Racing Chat - Saturday 4th December

[The Brigadier]

A cracking afternoon’s racing with the terrestrial ITV cameras at Aintree where it will ride pretty testing on both the National and Mildmay course whilst at Sandown it’ll be slightly better although still on the slow side.

 

Aintree 1.30

Eleven three year olds go to post for this 2m 1F listed fillies juvenile hurdle. Favourite White Pepper was the best of these on the level and travels over from Ireland representing Gavin Crowell and jockey Conor McNamara. She was a very easy winner of a 3y0 maiden hurdle at Galway in October and appears to have been saved for this contest, a race Cromwell has won twice in the last six years. She’ll handle wet conditions and is the one to beat. As you would expect there are several promising fillies in opposition including fellow Irish challengers Sea Sessions who was a 16L runner up to Triumph Hurdle favourite Fil Dor last time out and Six Feet Apart trained by Joseph O’Brien who was a winner at Fairyhouse last month. The best of the British challenge may well be the Ian Williams trained Malakahna who won apparently unfancied (12/1) at Fakenham on her hurdles debut. She beat rival Aliomaana 8L that day and although 4lb worse off can confirm that form and run well. 

WHITE PEPPER 2 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

MALAKAHNA 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5 123 Coral

 

Sandown 1.50

A small but select field of 7 assemble for the Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices’ Chase run over just short of 2 miles. Third Time Lucki will be a strong favourite here following two emphatic victories at Cheltenham and on official ratings is the one they all have to beat. He wasn’t as impressive last time as he was previously and he can take a bit of a tug. I would like to see Harry Skelton let him bowl along at the front of the field and this course could be made for him. That said he’s been priced accordingly at around the 6/4 mark and there maybe better value in the vastly improved 4 year old Il Ridoto who took a competitive handicap apart last Saturday at Newbury showing much improved form from his British/stable debut previously. Paul Nicholls’ French bred gets a 6lb age allowance here and it wouldn’t be a shock if he was to be competitive in a race where on official ratings he only has 9lb to find with the favourite. 

IL RIDOTO 1 point win @ 7/1 Bet365

 

Aintree 2.05

A strong field of 8 go to post for this years renewal of the Many Clouds Chase run over 3m 1F of the Mildmay Course. Favourite Protektorat looks short enough to my eyes despite his excellent seasonal re-appearance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup when runner up to Midnight Shadow. He’s stepping up 5F here and has stamina to prove and with Bridget Andrews taking over from Harry Skelton looks skinny enough in the betting considering on official rating he’s comes out only 4th best here. Native River went off a weak second favourite in this last year and appeared to blew up needing the run. I can see the same scenario here. Simply The Betts has his stamina to prove whilst Tiger Roll looks past it at this level despite the fact he is the highest rated. Mor a matter of elimination than anything else leads me to Kim Bailey’s Imperial Aura who has to carry a 6lb penalty here for his grade 2 win at Ascot a year ago. He wasn’t done with when falling on his re-appearance in the Betfair Chase at Haydock a fortnight ago six from home and he’s worth chancing as long as he’s none the worse for that mishap. David Bass has ridden him on all 14 starts so knows him inside out and I’m expecting a big run. 

IMPERIAL ECHO 2 points win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

Sandown 2.25

Despite Shishkin’s absence this years renewal of the Betfair Tingle Creek will still be a spectacle especially with favourite Chacun Pour Soi likely to get his way out in front and try and lead them all a merry dance. That appears to be the best way to race him as it proved when winning at Punchestown in April when we last saw him. His main rival today Nube Negra was way behind that day and I fully expect Willie Mullins 9 year old to be very hard to beat today. He hasn’t been seen since April but his record fresh reads 1111 and with Patrick Mullins doing the steering can win this. Hitman and Captain Guinness are rated 22lb inferior on official ratings and it maybe Nube Negra that chases him home. 

CHACUN POUR SOI 4 points win @ EVS Bet365

 

Aintree 2.40

A big field of 22 contest the Becher Handicap Chase run over 3m 2F of the Grand National course. Plenty hold claims here with the bookmaking firms going 7/1 the field in places. Mac Tottie won the Gran Sefton over these fences at the last meeting and has an additional 5F to travel and 7lb to carry. Charlie Longsdon’s Snow Leopardess impressed when winning at Bangor and should run well if taking to these unique fences. David Pipe runs four and it’s his Vieux Lion Rouge that will be carrying my cash. He’s already reached veteran age at 12 but was highly impressive in this race last year when pulling 24L clear of his 13 rivals. He’s only 5lb higher now and that certainly wouldn’t of changed the result last season. Trained for this race, he’s had a pipe opener (pun intended!) at Chepstow but it’s over these National fences he comes alive and he should run a big race. 

