Bundesliga II Predictions > Nov 19th - 21st

[Benny1887]

Hannover 96 - Paderborn

Paderborn +0 @1.93 (Pinnacle)

It is really difficult not to see Paderborn as the favourite here. They are the best away team in this league (5-1-0) due to being the best counter team in the league. It is not just the results, they also play better away than at home. Their form is excellent, at their last away game in Karlsruhe they had a 4:0-lead at half time. The game before the break against Ingolstadt (2:1) was not that convincing, though, but it was a home match against a defensive opponent, and that is simply not Paderborn's preferred matchup. The situation in Hannover will again be more convenient for them.

 

With regard to Hannover, they are the perhaps biggest disappointment of this season. The club atmosphere is terrible, and the home advantage is barely existing. Their ultras do not support the team anymore due to protests against covid restrictions, and as a consequence, the atmosphere in their home games could barely be worse. Terrible home performances like the one against Schalke (0:1 and 1 vs. 20 shots) have been the consequence. Of course, the team has great potential, and on a good day they can probably beat any team in the league. But their last game before the break at Düsseldorf (1:1) was really weak again, and also, they miss their two most important defensive players: Goalkeeper Zieler (replacement Hansen is much worse) and defense chief Börner, who only has a small chance of being fit by Friday. Defensive players like Krajnc or Hult have been in a terrible form lately, and also offensively, many potential key players have been out of form and usually it has just been Kerk who creates dangerous moments.

 

Altogether, the differences between both teams are just too large to justify basically even odds. Paderborn are in a much, much better shape. And the home advantage is so small due to the abovementioned reasons (and Paderborn's preference for away games), so that those odds do not make much sense at all. Paderborn are the favourites here, which is why we have a clear value bet at that line. 

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

SV Sandhausen 

They are in form, which have been unbeaten for four matches. In last game, they win over Dynamo Dresden at 0-1. Now they rank the sixteenth in the table of the League. They play poorly as host, which have not got any victory this season yet.

 

Nurnberg

They are sitting in the sixth place in the table. They play well on offensive, with 1.31 scoring goals in average of this season. But they are not in good condition recently, which have been winless for two matches in the League.

 

Verdict:

Nurnberg are certainly better than SV Sandhausen. Besides, Nurnberg take the upper hand over SV Sandhausen in past head to head clashes with a record of 7W-3L. It is believed that Nurnberg are going to win in upcoming game.

 

1x2 Pick: 2

[Benny1887]

Schalke - Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen (-0.25) @2.14 (Pinnacle)

Odds on Bremen are way too large. In their last home game, Bremen actually went in with lower odds against best league team Pauli, and they even clearly dominated the game in the first half. Then, they showed their best season performance last round when they won 2:1 at Nürnberg. They've been on a positive way since the last-minute equaliser in Sandhausen. They've been improving since then, and it is often like that that teams of manager Markus Anfang need some time to understand his very offensive system. As I've said, especially last round's game in Nürnberg was great and the return of Bittencourt, who is an outstanding player for BL2 standards, has significantly improved their offensive. On the other hand, their regular players Friedl, Vejlkovic and Rapp are out, but Bremen's most valuable player, CL experienced Toprak, is fit enough to return to the starting eleven. So, team news are not so negative at all because Toprak's return improves them a lot.

 

By contrast to Bremen, Schalke's recent tendency has been quite bad. I expected their manager Grammozis to be fired after the shocking poor display against Darmstadt last round (1:3). But he gets another chance. Fans want him to be sacked, and I agree with them because he just does not get enough out of this great squad. Even at their wins, they never really showed convincing football. Rather, they benefitted from a very clinical conversion of chances at their victories. Bremen certainly play the much more attractive football compared with Schalke.

 

To sum this up, Bremen is currently the better team compared with Schalke. Their form has been clearly better in the last few games, and also the club atmosphere has been better since the great win at Nürnberg. Schalke come from the perhaps worst season display, and their manager is under huge pressure due to their weak performances. Bremen have full fan support and should never get such a big price in a home game against a team that is struggling for form.

[Benny1887]

On 11/16/2021 at 6:46 PM, Benny1887 said:

Hannover 96 - Paderborn

Paderborn +0 @1.93 (Pinnacle)

It is really difficult not to see Paderborn as the favourite here. They are the best away team in this league (5-1-0) due to being the best counter team in the league. It is not just the results, they also play better away than at home. Their form is excellent, at their last away game in Karlsruhe they had a 4:0-lead at half time. The game before the break against Ingolstadt (2:1) was not that convincing, though, but it was a home match against a defensive opponent, and that is simply not Paderborn's preferred matchup. The situation in Hannover will again be more convenient for them.

 

With regard to Hannover, they are the perhaps biggest disappointment of this season. The club atmosphere is terrible, and the home advantage is barely existing. Their ultras do not support the team anymore due to protests against covid restrictions, and as a consequence, the atmosphere in their home games could barely be worse. Terrible home performances like the one against Schalke (0:1 and 1 vs. 20 shots) have been the consequence. Of course, the team has great potential, and on a good day they can probably beat any team in the league. But their last game before the break at Düsseldorf (1:1) was really weak again, and also, they miss their two most important defensive players: Goalkeeper Zieler (replacement Hansen is much worse) and defense chief Börner, who only has a small chance of being fit by Friday. Defensive players like Krajnc or Hult have been in a terrible form lately, and also offensively, many potential key players have been out of form and usually it has just been Kerk who creates dangerous moments.

