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Racing Chat- Saturday 27th November


The Brigadier
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Ladbroke Trophy day at Newbury and Fighting Fifth day at Newcastle. 8 ITV races and with the ground currently good to soft at both tracks but with the possibility of the ground turning at the latter with a wet forecast. Here’s my thoughts on those races. 

 

Newbury 1.15

A decent field here of 13 for the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase run over 2m 6 1/2F. It looks a wide open race with no stand out bet. Kapcorse won this by 10L back in 2018 off of 128 and is back here off of only 3lb higher. He did attempt the double last season but could only finish 7th and hasn’t been seen since. The in form Colin Tizzard stable saddle two in Ofalltheginjoints, who’s out of form and Kauto The King who isn’t. He’s won 5 of his last 6 starts rising 16lb but has claims here under 7lb conditional Harry Kimber. Top weight Dame De Compagnie could ideally do with wetter ground whilst the Philip Hobbs runner Kalooki has an absence of 245 days to overcome. My fancy is the Emma Lavelle trained Killer Clown. Lavelle has her team in excellent shape and her Getaway gelding ran as well as could be expected in the Old Roan Handicap Chase at Aintree on his re-appearance when weakening two fences from the finish to finish 12 1/2L last of the six finishers. That form has subsequently been boosted by the 3rd Midnight Shadow winning the Paddy Power and with that run under his belt looks worth an each way bet in a competitive handicap. 

KILLER CLOWN 1 point each way @ 6/1 1/5th 1234 

 

Newcastle 1.30

Only four turn up here for this 3 mile novices’ handicap chase and it’s hard to look past the favourite, the Alan King trained Valleres who ran so well on his fencing debut at Newbury three weeks ago when 3rd to Dublin Four. He’s stepping up in trip today but as a three mile Irish point winner on heavy ground one would think that won’t be an issue today. This looks a weaker race than the one he contested that day  and he can take it from Tupelo Mississippi who’s sporting cheek pieces for the first time and has already shown a liking for this track winning twice from four starts here. 

VALLERES 3 points win @ 11/10 Bet365

 

Newbury 1.50

The 2m 4F 118yds handicap hurdle may feature a well handicapped horse in the Nicky Henderson runner Lecales Article who after a rather stop start season as a novice last season has acquired a mark of only 125 and if there’s one horse in the field who could blow his mark out of the park today than it surely is him. Nico de Boinville was injured on the gallops on Thursday so Tom Cannon comes in for a spare ride for the Seven Barrows trainer and I’m expecting a big run. Top weight Ch’tibello is not badly treated now (only 1lb higher than when winning the County Hurdle in 2019) but he’s rising 11 soon and may not be as good as he once was. Calva D’Auge represents the Paul Nicholls but he’s not been beating much in his two recent victories and is creeping up the handicap. Masters Legacy only just got up at Chepstow last time and though 2lb higher should run well. The biggest danger to my fancy however is the Tom Lacey trained Glory And Fortune who was not disgraced when a 10L 6th in the Greatwood Hurdle last time but they may all be playing for a place if Lecales Article is as well handicapped as I think he is. 

LECALES ARTICLE 2 points each way @ 7/2 1/5th 1234

 

Newcastle 2.05

Run over just short of three miles at the north eastern track, the Rehearsal Handicap Chase has attracted a healthy field of 13 this year. It looks a fiendishly hard race to crack with Sandy Thomson’s The Ferry Master among the favourites. He ran with promise when probably needing his re-appearance outing at Musselburgh but looks short enough to my eyes. Top weight Nuts Well has to prove his stamina whilst Good Boy Bobby is also not certain to see out this trip. One who will stay well is the Harriet Graham trained Aye Right who was placed in some decent handicap chases last season and doesn’t look badly treated now. He showed little on his re-appearance but the trip was too short that day and he should be thereabouts. Dan Skelton saddles Spiritofthegames who continues to fall down the handicap and is becoming very well handicapped. He’s now off of 141 which is 7lb lower than when runner up in last season’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase and wasn’t disgraced in the same race last time out when 7th. It’s a tough call but I’ll split my bets between Aye Right and Spiritofthegames. 

AYE RIGHT 1 point win @ 5/1 Bet365

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES 1 point win @ 6/1 Bet365

 

Newbury 2.25

Only four go to post for the Gerry Feilden Handicap Hurdle with a warm favourite in the Jonjo O’Neill trained Soaring Glory. He may have just needed his first run of the season at Ascot when winning there last month and has been raised 6lb for that win. His shrewd trainer rates him Champion Hurdle class so surely if he’s up that standard he can win this off of 149. His biggest threat maybe the bottom weight Captain Morgs who Lao won at Ascot last time and has been raised 6lb for that win. Gowel Road is two from three here but appeared to relish the longer trip last time and may not relish the drop back to the minimum trip today. Soaring Glory will be hard to beat in my opinion. 

