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Racing chat - Tuesday 12th October


Darran
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Been a while since I wrote an Australian flat racing preview and I will cover the Everest and Caulfield Cup this week, but first of all I am going to take a look at race 1 at Kyneton which is due off at 3.30am. A maiden at a country track wouldn't usually catch my attention, but I have a share in one of the horses running in the contest called Beneficio. I will get to her chances at the end and will take a look at the main rivals first.

Rioyuki is favourite and it is easy to see why. She finished 2nd in the same maiden at Kilmore that Beneficio finished 4th in and she found herself too far back and then couldn't get the clearest of runs in the straight before finishing well for 2nd place. The winner looked very good and the time was quick as well. She had shown promise on her first start back in May and she will win races. The one possible chink is that she might need a bit further, but she does look the one to beat.

Gloved made her debut in a Listed race back in March and then was 2nd on the all-weather back in August. I don't think that was an overly strong race though so I am happy enough to pass her over.

There are a couple who are having their 2nd runs after being spelled after their first runs who could improve for the break, but they need to so the other main rival for me is Little Schnitty. She has had 7 runs already and has finished 2nd twice over 1200m before being well beaten at Flemington last time. She flew home and just missed in the first of the 2nds and was then beaten by a massive priced outsider in the 2nd of them. That Flemington race was only a BM64 and there were only 6 runners, but the winner won a G3 next time so as you expect it was a strong race. She will surely get her head in front eventually, but I don't think it will be here. NB has now been scratched.

So to Beneficio. She has plenty of speed from the gate as she showed last time and also in her two trials prior to that first run. She had to get across from a wide draw a couple of weeks ago so had to use a bit of speed up early and she ended up settling in behind the winner. She kept trying and was only just caught for 3rd right on the line. Kilmore is uphill all the way in the home straight so it was no real surprise that she just faded a little late on. As I mention above I think it is going to prove to be a strong form race because the winner looked impressive and the winning time was nearly 6.5L quicker than standard. The trainer has reported that she has come on for that run and is fitter. What I really like about her is that she is a real trier and she will keep going which she did really well when winning her last trial. With the run under her belt and on a flatter track I hope that she will see out the trip better. I'm still not sure if that will be enough to hold of Rioyuki who is obviously going to be chasing her down late, but at the very least I think she rates a cracking e/w bet as I would be a bit disappointed if she didn't hit the frame. Worth adding as well that the stable is in really good form as he had 3 winners at Cranbourne on Friday night and one on Thursday. I will be backing her win and place with Bet365 and staking more on the place part of the bet. I will also be backing Rioyuki to win the race.

Rioyuki @ 6/4 with Betfred

Beneficio @ 9/1 win and 1.85/1 place with Bet365

 

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14 hours ago, Darran said:

Been a while since I wrote an Australian flat racing preview and I will cover the Everest and Caulfield Cup this week, but first of all I am going to take a look at race 1 at Kyneton which is due off at 3.30am. A maiden at a country track wouldn't usually catch my attention, but I have a share in one of the horses running in the contest called Beneficio. I will get to her chances at the end and will take a look at the main rivals first.

Rioyuki is favourite and it is easy to see why. She finished 2nd in the same maiden at Kilmore that Beneficio finished 4th in and she found herself too far back and then couldn't get the clearest of runs in the straight before finishing well for 2nd place. The winner looked very good and the time was quick as well. She had shown promise on her first start back in May and she will win races. The one possible chink is that she might need a bit further, but she does look the one to beat.

Gloved made her debut in a Listed race back in March and then was 2nd on the all-weather back in August. I don't think that was an overly strong race though so I am happy enough to pass her over.

There are a couple who are having their 2nd runs after being spelled after their first runs who could improve for the break, but they need to so the other main rival for me is Little Schnitty. She has had 7 runs already and has finished 2nd twice over 1200m before being well beaten at Flemington last time. She flew home and just missed in the first of the 2nds and was then beaten by a massive priced outsider in the 2nd of them. That Flemington race was only a BM64 and there were only 6 runners, but the winner won a G3 next time so as you expect it was a strong race. She will surely get her head in front eventually, but I don't think it will be here. NB has now been scratched.

So to Beneficio. She has plenty of speed from the gate as she showed last time and also in her two trials prior to that first run. She had to get across from a wide draw a couple of weeks ago so had to use a bit of speed up early and she ended up settling in behind the winner. She kept trying and was only just caught for 3rd right on the line. Kilmore is uphill all the way in the home straight so it was no real surprise that she just faded a little late on. As I mention above I think it is going to prove to be a strong form race because the winner looked impressive and the winning time was nearly 6.5L quicker than standard. The trainer has reported that she has come on for that run and is fitter. What I really like about her is that she is a real trier and she will keep going which she did really well when winning her last trial. With the run under her belt and on a flatter track I hope that she will see out the trip better. I'm still not sure if that will be enough to hold of Rioyuki who is obviously going to be chasing her down late, but at the very least I think she rates a cracking e/w bet as I would be a bit disappointed if she didn't hit the frame. Worth adding as well that the stable is in really good form as he had 3 winners at Cranbourne on Friday night and one on Thursday. I will be backing her win and place with Bet365 and staking more on the place part of the bet. I will also be backing Rioyuki to win the race.

