Australian Open 2022

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, DrO said:

Wow ^
Did the odds on Medvedev dropped? Bookies in Serbia give only 1.65 odd for same pick..is it a value at this price? (1.65)

Last year Medvedev played Tsitsipas in the semi final at the Aussie open. Won comfortably , 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 .   Is Tsitsipas version 2022 much better than Tsitsipas version 2021? I don't think so. Maybe he looks fitter and stronger, but technique wise he looks the same player as last year. 

But I think the current version of Medvedev is definitely superior to the prior versions. Mentally, he is so much tougher, and in control. He used to have those sarcastic gestures to his support/coach staff. You don't see that negative garbage any more.  And that stuff is huge, because it was one of the ways he would beat himself in the past. 

2 things; 

I think Medvedev is also gonna serve miles better in this upcoming match (than he did against Felix).  

Both Tsitsipas and Medvedev like to play quick. The tempo and pace of play was very slow against Felix. It won't happen here, and it will really suite Medvedev.  1.65 puts Medvedev at 60% to win. I think he is closer to 68%, which translate into odds of 1.47  (calc 1/0.68). So a price of 1.75 is great, considering bet365 is 1.4 for Medvedev to win.

I expect a similar result to last year. 

Edited January 27, 2022 by neilovan

[Foo_Fighter]

Well sorry guys but I hope my fellow countryman beats the Russian ?

[neilovan]

In the other semi, I just cannot see Nadal beating Berrettini. This is an older version of Nadal, and that high intensity game, eventually takes it's toll. He's no spring chicken, and the body just gets worn down/out. Also, he is hitting the ball way to short on hard court. It may work on clay, but that ball is sitting up, waiting to be spanked.  

That cannon serve of Berrettini cannot be under-estimated. Free points all day in an economical manner. Nadal beat Shapavalov, but the later threw that match away.  Berrettini all the way here.

[Torque]

1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Last year Medvedev played Tsitsipas in the semi final at the Aussie open. Won comfortably , 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 .   Is Tsitsipas version 2022 much better than Tsitsipas version 2021? I don't think so. Maybe he looks fitter and stronger, but technique wise he looks the same player as last year. 

But I think the current version of Medvedev is definitely superior to the prior versions. Mentally, he is so much tougher, and in control. He used to have those sarcastic gestures to his support/coach staff. You don't see that negative garbage any more.  And that stuff is huge, because it was one of the ways he would beat himself in the past. 

2 things; 

I think Medvedev is also gonna serve miles better in this upcoming match (than he did against Felix).  

Both Tsitsipas and Medvedev like to play quick. The tempo and pace of play was very slow against Felix. It won't happen here, and it will really suite Medvedev.  1.65 puts Medvedev at 60% to win. I think he is closer to 68%, which translate into odds of 1.47  (calc 1/0.68). So a price of 1.75 is great, considering bet365 is 1.4 for Medvedev to win.

I expect a similar result to last year. 

Agree with all of that @neilovan except 'you don't see that negative garbage anymore' - you do see it, most recently against Humbert. Definitely see it less than before though.

[Foo_Fighter]

54 minutes ago, neilovan said:

In the other semi, I just cannot see Nadal beating Berrettini. This is an older version of Nadal, and that high intensity game, eventually takes it's toll. He's no spring chicken, and the body just gets worn down/out. Also, he is hitting the ball way to short on hard court. It may work on clay, but that ball is sitting up, waiting to be spanked.  

That cannon serve of Berrettini cannot be under-estimated. Free points all day in an economical manner. Nadal beat Shapavalov, but the later threw that match away.  Berrettini all the way here.

Agree on this but what about their mobility on the court? Or the retrieving skills? The will, the passion to win etc.? Areas where Nadal is clearly superior I think.

[Torque]

I can see the arguments for Berrettini as well as the arguments for Nadal. I'm leaning towards Nadal, for the reasons outlined by @Foo_Fighter but I definitely agree with @neilovan about Nadal leaving the ball short potentially causing him problems.

[Torque]

5 minutes ago, Torque said:

Agree with all of that @neilovan except 'you don't see that negative garbage anymore' - you do see it, most recently against Humbert. Definitely see it less than before though.

