MLS Cup > Play Offs

[_Ghost_]

MLS Cup play offs begin this weekend; here's a statpack;

[DarrenTse]

Seattle Sounders vs Real Salt Lake

Kick Off: 11/23/2021 23:30

 

Seattle Sounders

The draw with Vancouver Whitecaps in the last round of away game made Colorado Rapids surpass them in the ranking. Missing the top spot ensured that Seattle did not qualify for the quarter finals, but had to play against Real Salt Lake in the first round. Seattle haven't won the last six games. But they do have the best defense record in the Western Conference for conceding only 33 goals this season.

Real Salt Lake

Damir Kreilach scored in the fifth minute of stoppage time to help the team beat Kansas City 1-0 last round and win the last playoff in the most dramatic case. Real Salt Lake have achieved success in attack this season for scoring 55 goals in the regular season, But they also exposed the problem of defense for 56 goals conceded in the regular season, 33 of them on the road. Nevertheless, they can gain confidence from the last two away wins over Dallas and Kansas City.

Prediction

Seattle may not be at their best form, but they had an impressive home record against Real Salt Lake and won the last four home games. Considering that they have the home advantage in this game, Seattle Sounders are expected to win game with their quality shining through.

Pick: Seattle Sounders

Total: Under 2.5/3 goals

[DarrenTse]

Nashville vs Orlando City

Kick Off: 11/23/2021 21:00

 

Nashville

Nashville have achieved an excellent results this season for only suffering four defeats in the regular season and ending with the most draws (19) among all teams, ranking 3rd in the Eastern Conference. One factor in their success this season is their excellent home state. They have remain unbeaten at home this season so far and have scored 55 goals at both ends of the pitch and have remained stable on defense, as evidenced by their 13 clean sheets this season.

Orlando City

After finishing 6th in the Eastern Conference, Orlando City will face a difficult road trip, but they can gain confidence from the end of the regular season for having lost only one of the last eight games and having scored goals in the past 11 games. Orlando have scored 20 points away this season, ranking 3rd in the East and have lost only one of the previous four away games. The players Daryl Dike and Nani scored 10 goals each in the regular season, and they will become the key points for the visiting team's goals.

Prediction

There were 6 h2h games between these two sides and 4 of them were draws, the other two times, both sides win once. But with the unbeaten home record of Nashville this term, so Nashville are expected to win this game with their home advantage.

 

Pick: Nashville

Total: Under 2/2.5 goals

[DarrenTse]

Colorado Rapids vs Portland Timbers

Kick Off: 11/25/2021 17:30

 

Colorado Rapids

Colorado Rapids are in the Conference Semi-Finals of the MLS Cup Playoffs for the first time since 2016. They clinched the top spot in the Western Conference for the first time in club history by beating Los Angeles FC 5-2. Colorado averaged 1.76 points per game in the 2021 regular season, and they are the fourth-best defence in the regular season, conceding only 35 goals.

Portland Timbers 

This is the fourth time in Portland Timbers’ history in which they have made it to the second stage of the MLS Cup Playoffs. They beat Minnesota United 3-1 to advance to the second round of the postseason on Sunday. Having scored at least once in all but one of their last 25 league games, Portland Timbers have scored three goals in each of their previous three matches.

Prediction

Portland Timbers have not beaten Colorado Rapids this season, losing 2-0 and drawing 2-2 in their last two encounters. There should be plenty of individual quality on display for each team, but Colorado Rapids are more compact defensively with a goalkeeper who is among the best in the league, which could be the difference in this match.

1X2 Pick: 1

Final Results: 2-1

[DarrenTse]

New England Revolution vs New York City Football Club

Kick Off: 11/30/2021 20:30

 

New England Revolution

New England got a first-round bye in a record-breaking regular season, ranking the first place with 73 points. New England Revolution had a relaxed year for losing only five times. Bruce not only broke this year's MLS regular season victory record and surpassed Sigi Schmid, but also his team rewritten several categories of records in 2021. However, the American coach knows better than most people that it doesn't make any sense unless you win the championship in the end.