VIEUX LION ROUGE 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5h 123456 Paddy Power

 

Sandown 3.00

The London National is a handicap chase run over 3m 5f and has attracted 10 hardy stayers this year. Both Deise Aba (2/2) and Larry (2/3) have excellent course records and hold excellent chances in this competitive handicap. My fancy however is Strictlyadancer who did us a favour when winning at Haydock a fortnight ago and can once again give up and coming Welsh trainer Christian Williams a Saturday TV winner. That was his third win on the bounce and despite a 7lb rise in the weights his winning spree may not have finished yet. This step up in trip looks likely to be very much to his liking and with Jack Tudor who stills claims a valuable 3lb in the saddle can take the first prize. 

STRICTLYADANCER 2 points win @ 4/1 BetVictor

 

Aintree 3.15

A competitive 15 runner handicap hurdle run over 2m 4F concludes the action at the Merseyside track. Kateson poked his grey nose ahead in this race last season and returns to defend his title off of the same mark under a different trainer now in Alastair Ralph (previously with Tom Lacey). David Pipe’s Martinhal will love the wet ground and would be interesting if strong in the market whilst Tom Lacey’s Pounding Poet ran well over the course and distance last time and can be competitive. The most interesting runner however has to be the Olly Murphy trained Tamar Bridge who makes his handicap debut here. He looks quite well treated if you take his easy beating of the now rated 132 Bass Rock at Ayr in a match last March at face value. He made all to win on his reappearance in a Wetherby novice hurdle from stable mate Storm Of Light who’s won since at Uttoxeter. Off of 128 he can run a mighty race hopefully from the front which seemed to suit him last time. 

TAMAR BRIDGE 3 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

Sandown 3.35

A competitive 2 mile handicap hurdle concludes the Sandown card today. The promising Metier looks favourably treated and should run well although may prefer softer conditions. Gary Moore saddles a brace in the disappointing Natural History and  Hudson De Grugy who has won on three of his four visits to the Esher track including last time out in November when defeating Will Sting by 2L. Samarive was disappointing on his handicap debut at Cheltenham in October but has been given 6 weeks off and it would be no surprise if he were to prove better than his mark. Last year’s victor Benson returns and is the one I want to be with today. Trained by Dr Richard Newland and ridden by Lee Edwards today he blatantly didn’t see the trip of 2m 5F out on his re-appearance at Cheltenham three weeks ago when weakening at the last and losing two places on the run in. With that run behind him, a drop of a pound and back to the minimum trip I expect a much more promising run from him despite him racing off of a 8lb higher mark than last year. 

BENSON 2 points win @ 7/2 Bet365

 

 

[fd1972uk]

May look at a few UK races, but will see.

Main focus of betting will be for Tampa Bay tomorrow night for a little US race night. 

[black rabbit]

Hillsixteen   240 aintree   1/4   pt  win   27/1

 

P/L    +120  pts

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Wolverhampton 6.30

LOST GOLD 7/2

[fd1972uk]

Done an aintree e/w treble on a free bet.

Landofsmiles/vioux Lion Rouge and Pounding Poet. 

130 Ain - 2 moneyback offers on White Pepper 6/5  / Malakhana 13/2

Got a wad of free betsto use so should see me fine for another few bets and tonights US races (last 6 races at Tampa). 

Ok added the following, all free bets apart from wolv double. 

Aintree double 45/1

1145 My Bobby Dazzler & 1440 Mactottie

Double 13/1

San 1350 Il Ridoto & Ain 1515 Tamar Bridge 

Sandown Double 21/1

1425 Nube Negra & 1535 Metier

Wolv Double

1600 Los Camachos & 1730 Muscika

Edited December 4, 2021 by fd1972uk

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 offer races.

AINT	1.30	Six Feet Apart	7.00
SAND	1.50	Minella Drama	10.00
AINT	2.05	Imperial Aura	4.50
SAND	2.25	Captain Guinness	14.00
SAND	3.00	Larry	6.50
SAND	3.35	Metier	4.00

[azzybear]

white pepper 1.30 tigar roll 2.05 number negra 2.25

[azzybear]

shaman de bergerlIst 12.15

[Budgie 65]

16 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

May look at a few UK races, but will see.