Rioyuki @ 6/4 with Betfred

Beneficio @ 9/1 win and 1.85/1 place with Bet365

 

Well done mate! Not seen your name on here before. Do you tip much? Great shout with the top two, impressive! 

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Today I'm betting on all of William Buick's rides.  He wants to win the championship so bad that I heard he has been refusing rides because he doesn't think they are good enough to win.  He's riding every race, so I hope his fitness and stamina last the whole day.

 

Leicester

1.00 - Yukon Star - 9/2 - WIN - 8th 

1.30 - Parlando - 7/4 - WIN - 1st 

2.05 - Porsche Cavalier 7/4 - WIN - 2nd 

2.40 - Midgetonamission 9/2 - WIN - 2nd

3.15 - Maysong - evens - WIN - 3rd 

3.50 - Persuasion - 5/1 - WIN 5th

4.25 - Kentucky Kitten - 13/2 - WIN - 1st

4.55 - Rhythm n Rock - 7/2 - WIN - 1st

Good luck all, and good luck William.  

 

Now, tomorow I'm betting on all of William Buick and Oisin Murphy's rides.  

Edited by alexcaruso808
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  • Darran changed the title to Racing chat - Tuesday 12th October

Two doubles today and a few singles:

2.05 Leic (WB) Porsche Cavalier 2/1

3.58 Her Jubilympics 7/4

One £2 win double = £16.50 poss return

 

2.13 Her I'm On snap 7/2 (£1.30 win at 7/2)

4.40 Punch Lizlucky 4/1 (£1.20 win at 4/1)

One £2 win double = poss return £45.00

Other singles

3.50 Leic Persuasion (WB) £2 win at 7.00 = £11.76 profit if it wins AND £1 win at 11/2 Able Kane (OM) aboard.  Very tricky race

Total stakes = £9.50

 

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1 hour ago, Hotspur88 said:

1300 Leicester Knight Of Honour 9/1 2pt win (Info)

Wow! Best horse in the race and hasn't got up after being given far too much to do! What a terrible ride! So frustrating as that horse really should have won! **** ***

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2 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

1300 Leicester Knight Of Honour 9/1 2pt win (Info)

Miss McGugen backed into 11/8 just before the off and we thought we had got in early on a nice gamble but after looking like a promising run, it just faded the last few furlongs and was a distant 3rd. 

Need a couple of winners today ideally, it's been a tough day or so with quite a few losers. 

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6 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Today I'm betting on all of William Buick's rides.  He wants to win the championship so bad that I heard he has been refusing rides because he doesn't think they are good enough to win.  He's riding every race, so I hope his fitness and stamina last the whole day.

 

Leicester

1.00 - Yukon Star - 9/2 - WIN

1.30 - Parlando - 7/4 - WIN

2.05 - Porsche Cavalier 7/4 - WIN

2.40 - Midgetonamission 9/2 - WIN

3.15 - Maysong - evens - WIN

3.50 - Persuasion - 5/1 - WIN

4.25 - Kentucky Kitten - 13/2 - WIN

4.55 - Rhythm n Rock - 7/2 - WIN

 

Good luck all, and good luck William.  

Glad you got the last two winners Alex

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11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Two doubles today and a few singles:

2.05 Leic (WB) Porsche Cavalier 2/1

3.58 Her Jubilympics 7/4

One £2 win double = £16.50 poss return

 

2.13 Her I'm On snap 7/2 (£1.30 win at 7/2)

4.40 Punch Lizlucky 4/1 (£1.20 win at 4/1)

One £2 win double = poss return £45.00

Other singles

3.50 Leic Persuasion (WB) £2 win at 7.00 = £11.76 profit if it wins AND £1 win at 11/2 Able Kane (OM) aboard.  Very tricky race

Total stakes = £9.50

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only two winners today but at least I got good prices and therefore made a profit of £3.50.  My new balance is £703.30 (Bank £1056.22)

38 races tomorrow.  There are 9 races which are class 3 or above.  I'm not sure how to judge quality racing in Ireland as they don't seem to have the class system that we use.  Anyway I chose two grade 3 races to look at. There is a class 1 race in the 4.15 at Bath.  14 runners with supposed question marks over the first two in the betting.

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8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well done but I don't understand +29.1 pts.  I realise that Pocket The profit won but must have missed something else

That's my running P/L sorry mate. If you see my posts above I had a loss of 5pts yesterday and that is my updated P/L minus the 5pts lost overall. I should have made that clearer. 

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