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Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd October


Darran
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7.10am is the off time for the biggest WFA race in Australia, the Cox Plate. Just the 9 are set to line up after Gold Trip was scratched on Friday morning, but it looks a fascinating contest. You can watch the action online via Racing.com

Zaaki - G3 was the highest level he won at when trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here, but he has looked a different horse since going to Australia where he has won 5 times including 2 G1s. His most impressive victory so far came in the Doomben Cup in May where he won by a very impressive 7l in a decent time. He won his first two races this prep, but was only 3rd behind Probabeel in the Caulfield Stakes last time and she was reversing form from Sandown the time before. There has been a few reasons given as to why he disappointed at Caulfield although I don't really buy the ground being too quick as he won on good to firm in the UK. He clearly has a very good chance on most of the form he has shown in Australia, but this is the best race he has run in and coming off the back of that Caulfield run I just think he is too short in the betting to want to back.

Dalasan - Ran a hell of a race to finish 3rd to Addeybb and Verry Elleegant in the Queen Elizabeth back in April and would clearly have some sort of place chance on that form. Ran well enough when 3rd in the Epsom at Randwick last time as well, but would be a surprise winner.

Callsign Mav - Coming over from New Zealand, but looks to have a tough task on his hands.

Mo'unga - Trained, like Zaaki, by Annabel Neasham and she has been very sweat on his chances this week. He landed the Rosehill Guineas in March, but then disappointed a couple of times including when last in the Queen Elizabeth. Came back this prep and landed the Winx Stakes beating Verry Elleegant into 2nd place and then pushed Incentivise close in the Makybe Diva. He was 5th in the Epsom, but found himself too far back as he was still in 11th passing the 400m marker. I'm not sure he is quite good enough to win, but I can certainly see why his trainer think he has a good chance.

Verry Elleegant - Another one of the leading fancies who disappointed last time. She looked to be travelling really at Flemington in the Turnbull, but just didn't pick up at all to finish 4th behind Incentivise. I certainly think you can let her off that effort as it was basically too bad to be true as the rest of her form over the last couple of years has been top class. Not only has she landed WFA G1's, but she also won last year's Caulfield Cup. There is rain forecast and the prediction is there will be enough to take it into the soft ratings which will help her cause as well. I think she is a big player here.

Probabeel - Whereas Verry Elleegant would like the rain this mare wouldn't as all Probabeel's wins have been on good tracks. She was only 7th in this last year on a track rated a Soft 7 and was 12th in the All Star Mile here on a Soft 6. Although she took out the Caulfield Stakes over this trip last time, that was a slowly run race and I just wonder if 2000m is her optimum trip. Having said that if the ground was in the good range I probably would want something on her given her record on good tracks (she has only finished out of the first 2 twice in 17 starts and has won 12 of them).

State Of Rest - This time last year he was finishing a fairly well beaten 5th in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and Joseph O'Brien's runner has only been seen twice finish. First of he finished 3rd in a Listed contest at the Curragh in June and then went and won the Saratoga Derby in August stepping up to 1900m for the first time. Up another 100m in trip could bring about further improvement and unless they got more rain than forecast I don't see the ground being an issue. I think he does have to improve again, but you couldn't rule it and nothern-hemisphere 3yos have a great record in this race with a win, a 2nd and 2 3rds from 6 starters. He has e/w claims.

Anamoe - Was too strong in the Caulfield Guineas last time which was the fastest in the history of the race although I suspect the ground had probably rarely been as quick. That's not to diminish what he achieved because he is clearly a top class 3yo. I do think he has a very good chance, but there are a couple of things which put me off at the price he is. First of all he will likely be coming from the back as he is a held up horse who is drawn on the outside. Secondly there is that unknown about him at the trip and as much as he looks like he will stay you couldn't be certain. With those two things in mind I would want a bigger price about him as he could easily fly home into the places rather than into victory.

Captivant -  Anamoe has had his measure the last twice and unless the new trip makes a difference it is hard to fancy him. 

Verdict - Zaaki and Anamoe would not be surprise winners at all, but there prices seem on the short side to me given both have questions to answer. If there wasn't as much rain as forecast then I would want something e/w on Probabeel, but working on the fact it is going to be in the soft range I will back Verry Elleegant and State Of Rest. I can forgive Verry Elleegant her run last time and if she bounces back to her usual form then she will go very close. State Of Rest does have to improve, but he looked to thrive for the furthest trip he has raced over so far in America last time and he looks just the type who could go very well in this.