SOARING GLORY 3 points win @ 6/5 William Hill

SOARING GLORY & EPATANTE 2 point win double

 

Newbury 3.00

A near maximum field of 21 go to post for this years renewal of the Ladbroke Trophy Chase run over 3m 2F of the Berkshire track and once more it looks a tough race to crack. Willie Mullins sends three over from Ireland for a race he won 4 years ago with Total Recall, the best of which appears to be Ontheropes who won the same handicap as he did prior to his victory. He has to be respected. Last years winner Cloth Cap appears to have his ideal conditions once more and expect him to be ridden prominently as he was last season having had a prep race without his customary cheek pieces, which are back on here, at Cheltenham. He’s looking to join an elite band of horses to have won this prestigious race twice of Mandarin, Arkle and Denman but has to do it off of a 18lb higher mark than last year. Fiddlerontheroof bounced back to form when winning the Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle and looks the best of the Colin Tizzard trio here which also includes Copperhead and Mister Malarkey. Potterman is a horse I want to include in my staking plan as he looks overpriced. Alan King’s charge comes out a slightly better horse than Enrilo on Bet365 Gold Cup form from Sandown last April yet is currently over twice the price of his rival today. Bottom weight Danny Whizzbang has come from Paul Nicholls and is a lively long shot having his first run for Milton Harris who’s having such a good time of it at present. My main bet though has to be with the Henry De Bromhead trained Eklat De Rire who was a decent novice chaser last season going off only a 10/1 chance when unseating in the Brown Advisory Chase at Cheltenham (that’s the RSA chase to me!). He impressed when winning on his re-appearance in a listed contest at Wexford and if there is one horse here who could force himself into the betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup it surely is him. The icing on the cake has to be that Rachael Blackmore is over to ride. 

EKLAT DE RIRE 2 points each way @ 9/2 1/5th 1234567 William Hill

POTTERMAN 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234567 William Hill

 

Newcastle 3.15

Only 6 go to post for this season’s renewal of the Fighting Fifth Hurdle with last years winner Epatante the one they all have to beat. He was electric in this last year when scooting 4L clear of one of his rivals today Sceau Royal and although things didn’t really go well for her after she still ran respectably when 3rd in the Champion Hurdle to Honeysuckle. Trainer Nicky Henderson has had her back operated on as he felt she wasn’t her usual fluid self over hurdles in the second half of the season and if that’s helped she will be very hard to beat. Sceau Royal comes here in top form having won twice over hurdles this season and if there’s no rain will have his conditions. He can run well although whether he can turn the tables with the favourite is another thing. Paul Nicholls runs his smart three year old from last season in Monmiral who looked one of the best (if not the best) of his generation. Unbeaten now in 5 career starts (4 for Nicholls) he has shown a liking for very soft ground and if the rain stays away that maybe against him. Replaying last years win for the 2020 Champion Hurdler and you would be happy to take Evens or bigger and I’m loath to desert her here. 

EPATANTE 3 points win @ 5/4 William Hill

 

Newbury 3.35

A decent sized field of 13 go to post for the last of the ITV races. Run over the minimum trip of 2 miles the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy Handicap Chase looks open enough. The key form race maybe the the Ascot 2m1F handicap chase from 4 weeks ago. That day Sam Thomas’s Grey Diamond ran 3rd to Amoola Gold with two of today’s rivals Frero Banbou and Sully D’Oc AA 14L and 18L respectively behind him. On only one pound better terms I fully expect Grey Diamond to confirm that form and he looks the bet here for his upwardly mobile young trainer who made his name as a jockey riding the great Denman who has two of his biggest pay days on this actual day when winning two Hennessy Gold Cups. Numitor is on a roll at the moment having won 3 of his last 5 starts and shouldn’t be dismissed having being put up only 5lb for his latest Wetherby success. Bottom weight and youngest horse in the field is the Paul Nicholls trained Il Ridoto who’s only had the one run for his trainer at Newton Abbot 7 weeks ago. He’s lacking in experience here and Grey Diamond is the bet for me. 

GREY DIAMOND 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

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Trends for the Hennessey.

Not in the top 5 in the betting, 1 / 104.

This reduces the field to 6. FIDDLERONTHEROOF 15/2, ONTHEROPES 7/1, ONE MORE FLEURIE 25/1, MISTER MALARKEY 33/1, COPPERHEAD 22/1, DEMACHINE 16/1.

Not in the top 10 inthe weights, 1 / 74. This removes MISTER MALARKEY AND COPPERHEAD.

Ran less than 26 days ago, 0 / 33. This leaves ONTHEROPES 7/1 and ONE MORE FLEURIE 25/1.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

ITV BET365 4/1 offer.

NEWB 1.15 Killer Clown 4.50
NEWB 1.50 Glory And Fortune 6.00
NEWC 2.05 Glen Forsa 5.00
NEWB 3.35 Frero Banbou 5.50

Not a great start to this with 6 losers. However with minimum odds of 4/1 there is always going to be long losing runs.

In 2021 there have been 325 selections with 70 winners (22% SR) and a LSP return of 116.58 points (36% ROI).

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20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, it includes the free bet on the next ITV race. If it's not an automatic selection then I take the horse that is closest to 4/1. If it loses then I get my money back, if it wins then the free bet continues to the next ITV race.

wonder how long 365 will last if doing all time. wouldnt want to risk losing for the account unless they just restricted that deal after while if they did.

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1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

wonder how long 365 will last if doing all time. wouldnt want to risk losing for the account unless they just restricted that deal after while if they did.

To be fair to BET365 I am a few thousand up and they haven't restricted me yet.

If they do then so be it, most of my bets are on the exchanges these days anyway.

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12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Great battling performance. I thought it had lost so if I had bet on it I would have viewed the DH as a bonus.

I agree, sigh of relief when dh called. i only backed it when it drifted to an unbelievable 16/1 and then better still it returned 18's biggest annoying thing for this greedy bastard i had it in a decent r/forecast with sceaux royal as well. if you consider i wouldn't back it at early 9/1 price so the return was pretty much 9/1, Funny gg Not so sleepy always underrated but has produced at least 3 great efforts at big prices over a few years, because i back bigger prices it really is my type of horse. anyone remember Quito back in the day?

 

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