I didn't watch Medvedev against Cressy, but I'd be very surprised if the 'negative garbage' didn't make an appearance on multiple occasions with the way that match went.

[Torque]

On 1/24/2022 at 10:34 PM, Torque said:

Ahead of the quarter-finals I'm adding a couple of outright bets and also one match bet. In the outrights, I'm adding to my position on Swiatek who really should be beating Kanepi and advancing to the last four. I also want to cover my position on Medvedev with a bet on Nadal and I'll also be backing Nadal in his match against Shapovalov. Across five sets I think Nadal's greater consistency will see him over the line. Shapovalov will have his moments no question and he's beaten Nadal previously, but I think there's been an overreaction to his win over Zverev. As well as Shapovalov played, Zverev was well below the level expected and also seemed to give up a little once it was obvious the match was getting away from him. There'll be nothing like that from Nadal, who'll keep going at maximum intensity until the last point is played.

 

100pts Nadal to beat Shapovalov @ 1.44 365

35pts Nadal to win ATP Australian Open @ 4.23 Betfair Exchange

10pts Swiatek to win WTA Australian Open @ 5.12 Betfair Exchange

Nadal got the win and was probably fortunate to do so in the end. When he won the first two sets it looked like it was going to be a routine victory, but after Shapovalov edged the third and then took it to a deciding set it could have gone either way.

[Torque]

The Women's final is set and fortunately I'm green no matter what the outcome. I'll be hoping for a Barty win though as that will net me double the return of a Collins win. I've now closed out my position on the Men's side with two final bets, where a Medvedev or Nadal win sees me in profit but a Tsitsipas or Berrettini win sees me taking a loss.

 

10pts Tsitsipas to win ATP Australian Open @ 6.49 Betfair Exchange

5pts Berrettini to win ATP Australian Open @ 9.82 Betfair Exchange

[neilovan]

8 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Agree on this but what about their mobility on the court? Or the retrieving skills? The will, the passion to win etc.? Areas where Nadal is clearly superior I think.

I got this totally wrong. Nadal is cleaning him up, quite easily. Just pounding his backhand into the ground, and totally in control of the longer points. That hook forehand to the Berrettini backhand is overpowering. 

[CzechPunter]

Medvedev delivering, good to see. Can't see beyond Barty in the women's finals, but Sunday should be interesting!

[neilovan]

Everyone is looking at the woman's championship final and just expecting Barty to walk it. But Collins actually has some pretty decent pedigree.  I was chatting with my brother and a friend of his who runs an academy in the States. I rate the friends opinion, he knows his stuff (his mom also won a Wimbledon doubles title 1955 -- Anne Shilcock) . 

Two kids at the academy with an interview. That was a terrific woman.

He watched that semi and was impressed with a few things. Collins didn't go wild with celebration when she won. She celebrated like she expected to be there, not like it was a modern miracle. It's very subtle, but it shows the players mindset. The second thing he told me that she was NCAA champion not once but twice. That's some going, because it is very very competitive.

I would be looking again at the first couple of games of the match. Can Collins hold serve .... can she apply pressure to Barty's serve? I don't think Collins is gonna beat herself (like Keys did). She looks a tough and fit competitor.  I would be going for the Collins +4.5 handicap here, again small bet.

as a footnote; what is so interesting with Barty is her serve. She has a fantastic serving motion. Very smooth, won't break down under pressure. She is only 5'5 but when she wants to crank a 1st serve, gets off the ground by about 3/4 of a foot. So she serves those like a player that's 6'1. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

7 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Medvedev delivering, good to see. Can't see beyond Barty in the women's finals, but Sunday should be interesting!

Check this out.

https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/the-rally-australian-open-nadal-barty-collins-medvedev-finals

Brilliant line in the article... "the drive by handshake" ???? . Medvedev is actually laughing at him, pretty easy to tell what he thinks of Tsitsipas as well???

Edited January 28, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

1 minute ago, U.K. TennisGirl said:

I can’t believe the odds on offer for the men’s final!

I have had some big wins the past few years, by going against Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Serena Williams, as the bookies don’t seem to realise that they aren’t the dominant forces they once were. (Kerber vs. Williams, Wimbledon 2018; Halep vs. Williams, Wimbledon 2019; Thiem vs. Nadal, Australian Open 2020; Medvedev vs. Djokovic, US Open 2021 - all matches where I’ve gone in big and won big, because the prices on these players did not reflect the current state of affairs in the world of tennis.)

