liquidglass

[mark22]

@neilovan you made this thread completely messed up with tournament not even started, with your @1.10 picks and even football picks? Yeah, those accumulators with favorites maybe passed like 5-10 years ago, but in recent years GS tournaments became very hard to predict as many suprises comes up in 1st rounds. Some players didn´t play for more than one month. Even at 5-10 pairs combo 1 ALWAYS defeats you. Option is only cashout if you are lucky to get most of matches through.

Otherwise I think there is no bigger value in grand slam matches since odds drop very fast on good bets. This 2 weeks of new season went good for me, but I´ll start here very carefully because of the reasons I mentioned. Here are some picks. Harris should be to strong for Vukic, but he is in good form and I expect some close sets. Otte already played in AUS this year, while Tseng didn`t and has not muxh experience in mathes like this. Bagnis and Garin could go in 5 sets here, I think Bagnis could even win the match given the current form and Garin is known as ´´slow starter´´ on GS. Rune and Kwon had tough match on clay last season and I expect nothing different here. Rune had bad luck in facing Moutet twice in a row, Kwon is favourite by odds and form, but I just can´t see 3:0 win for any of them. GL.

Harris, Lloyd To Win + Total Games Over 32.5

Otte, Oscar To Win + Total Sets Under 4.5

 

F.Bagnis vs C.Garin Total Games: Over 36.5

 

H.Rune vs S.Kwon Total Sets: Over 3.5

 

 

[four-leaf]

Carlito had covid in november so he couldn't play dc and it might have an impact on his game here in AO and he's not the most experienced player down under.

[Torque]

Pressed for time with the tournament about to start, so will have to be brief. I'll be backing both favourites in the outrights to begin with - Medvedev and Barty look completely justified as the players to beat. I'll also join in with the acca fun by backing ten players that I think should win their matches - small stakes though, as one is bound to lose. 

As for individual matches, I'm backing Koepfer to beat Taberner. He's not in the best of form, but he's the better player on hard and he's raised his game for Slams in the last couple of years. The fact that it's best of five sets should be to his advantage as well. I'll also side with Fognini over Griekspoor. The mercurial Italian is capable of beating any player when in the mood, and whilst Griekspoor seems to have forgotten how to lose the players he's been beating haven't been of the calibre of Fognini. Also he pulled out of his last match against Nadal so who knows if he's fully fit. Kecmanovic should get the better of Caruso who's a lucky loser and a pretty limited player so I'll be backing him.

On the Women's side there's quite a few I like. I'm going to back both Hartono and Osorio Serrano to cause upsets against Anisimova and Osaka respectively. Anisimova is said to be carrying a thigh injury and although Osaka should be beating Osorio Serrano I think the Colombian has a lot of potential. I'll take Bronzetti to beat Gracheva at plus money - Gracheva didn't win a game in her last match and Bronzetti has the momentum of coming through qualifying. Pegula hasn't won a set in the two matches she's played to start the season which suggests she's not on top of her game, so I'll go against her by backing Kalinina at a nice price. Kuzmova looks a fair favourite against Xiyu Wang. She came through qualies without dropping a set against some decent opposition and Wang hasn't beaten anyone of note for some time. Finally I'm backing Udvardy and Vekic - Udvardy because I think her price is far too big and Vekic because I'd say recency bias due to Riske making the final last week and Vekic not having played yet this season has skewed the prices. Vekic leads the h2h 3-0 on hard courts.

 

80pts Koepfer to beat Taberner @ 1.40 Boylesports

25pts Fognini to beat Griekspoor @ 1.90 365

50pts Kecmanovic to beat Caruso @ 1.44 365

5pts Hartono to beat Anisimova @ 10.00 Boylesports

5pts Osorio Serrano to beat Osaka @ 10.00 Boylesports

40pts Bronzetti to beat Gracheva @ 2.30 365

25pts Kalinina to beat Pegula @ 3.40 365

35pts Kuzmova to beat Wang @ 1.66 365

15pts Udvardy to beat Azarenka @ 14.72 Betfair Exchange

35pts Vekic to beat Riske @ 2.20 365

15pts Medvedev to win ATP Australian Open @ 2.84 Betfair Exchange

25pts Barty to win WTA Australian Open @ 4.33 Betfair Exchange

10pts Khachanov (vs. Kudla) x Berrettini (vs. Nakashima) x Otte (vs. Tseng) x Sonego (vs. Querrey) x Kecmanovic (vs. Caruso) x Zverev (vs. Altmaier) x Kostyuk (vs. Parry) x Alexandrova (vs. Pera) x Van Uytvanck (vs. Bucsa) x Barty (vs. Tsurenko) @ 9.20 365

Edited January 17, 2022 by Torque

[neilovan]

16 hours ago, mark22 said:

@neilovan you made this thread completely messed up with tournament not even started, with your @1.10 picks and even football picks? Yeah, those accumulators with favorites maybe passed like 5-10 years ago, but in recent years GS tournaments became very hard to predict as many suprises comes up in 1st rounds. Some players didn´t play for more than one month. Even at 5-10 pairs combo 1 ALWAYS defeats you. Option is only cashout if you are lucky to get most of matches through.

