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Racing Chat - Wednesday 8th December ?


Hotspur88
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Going to be gruelling at Hexham, low weights should have an advantage. Gone for a silly £1 e/w acca for 20k +.

Shoughall Boy 12.20

Flaming Glory 12.50

The Dawn Man 13.50

Charm Offensive 14.20

Southeast Rose 14:50

Espoir Morivire 3:20

 

 

Out on 2nd leg :cry

Edited by yossa6133
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2 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

1115 Pau Taqdeer 5/4 5pt win

1310 Wolverhampton Famous Star 8/11 & 1340 Wolverhampton Tio Mio 8/11 To Be Placed double @ 2/1 5pt win

1900 Kempton Bellosa 10/3 4pt win 

14pts staked ??

 

Nice start with one of the easiest wins you will see with Taqdeer barely coming off the bridle. 

11.25pts back from first bet.

 

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I didn't have a particularly successful NH season last year but I now have an extra year's data so I'll have another bash.

Today's selection is from a system that concentrates on non handicaps with the main criteria being that forecast odds are greater than 13/8, the horse is in the top on the racecard and the horse is bred in the UK.

Hexham 2.20

DEL LA MAR ROCKET 3/1

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10 hours ago, yossa6133 said:

Going to be gruelling at Hexham, low weights should have an advantage. Gone for a silly £1 e/w acca for 20k +.

Shoughall Boy 12.20

Flaming Glory 12.50

The Dawn Man 13.50

Charm Offensive 14.20

Southeast Rose 14:50

Espoir Morivire 3:20

 

 

Out on 2nd leg :cry

I'm Sure but not certain.... but the opposite of your assumption is more true, overall the class of a horse becomes more pronounced when its gruelling ground. I'm sure others on here that deal in stats could tell you more.

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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

2.30 Lin Grand Turina 2 pts win at 3.70 (hopefully Venetia will have this one ready)  Loads of money for Bill And Barn

--------------------------------------------

Too many ifs and buts plus too short prices for a Trixie later on today.  I'll pass

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Just the one selection and winner today.  The net profit was 5.09 so my cumulative profit for Dec is 55.31 points.  Ytd 1/1 to date = -£177.86 pts

Five races tomorrow in the UK above class 4.  I will look at them first

 

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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I'm Sure but not certain.... but the opposite of your assumption is more true, overall the class of a horse becomes more pronounced when its gruelling ground. I'm sure others on here that deal in stats could tell you more.

Always happy to oblige.

In handicaps on heavy going horses carrying less than 11st 2lbs have an AE of 1.03, those above have an AE of 0.97. This is despite the heavier weights having a strike rate of 13% compared to 10% for the lower weights.

The impact is greater for chases, with an AE of 1.04 compared to 1.02 for hurdles.

Male horses have an AE of 1.05 compared to 0.95 for female horses.

GB courses have an AE of 1.04, Ireland is 0.99.

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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I wouldn't be comfortable with a system that was based on only 163 results. I suspect also there was an element of back-fitting. 

It would be interesting to see the stats difference between say Cheltenham/Punchestown festivals against "run of the mill races" or graded v run of the mill Hcaps

Edited by Zilzalian
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On 12/9/2021 at 6:52 AM, MCLARKE said:

I wouldn't be comfortable with a system that was based on only 163 results. I suspect also there was an element of back-fitting. 

Having said that, I have checked the results over the last 8 years and it has returned an AE of 1.03 from 3,448 selections.

On soft / heavy AE is 1.08

Class 1 to 4 AE is 1.05

19 - 22 furlongs AE is 1.12

Forecast odds rank 4 to 10 AE is 1.17

Age 7-8 AE is 1.09

Last run less than 10 days ago AE is 1.10

7lb claimers AE is 1.17

1st last time AE is 1.08

CD winner AE is 1.08

December to February AE is 1.08

Non novice AE is 1.06

Tuesday to Friday AE is 1.14.

I may well add this to my list of systems.

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