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Part time horse racing better-improvements/next steps?


ABerryman
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Hi All,

Around 2 months ago I started spending more time betting on horse racing alongside my job. I use the Geegeez site for the majority of my race research alongside replays if I feel the picture is unclear from the in race comments. I also try to watch back all the races I've bet in to build up a "bank" of knowledge around horses to make the research stage quicker.

My strategy is as follows (very similar for flat or jumps):

  • Assess the likely pace (&Draw) set up of the race and compare that to the course set up to see which horses may have the race run to suit.
  • Quickly review the data around how a horse has performed under these conditions before (this is a specific tab on the Geegeez website). To do this I adjust the going based on the weather forecast.
  • Once I have these factors I go down each horse individually and build a picture of its profile (which conditions it runs well in, handicap mark, any reasons to mark up recent performances) and then try to assign a price to this. I also add a comment to summarise its profile (this comment is visible for future races)
  • Whilst going down the list of horses I try to compare horses chances against each other to get them in the right "order" of the betting.
  • I currently try to price all races to either 0% of at most 0.5% per runner. E.g. for a 10 runner race I won't price up to more than 105%, sometimes I have to adjust my prices after my first attempt for get within this margin.
  • When the prices come out, I compare mine to the market. My view is because I bet to a lower % than the book will, if I make something a bigger price, there is a fair chance it is worth betting. However, I only bet it if I can see an argument for it winning, e.g. if I've made a horse 8/1 and the books go 12/1, but I don't fancy it, I may not bet it. (this suggests to me I have got my prices wrong).
  • If my price is bigger and I can see an argument for it winning then I will bet it. My bets tend to be 8/1 + but sometimes I bet favs if I think they should be shorter.
  • Staking- my stake is mostly dependent on how far out the bookies are compared to me, e.g. Last night I made a horse 4/1 and it was put in at 10's so this was a max bet, however there was also a horse at 10s that I had as a 7's chance so this was a smaller bet. The only other factor for staking is if I really fancy a horse to win I may bet bigger even if the margin isn't as big.

Results- In September I made 5% ROI, so far in October I'm at 88% ROI. I'm also fairly consistently beating SP, although hard to say how good that is given the low margin I bet to.

Any thoughts or improvements on the above would be appreciated, I also had the following questions:

  • Should I be betting to such a low margin?
  • How long is long enough to show that I'm profitable and it's not just variance? My stakes are lower than they could be but don't want to up them too early.
  • Do others use multiples? If so, whats the best way of using these?
  • Im getting a few accounts closed, is there anyway way around this apart from friends/family accounts?

Thanks in advance for any help/advice.

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Welcome to the forum @ABerryman

You are certainly putting the work in and this often leads to success. Results so far certainly seem positive. Long term you will have winning runs and losing runs, I have had 7 profitable months in a row but also 5 loosing months in a row, the trick is not to get too excited by winning runs and not too disillusioned by losing runs.

Personally I always look for the value horse rather than the one that is likely to win and I tend to go against the crowd, for instance I go for horses that are badly drawn and those that haven't won over the course and distance as these tend to be under bet.

Long term I make about 4% return on my betting, this doesn't seem a lot but has to be looked at in the context that the vast majority of punters loose money.

It is difficult to know when you are truly profitable, conditions change all the time and you have to be adaptable. I tend to want at least a years data before I would be confident.

I never met multiples but do gradually up my stakes over time. I started with £2 stakes but I'm now up to £100 although it's taken many years to get there.

Closed accounts is a fact of life and there doesn't seem to be a lot of logic in it. I have a couple of open accounts that I've made thousands with but others that have been closed even thoughh I've lost money. The big advantage these days is that you can bet on the exchanges.

Good luck and hopefully you'll share a few selections with us.

 

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@MCLARKEthanks for your response, some useful tips in there. The advice of trying to stay level headed is one I've heard from podcasts etc but is hard to stick to.