 

We have the same again on Sunday. Around 1/2 - and in some places better - on Medvedev to win the match, is an absolute gift. I’m just deciding how greedy to be in terms of set betting/game handicaps etc, in order to maximise the opportunity for profit. 3-0 Medvedev is tempting, but I’m sure I’ll end up going safer than that, and taking something like -3.5 games or -1.5 sets, or even just to win the match.

(Any opinions on how much to push this one?)

Nadal isn’t close to beating Medvedev on a hard court, over 5 sets, at the moment - and presumably will never be close to him on that surface again, without a time machine.

If you gave me the same odds on Nadal winning Sunday’s best-of-five match against Medvedev, and Collins winning tomorrow’s best-of-three against Barty, then I’d definitely say Collins winning is more likely. And yet, Barty is 1.2 and Medvedev is 1.5?!!

Fill your boots everyone, because the bookies are living in the past once again, with their tennis odds!

100% agree. Also the US open where Nadal won, and Medvedev came roaring back (from 2 sets down) is a pretty big deal. It kind of was the Medvedev emergence, and him getting to the 'I can do/win this'  stage. He absolutely went toe to toe with him and dominated Nadal at his own game (fantastic 2 sets of tennis). 

[Torque]

3 hours ago, U.K. TennisGirl said:

I can’t believe the odds on offer for the men’s final!

I have had some big wins the past few years, by going against Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Serena Williams, as the bookies don’t seem to realise that they aren’t the dominant forces they once were. (Kerber vs. Williams, Wimbledon 2018; Halep vs. Williams, Wimbledon 2019; Thiem vs. Nadal, Australian Open 2020; Medvedev vs. Djokovic, US Open 2021 - all matches where I’ve gone in big and won big, because the prices on these players did not reflect the current state of affairs in the world of tennis.)

 

We have the same again on Sunday. Around 1/2 - and in some places better - on Medvedev to win the match, is an absolute gift. I’m just deciding how greedy to be in terms of set betting/game handicaps etc, in order to maximise the opportunity for profit. 3-0 Medvedev is tempting, but I’m sure I’ll end up going safer than that, and taking something like -3.5 games or -1.5 sets, or even just to win the match.

(Any opinions on how much to push this one?)

Nadal isn’t close to beating Medvedev on a hard court, over 5 sets, at the moment - and presumably will never be close to him on that surface again, without a time machine.

If you gave me the same odds on Nadal winning Sunday’s best-of-five match against Medvedev, and Collins winning tomorrow’s best-of-three against Barty, then I’d definitely say Collins winning is more likely. And yet, Barty is 1.2 and Medvedev is 1.5?!!

Fill your boots everyone, because the bookies are living in the past once again, with their tennis odds!

In regards to 'how much to push this one' which I'm presuming means how much to bet on Medvedev in whatever market, I'd advise that you don't go higher than an amount you're prepared to lose. Boring advice I know, but shocks happen all the time in tennis as I'm sure you know. Notwithstanding the possibility of Nadal playing lights out and Medvedev dropping his level, an injury could always scupper your bet - unless you bet with a book that voids retirements. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

[Foo_Fighter]

Noticed how things played out and women's final is an International final (an Australian vs an American girl) whereas men's singles is a purely European affair. In fact, Swiatek was the only semi-finalist from Europe. Zero American/Argentinean/Canadian/Japanese/South African guys reached the semifinals (we had a Spanish, a Greek, an Italian and a Russian) lol. 

Edited January 29, 2022 by Foo_Fighter

[Hermes]

It's kind of incredible how Berrettini got this far without a solid backhand. Nadal absolutely smashed him and made him pay dearly. The difference between BIG 3 and the rest is just that there way more cerebral about the game than the rest. The reason why Medvedev might accomplish more than Tsitsipas in his career is purely mental. I'd say Tsitsipas is more naturally talented but Medvedev is just smarter and more hard working to improve his game. Coming back from the Felix game shows how composed Medvedev is, he had no right coming back but he was unfazed.