Verry Elleegant @ 9/2 with Bet365

State Of Rest e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

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The end of the flat at Newbury and Doncaster cross over with the start of the jumpers today with ITV showing 5 races from the home of National Hunt Cheltenham. The ground will be testing at the two flat tracks but just on the slow side at Cheltenham. Here’s my weekly thoughts on the days races:-

 

Cheltenham 1.45

16 runners go to post for this conditional jockeys handicap hurdle with the unexposed Samarrive heading the market. Trained by Paul Nicholls he was an easy winner of a Kempton novice hurdle on his British debut in April and literally could be thrown in here. He’s been well found mind in the market at around 9/4 and with four or more places I’m looking elsewhere for a small each way bet. Fergal O’Brien has made a blistering start to the season racking up 58 winners already and saddles three here. The pick of them maybe Samba Dancer who’s on a hat trick of victories following wins at Uttoxeter and Stratford this Autumn. He’s up 6lb but has the assistance of useful stable conditional Liam Harrison who can claim 3lb. He should be competitive and can reward an each way bet.

SAMBA DANCER 1 point each way @ 7/1 ¼ 1234 Bet365

 

Newbury 2.00

The ground is going to very testing at the Berkshire track for this 7F Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes. Favourite Noble Truth is trained by Charlie Appleby who’s had such a fantastic Autumn with his juveniles and will be very hard to beat here with the best form and proven ability to act in very soft ground. He was beaten under a length on Arc De Triomphe day at ParisLongchamp by Ralph Beckett’s mud loving Angel Bleu and with James Doyle taking over from William Buick is one of the days better bets. 

NATIVE TRUTH 3 points win @ 5/4 Bet365

 

Cheltenham 2.20

A 3m 1F handicap chase with last season’s Ladbroke Trophy Handicap Chase winner Cloth Cap heading the weights. He flopped in the Grand National when last seen when he reportedly made a noise and has undergone wind surgery since. 20lb higher now than his Ladbroke Trophy victory he looks one to be against. Kerry Lee is a very capable trainer who trains in the hills of Byton in Herefordshire and has won with her last 4 runners including an easy victory for Magic Dancer at Worcester in the week. She saddles Storm Control here and he looks the one to be on. He’s won two of his three starts at the track including twice last season and can race today off of a mark of 137 which is the same as when winning in the latter of those two victories. His usual partner Richard Patrick is in the saddle and he looks worthy of a fair bet. 

STORM CONTROL 2 points each way @ 11/2 ¼ 123 Bet365

 

Newbury 2.35

The St Simon Stakes is a Group 3 contest run over 1m 4F and the favourite Siskany who did us favour last time out when winning a valuable handicap at Newmarket on good to soft ground will be tough to beat. He’s top rated on official ratings and like his stable companion Native Truth in the 2.00 is proven on very soft ground so should be hard to beat as the only three year old in the race. Ilaraab will also love the ground and is maybe more of a threat than the likes of Max Vega who’s dropping in trip whilst don’t totally dismiss rank outsider Inchicore who will love the conditions. 

SISKANY 3 points win @ EVS William Hill

SISKANY & NATIVE TRUTH 2 points win double @ 5/4 & EVS

 

Cheltenham 2.55

A small but select field of four go to post for the Masterson Holdings Hurdle run over 2m 87yds. Likely favourite will be the Alan King trained Tritonic who looked smart last year when winning at Kempton prior to a rather disappointing 5th in the Triumph Hurdle. He’s useful but has to shoulder a 8lb penalty here against two nice fellow four year olds in the Dan Skelton trained Stepney Causeway who’s chasing a five timer and has had wind surgery since we last saw him and the promising novice I Like To Move It who won well at Worcester earlier in the month. Tritonic may well win but is poor value at the current prices and I’ll chance Stepney Causeway to small stakes. 

STEPNEY CAUSEWAY 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

Doncaster 3.15

The Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes is a Group 1 race and the last big two year old contest in the UK this year. Several big names have won this prestigious contest over the years including Reference Point, High Chaparral, Motivator, St Nicholas Abbey and Camelot. Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times in total and needs one more to equal the great Sir Henry Cecil’s record of ten wins. O’Brien saddles his unbeaten colt Luxembourg who’s looked pretty special in winning at Killarney and The Curragh this season. Both those victories were however gained on good ground and this will be his first experience on a racecourse of soft ground and for that reason alone I’ll look elsewhere with him being a very short price. Hopefully all 8 will run which will open the race up for a each way punt with Andrew Balding’s Imperial Fighter is the one that interests me the most as he has proven form on soft ground which none (bar rank outsider Hannibal Barca) have. A comfortable debut winner at Goodwood on soft ground he’s followed that up with silver medals at two Group 3 contests latterly behind smart juvenile Coroebus. He looks good each way value under David Probert. 

