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Racing Chat - Saturday 30th October


The Brigadier
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10 races covered by the ITV cameras and he’s my thoughts on them. With rain around the ground is likely to be on the soft side for all three meetings. 

 

Wetherby 1.20

A 2m 3F 85yds handicap chase that features two interesting fencing debutants in Harry Fry’s Revels Hill and David Pipe’s Gericault Roque. Both are worth monitoring in the market but preference is for the more experienced chaser Corran Cross. A 2m 3F beginners chase winner at Downpatrick for ‘Sneezy’ Foster in August he subsequently joined Richard Bandey for £22,000 at the Goffs UK horses in training sales and appeared not to stay 3 miles at Worcester earlier in the month when weakening after the last. Hampshire trainer Bandey had a winner a week ago at Worcester with Saint Palau’s and his charge here can run a big race. 

CORRAN CROSS 1 point each way @ 9/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Ascot 1.35

Only 7 go to post for this 2m 3F novice’s handicap chase with all bar rank outsider Lord Baddesley marking their fencing debut. Anthony Honeyball’s Kid Commando was a winner over hurdles on this card last year and has had his wind tinkered with since we last saw him. As a winning Irish point to pointer one would think that jumping a fence will suit and he looks sure to run well despite top weight. He’s been well found in the betting though and I’ll take a chance on Emma Lavelle’s Sam Barton who’s a lightly raced hurdler whom winning jockey Adam Wedge said last year that ‘he’ll make a lovely chaser’. He’s been nicely supported in the last 48 hours and looks sure to run well. You can’t dismiss the Gary Moore trained 4 year old Nassalam either who as such a young horse receives a 10lb allowance which could prove vital. The softer the better for him. 

SAM BARTON 2 points win @ 4/1 Bet365

 

Wetherby 1.55

Only 7 go to post for this 2 mile mares listed hurdle. Paul Nicholl’s Miranda has to be on the short list despite a 6lb penalty as must the unpenalised Henderson mare Marie’s Rock although she had a disappointing season last term and has questions to answer now. I favour the Skelton’s Molly Olly’s Wishes who at these weights is officially rated the best in the field by 2lb from Miranda. A consistent sort who ran up a hat trick last season including a similar contest over further by 15L at Warwick in February. If she’s fit she should give a very good account of herself.  

MOLLYS OLLYS WISHES 2 points win @ 10/3 Bet365

 

Ascot 2.10

14 go to post for this 1m 7F 152yds listed handicap hurdle with two decent sorts battling it out at the top of the market for favouritism. Jonjo O’Neill has his team in fine shape scoring an across the card treble on Thursday and trains Soaring Glory who was an impressive winner of the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last February. Subsequently 4th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham he drops back into handicap company off of a 10lb higher mark than Newbury and looks sure to be competitive. Preference however is for the Harry Fry trained handicap debutant Boothill who has always been held in very high regard by his trainer. A winner of a Kempton bumper and a Taunton novice hurdle he could literally be anything and may be able to exploit his initial handicap mark of 135. He was down to run in a novice chase on Sunday so you would think that his canny trainer is looking to take advantage of his hurdle mark before deciding whether to switch to the bigger obstacles. Best of the rest may well be Megan who was backed at big odds and travelling well when crashing out three from home in a valuable 4 year old handicap hurdle at Chepstow three weeks ago won by Progression. 

BOOTHILL 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hills

 

Wetherby 2.30

The Bet365 Hurdle is a grade 2 contest run over 3 miles and has attracted a field of 8. Despite a 6lb penalty for his Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle victory at Ascot last December Emma Lavelle’s 2019 Stayers Hurdle winner looks the one to beat. 3rd in last seasons Stayers Hurdle he hasn’t been seen since bombing out at Aintree in April but if back to somewhere near his best surely will be hard to beat under regular pilot Aidan Coleman. Master Tommytucker was chasing last season though is actually unbeaten in his two runs over timber whilst Thomas Darby is unpenalised and also comes into it here getting 6lb from the selections. Lavelle has been amongst the winners recently and has a major chance. 

PAISLEY PARK 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hills

 

Ascot 2.45

A competitive looking 10 runner listed handicap chase run over 2m 1F where a case can be made for near enough all of the runners. Venetia Williams is a streaky trainer and when she hits form is worth following. She’s yet to get going this season but had a winner at Ffos Las on Thursday and maybe now her horses are worth watching.She saddles Frero Banbou who’s form from Aintree in the Red Rum Handicap Chase last April stands up very well here with opponents Grey Diamond 3/4L behind him that day and 1lb worse off whilst the winner that day and favourite today Editeur Du Gite is now 10lb worse off for a 8 3/4L beating of Frero Banbou. Interestingly there has been a bit of money since declaration time for Venetia William’s 6 year old and he can take this. 

FRERO BANBOU 2 points each way @ 6/1 1/5th 123 Bet365 

 

Down Royal 2.50

Only five run in this years renewal of the Ladbrokes Champion Chase with the star attraction being last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo who is reunited with Rachael Blackmore who chose against him in that race last March. He’s the top rated here and if straight enough (Jack Kennedy said in the trade paper that he gave him a good feel when schooling him in the week)will take the beating. Gordon Elliott has two in the race in Delta Work, who’s always promised more than he’s delivered and Galvin who has a fair bit to do at the weights but comes here a recent winner. He’s a good ground horse mind so wouldn’t want the ground to ease. Paul Nicholls does well with his visits to the Northern Irish track and saddles Frodon who we know is likely to lead. A cracking race with Minella Indo the likely winner and is without doubt a race to watch and savour. 

