Racing Chat - Saturday 16th October

[Hotspur88]

19 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +40.70pts

1300 Market Rasen Moonamacaroona 5/4 2.5pt win  Lost 2.5pts

1330 Leopardstown Villanova Queen 20/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) Won 26pts

1400 Ascot Kinross 11/1 1.5pts e/w (3pts total) Lost 3pts

1525 Ffos Las In Rem 50/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total) Won 31pts

1540 Catterick Count D'orsay 3/1 2pt win Lost 2pts

1550 Ascot Sealiway 14/1 1pt win Won 15pts

1555 Market Rasen Zamani 12/1 1pt win Lost 1pt

1640 Stratford Movethechains 2/1 2pt win

1700 Wolverhampton Makambe 14/1 1pt win

1715 Stratford Sammeo 7/2 2pt win

17.5pts staked.

 

 

24.5pts staked total.

Currently 72pts returned with three to run. 

[Hotspur88]

20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Looks like you've found a quality tipster.

Yes mate and now Sealiway wins 14/1. 

[Tedthewolf]

4.30  Ascot  my two e/w   6 places Sir Busker 12/1 Escobar 22/1 

[MCLARKE]

3 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Yes mate and now Sealiway wins 14/1. 

Excellent. And the price was available. I think I'll have a dabble myself.

[MCLARKE]

57 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

I'm interested in your working out here, so I will explain what I think you mean, just to see if I'm on the right track.

So you're talking about the draw bias, with 1-10 being biased, due to where the stalls are.  Right?

You're looking at the first 7 horses in the forecast, on Racing Post or somewhere, and you're using that to whittle then horse down again.

Not in top 12 in weights - not sure what you're doing here.  

What happened to Sir Busker?  You didn't mention him at the end......

What about Ran more than 25 days ago...?    I don't understand how this left you with Escobar and Nugget...?

Yep, the stats seem to indicate that low drawn horses are best.

I receive my data from a 3rd party and use their betting forecast, I think they source it from the Racing Post.

The racecard starts with the highest weights, so I only include the top 12 on the racecard.

I've excluded anything that ran more than 25 days ago because they have a record of 0 from 47, Sir Busker ran 31 days ago.

This is very much a work in progress, it is showing a small profit but the problem remains the small sample size. 

[MCLARKE]

35 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Without looking at the racecard I’d say he’s only looking at horses drawn 1-10 and eliminating any not in the 1st 7 in the betting, not in the top 12 in terms of weight and any that haven’t run in the last 25 days.

Spot on.

[alexcaruso808]

56 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep, the stats seem to indicate that low drawn horses are best.

I receive my data from a 3rd party and use their betting forecast, I think they source it from the Racing Post.

The racecard starts with the highest weights, so I only include the top 12 on the racecard.

I've excluded anything that ran more than 25 days ago because they have a record of 0 from 47, Sir Busker ran 31 days ago.

This is very much a work in progress, it is showing a small profit but the problem remains the small sample size. 

thanks mate, just had trouble getting my head around it at first.  ?.  

[Hotspur88]

21 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +40.70pts

1300 Market Rasen Moonamacaroona 5/4 2.5pt win  Lost 2.5pts

1330 Leopardstown Villanova Queen 20/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) Won 26pts

1400 Ascot Kinross 11/1 1.5pts e/w (3pts total) Lost 3pts

1525 Ffos Las In Rem 50/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total) Won 31pts

1540 Catterick Count D'orsay 3/1 2pt win Lost 2pts

1550 Ascot Sealiway 14/1 1pt win Won 15pts

1555 Market Rasen Zamani 12/1 1pt win Lost 1pt

1640 Stratford Movethechains 2/1 2pt win

1700 Wolverhampton Makambe 14/1 1pt win

1715 Stratford Sammeo 7/2 2pt win

17.5pts staked.

 

 

What a day! 

Profit of 47.5pts

New P/L = +88.2pts

Tonight's US coming next post ??

[Hotspur88]

1904 Keeneland Grand Sonata 9/4 2pt win Won 7pts

1926 Gulfstream Positive Review 11/4 2.5pt win Lost 2.5pts

2144 Keeneland Empress Josephine 3/1 1.5pt win Lost 1.5pts

2216 Keeneland Ducale 6/4 2pt win Won 5pts

2223 Belmont Park New York Dancer 7/2 2pt win Lost 2pts

10pts staked.

 

Edited October 16, 2021 by Hotspur88

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said:

thanks mate, just had trouble getting my head around it at first.  ?

No problem. The 1st 3 were drawn 11, 15 and 12, so much for that statistic. The 2 final selections finished 4th and 6th and quite a few bookies were paying 6 places so I suppose there was a bit of each way profit.

 

[alexcaruso808]

19 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

No problem. The 1st 3 were drawn 11, 15 and 12, so much for that statistic. The 2 final selections finished 4th and 6th and quite a few bookies were paying 6 places so I suppose there was a bit of each way profit.

 

Yes I got some profit on Nugget, thank you! ?

 

 

[Wildgarden]

56 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

1904 Keeneland Grand Sonata 9/4 2pt win Won 7pts

1926 Gulfstream Positive Review 11/4 2.5pt win

2144 Keeneland Empress Josephine 3/1 1.5pt win

2216 Keeneland Ducale 6/4 2pt win 

2223 Belmont Park New York Dancer 7/2 2pt win

10pts staked.

 

how u get ur picks hotspur without saying too much great start for coming back to forum

[Hotspur88]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

how u get ur picks hotspur without saying too much great start for coming back to forum

Not willing to share the tipping service mate. But as you can see, the P/L is very impressive. I've been passing on for free whilst I'm paying the sub fee since the 1st October but not sure how much longer I will be doing that. 

[Hotspur88]

3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

1904 Keeneland Grand Sonata 9/4 2pt win Won 7pts

1926 Gulfstream Positive Review 11/4 2.5pt win Lost 2.5pts

2144 Keeneland Empress Josephine 3/1 1.5pt win Lost 1.5pts

2216 Keeneland Ducale 6/4 2pt win Won 5pts

2223 Belmont Park New York Dancer 7/2 2pt win Lost 2pts

10pts staked.

 

10pts staked.

12pts returned.

+2pt profit for the evening. 

New P/L = +90.2pts

[Wildgarden]

59 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Not willing to share the tipping service mate. But as you can see, the P/L is very impressive. I've been passing on for free whilst I'm paying the sub fee since the 1st October but not sure how much longer I will be doing that. 

sorry i didnt read enough to realise was tipster service u follow lol. id keep subscribed if its that good long term. cheers for sharing had few winners with u so far adds up.

[The Equaliser]

22 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much time today and couldn't look at 5 year trainer records at each course, so gone with Big 3 selections and taken account of market movers in the win Trixie

2.45 M/R  Beyond The Clouds 11/8

5.40 Ffos Kayf Toai 11/8

7.00 Wolv Hasty Sailor 15/8

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £36.79

 

1.30 Leop Clemmie C 9/2

2.20 Str Masterdream 11/4

3.45 Leop Leo De Fury 11/2

One 50p ew Trixie = £4 = poss return of £116.11

Total stakes £8.00

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

No luck and zero return.  Loss of £8 means a new balance of £718.18 (Bank £1056.22)