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Racing Chat - Saturday 9th October


The Brigadier
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We’re getting towards the end of the flat season now and Saturday’s racing very much has an end of season feel. The ground is drying but good at Newmarket and similarly drying but softer at York. Here’s my thoughts on the 7 ITV races :-

 

Newmarket 1.45

The 10F Zetland Stakes is a Group 3 contest for two year olds and has attracted a field of nine this year. Aidan O’Brien runs Bluegrass - a winner of A Curragh maiden in August and although stepping up in grade here shouldn’t be totally dismissed. His son Donnacha saddles Unconquerable who defied his 33/1 odds when finishing 3rd in the Royal Lodge over a mile a fortnight ago and should appreciate the step up in trip. He too has a chance but both may struggle to beat the Godolphin first string Hafit who cost a mere 2.1 million as a yearling. A winner on his debut on the July course he stepped up on that run when chasing home a well thought of Kevin Ryan trained colt at Haydock a month ago. He’ll appreciate the step up to 10F today and the reports are that he went clear of his stable mate and rival today Goldspur in a gallop earlier this week. William Buick has chosen him here and he has a big chance. 

HAFIT 3 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

York 2.02

The 6F Rockingham Stakes is a listed race for two year olds run over 6F and has quite an open looks about it this year. Officially the best in are George Boughey’s Hellomydarlin and William Haggas’s Canonized. Both have had plenty of racing this season and it may pay to look beyond the pair and find something that may be more progressive. That one maybe Richard Hannon’s Witch Hunter who was unlucky not take the scalp of the 101 rated Ribhi at Salisbury last time when he was denied a clear run inside the final furlong. A reproduction of that run would put him in back in contention with the two aforementioned 100 rated horses and he maybe the value bet small each way. 

WITCH HUNTER 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.20

Charlie Appleby could be in for a big day with his juveniles at Newmarket today and his Coroebus will be hard to beat in this Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes run over a mile. He was matched for plenty at 1.01 when scooting clear with a couple to run in the Royal Lodge a fortnight ago over course and distance but was reeled in late on by Royal Patronage who got up in the final stride. He’ll no doubt be ridden with a bit more restraint by William Buick today but remains an exciting prospect and is the most likings winner here. Aidan O’Brien can never be dismissed in these races and he saddles three here with the pick being United Nations, a Naas maiden winner who is the pick of Ryan Moore. A lively outsider who is held in high esteem and worked well apparently in the week is the Frankie Dettori ridden Dirtyoldtown who I’m told won’t disgrace himself but this should be going to Coroebus. 

COROEBUS 3 points win @ 4/5 William Hills

 

York 2.37

11 go to post for this 10F class 2 handicap with the likely favourite Bay Bridge trained by Sir Michael Stoute coming here on the back of a 147 day break and a 15lb rise in the weights. He looks worth taking on despite his connections. Second in is the John and Thady Gosden trained Faisal who’s latest form behind Cambridgeshire runner up Anmaat looks decent form now. The problem with him is he’s only raced on fast or artificial surfaces and there’s little soft ground form in his bloodline as well. I’m interested in the Roger Fell trained Cockalorum who’s disappointing effort at Ayr last time can be put down to the fast ground and the fact that this habitual front runner wasn’t able to lead. He had previously been a model of consistency hitting the frame in decent handicaps at Goodwood and twice here in the John Smiths Cup and Skybet Handicap off of the same mark as today’s. I’ll be backing him each way. 

COCKALORUM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.55

This years Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has attracted a field of 8 with another Charlie Appleby/William Buick favourite in Native Trail who will be hard to beat and could easily be the last leg of a winning Godolphin treble in the three Group two year old races today. He looked special when shooting 3 1/2L clear of his field headed by the previously unbeaten Point Lonsdale in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh last month and with conditions to suit should confirm himself as the best two year old colt around by winning this. Ger Lyons sends over his Kodiac colt Straight Answer who is unbeaten in two starts and has to be respected although this is a big step up from listed company to Group 1 whilst Roger Varian saddles Bayside Bay who impressed when beating Reach For The Moon in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last time at Doncaster and appeals as the biggest danger.  I can’t resist a small each way play though on the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who was so impressive on his debut at Doncaster and although disappointing subsequently in the Acomb was found to be wrong after that run and at a big price I will back him small each way though the favourite as stated earlier will be tough to beat. 

DUBAWI LEGEND 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5 123 Paddy Power

 

York 3.15

A maximum field of 22 go to post for this 6F sprint handicap which as one could imagine at this time of year is wide open. Gulliver has won the last two renewals and if stall 21 doesn’t hinder his chances should be thereabouts whilst York special Copper Knight has obvious claims along with Mondammej who’s form ties in together. I like Jedd O’Keefe’s Air Raid at a big price here. It can’t be soft enough for him so a shower or two wouldn’t go amiss to be honest but he’s fallen back onto his last winning mark and has had wind surgery since we last saw him. I think he’s worth chancing at a big price. 

