Alex's low odds rolling bets thread

[alexcaruso808]

Just now, aldric said:

That was quick ?

And there was me worrying that I’d made a bad bet ?

I’m banking £10 and will have another go in the same game.  Surely United will come back from this…

bet 17

[alexcaruso808]

bet 18 - hopefully this will match. 

[alexcaruso808]

That bet didn’t match unfortunately.  I will look for something else later on. 

[alexcaruso808]

Bet 18 - I would be surprised if this doesn't land.  AEK are top of the league and Akritas are bottom, and Akritas haven't won a match since the start of January.  

Let's see how it goes.

[alexcaruso808]

Damn, I was wrong here ?

 

[alexcaruso808]

Bet 1:

[alexcaruso808]

Bet 2  

[alexcaruso808]

Bet 2 came in in the 87th minute, which is a bit too close for comfort ?

Bet 3:  

[alexcaruso808]

Bet 4:

[alexcaruso808]

Bet 5:

 

[alexcaruso808]

Bet 6:

[alexcaruso808]

Lost again.   

I'm going to knock this on the head for a while.  It's getting frustrating losing money for the sake of making a few pence.  

I need to explore another market - suggestions are welcome!

[aldric]

Not a market but I used to like my last bank standing thread.

Start with a bank of say £50 then split that in to 5 banks of £10.

Bet on each bank in turn and keep going until you have lost 4 bets and are left with bank 5 and keep whatever is left.

I used to bet on any markets etc but if you were selective I'm sure you could get a good run going.

I also did it purely on over .5 goals market but it didn't work well from memory!  I hate that market.

[alexcaruso808]

@aldric, it's a strange old market and quite frustrating at times!  

 

When you talk about splitting a your bank do you mean keep the winnings from each bet and put them in bank 5?  Say, for example, you are working from bank 1 and you put £5 bet and the bet lands and you make £3 profit - would you put that £3 in bank 5, for which the total would be £8 in that bank?  Your next bet would be another £5 from bank 1?

[aldric]

I just rolled over the profit in each bank until I hit a loser.  An old post should show what I mean:

 

 

[alexcaruso808]

34 minutes ago, aldric said:

I just rolled over the profit in each bank until I hit a loser.  An old post should show what I mean:

 

 

Thanks, that's a pretty good staking plan , I'm liking it.

[aldric]

2 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks, that's a pretty good staking plan , I'm liking it.

It was good fun, can't believe it was 15 years ago tho!

I tried it quite a few times, I seem to remember if I had 2 banks left and I was in profit then I would take the money and run.

[Skittle]

On 2/10/2023 at 5:54 PM, alexcaruso808 said:

Damn, I was wrong here ?

 

Top versus bottom often has a sting in the tail. I've become a bit wary of that scenario.

[harry_rag]

10 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I need to explore another market - suggestions are welcome!

It's easy, time to try spread betting! 

All you need is a 1000 point bank (you decide how much a point is but could always go as low as 10P so £100 total if you're risk averse) and a willingness to accept that you could lose around half the bank before you go on to double it. I can't actually guarantee you that you will make 1000 point profit or won't lose the bank but in my experience the alternative is unprecedented.

For some reason the prospect of a small potential profit on each bet but a much bigger and unknown potential downside puts some people off!

[alexcaruso808]

1 hour ago, Skittle said:

Top versus bottom often has a sting in the tail. I've become a bit wary of that scenario.

Yeah, it can be strange, I expected Tigres to wallop them, but I guess Juarez put everything they had into defending.

 

25 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

It's easy, time to try spread betting! 

All you need is a 1000 point bank (you decide how much a point is but could always go as low as 10P so £100 total if you're risk averse) and a willingness to accept that you could lose around half the bank before you go on to double it. I can't actually guarantee you that you will make 1000 point profit or won't lose the bank but in my experience the alternative is unprecedented.

For some reason the prospect of a small potential profit on each bet but a much bigger and unknown potential downside puts some people off!

I was reading the Wikipedia article and I am trying to get my head around it.   Is this article accurate would you say?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting

[harry_rag]

9 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Yeah, it can be strange, I expected Tigres to wallop them, but I guess Juarez put everything they had into defending.

 

I was reading the Wikipedia article and I am trying to get my head around it.   Is this article accurate would you say?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spread_betting

It's a bit dry and also covers the US concept of "spreads" which is more or less handicap betting but the section headed "Sports Spread betting" gives you a high level view. This should be more useful from an actual punter's perspective.

https://www.sportingindex.com/training-centre/sports-spread-betting-the-basics/

[harry_rag]

The big difference between spreads and fixed odds is "the more right you are, the more you win, the more wrong you are, the more you lose" so you need to stake accordingly and always remember that "the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen". By that I mean that if you buy bookings at 40 (10 points per yellow and 25 per red) it's possible that there could be no cards shown. It would be a mistake to stake on the basis that there's "no way" there will be less than 2 cards.