IMPERIAL FIGHTER 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th 123 Bet365 

 

Cheltenham 3.30

Only 9 go to post for this 2 mile handicap chase with the useful Jonjo O’Neill trained Sky Pirate heading the weights. His presence keeps the weights down for the Sam Thomas trained 8 year old Before Midnight who was last seen winning at Chepstow in April. A rise of 7lb is unlikely to halt his progression and he looks the one to be on today. 

BEFORE MIDNIGHT 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365 

 

Doncaster 3.50

A weak listed contest for two year olds run over 6F. Tom Dascombe’s Flaming Rib is some way clear on official ratings having won three nurseries but is short enough about a horse who has yet to race on ground slower than good to soft. I’ll take a chance with the Ralph Beckett trained Deodar who won a Newbury maiden on his debut on slow ground under Rob Hornby who’s replaced here by top pilot Ryan Moore. The horse he touched off that day Witch Hunter has shown decent form in two outings since and is now rated 101 which using him as a guide would put the selection only 6lb behind Flaming Rib with plenty of improvement to come. 

DEODAR 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hills

 

Cheltenham 4.05

An open looking 3 mile handicap hurdle can go the way of Irish challenger Born Patriot trained in County Kildare by Peter Fahy who’s been amongst the winners in the last fortnight in his homeland. He ran cutest favourite Tullybeg to just under 10L last time out at Navan over 2m 6Foff of level weights and re-opposes today on 8lb better terms and with the extra distance certain to suit looks a good each way bet considering he’s twice the price of Gordon Ellott’s Tullybeg. In a tough race he’s the selection with his regular pilot Kevin Sexton in the saddle. 

BORN PATRIOT 1 1/2 points each way @ 8/1 ¼ 123 Bet365

 

Doncaster 4.20

A typical end of season 5F sprint with 15 going to post. You can make a case for many at the front of the market as you would imagine with the likes of Zargun, Illusionist and Raasel all coming into the race in good form but I’m looking at a double figure priced runner in Philip Makin’s Lahore who comes here with form figures this season of 060007 ! He shaped like he was coming back to form when 3 1/2L 7th to the aforementioned Illusionist and Zargun at York last time and is now 8lb and 7lb better off with that pair respectively. He has a very good record at the Yorkshire track with figures of 1161 and his mark today of 90 is 11lb and 6lb lower than his two victories in 2020. He’s won here on soft ground (by 4L) so conditions hold no fear and will be ridden by PJ McDonald. He looks a value each way play in an open contest. 

LAHORE 1 point each way @ 10/1 ¼ 123 Bet365

 

 

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Two Cracking write ups 👍

Wasn't there a big Group 1 in Oz this morning ?

Good luck with tired horses on very testing ground at both Donny & Newbury , maybe worth laying Luxembourg in the Vertuem & at Cheltenham some horses will need the run & others will have bigger fish to fry throughout the season but Nigel Twiston Davies will have any of his well readied .

 

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1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Two Cracking write ups 👍

Wasn't there a big Group 1 in Oz this morning ?

Good luck with tired horses on very testing ground at both Donny & Newbury , maybe worth laying Luxembourg in the Vertuem & at Cheltenham some horses will need the run & others will have bigger fish to fry throughout the season but Nigel Twiston Davies will have any of his well readied .

 

Yep the manikato was on this morning although not a strong race given all the good 1200m horses ran in the Everest last week.

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Quickfire £50 place double today

3.15 doncaster royal patronage first three places @ 8/11

3.30 cheltenham sky pirate first two places @ 5/6  

returns 158 quid

good luck all

 

managed to get 10/11 and evens so returns just under £191 happy days

just got to come in now lol :)

 

Edited by NAGNAGNAGNEIGH
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Few bets for today, I've just used some free bets so can't boost the prices unfortunately (apart from. Moneyback bets) , there's actually some horses on same card but just think they have a chance, so hey ho. 

