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FA Cup Predictions > Nov 5th - 8th


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AFC Sudbury vs Colchester United

2021-11-05T20:55+01:00

 

AFC Sudbury

Doubtful:

Out (injuries/other): Alfie Stronge (0/0 g, cup-tied), Romario Dunne (0/0 f)

Suspended:

 

Colchester United

Doubtful: -

Out (injuries/other): Alan Judge (9/1 m)

Suspended: -

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more than 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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AFC Sudbury v Colchester (Friday night BBC2)
Colchester's recent record in the FA Cup is shocking as they haven't won a game in the competition for 5 seasons. Last year they were dumped out by Marine on penalties which was a fully deserved victory for the Step 4 side and I think there is a chance another Step 4 team could beat them here. Sudbury have only lost once in the league this season and although they lost 3-0 in the FA Trophy last weekend you can forgive them that given the importance of this game. Colchester aren't exactly doing well in the league either having won just 2 of their last 9 league matches. They did win last week although that was against bottom side Scunthorpe and I don't think they will fancy this at all especially given their recent FA Cup record.
 
Hayes & Yeading v Sutton
Hayes are having an incredible season so far having won 9 of their 10 league games whilst drawing the other. They have scored 29 goals and conceded just 7 which is seriously impressive. They are still in the FA Trophy and the League Cup so they haven't lost in any competition yet. Obviously this is their toughest test to date, but they also have a good recent FA Cup record and pushed Carlisle very close in the 1st round last season. Sutton are having a solid 1st season in the Football League, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and the one victory was against bottom side Scunthorpe. Hayes are capable of causing an upset here.
 
Lincoln v Bowers & Pitsea
It was a big surprise when Bowers & Pitsea managed to beat Aldershot to get through to the 1st Round as although Aldershot are not having a good season, neither are Bowers and they are 2 leagues below them. That means they are 4 steps below their hosts here and Lincoln should really win this with ease. Lincoln are in reasonable form in League 1 having only lost 1 in their last 6 and odds against them covering the -2 handicap looks well worth taking.
 
Yate v Yeovil
Yate seem to be on fire at the moment. I thought they might be vulnerable on Tuesday against Salisbury, but they ended up running out very easy 5-2 winners. In the league they are now unbeaten in 5 and they have won 4 of them. They beat Dover in the previous round and although Yeovil are better than Dover I certainly think that Yate could well cause another upset. Yeovil's form has improved although I still remain a bit unconvinced by them and I think they have benefitted more from teams underperforming rather than them being so good themselves. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but there is value in the home win given the form they are in at the moment.
 
Banbury v Barrow (ITV4 Saturday 5.15pm)
I mentioned Hayes who are unbeaten in the Southern Premier League South and Banbury are the same in the Southern Premier League Central. Again like Hayes they are unbeaten in all competitions as well (even when resting a lot of players in the League Cup on Tuesday night). They got through to the 1st Round last year but blew it after losing to Canvey Island. They are a better team this time around and in front of a big crowd on TV I think they have a real chance of causing an upset. Barrow haven't won in 5 league games now and I don't think they will fancy a game like this at all.
 
Bolton v Stockport (Sunday 3pm)
Dave Challinor will be looking to make an instant impact as Stockport manager as they travel to a Bolton side who aren't in good form in the league at the moment. They have only picked up one point in their last 5 games and as I mentioned on Saturday when backing them against Dover, Stockport have got a fantastic squad that have just been underperforming. They now have the right man in charge and I can see them pushing Bolton very close here especially with the added new manager boost.
 
Dagenham & Redbridge v Salford (Monday 7.45pm ITV4)
If this game had been played prior to Dagenham's last 6 matches they would have been much shorter for this game, but that just means we are getting better value in my view. They have lost 4 of those 6 matches, but they were much better against Chesterfield on Saturday, especially in the first half. Salford have lost 5 of their 6 away games in League 2 and if Dagenham are at their best I think they will win this.
 
FA Cup Acca
There are four games where I can't see an upset happening and so I will put them into an acca. Walsall to win at Kings Lynn, Carlisle to beat Horsham, AFC Wimbledon to beat Guiesely and Shrewsbury to win at Stratford in a game which is live on ITV4 at 3pm on Sunday. It pays nearly 5/1 with Skybet, but I will use the next best with the bigger bookies of 4.4/1 with Betfair to record it.
 
AFC Sudbury 1pt @ 7/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)
Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 9/2)
Lincoln -2 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365 (take up to 4/5)
Yate 1pt @ 17/4 with Skybet (7/2 with Bet365) (take up to 3/1)
Banbury 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365 (take up to 100/30)
Stockport 1pt @ 9/2 with William Hill (4/1 with Bet365) (take up to 11/4)
Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1)
Walsall/Carlisle/AFC Wimbledon/Shrewsbury 1pt @ 3.4/1 with Betfair (4/1 with Skybet and take up to 5/2)
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12 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

You mean under 3.5 cards?

No, over. What makes you say that? If it's doubt about the price, it was 15/8 when I placed the bet and used a 5% boost and is still 17/10 with the same firm. If it's uncertainty about how I've expressed it, I normally use > and < for over and under respectively.

The spreads have the game in for 33-36 bookings points which suggests over 3.5 should be no more than 6/4 and under would be an odds on shot.

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2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

No, over. What makes you say that? If it's doubt about the price, it was 15/8 when I placed the bet and used a 5% boost and is still 17/10 with the same firm. If it's uncertainty about how I've expressed it, I normally use > and < for over and under respectively.

The spreads have the game in for 33-36 bookings points which suggests over 3.5 should be no more than 6/4 and under would be an odds on shot.

Yes and I checked the odds and over had the bigger price so I was just hoping you didn't mean under and I am not very good at fractions.

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One card short unfortunately but no point in bemoaning bad luck as the 3rd card only came during the 10 minutes of added time!

Odds can be complicated, to be honest I tend to be a fractions guy when posting on here even though I have to use decimal when updating my spreadsheet. I do post decimal odds for exchange bets because that’s how they’re shown. When applying the boost to this bet it quoted the new price as 19/10 but the return was slightly better so I quoted the decimal price. Perhaps I should have mentioned the price involved a boost. :loon

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