Otherwise I think there is no bigger value in grand slam matches since odds drop very fast on good bets. This 2 weeks of new season went good for me, but I´ll start here very carefully because of the reasons I mentioned. Here are some picks. Harris should be to strong for Vukic, but he is in good form and I expect some close sets. Otte already played in AUS this year, while Tseng didn`t and has not muxh experience in mathes like this. Bagnis and Garin could go in 5 sets here, I think Bagnis could even win the match given the current form and Garin is known as ´´slow starter´´ on GS. Rune and Kwon had tough match on clay last season and I expect nothing different here. Rune had bad luck in facing Moutet twice in a row, Kwon is favourite by odds and form, but I just can´t see 3:0 win for any of them. GL.

Harris, Lloyd To Win + Total Games Over 32.5

Otte, Oscar To Win + Total Sets Under 4.5

 

F.Bagnis vs C.Garin Total Games: Over 36.5

 

H.Rune vs S.Kwon Total Sets: Over 3.5

 

 

Nice, Your first post ever and you diss me ("@neilovan you made this thread completely messed") up with tournament not even started. I'm actually giving you strategy to win. If you think picks at 2 to 10 are stupid, you have no clue. Forget what sport it is an see the concept that I am using.  I can almost guarantee you that at least 24 seeds will win their 1st round match in both draws. You stay away from the 'bad' seeds and you land up with close to 24 of 28 winners with almost minimal work.

You need to read some articles re 'the favorite-longshot bias'  which is an interesting concept

Link here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favourite-longshot_bias#:~:text=In gambling and economics%2C the,longshots" and relatively undervalue favourites.&text=Betting on the "longshot" is,than betting on the favourite.

 

LOL is mark22 the same as snoopy_loopy or whatever his name was?

Edited January 17, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Well, to each their own!

[neilovan]

18 hours ago, Sofi said:

I have a 15 team parlay with

Sabalenka, Rybakina, Kostyuk, Gauff, Osaka, Jabeur, Paul, Alcaraz, Shapo, Tiafoe, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Anisimova, Azarenka & Swiatek. (pays 6.7) for a substantial amount. $1552/$8852. 

( Wrote all this up before I realized I could just show the tickets but I'll just leave it up there)

 You just know there's gonna be 2 or 3 rotten eggs in that bunch so I'm not exactly getting my hopes up.

 

Sweating Anismova no doubt, but she is serving first in 3rd set and has the momentum. Good luck.

[neilovan]

47 minutes ago, Snooker Loopy said:

It’s not their first post ever. That’s not correct.

You make it sound so simple, and yet if it was that easy, either we’d all be rich, or gambling wouldn’t exist.

You’re right - lots of the seeds will win their first round matches, at short odds-on. However, knowing which ones will lose is the problem. We don’t know. We can speculate and take educated guesses, but then so can the bookies, and the odds reflect that. Trying to pick as large a number of winners as you have - without any losers - is very close to impossible.

The article that you have linked to has no relevance to what is being discussed here. I too love to bet on short-priced favourites. However, lumping silly numbers of them together in an accumulator is a guaranteed way of handing money to the bookies.

The fact that you have put these bets - including football and rugby matches - in the Australian Open thread, rather than the Glory Hunters section of the website is what has caused the problem. I don’t think these accumulators belong here. We can all list loads of short-priced favourites that we think will win, but I don’t see what that achieves in terms of this thread, or in terms of helping each other to make a profit?

Good luck to you have a nice day.  I have actually tried to help you, but either you don't understand or are not interested.

Edited January 17, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Don't mind the guy, he's out now, for the millionth time!

[neilovan]

2 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Don't mind the guy!

No worries mate! Think I'm just steaming because I woke up and saw Gauff lost. 4 and 2. How is that even possible??

Amazing to see Kokkinakis going down the drain as well, especially after winning tour on Saturday.

Edited January 17, 2022 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Fatigue catching up with Kokkinakis I guess, no idea about Gauff, will have to take a look!

[neilovan]

4 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Fatigue catching up with Kokkinakis I guess, no idea about Gauff, will have to take a look!

Always had injury worries, so maybe just a letdown. Interesting to see these players coming to the end of their careers such as Andersen, Fognini, Gasquet, Querry, Millman (nice setup draw tennis Australia), Lopez.

 

Two matches starting now I do like Tommy Paul and Karatsev to both win, combined with Tiechmann (in progress) it is about 8 to 10 .

[DrO]

Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat (-2,5 sets) Stefano Travaglia @1.65 local bookie

Everything but the easy victory for the Spaniard would be a big surprise to me. Travaglia is more clay-court than hard-court player,and his ranking is going down for a while..Agut had a good run at ATP Cup recently, reaching the final with his team..

[Robinnho]

No Vaccine, no French Open for Djokovic, says France's sports ministry.

PARIS (REUTERS) - Novak Djokovic could be barred from playing in the French Open as things stand after France's sports ministry said on Monday (Jan 17) there would be no exemption from its new vaccine pass law.

