Malaga v Tenerife - Nov 15th

[harry_rag]

Not much to look at today so ended up with a couple of bets on this game despite no spread prices on the markets in question.

20 points on >5.5 cards shown at 2.07 with Uni (evens plus a 5% boost) and 10 points on a penalty taken at 5/2 Sky Bet. (Hills the only other firm with prices and they go 4/5 and 2/1 respectively for the equivalent bets).

Ref Rafael Sanchez has handled 26 games at this level (none in the top flight yet) and has shown >5.5 cards in 15 of them (3 out of 7 this season). I make it that both teams have seen that many cards in more than half their games this season as well. I think it's at least a shade of odds on that we get 6 or more cards tonight (with reds counting double).

I was doing well with penalty bets at one point but it tailed off quite a bit. I arrived at the conclusion that it's more random than most things and individual ref or team stats aren't that reliable. Having said that, I'll risk a small bet at the odds for a ref who's awarded 14 pens in 12 of his 26 games.