Main focus of betting will be for Tampa Bay tomorrow night for a little US race night. 

I cant c tampa for tommorow pick a meeting tommorow and ill do the selections u will probably beat me 

[MCLARKE]

Trend analysis for the Becher Chase.

Top 8 in the weights 1 / 60.

Forecast odds < 16/1 3 / 79, forecast odds 16/1 - 33/1 5 / 67.

This reduces the field to 6, HOGAN'S HEIGHT 22/1, SNOW FALCON 28/1, VIA DOLOROSA 33/1, DIDERO VALLIS 33/1, HILL SIXTEEN 16/1 and COBOLOBO 33/1.

Bred in France 5 from 40. This leaves VIA DOLOROSA, DIDERO VALLIS and COBOLOBO, all at 33/1.

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

1.37 Weth Saint Palais 11/10

1.50 San Edwardstone 10/3

3.15 Ain Tamar Bridge 5/2

one 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 63.46 points

Singles:

2.05 Aint Simply The Betts 1.5 pts win 10/3

3.15 Aint Pounding Poet 1 pt win at 15/2

1.37 Weth Admiral Barratry 0.5 pt win 18/1

2.12 Weth No Risk Des Flos 1.5 pt win at 7/2

Total stakes 8.5 points

 

 

[Lanky Lad]

Ain.2.05 Native River 7/2

San.3.00 Strictlyadancer 13/2

Wolv.4.00 Eligible 5/1

3 x 1 point each way doubles

1/2 point each way treble

Total Amount Staked = 7 points

[fd1972uk]

1 hour ago, Budgie 65 said:

I cant c tampa for tommorow pick a meeting tommorow and ill do the selections u will probably beat me 

Its Tampa tonight, I posted that yesterday, lol. Doing from race @ 7.10. Tbh as Ive said before, I usually have fun bets, so it isnt too much insight into the races, usually look at some who might have a chance but will usually side with a name/no, although I do look out Samy Camacho ridden horses, hes been fairly good for me. 

[fd1972uk]

White Pepper absolute tossed it at that last fence went down on 2 legs, at least got moneyback on it, it did kick back but the winner had the momentum at that stage. Malakhana was way off. 

[Budgie 65]

I should have put american revolution tap the faith mo donagal up i done the american racing after English selections so anyway ive got 60 on American revolution 270 back if it wins and my nap as well but the more i look into the american racing the more i like it

[Budgie 65]

Im at aquaduct its same time ill have a look c what i can find American revolution come on

[Budgie 65]

Oh ok tampa start 2000 i do form now give me hour or 2 i post it on usa racing

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

1.37 Weth Saint Palais 11/10

1.50 San Edwardstone 10/3

3.15 Ain Tamar Bridge 5/2

one 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 63.46 points

Singles:

2.05 Aint Simply The Betts 1.5 pts win 10/3

3.15 Aint Pounding Poet 1 pt win at 15/2

1.37 Weth Admiral Barratry 0.5 pt win 18/1

2.12 Weth No Risk Des Flos 1.5 pt win at 7/2

Total stakes 8.5 points

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Compensation for yesterday.  My last leg of the Trixie just beats my singles win bet.  One singles winner as well results in a 61.72 pts profit on the day.  = 68.22 pts cumulative for December and at least reduces my ytd loss to -164.95 pts

GOOD RESULT 

Two meetings in the UK tomorrow. I may possibly may post up if I can find another Trixie

 

Edited December 4, 2021 by The Equaliser

[calva decoy]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

1.37 Weth Saint Palais 11/10

1.50 San Edwardstone 10/3

3.15 Ain Tamar Bridge 5/2

one 4 pt win Trixie = poss return of 63.46 points

Singles:

2.05 Aint Simply The Betts 1.5 pts win 10/3

3.15 Aint Pounding Poet 1 pt win at 15/2

1.37 Weth Admiral Barratry 0.5 pt win 18/1

2.12 Weth No Risk Des Flos 1.5 pt win at 7/2

Total stakes 8.5 points

 

 

Well done with Trixie .?

[calva decoy]

Lots of Irish runners in the UK today & tomorrow at Graded meetings & normal ones NO UK runners in Ireland today or tomorrow in their Graded races & we wonder why we do so poor at Cheltenham !

[MCLARKE]

On 12/4/2021 at 1:31 AM, MCLARKE said:

AW selection

Wolverhampton 6.30

LOST GOLD 7/2

Won. BSP 7.0

11 / 55. LSP +£10.53