It was a good slam for anyone who was patient with their picks, I'd say the tournament is more 50/50 than the bookies make it to be. Nadal has an extra gear which he hasn't had to pull most of the tournament. Medvedev has faced some long matches though recovery isn't a problem for him. I have no clear favorite for the final.

See you in May for the next slam.✌️

[neilovan]

5 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Noticed how things played out and women's final is an International final (an Australian vs an American girl) whereas men's singles is a purely European affair. In fact, Swiatek was the only semi-finalist from Europe. Zero American/Argentinean/Canadian/Japanese/South African guys reached the semifinals (we had a Spanish, a Greek, an Italian and a Russian) lol. 

Zero South African's reached the 2nd round. Harris played like a space cadet, and Anderson is done. Aussies have nobody (mens) and the USA is also nowhere.

Edited January 29, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

2 hours ago, U.K. TennisGirl said:

With all due respect, I don’t think your ‘friend-of-a-friend’ story has much relevance here. 

As with any women’s final - or women’s match, really - anything could happen, particularly with what’s on the line for Ashleigh Barty. However, she is the dominant number one in the women’s game, and could easily blow Danielle Collins away here, without losing many games at all.

Barty has only dropped serve once in around 80 service games or so, dating back to previous tournaments as well.

Add to that, the fact that this is Collins’ first Grand Slam final AND she has to deal with all of that without a coach, and come up with her own game plan, without the input and experience of other voices in her corner. On top of that, the crowd will be against her to a staggering, almost unfair degree, and Danielle Collins strikes me as perhaps the type of person who could be frustrated and put off by that.

Danielle Collins is a top player, and could win this, but I don’t see that the 4.5 game head start for Collins is a particularly good bet, as Barty has more than covered that handicap in every single one of her matches. That alone would make me want to be on the Barty side of that 4.5 handicap.

My "friend of a friend"is so derogatory. Why do you do it? You get your kicks from posting negative comments all day? Hardly a friend of a friend. I've known the guy for 30 years. Your comments are always negative to me. Just once, could you switch the narrative?  Did my suggested bet win or lose?

With respect your comment "women’s match, really - anything could happen"  is highly inaccurate.  What a load a of nonsense! I lighten up the thread with a pretty cool clip and you dump  on it again, which you always do.

 

Not gonna continue this dialog but you can have the last word.

Edited January 29, 2022 by neilovan

[DrO]

From my point of view - Nadal stands higher than Medvedev in term of mental strenght. And not just Nadal,but also Djokovic and Federer,both.
And it seems to me that some of you forget that.

It's never easy to beat anyone of Big3.

[neilovan]

 

16 minutes ago, DrO said:

From my point of view - Nadal stands higher than Medvedev in term of mental strenght. And not just Nadal,but also Djokovic and Federer,both.
And it seems to me that some of you forget that.

It's never easy to beat anyone of Big3.

I agree, but there are a couple of things against Nadal.

1) Aussie open not been an incredible hunting ground for Nadal. Just 1 win. Nadal wins the French Open because conditions for his game style are near perfect. The balls, the court, the bounce and probably his bio-rhythms are perfectly in tune.

2) The two handed backhand of Med nullifies the Nadal hook to the backhand corner. A tall player with a solid 2 handed backhand has a much easier time of it.

3) Nadal is getting old, and his body has taken an incredible pounding over the years. His high intensity game is hard to sustain.

4) When Medvedev serves well, he gets a crazy momentum, that is very difficult to stop. He rushes through games, and it builds a lot of pressure.

5) In my opinion, Nadal is hitting the ball way to short. I don't think Med will hit it and come to the net, but you land up chasing the ball all day. It's like playing squash and giving away the 'T'. You fetch the entire match.

I definitely don't think Medvedev wins easily, but he has enough  to get over the line and win the close/important moments in the match.

Edited January 29, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

6 hours ago, Hermes said:

It's kind of incredible how Berrettini got this far without a solid backhand. Nadal absolutely smashed him and made him pay dearly. The difference between BIG 3 and the rest is just that there way more cerebral about the game than the rest. The reason why Medvedev might accomplish more than Tsitsipas in his career is purely mental. I'd say Tsitsipas is more naturally talented but Medvedev is just smarter and more hard working to improve his game. Coming back from the Felix game shows how composed Medvedev is, he had no right coming back but he was unfazed.