MINELLA INDO 2 points win @ EVS Bet365 

 

Wetherby 3.05

A small but select field of 7 go to post for this years renewal of the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase with last years easy winner Cyrname back to defend his title under a 6lb penalty. He never went on from that impressive win pulling up in the King George Chase and in the Ascot Chase. He has had a wind operation since we last saw him and goes well fresh but at around Evens is hard to back following those last two defeats. Novice Shan Blue has a good record here but has plenty on at the weights whilst Nicky Henderson’s Fusil Raffles comes into it following his second at Newton Abbot earlier in the month. A small wager is suggested though on the Tom George trained Clondaw Castle who’s moment of glory came last season when winning the Close Brothers Handicap Chase (formerly Racing Post Chase ) at Kempton in February. He has fitness to prove but maybe a value alternative to the likely winner Cyrname. 

CLONDAW CASTLE 1 point win @ 11/2 William Hills

 

Ascot 3.20

Top weight Vinndication is three from three at the Berkshire track and will be hard to beat in the 3 mile London Cup Handicap Chase. He won this race, landing a gamble in the process, two years ago and is only 7lb higher now. He has an excellent record fresh (1112) and actually chased home Cyrname in the Charlie Hall on this day last year. He might be favourite but he will be hard to beat with David Bass riding for his guvnor Kim Bailey. Jerrysback is the other horse I’m interested in. I feel he’s still got a handicap like this in him and despite his awkward form figures I will be throwing away a saver at him. 

VINNDICATION 3 points win @ 3/1 William Hills

JERRYSBACK 1 point each way @ 17/2 1/5th 123 Paddy Power 

 

Wetherby 3.40

A competitive 14 runner 2m 3 1/2F handicap hurdle with many holding chances of sorts. The three handicap debutants interest me. Donald McCain’s Mackenberg, Harry Fry’s Our Surprise and Jedd O’Keefe’s Rattle Owl. All have claims but slight preference is with the Sedgefield novice hurdle winner Rattle Owl. The third that day has won a handicap by 10L since to give the form plenty of substance and smart conditional Oakley Brown keep the ride and is good value for his 5lb claim. In an open handicap a small each way bet on him looks the play here. 

RATTLE OWL 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power

 

 

 

 

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Far too many I like today. I have a few ante post running which I got at big prices and have shortened. I'm going to keep it simple but I'll probably put the wrong ones in here ?....

1105 Nantes Wassim 6/4 2.5pt win

1438 Musselburgh Cedar Hill 11/2 3pt win

1505 Wetherby Shan Blue 4/1 2pt win

1520 Ascot Vinndication 5/1 (ante post) 3pt win

10.5pts staked ?

 

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No Trixie today, just some single bets:

2.23 Nm State Occasion £2 win at 4.9 = £7.64 profit if it wins. Hundred Isles 50p win at 12/1

2.58 Nm Almohandesa 50p win at 9/1 (I don't like the favourite jumping from class 5 to class 1 and it lost on turf before)

2.38 Muss Gaelik Coast £2 win at 3.55 = £5.00 profit if it wins

3.48 Muss Dubai Days £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98 profit if it wins

4.23 Muss Waltons Grove £2 win at 4.7 = £6.40 profit if it wins.

 

Total stakes £9.00 today

 

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Down Royal 

105- FIL DOR 5/6 1st 5/4 

325- ENVOI ALLEN 1/3 1st 4/11

435- AMERICAN MIKE 1/2 1st 4/7 

Win treble 2.66/1 Bet365 

250- GALVIN 7/2 Bet3652nd 3/1 , don't like losing but fair play to Frodon , still fancy Minello Info will be the one to beat in the Gold Cup come March .

Edited by calva decoy
results update
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17 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Heard some guy from Paddy Power on radio talking about American Mike saying St ante post it was 16s, did mention it'd be nowhere near that come race time. 

Currently equal best priced favourite for the Champion Bumper on March 16th with Pink In The Park both at 14's ( 10's & 12's ) most places .

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

No Trixie today, just some single bets:

2.23 Nm State Occasion £2 win at 4.9 = £7.64 profit if it wins. Hundred Isles 50p win at 12/1

2.58 Nm Almohandesa 50p win at 9/1 (I don't like the favourite jumping from class 5 to class 1 and it lost on turf before)

2.38 Muss Gaelik Coast £2 win at 3.55 = £5.00 profit if it wins

3.48 Muss Dubai Days £2 win at 6.6 = £10.98 profit if it wins

4.23 Muss Waltons Grove £2 win at 4.7 = £6.40 profit if it wins.

 

Total stakes £9.00 today

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Just one winner today. That was a Brian Hughes horse.  He had FIVE winners today; that would have been a lovely payout had I put them in multiples.  Never mind.  A loss of £2.00 on the day.  My new balance is £797.26 (Bank £1056.22)

Six class races in the UK tomorrow, mainly at Carlise, with one at Lingfield and another at Huntingdon.  I wonder how Brian Hughes will fare tomorrow?

 

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