 

For anyone interested, my bets at Ayr tomorrow (max bet is 3 units or 1.5 units each way but don't get many of them to put the units into context):

14:30 Ayr: If Not For Dylan - 8/1 1 Unit EW - Ran well last time even after making bad mistake 4 out and this is easier, up in trip can help as well.

15:05 Ayr: Celestial Sky - 20/1 0.5 Units EW- Weak race and this ran okay last time, up in trip will help and down 4lbs.

15:05 Ayr: Espoir Moriviere - 8/1 1 Unit EW - Won this last year off same mark and seems best fresh

15:40 Ayr: Slainte Mhor - 11/2 -1.5 Units Win - With claimer is 13lbs lower than last run, may have needed that and could get easy lead here.

16:15 Ayr: Coopers Boy - 12/1 - 0.5 units EW- thought this was a fair mark on hcap debut in awful race

16:15 Ayr: Flash Moriviere - 33/1 - 0.5 Units EW- could improve on hcap debut and race is very poor.

16:50 Ayr Sputnik - 10/1 - 0.5 Units EW - Maybe needed last runs and this seems slightly big.

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Forgot to post yesterdays selection, was a poor day, lost about 8 units overall, couple of unlucky results with two beaten a neck and a short head.

Only 3 bets tomorrow:

13:20 Mabella 28/1 0.5  Units each way - Min price 16/1

13:30 A Little Chaos 11/2 1 Unit Win - Min price 9/2

15:50 Achy Breaky Heart 5/2 2 Units Win- Min price 2/1

 

Happy to share reasoning if anyone reads this and wants it!

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Three losers yesterday, not the best start to this thread! Tomorrows bets below:

 

This is copied and pasted from the bet tracker I use, on the right is the bookmaker I have bet with so can be ignore, next is the price I made it and then short reasoning, this reasoning is very brief but to keep things easy to read I didn't want to add anymore info. I'll probably keep it like this unless I get specific requests for more! Stake is in units.

image.thumb.png.0eb3e360cf87909ebb9cfbfc48c419e3.png

 

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Very small profit today with the 4 places with Skybet on Jaisalmer making the difference. Few ran awfully, Masterdream was unlucky to bump into a Skelton Hcap debutant.

 

Bets for tomorrow below, more smaller bets, and one thing you may notice is the reasoning sometimes isn't overly "confident", its all a price thing and these bets are where I think the horse should be shorter and has a chance of winning e.g. Grand Lord.

 

image.thumb.png.58a44a41671a980b889e358fb9d1cc57.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
Quote
  • Should I be betting to such a low margin?
  • How long is long enough to show that I'm profitable and it's not just variance? My stakes are lower than they could be but don't want to up them too early.
  • Do others use multiples? If so, whats the best way of using these?
  • Im getting a few accounts closed, is there anyway way around this apart from friends/family accounts?

Hi ABerryman

I hope you are still studying the betting market and making gains.

I will answer some of your opening post questions.

I assess all horses without prior reference to their prevailing odds.  My assessment is on several bases and I then shortlist those that have a string of "1"s on each basis.  Then, I will bet if the odds is over evens, and some.

How long is enough?   Depends on your aims.  For me, it is forever.  Of course on the way, my account moves all over the place.  My aims are modest, to pay for treats each and every week.  All I know is that I still have money in my 2 on-going accounts despite withdrawals since opening. As a consequence, my stakes have stayed low becuase I have never given the accounts a chance to build up to big sums. BUT that does not make me a good punter.  Am I satisfied?  Well I suppose - I would like more consistency - I do not enjoy the losing spells.

Multiples?  Yes, on 2 occasions:   ONE - If my bases throw up multiple very strong possibles and they are all odds on.  Then I throw a low some on the whole lot coming in.    TWO - The other is when I gain a freebie from one of the bookies.  Then I may use the freebie on a cross double, again if and only if 2 or more races on the day are showing apparently outstanding "1"s and "2"s in the same race.

Accounts closed?  Not yet.  But did have a bookie refusing me to open one.  (A family member has had many closed, plus another restricted to SP only.  Yuk!). 

 

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