It was a good slam for anyone who was patient with their picks, I'd say the tournament is more 50/50 than the bookies make it to be. Nadal has an extra gear which he hasn't had to pull most of the tournament. Medvedev has faced some long matches though recovery isn't a problem for him. I have no clear favorite for the final.

See you in May for the next slam.✌️

I remember watching Tsitsipas playing in the next-gen finals. He was playing J Munar (I think). He got mad at dropping his serve, that he started bashing his racquet with his fist at the change over. He hit the racquet so hard, that he had to have an injury timeout and call the trainer. So easy to injure a wrist tendon, or break your (million dollar) wrist. Really! That behavior is moronic and immature!

His handshake to Med after the match was pathetic. Petulant and lame.  Easy to fight, but real character is shown with reconciliation. If you play and give 100% and leave nothing in the tank, it really doesn't matter if you win or lose. You have given everything|  Nadal understands this totally. And that's why he can win and lose with such grace. Tsitsipas is so far away from this mental state ... and it will probably be his biggest stumbling block to becoming a major champion.

Edited January 29, 2022 by neilovan

[DrO]

Yes,he was demolished by Djokovic,who is also a "super-weight" category. Medvedev isn't.
@U.K. TennisGirl

At ATP Finals 2019 Medvedev was 5-1 up in the decider,and still lost it against Nadal.

[dropvolley]

Medvedev -1.5 games @1.8 (5/10 units)

Rafa is coming back from a foot injury and he is simply not fit enough to play a 3- or 4-hour high quality match. Has he really beaten a high-quality opponent of Medvedev's calibre of late? Nothing recent comes to my mind. Rafa simply has no weapons to trouble the crafty Russian on hard courts. To be honest, in my opinion, Rafa has had a breeze of a draw. He only played opponents whom he can comfortably beat (almost like how Federer thrashes Gasquet). 

The way I see it, Medvedev will crush Rafa. The odds should have been 1.3ish for Medvedev to win. It is a far safer bet than Barty at 1.2 earlier today. 

For the brave punters, picking Medvedev to win in 3 sets is a good but slightly risky proportion. 

Fellow punters, I think Rafa and Roger are frozen in time at 20 slams. Would be some climax should Rafa win and retire tomorrow. But that will need the blessings of the Tennis Gods. I genuinely do feel it is the last chance Rafa has at #21. Good luck punting. 

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome @dropvolley!

[DrO]

@CzechPunteryou're obviosly not going to involve in betting,but what are your thoughts for final?

[CzechPunter]

I'd like to see Nadal win, for the old times' sake, but Medvedev is a reasonable favorite and unless something changes from the form of the two in this event, he'll be taking the trophy home. I'd argue that he's played the match of the tournament between the two against Felix and he has developed a good mentality in recent time, he's not going to crack like Shapovalov or Berretini, or at least it's hard to see him doing that. In that regard, Nadal looked shaky against both. Berretini basically checked out mentally at the start of the match, YET managed to stage a near-comeback and could've taken it to the decider, which is worrying for Nadal's chances to say the least. He's not as clinical as before and the aura of dominance is gone.

[harry_rag]

The RP tips are 6/4 Medvedev wins & both players win a set and 5/1 Nadal to win 1st set and lose the match. I’ve seen the former boosted to 7/4 and the latter (which seems slightly more random) to 6/1.

For an interest, I’ve had 10 points on the 7/4 shot with Fred.

[Hermes]

My best pick for the match among all the bets placed on the final would be Nadal to win first set.For motivation purposes and from a mentality perspective, many see this game going the distance even the bookies. But Nadal will come out swinging from the fences. He knows Medvedev has better conditioning and his recovery, stamina and age here are a clear deciding factor ; hence why the bookies favour Medvedev, however Nadal would least like this match to go the distance as if it goes to the 5th its 60/40 simply because of age and fatigue. The first set is likely 7-6,7-5 or outright win for Nadal. Otherwise Meddy carries the day.

[delfino]

Oh, the Robot looks tired.....Fourth set now, if Robot loses this one, good bye Robot....