Money back singles

Newbury 1400 Noble Truth 11/10 bog (4 pl) 

Newbury 1435 Siskany 8/11 bog (2 pl) 

 

Treble - 16/1

Che 1345 Sammarive

Don 1515 Luxembourg

Che 1530 Before Midnight

 

Treble 50/1

Che 1420 STORM Control

Che 1530 Sky Pirate

Kel 1554 Curramore

 

Newbury Treble 123/11

325 Global Wisdom

1400 Dubai Poet

1435 Ilaraab

 

Also just added a small treble (19/1) from a ove horses that I think should come in

Sammarive, Luxembourg and Curramore. 

 

Good luck all. 

 

 

Edited by fd1972uk
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The Trevor Hemmings silks will be donned at both Cheltenham & Kelso today , would be fitting if both ran well & are capable .

O'Brien's string have been pretty dire by his own high standards , I'll take Luxembourg on with one that'll like the ground .

220 Cheltenham - Cloth Cap 17/2 

315 Doncaster - Imperial Fighter 9/1 

319 Kelso - Vintage Clouds 9/1 

Each Way Patent .

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Domaine de Lisle  2 20 chel    1/2  pt win   14/1 

Shoal Bay  2 20  chel    1/4  36/1  1/4  pt win   36/1 

Raising Sand   2 05  don  1/4 pt  win  18/1 

Lahore  4 20   don   1/2  pt  win   9/1 

Ebury   4 55 don  1/4  pt  win  14/1 

Data Protection  1/4  pt  win  24/1  

 

P/L  account now + 121 pts     after yesterdays  24/1   winner 

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Four I really fancy today....

12:23 Saint-Cloud Panthere 2/1 3pt win

15:19 Kelso Dingo Dollar 3/1 3pt win 

15:54 Kelso Curramore 2.5pt win 

16:29 Kelso Coolkill 4/1 3pt win

11.5pts staked 🍀

Panthere very very poor, got that one very wrong. 

Additional selection....

1545 Newbury Ching Shih 6/4 4pt win

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Two Trixies today and a couple of singles@

2.15 Leop Sir Antonio 5/4

2.44 Kel Lifeisahighway 2/1

3.50 Don Deoda 9/4 (£3 win at 5/2)

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return £45.74

3.30 Chelt Sky Pirate 3/1

4.35 Leop Rosmana 8/1 (£1 win at 8/1)

5.25 Newb Seventeen O Four 10/3

One 50p win Trixie = £2 poss return of £124.16

Total stakes today = £9.00

Good luck to all sailing today

 

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Two Trixies today and a couple of singles@

2.15 Leop Sir Antonio 5/4

2.44 Kel Lifeisahighway 2/1

3.50 Don Deoda 9/4 (£3 win at 5/2)

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return £45.74

3.30 Chelt Sky Pirate 3/1

4.35 Leop Rosmana 8/1 (£1 win at 8/1)

5.25 Newb Seventeen O Four 10/3

One 50p win Trixie = £2 poss return of £124.16

Total stakes today = £9.00

Good luck to all sailing today

 

 

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

No winners today, although it was quite amusing to see that Aiden O'Brien's runners got the better of his son's today in the first two races at Leopardstown, haha.  The loss today was £10 so my new balance is £785.14.  I'm a bit annoyed with myself for going against the forecast and at one time favourite Flaming Rib in the 3.50 at Doncaster.  We live and learn.

All jumps meetings tomorrow in the UK and Ireland.  Some class action at Aintree so should be interesting

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 10/23/2021 at 11:31 AM, MCLARKE said:

Flat selection

Leopardstown 5.10

BOUNDLESS OCEAN 5/2

A poor end to the season with a loss of 4.08 points in October. Overall though a very successful season with 56 winners from 158 selections (35% strike rate) and a LSP of 29.36 points (19% ROI).

These selections are picked from a variety of systems that I run, they are generally the 3rd lowest odds (the 1st and 2nd I often use for the nap and the £20 daily challenge).

I have been running 9 systems this flat season and overall they have shown a poor returm of -1% from 28,309 selections. The most successfull system is based on non handicaps. The worst system has been one based on quick returners with a ROI of -15%. The strike rate for those horses running within 9 days has fallen from 13.5% in 2018 to 11.0% in 2020. I think @ralphie7's quick system has also suffered because of this. Whether it is just a blip or a new trend we will see. 

For my selections I have tended to take the lowest forecast odds from my selections. However, my analysis of the season shows that those horses with forecast odds rank of 3 to 6 have performed best with a ROI of 4.2% from 12,870 selections. This is something I will bear in mind when I try to narrow down my selections.

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