New York City Football Club

New York City Football Club came to the game with the victory over Atlanta United by two second-half goals last weekend. There were many doubts in October whether this team could qualify for the postseason, but at present they are in good shape and remain unbeaten in the last six games, including a 2-0 win in the first round - last Sunday's playoffs. This will be the first time the Pigeons have entered the second round of the playoffs since 2019. They hope their previous experience will be useful - having lost at this stage of the postseason on four consecutive occasions from 2016-2019.

Prediction

The latest confrontation between these two sides ended with the victory for New England Revolution. This New England Revolution won so many games that it was hard to bet with them even if their top scorer didn't play.

 

Pick: New England Revolution

Final Result: 2-1

[DarrenTse]

Philadelphia Union vs New York City Football Club

Kick Off: 12/05/2021 16:00

 

Philadelphia Union

It took Philadelphia two tough playoffs to get to this point, beating New York Red Bulls with a wonder strike by Jakob Glesnes in overtime and winning the penalty shootout against Nashville. If the penalty victory over Nashville is included, the Union have won seven consecutive games at Subaru Park, and they have only conceded two goals during that time.

New York City Football Club

The team have done perfectly so far with a big second-half performance to beat Atlanta United in the first round and finally defeated the top team in the league in the regular season. New York City remained unbeaten in their previous three away games - winning two of their previous three matches with Philadelphia Union played there.

 

Prediction

Philadelphia Union have only lost one of the last four games against New York City. Coupled with their excellent defensive ability this season and the home advantage in this game, we predict that Philadelphia Union will win this game.

 

1X2: 1

Final Results: 1-0

[_Ghost_]

It's the MLS Cup Final on Saturday evening as Portland Timbers take on NYCFC.

My pre-match tissue has the side from New York as slight favourites;

I've backdated my ratings to after the final round of the regular season, at which stage I would have made Portland 19.53 for MLS glory and NYCFC 15.11. A name the finalists bet would have been 90.02.

MLS Cup Final Trends (since 1996)

9/25 draws, 4 matches going to a penalty shoot out
2.48 average goals
15/25 BTTS
5/25 Under 1.5
10/25 Over 2.5
6/25 Over 3.5
6/25 finished 1-1

MLS Single-Leg Tie Trends (including finals, since 2012)

13/71 draws, 11 matches going to a penalty shootout
3.07 average goals
43/71 BTTS
11/71 Under 1.5
45/71 Over 2.5
25/71 Over 3.5
14/71 finished 2-1 either way
11/71 finished 3-1 either way

West v East (since 2012)

177W-96D-65L
1.81 goals for with 1.16 goals against - a GD of +0.65
Home advantage across the entire MLS is worth around 0.55, therefore Western sides hosting Eastern sides is worth an extra 0.10 of a goal.

The collection of stats/ data below are taken over the last 24 regular season matches only;

Match Stats

xG Stats

Shots Stats

Shots on Target Stats

Head to Head

Final Thoughts

I'm on NYCFC Outright at 20/1 (see outright thread) so won't be getting too involved on the day. I do think there is some mileage in a 1-1 correct score, I'll stick half a point on that at 7.00

 

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, jamied02 said:

I'm on NYCFC Outright at 20/1 (see outright thread) so won't be getting too involved on the day.

 I followed with a small e/w bet after reading your post. Had forgotten about it until recently!

[harry_rag]

On 12/9/2021 at 3:31 PM, jamied02 said:

I do think there is some mileage in a 1-1 correct score, I'll stick half a point on that at 7.00

 Didn't follow on that. Was on the brink of taking a profit juts before the equaliser (I hardly ever close out) but ended up having to suffer the anxiety of extra time and pens. Thanks for the original recommendation.