Hotspur88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 19 hours ago, Hotspur88 said: P/L = +40.70pts 1300 Market Rasen Moonamacaroona 5/4 2.5pt win Lost 2.5pts 1330 Leopardstown Villanova Queen 20/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) Won 26pts 1400 Ascot Kinross 11/1 1.5pts e/w (3pts total) Lost 3pts 1525 Ffos Las In Rem 50/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total) Won 31pts 1540 Catterick Count D'orsay 3/1 2pt win Lost 2pts 1550 Ascot Sealiway 14/1 1pt win Won 15pts 1555 Market Rasen Zamani 12/1 1pt win Lost 1pt 1640 Stratford Movethechains 2/1 2pt win 1700 Wolverhampton Makambe 14/1 1pt win 1715 Stratford Sammeo 7/2 2pt win 17.5pts staked. 24.5pts staked total. Currently 72pts returned with three to run. Wildgarden and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Looks like you've found a quality tipster. Yes mate and now Sealiway wins 14/1. fd1972uk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 4.30 Ascot my two e/w 6 places Sir Busker 12/1 Escobar 22/1 alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said: Yes mate and now Sealiway wins 14/1. Excellent. And the price was available. I think I'll have a dabble myself. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 57 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said: I'm interested in your working out here, so I will explain what I think you mean, just to see if I'm on the right track. So you're talking about the draw bias, with 1-10 being biased, due to where the stalls are. Right? You're looking at the first 7 horses in the forecast, on Racing Post or somewhere, and you're using that to whittle then horse down again. Not in top 12 in weights - not sure what you're doing here. What happened to Sir Busker? You didn't mention him at the end...... What about Ran more than 25 days ago...? I don't understand how this left you with Escobar and Nugget...? Yep, the stats seem to indicate that low drawn horses are best. I receive my data from a 3rd party and use their betting forecast, I think they source it from the Racing Post. The racecard starts with the highest weights, so I only include the top 12 on the racecard. I've excluded anything that ran more than 25 days ago because they have a record of 0 from 47, Sir Busker ran 31 days ago. This is very much a work in progress, it is showing a small profit but the problem remains the small sample size. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 35 minutes ago, harry_rag said: Without looking at the racecard I’d say he’s only looking at horses drawn 1-10 and eliminating any not in the 1st 7 in the betting, not in the top 12 in terms of weight and any that haven’t run in the last 25 days. Spot on. harry_rag and alexcaruso808 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 56 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Yep, the stats seem to indicate that low drawn horses are best. I receive my data from a 3rd party and use their betting forecast, I think they source it from the Racing Post. The racecard starts with the highest weights, so I only include the top 12 on the racecard. I've excluded anything that ran more than 25 days ago because they have a record of 0 from 47, Sir Busker ran 31 days ago. This is very much a work in progress, it is showing a small profit but the problem remains the small sample size. thanks mate, just had trouble getting my head around it at first. ?. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 21 hours ago, Hotspur88 said: P/L = +40.70pts 1300 Market Rasen Moonamacaroona 5/4 2.5pt win Lost 2.5pts 1330 Leopardstown Villanova Queen 20/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) Won 26pts 1400 Ascot Kinross 11/1 1.5pts e/w (3pts total) Lost 3pts 1525 Ffos Las In Rem 50/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total) Won 31pts 1540 Catterick Count D'orsay 3/1 2pt win Lost 2pts 1550 Ascot Sealiway 14/1 1pt win Won 15pts 1555 Market Rasen Zamani 12/1 1pt win Lost 1pt 1640 Stratford Movethechains 2/1 2pt win 1700 Wolverhampton Makambe 14/1 1pt win 1715 Stratford Sammeo 7/2 2pt win 17.5pts staked. What a day! Profit of 47.5pts New P/L = +88.2pts Tonight's US coming next post ?? Wildgarden, alexcaruso808 and The Equaliser 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 (edited) 1904 Keeneland Grand Sonata 9/4 2pt win Won 7pts 1926 Gulfstream Positive Review 11/4 2.5pt win Lost 2.5pts 2144 Keeneland Empress Josephine 3/1 1.5pt win Lost 1.5pts 2216 Keeneland Ducale 6/4 2pt win Won 5pts 2223 Belmont Park New York Dancer 7/2 2pt win Lost 2pts 10pts staked. Edited October 16, 2021 by Hotspur88 alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, alexcaruso808 said: thanks mate, just had trouble getting my head around it at first. ? No problem. The 1st 3 were drawn 11, 15 and 12, so much for that statistic. The 2 final selections finished 4th and 6th and quite a few bookies were paying 6 places so I suppose there was a bit of each way profit. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexcaruso808 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: No problem. The 1st 3 were drawn 11, 15 and 12, so much for that statistic. The 2 final selections finished 4th and 6th and quite a few bookies were paying 6 places so I suppose there was a bit of each way profit. Yes I got some profit on Nugget, thank you! ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 56 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said: 1904 Keeneland Grand Sonata 9/4 2pt win Won 7pts 1926 Gulfstream Positive Review 11/4 2.5pt win 2144 Keeneland Empress Josephine 3/1 1.5pt win 2216 Keeneland Ducale 6/4 2pt win 2223 Belmont Park New York Dancer 7/2 2pt win 10pts staked. how u get ur picks hotspur without saying too much great start for coming back to forum alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Wildgarden said: how u get ur picks hotspur without saying too much great start for coming back to forum Not willing to share the tipping service mate. But as you can see, the P/L is very impressive. I've been passing on for free whilst I'm paying the sub fee since the 1st October but not sure how much longer I will be doing that. alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotspur88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said: 1904 Keeneland Grand Sonata 9/4 2pt win Won 7pts 1926 Gulfstream Positive Review 11/4 2.5pt win Lost 2.5pts 2144 Keeneland Empress Josephine 3/1 1.5pt win Lost 1.5pts 2216 Keeneland Ducale 6/4 2pt win Won 5pts 2223 Belmont Park New York Dancer 7/2 2pt win Lost 2pts 10pts staked. 10pts staked. 12pts returned. +2pt profit for the evening. New P/L = +90.2pts alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 59 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said: Not willing to share the tipping service mate. But as you can see, the P/L is very impressive. I've been passing on for free whilst I'm paying the sub fee since the 1st October but not sure how much longer I will be doing that. sorry i didnt read enough to realise was tipster service u follow lol. id keep subscribed if its that good long term. cheers for sharing had few winners with u so far adds up. alexcaruso808 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 22 hours ago, The Equaliser said: Not much time today and couldn't look at 5 year trainer records at each course, so gone with Big 3 selections and taken account of market movers in the win Trixie 2.45 M/R Beyond The Clouds 11/8 5.40 Ffos Kayf Toai 11/8 7.00 Wolv Hasty Sailor 15/8 One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £36.79 1.30 Leop Clemmie C 9/2 2.20 Str Masterdream 11/4 3.45 Leop Leo De Fury 11/2 One 50p ew Trixie = £4 = poss return of £116.11 Total stakes £8.00 RESULTS UPDATE No luck and zero return. Loss of £8 means a new balance of £718.18 (Bank £1056.22) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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