[Robinnho]

On 1/16/2022 at 1:12 PM, WinningTipster said:

Hi guys,

WTA: TAUSON – SHARMA 2:0 SETS @ 1.69 pinnacle
Tauson is a top 10 potential this year already with a great baseline game, both consistent and powerful.
 

Tauson had right thigh hamstring when she retired from the QF of the Melbourne Summerset 2 on the 7th Jan.  Is she fully recovered now?

[cluelessG]

Alize Cornet - Viktoriya Tomova

Viktoriya Tomova +1.5 sets - 1.952 with Pinnacle

Tomova came through qualifications and Cornet is in unknown shape but past her best.

[bet4fun]

On 1/16/2022 at 4:26 PM, DrO said:

Novak would never have gone to Australia if he had not been given an exeption to enter the country by the goverment (which he did recieve; hence Judge Kelly's initial ruling). He would have skipped the Australian Open.

It's a lie that Novak had to be vaccinated to enter Australia. He had a clean medical exemption given by two Aussie medical panels. But,there was a political agenda at play here with the elections coming up which couldn't be more obvious. This is not his fault. Hi did not force his way into the country and did not "make his own rules";he was ready to stay home.

be rest assured australians have to pay heavy penalty for doing this for years to come. First you give him visa, cancel his visa, isolate him, PM approves his visa, immigration minister rejects. What a jokw. Is this how u treat foeeigners. Novak would be bad image for 5% of the anti vaccinated aussies is the reasom they gave.

[bet4fun]

2 hours ago, Robinnho said:

No Vaccine, no French Open for Djokovic, says France's sports ministry.

PARIS (REUTERS) - Novak Djokovic could be barred from playing in the French Open as things stand after France's sports ministry said on Monday (Jan 17) there would be no exemption from its new vaccine pass law.

I think he will probably retire now. Americans wont allow him either. Another 2000 points from french open gone.

[neilovan]

Having watched most of the ATP cup, and the woman's and men's warm up tournaments, one thing is clear. Travel to Australia is a long journey, and jet-lag and acclimation are playing a big part. Those who have not played a warm up match or two have not that fared well. Normally jet -leg is worse when going West to East, so maybe for players from the USA it is less, but a few weeks of settling in definitely make a big difference here.

So most top players who warmed up at the ATP cup will be ready to go (Bautista Agut, Shapavalov, Creeno-Busta , Auger Alliasime, Medvedev, Zverev etc).

Pegula lost two matches in a row, and could easily have been 0 and 3 today.

Tiafoe lost two matches in a row

Kvitova looks in poor form.

Medvedev lost 1st match, ATP cup.

Lloyd Harris played really badly (I think over 66 unforced errors)

K Andersen lost both his matches in Aus.

Radacanu got demolished.

One guy that has played a lot of matches in Aus that I think is rock solid is Dan Evans. He did well in the ATP cup, (3 singles win and 2 doubles wins) and won 2 matches in Sydney (lost very close to Karatsev in semi). He will be ready, which can't be said about his opponent (Goffin), who comes back after long injury. At Sydney he retired a set down against Murray. Evans only 1.28 for the win, but I think he does it easily. You can't buy 5 set match fitness. Only comes from playing.

My 2nd pick is Casper Ruud over ALex Molcan. Ruud played ATP cup, did pretty well, rested last week. He should be a solid winner here.

My 3rd Pick is Diego Schwartzman. Again, someone who played ATP cup (beat Basilashvilli and Tsitsipas), and rested last week. He plays Filip Krajinovic and should just be too strong in what is a clash of very similar styles.

My last pick in this grouping is Ugo Humbert playing Richard Gasquet. Humbert played ATP (had terrific victory over Medvedev). He plays Richard Gasquet, who's tennis pro days are coming to an end. Gasquet also not played a competitive match in Aus this year, so he's just there to get the 1st round money and go home.

So the 4 legged bet gives odds of 14 to 10 which is fine for me. 

Humbert, Evans, Schwartzman, Ruud

 

Edited January 17, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

30 minutes ago, cluelessG said:

Alize Cornet - Viktoriya Tomova

Viktoriya Tomova +1.5 sets - 1.952 with Pinnacle

Tomova came through qualifications and Cornet is in unknown shape but past her best.

Cornet always seems to find a way over the line in these games.  If you are looking for upsets I think Zvonereva against Mertens is definitely worth a bet. Mertens lost first match in Aus, and Zvonereva is a really solid player. My 2nd upset would be Cirstea to beat Kvitova, who has been shaky, and not near her best. 3rd one is Rebecca Marino to beat Bouzkova. Big serve, first strike tennis.

 

For me to see Radacanu as a favourite over Stephens is a joke. She has just been smashed around, and will really really struggle in the match. I can't see Radacanu winning this one.

 

Edited January 17, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

17 minutes ago, bet4fun said:

I think he will probably retire now. Americans wont allow him either. Another 2000 points from french open gone.

He will go and get vaccinated. A process that opens up all doors.