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Racing Chat - Thursday 14th October


Hotspur88
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11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

You can't have it both ways Michael; you either have faith that a better price enhances your value bet or you decide that the selection is no longer value and try to negate the loss by getting out at break even in-running.  I prefer to hold on to the faith that the wheels haven't come the horse and that it is still the same horse and should run its race.  Market moves are not always the right ones

I don't take any notice of the market moves, I back my selections well in advance of the race.

My point is (based on many years experience) that with these tipping services the only way you can profit is if you get on early.

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36 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I don't take any notice of the market moves, I back my selections well in advance of the race.

My point is (based on many years experience) that with these tipping services the only way you can profit is if you get on early.

Well, Ok but for a minute there I thought that you were suggesting that if a price on a horse shortens then it was a value bet and now isn't but if it lengthens then it is not worth backing

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19 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +51.45pts

1300 Tramore Young Fitzy 6/1 1pt win & She Is A Contender 15/2 1pt win

1445 Brighton Botanist 11/8 4pt win

1622 Tramore Sea Prince 20/1 1/2pt e/w (1pt total)

1720 Carlisle Limerick Leader 5/2 2pt win

9pts staked.

 

9pts staked.

7pts returned.

Two US tonight and will update P/L after those....

1911 Belmont Park Tingling Mint 7/4 2pt win

2216 Keeneland Fantasioso 9/4 2pt win

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2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well, Ok but for a minute there I thought that you were suggesting that if a price on a horse shortens then it was a value bet and now isn't but if it lengthens then it is not worth backing

To be fair, I am probably suggesting that in the case of tipsters selections. For the good tipsters the price will generally shorten until the value disappears.

@Hotspur88's tips have been very impressive and they may well still be value at shorter odds or BSP.

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4 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

9pts staked.

7pts returned.

Two US tonight and will update P/L after those....

1911 Belmont Park Tingling Mint 7/4 2pt win

2216 Keeneland Fantasioso 9/4 2pt win

Both drifted and both were very poor.

-6pt loss today. 

New P/L = +45.45pts

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19 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

No Trixie today as longer priced selections in competitive races

1.23 Carl Iolani £1 win at 13/2 (Bavingting Bob is a Big 3 selection so has to be respected)

1.55 Carl Slanelough £1 win at 4/1

2.55 Win Flying Verse £1 win at 6/1

3.30 win Harbour Force £1 win at 10/1

Total stakes = £4

Just a note on the 8.00 Chelms.  Montather is a Big 3 selection and looks to have a good chance, however, this looks to be a very competitive race and I don't think that anyone should go overboard on it.  I see that the racing press seems to indicate that Piece Of History could run very well.  I think that it would be most strange if Oisin Murphy picked the wrong stable horse to ride.

 

RESULTS UPDATE

All my bets lost so - £4 on the day.  My new balance is £730.18 (Bank £1056.22)

Will be looking to find less competitive races in the future

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