 

Altogether, the differences between both teams are just too large to justify basically even odds. Paderborn are in a much, much better shape. And the home advantage is so small due to the abovementioned reasons (and Paderborn's preference for away games), so that those odds do not make much sense at all. Paderborn are the favourites here, which is why we have a clear value bet at that line. 

FT 0:0

Cash back - In the first half, Hannover were better and would have deserved the lead. In the second one, it was Paderborn who were clearly better. Paderborn missed one 1000% chance plus they hit the post twice after Hannover's defender had been sent off. That's why only 0:0 was a bit unlucky for Paderborn, but still not entirely undeserved due to Hannover's strong first half.

[Benny1887]

Ingolstadt - Karlsruhe

 

Karlsruhe (+0) @1.92 (ISN)

 

Odds just do not make any sense here. Ingolstadt is doubtlessly the worst team in this league, and especially at home, they do not really seem to have any real home ground advantage. It probably has something to do with the fact that they have the worst fan support in this league. It is true that they showed their perhaps best season display in the last game before the internationals break (1:2 defeat at Paderborn). But nevertheless, they still do way too many mistakes in the defense, and are much too harmless offensively. They will certainly relegate in the end of this season.

 

On the other hand, I deem Karlsruhe a team that plays better away than at home. It has been like that for at least a year. They just tend to look better away than at home or at least it does not seem to make a difference for them where they play. They are in good shape, too. Before the internationals break, they managed to beat Leverkusen in DFB Pokal and then they showed a strong performance against Hamburg (1:1) when they were actually the better side. Also, Karlsruhe are very good at set pieces (not yet in this season, but in general they are), whereas Ingolstadt have enormous problems at set pieces. 

 

I really do not understand how odds can be more or less even here. Of course, it is Karlsruhe who are the favourites today, and we therefore have a very nice value bet here. 

 

[Benny1887]

On 11/17/2021 at 8:47 PM, Benny1887 said:

Schalke - Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen (-0.25) @2.14 (Pinnacle)

Odds on Bremen are way too large. In their last home game, Bremen actually went in with lower odds against best league team Pauli, and they even clearly dominated the game in the first half. Then, they showed their best season performance last round when they won 2:1 at Nürnberg. They've been on a positive way since the last-minute equaliser in Sandhausen. They've been improving since then, and it is often like that that teams of manager Markus Anfang need some time to understand his very offensive system. As I've said, especially last round's game in Nürnberg was great and the return of Bittencourt, who is an outstanding player for BL2 standards, has significantly improved their offensive. On the other hand, their regular players Friedl, Vejlkovic and Rapp are out, but Bremen's most valuable player, CL experienced Toprak, is fit enough to return to the starting eleven. So, team news are not so negative at all because Toprak's return improves them a lot.

 

By contrast to Bremen, Schalke's recent tendency has been quite bad. I expected their manager Grammozis to be fired after the shocking poor display against Darmstadt last round (1:3). But he gets another chance. Fans want him to be sacked, and I agree with them because he just does not get enough out of this great squad. Even at their wins, they never really showed convincing football. Rather, they benefitted from a very clinical conversion of chances at their victories. Bremen certainly play the much more attractive football compared with Schalke.

 

To sum this up, Bremen is currently the better team compared with Schalke. Their form has been clearly better in the last few games, and also the club atmosphere has been better since the great win at Nürnberg. Schalke come from the perhaps worst season display, and their manager is under huge pressure due to their weak performances. Bremen have full fan support and should never get such a big price in a home game against a team that is struggling for form.

FT 1:1

Half lost - The draw was more than deserved for Bremen, but the penalty in 90+9 was scandalous. Until the late 0:1, Bremen were more active and closer to take the lead. Schalke, who did not invest much offensively, took the lead after a goalkeeper mistake. Everything pointed to an away win until the VAR gifted a penalty to Bremen with the very last situation of the game.

[Benny1887]

On 11/21/2021 at 10:09 AM, Benny1887 said:

Ingolstadt - Karlsruhe

 

Karlsruhe (+0) @1.92 (ISN)

 

Odds just do not make any sense here. Ingolstadt is doubtlessly the worst team in this league, and especially at home, they do not really seem to have any real home ground advantage. It probably has something to do with the fact that they have the worst fan support in this league. It is true that they showed their perhaps best season display in the last game before the internationals break (1:2 defeat at Paderborn). But nevertheless, they still do way too many mistakes in the defense, and are much too harmless offensively. They will certainly relegate in the end of this season.

 

On the other hand, I deem Karlsruhe a team that plays better away than at home. It has been like that for at least a year. They just tend to look better away than at home or at least it does not seem to make a difference for them where they play. They are in good shape, too. Before the internationals break, they managed to beat Leverkusen in DFB Pokal and then they showed a strong performance against Hamburg (1:1) when they were actually the better side. Also, Karlsruhe are very good at set pieces (not yet in this season, but in general they are), whereas Ingolstadt have enormous problems at set pieces. 

 

I really do not understand how odds can be more or less even here. Of course, it is Karlsruhe who are the favourites today, and we therefore have a very nice value bet here. 

 

FT 1:1

Void - The draw was fair. Ingolstadt were better in the first half and took the lead through a deflected shot from long range. They then missed a huge chance for a potential 2:0. Karlsruhe's equaliser after a corner came out of blue air. In the second half, Karlsruhe were better and much closer to the 1:2, but they did not create enough big chances.