Tennis Tips - November 1 - November 7

[neilovan]

This Paris Masters has been a really weird tournament. Certainly not ideal to not play on the main court. Never seen a masters tournament where spectators sit in the eye-line of the server. Bizarre!  Serving rockets, out of a multi-colored backdrop is a joke. Hard enough to make a serve return when you CAN see the ball. You won't even see that nonsense at competitive club level. Ridiculous. 

The number of total miss-hits and shanks, pulls off regular rally balls is crazy.  It's a weird, inconsistent bounce, and a strange seam where the surface is joined. Basilvilli, Bautista Agut,, Rublev,  Carreno Busta, Hurkacz (yesterday), Alcaraz have at stages looked like guys ranked 125+. Just unable to hit the ball consistently off the surface.  They are seething with frustration (just watch Rublev break the racquet on his foot). That is pure aggravation!!!  Yet the grinders, and lesser skilled players have looked like world beaters. The lesson here is  don't take what happens here and use it as a prediction for future events. This tournament is an anomaly.  

Then add in that most of the top players are knackered and drained from a year of endless travel. All they want is 3 or 4 weeks at home, sleep in, recharge the batteries, have a home cooked meal, and chill. Kyrigos must be laughing...  Yet, the guys that had/have something to play for have had a field day. Koepfer, Maririnno, Duckworth, Gaston have set themselves up for a great year next year. Automatic entry into tournaments. A guy like Kevin Anderson (5-3 third set and serving against Gaston in qualification), really blew it. 

Frankly nothing more bizarre than Alcaraz losing last night. The crap court surface acts as a leveler, where you can't tell the difference between a pure ball striker and a relative hacker. Never seen anything like it, as the French crowd, and mob behavior totally intimidated Alcaraz, who managed to blow a 5-0 second set lead, and lose 17 points in a row. Alcaraz must have lost 20 of 22 points at the net.  Was unable to hit a drop shot to a drop shot. Crazy!

 

I don't think Djokovic wins today. Fritz has the perfect herky jerky, no  rhythm game to cause him all kinds of problems. And Fritz can really hit the ball, especially if he is free to blast away, while winning his serve easily. He's a smart tennis player, has an incredible economy of effort, and understands the conditions and the situation really well.  For me the Over/Under looks like lousy odds. I would be going for the straight Fritz win here.

 

Pretty confident that Hurkacz will beat Duckworth. Don't think Duckworth has played on the main court, and that crappy, confined  2nd/3rd court really suited him. Hurkacz relatively easily here, though he looked half asleep against Koepfer in the first set.

 

I think Medvedev destroys Gaston.  Medvedev one of the few players who seemed to have no problem with the surface. Hit the eyes outta the ball a few times last night. Against Korda, he was very very good. He got the momentum, and bashed his opponent into the ground with it. Gaston has the perfect game for him. The French crowd will have no effect on him.

 

Ruud has a free-bee against Zverev but not really sure what to expect here. May be a bridge to far for both of them. Leaving this one alone.

Edited November 5, 2021 by neilovan

[CzechPunter]

Thanks for the analysis @neilovan!

[Torque]

I'm wondering how Medvedev will cope with the slicing and dicing of Gaston. That could be the key to the match. The Frenchman is bound to employ a lot of drop shots and that will make it hard for Medvedev to get into his favoured rhythm of groundstrokes from the back of the court.

[DrO]

Just a few random thoughts on semi's.

Hurkacz was quite emotional after a win yesterday,knowing what was the stake for him - ticket to Turin. He could be emotionally empty a little bit today and without some cutting edge ih his game. Novak still missing a match routine after a long break. His games on return are solid,but he's lacking consistency in games on serve. If he finds a good servis rhytm he should more-or-less easily prevail. Fun fact:these two could meet in Turin as well,in group stage.

Zverev is complaining lately on being tired,but honestly i don't see that in his tennis,mainly because he's serving like crazy (in positive way). Knowing their recent h2h,i expect Medvedev to take control on match,trying to involve Sascha in longer rallys,and eventualy win in the end. Fun fact: this match is a replay of last year's final.

[Foo_Fighter]

3 hours ago, DrO said:

Zverev is complaining lately on being tired,but honestly i don't see that in his tennis,mainly because he's serving like crazy (in positive way). Knowing their recent h2h,i expect Medvedev to take control on match,trying to involve Sascha in longer rallys,and eventualy win in the end. Fun fact: this match is a replay of last year's final.

Well I expect Zverev to gain the upper hand over Medvedev and beat him. I know their recent record implies a Medvedev win, but Sascha is the best player in the world these days. 

[DrO]

Also,if u don't mind,i would like to say something about final as well.

Novak must not allow Medvedev,from the start,to be relaxed and get in the rhytm. That's exactly how he lost to Medvedev in Cincinnati (2020) and in New York couple a months ago. He has to put him under the pressure and to make good decisions in key points. By the look how he played today against Hurkacz,i'm not sure he could do that. Novak has to find a way to move Danil from baseline,otherwise i think he will lose.

Of course,this is Novak and you can't write him off completely, but i do expect a better Novak in Turin and Davis Cup Finals.

[four-leaf]

Tallon Griekspoor, that's a guy I would be backing next season even on hardcourts in some extent.