Buying is usually like an odds against bet with a known and modest downside but a potentially unlimited upside so appeals to the more casual punter. Selling tends to be the opposite, a known and modest upside with an potentially unlimited downside, That deters a lot of people (more than the "never bet odds on" or "never back unders" thinking on fixed odds betting) so it means you're far more likely to find value by selling. Here's some examples of my best wins and worst losses:

Sold England Women's hotshots at 171 - made up at 50 for a profit of 121 points (they were expected to score around 7 tries but only scored 2)

Sold Leinster's substitute try minutes at 99 - made up at 0 for a profit of 99 points (the subs were expected to score at least a couple of tries but didn't score any)

Sold Bamford's goal minutes at 71 for England v Andorra - made up at 0 for a profit of 71 points (he was expected to score at least a couple of goals but didn't score at all)

Sold New Zealand sub try minutes at 111 - made up at 335 for a loss of 224 points (subs expected to score at least a couple of tries ran in at least 5 for my biggest ever loss)

Sold Messi's assist minutes at 23 for PSG v St Etienne - made up at 214 for a loss of 191 points (rated as odds against to register an assist he got at least 3)

Sold Wigan hotshots at 93 -  made up at 250 for a loss of 157 points (in for 3 or 4 tries they scored 10 for my worst hotshots loss)

To put those extremes into context, my average loss from a losing bet is 33.6 bets and my average profit from a winning bet is 27.8 points with 36% of bets being losers.

[alexcaruso808]

Thanks @harry_rag, I appreciate the summary of spread betting.  I think I would need to be very disciplined, as I tend to chase my loses sometimes.  I will have to give it a good bit of thought, it sounds like it would take a while to get my head around it.

[harry_rag]

15 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks @harry_rag, I appreciate the summary of spread betting.  I think I would need to be very disciplined, as I tend to chase my loses sometimes.  I will have to give it a good bit of thought, it sounds like it would take a while to get my head around it.

It's definitely not a betting medium suited to chasing!

I did post a thread a while back that was effectively a diary of my bets for a few weeks (I used a progressive staking plan but have only ever stuck to level stakes in reality). Worth a read if you do want to see a real-life example.

That ran for 50 bets and the profit of 763 points to 1 point level stakes was quite a bit better than average. To give an example of the volatility, my return across 50 bets ranges from a 730 points loss to a 1142 point profit. Over 100 bets the results are similarly volatile but over 200 bets the worst return is only -272 points and I've never experienced a loss over 400 consecutive bets (+261 being the worst return and +3553 the best). So it's a bit like the stock exchange, where you should only invest for the longer term and not if you aren't willing to potentially ride out some short term losses.

[alexcaruso808]

Your returns are quite impressive!  

I can't find any mention of PayPal on the SPIN website, so I am assuming they won't let you deposit funds using that method.  I am reluctant to use my debit card as I'm paranoid about the bank seeing me depositing money on betting websites! 

[harry_rag]

20 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Your returns are quite impressive!  

I can't find any mention of PayPal on the SPIN website, so I am assuming they won't let you deposit funds using that method.  I am reluctant to use my debit card as I'm paranoid about the bank seeing me depositing money on betting websites! 

Yeah it would appear it's debit card only, perhaps to ensure that the payment has definitely come from you (spread betting being FSA regulated which is generally in the punter's favour in terms of protection but not if you prefer to use PP).

I've only ever deposited by debit card with any bookie of either "flavour" to be fair and it's never caused me any issues. I used my current account for years but now have an old savings account that came with a debit card and that is used for all my betting and nothing else.

[alexcaruso808]

52 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Yeah it would appear it's debit card only, perhaps to ensure that the payment has definitely come from you (spread betting being FSA regulated which is generally in the punter's favour in terms of protection but not if you prefer to use PP).

I've only ever deposited by debit card with any bookie of either "flavour" to be fair and it's never caused me any issues. I used my current account for years but now have an old savings account that came with a debit card and that is used for all my betting and nothing else.

I am often concerned that if I ever apply for a loan that they would look at my statements.  

It would probably be easier if I opened up a Revolut account and deposited money from my current account into that and used Revolut for betting.

[harry_rag]

8 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I am often concerned that if I ever apply for a loan that they would look at my statements.  

I can't say for sure but I suspect it would be of no relevance assuming your overall credit record was reasonable enough in the first place. I very much doubt that the millions of recreational gamblers who use their debit cards to fund a few accounts find themselves unable to get credit on that back of it.

[aldric]

24 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I am often concerned that if I ever apply for a loan that they would look at my statements.  

It would probably be easier if I opened up a Revolut account and deposited money from my current account into that and used Revolut for betting.

I imagine it would only be an issue with credit checks for mortgages etc if you were depositing hundreds / thousands to bookies on a regular basis.

[alexcaruso808]

Thanks guys - it's something I have always been wary of, perhaps a little over cautious about!