alexcaruso808 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Share Posted April 3, 2022 Some USA action up next.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Share Posted April 3, 2022 This one didn't take too long either, there was a goal in the 9th minute. New bank = £16.66 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Share Posted April 3, 2022 Next one.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Share Posted April 3, 2022 I'm just about to head to bed, but I decided to check this game on Bet365, and a goal was scored! It only took 7 shots on target! New bank = £18.29 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 4, 2022 Author Share Posted April 4, 2022 AC Milan vs Bologna... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Just looking at a goal there...........1.05 on BF. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 4, 2022 Author Share Posted April 4, 2022 Well my luck has come to an end, with a nil-nil draw. I will start again with £10 because it's been fun watching my bank slowly grow. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 4, 2022 Share Posted April 4, 2022 Must admit I didn’t like the look of that one so didn’t put a request up. A few too many 1-0s in the recent form if I recall. Unfortunately I got chinned by a late match on Arsenal +3, just as I was thinking how well the handicap bets were doing. A gentle reminder that shorts odds are no magic bullet! alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 4, 2022 Author Share Posted April 4, 2022 I've gone for Benfica vs Liverpool, surely there just has to be a least a single goal in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 5, 2022 Author Share Posted April 5, 2022 15 hours ago, harry_rag said: Must admit I didn’t like the look of that one so didn’t put a request up. A few too many 1-0s in the recent form if I recall. Unfortunately I got chinned by a late match on Arsenal +3, just as I was thinking how well the handicap bets were doing. A gentle reminder that shorts odds are no magic bullet! I know, that's the unfortunate thing about it. I think that short odds are generally more reliable in football, as opposed to something like horse racing. What do you look for in recent form in footy games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said: What do you look for in recent form in footy games? To be honest my approach to these bets is more art than science (or gut feel than maths), which is no doubt why I'm struggling to make a profit! If I follow someone else I generally try and get matched at one tick better than them and only take the same price if I particularly like the bet myself. For my own bets I just look at past results on soccerbase and get a feel for whether I like the game for >0.5 or a handicap bet. I also look at the price and see if it feels good, bad or indifferent. Sometimes I ask for a price and either get matched or don't, if it's a stronger bet I might take the offered price near to kick off, Still at the stage of seeing how it goes really. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 5, 2022 Share Posted April 5, 2022 Re the reliability of short odds, I'm conscious that I've played quite a range of prices with a focus mainly on perceived value rather than just consecutive winning bets. Obviously, the higher the average odds of the bets the worse the strike rate is likely to be. Having had a quick look back at all the bets I've posted or followed since I started doing this, last night's loss was the first one I've encountered at odds of 1.03 or shorter, the overall record being 98 winners from 99 bets. That's 17-0 at 1.01, 40-0 at 1.02 and 41-1 at 1.03. I'm not sure that's especially significant given a fairly small sample size at the odds, but I was just curious how bets at that end of the scale had performed. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted April 6, 2022 Author Share Posted April 6, 2022 On 4/4/2022 at 10:27 PM, alexcaruso808 said: I've gone for Benfica vs Liverpool, surely there just has to be a least a single goal in this one. New bank = £10. 29. I'm going to take a break from betting over Easter, will be back in a week and a bit. Thanks for your thoughts @harry_rag. I'm sure there is some kind of angle to be found in these bets, it's just finding it! harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 I'm going to try and start this again. I haven't been betting much over the last few weeks at all, just following random bets on here. Anyway, I'll stick £10 on Ukraine to win Eurovision. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Laying the UK a safer bet? Surprised to see us as second favourites even if we've got a better tune and more likeable act than is usually the case. I noticed that we were shorter than Sweden in the outright market but longer for top 4, which I guess suggests it could be all or nothing on the night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted May 13, 2022 Author Share Posted May 13, 2022 1 hour ago, harry_rag said: Laying the UK a safer bet? Surprised to see us as second favourites even if we've got a better tune and more likeable act than is usually the case. I noticed that we were shorter than Sweden in the outright market but longer for top 4, which I guess suggests it could be all or nothing on the night. Hmm, never thought of doing that. Well, I'll leave it as is now - who knows who'll win? I think UK will probably be in the top 3. I think Norway have to be the crowd favourite, they certainly have some of the most creative outfits! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted May 14, 2022 Author Share Posted May 14, 2022 Well, I was sweating a bit while watching some of the results, but Ukraine won in the end. New bank = £13.43 harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 21, 2022 Author Share Posted August 21, 2022 I think that I'll keep this thread going - I had kind of forgotten about it. I know it's been a while, but I will continue on with my bank from last time, just to keep things simple. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 21, 2022 Author Share Posted August 21, 2022 1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said: I think that I'll keep this thread going - I had kind of forgotten about it. I know it's been a while, but I will continue on with my bank from last time, just to keep things simple. new bank £13.82 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 21, 2022 Author Share Posted August 21, 2022 next bet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 22, 2022 Author Share Posted August 22, 2022 12 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: next bet... Last night I sat up and watched the first and there wasn't much action and it ended up nil-nil. I went to bed thinking that I would be starting from scratch in the morning. Thankfully the game ended up 1-2 and earned me a profit of 68p. All profits are inclusive of Smarket's commission. New bank = £14.50 aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 22, 2022 Author Share Posted August 22, 2022 Off to Sweden next! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 22, 2022 Author Share Posted August 22, 2022 5 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said: Off to Sweden next! Just one goal in this game, so thankfully my bet won. Bank = £15.21 aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 22, 2022 Author Share Posted August 22, 2022 I've gone for over 1.5 goals in this Mexican womens match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 23, 2022 Author Share Posted August 23, 2022 Not so good, the women have let me down. No more dodgy womens footy for me ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 23, 2022 Author Share Posted August 23, 2022 Bet 1: Bank is back to £10.00 aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 23, 2022 Author Share Posted August 23, 2022 Bet 1 wins - new bank is £10.29. No more bets for me until the weekend. Sadly I have to go back to work tomorrow and wont have much time to properly look at betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 27, 2022 Author Share Posted August 27, 2022 Next bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 27, 2022 Author Share Posted August 27, 2022 Damn, I put 10p less in than I meant to. I’m on the iPad and didn’t look at what I was typing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted August 27, 2022 Author Share Posted August 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: Next bet Bet 2 was a winner. Bank = £10.79. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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