AIR RAID 1 point each way @ 33/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newmarket 3.35

A maximum turnout of 34 go to post for this famous handicap The Cesarewitch which is famous for starting in one county and finishing in another. Willie Mullins has won the last three renewals and saddles five including last year’s winner Great White Shark who has to race here off of a 10lb higher mark and doesn’t come into the race in the same form as last year. Likely favourite is M C Muldoon who was an unlucky loser of the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and although 4lb higher stays well and has the assistance of Ryan Moore. He should be on anyone’s short list, as should the Nicky Henderson trained Buzz. He’s a very interesting runner who hasn’t been seen on the flat since September 2019 when trained by Hughie Morrison. He’s had a highly successful national Hunt career since with Henderson and has steadily risen through the ranks to warrant being called a serious Champion Hurdle contender with an official mark of 155. He has been away to Newbury for a racecourse gallop and Henderson has done well in this race before. He looks a very well handicapped horse and if he stays (he actually only ran up to 1m 4F on the flat when with Morrison) he should run a big race under Oisin Murphy from stall 3. The draw is interesting as the last three winners have all exited from a high number but I have always favoured a low number as there is a dog leg turn after a couple of furlongs which if forced wide can add yardage onto your journey. Buzz will be my main play although I can’t resist a small each way bet on the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Live Your Dream who did us a favour when winning in the Summer on the July course. He bumped into a plot horse of Charlie Byrne’s in Turnpike Trip in the Cesarewitch trial last time over course and distance finishing an honourable 2L runner up with daylight back to the remainder. He can race off of the same handicap mark here despite being put up 4lb by the assessor making him the best handicapped horse in the field. The icing on the cake is the booking of young apprentice Adam Farragher who is attached to the William Haggas stable and scored a remarkable four timer at Chester last Saturday on his first visit there. He has to come out of stall 35 so I’m happy to have one drawn high and one drawn low. 

BUZZ 2 points each way @ 17/2 1/5th 1234567 William Hill

LIVE YOUR DREAM 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 1234567 Paddy Power

 

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Thoughts on the 2yo group races tomorrow

133 chantilly             Bastogne

250 chantilly             Dizzy Bizu

145 NewM                Gold Spur

220 NewM                ???? (too open no bet for me)

255 NewM                Straight Answer (my highest speed figure of the year) the current 6/1 is far too big a price.

202 York                   ???? (too open no bet for me)

Additional observation-the Cesaravitch i have watched Burning Victory cruise to two wins over trips in France this year and was very impressed but as always with Mullins there are too may options although i think this is his best chance, (laid out)? I don't like the prices on this race at the moment, the bookies are giving nothing, in fact they are extracting the urine with this book.

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P/L = +21.1pts

1402 York Witch Hunter 5/1 2pt win

1425 Chepstow Court Master 11/1 1.5pt win

1505 Fairyhouse Glan 2/1 2pt win

1515 York Gulliver 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) (free 1pt bet staked as part of the bet so only 1pt of bank staked) *paying 6 places

1530 Chepstow Glory & Honour 14/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

1535 Newmarket Foveros 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total), Platform Nineteen 18/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) & Takarengo 33/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 7 places

1635 Limerick Spanish Tenor 8/1 1pt win

1700 York Last Look 20/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

****The group have staked 16.5pts today with 1pt e/w on Last Look & 1pt e/w on Takarengo the missing points on the selections above. I have halved staked on both those selections because of the odds and I know that might bite me in the arse at some point, but so far I've reduced stakes on only losing horses at big odds. The group have also gone a straight win on Glory & Honour but I've backed it 0.5pts e/w as you can see above. Last Saturday was day two of the service and we staked and lost 17pts so I'm trying to be a bit more sensible on what is notoriously known as the trickiest racing day. I asked the group if anyone had tracked Saturday selections since the beginning of the group and they had and they were in profit for a Saturday overall. But they said Saturday's have been the most rewarding and most damaging to the P/L. Anyway, hopefully this Saturday is more fruitful. 

13.5pts staked 🍀🍀🍀

 

Edited by Hotspur88
1505 Fairyhouse Glan Selection Added.
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9 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Thoughts on the 2yo group races tomorrow

133 chantilly             Bastogne

250 chantilly             Dizzy Bizu

145 NewM                Gold Spur

220 NewM                ???? (too open no bet for me)

255 NewM                Straight Answer (my highest speed figure of the year) the current 6/1 is far too big a price.

202 York                   ???? (too open no bet for me)

Additional observation-the Cesaravitch i have watched Burning Victory cruise to two wins over trips in France this year and was very impressed but as always with Mullins there are too may options although i think this is his best chance, (laid out)? I don't like the prices on this race at the moment, the bookies are giving nothing, in fact they are extracting the urine with this book.

Am with you on GOLDSPUR good win over 8f on soft @ Newbury so today's extra 2f on faster surface should suit , Appleby / Doyle have good % stats when teaming up I remember hearing .

Can't see anything getting by 122 rated & Timeforms top rated 2 year old in the Dewhurst NATIVE TRAIL , despite being supplemened for £32k Straight Answers sectionals have came at 6 & not 7f & with a tough uphill finish today , 1 who could challenge the odds on favourite could be GLOUNTHUANE ,off track for 175 days since Curragh win over 6f on good , A.P.O'Brien has won 5 last 8 renewals of this race .

With regards to BURNING VICTORY see Wednesdays thread & some of us got 12's with 54 still entered , good chance of each way money in what is a lottery race .

W.Mullins 1,2,3 is 20/1 with Ladbrokes / Corals , not for me !

Good luck with your bets for the day 🤞

 

 

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Done quite a few bets today, quite a few free bets included too. 

Singles

1345 New Hafit (3) / Goldspur (4) - moneyback offer

1402 Yor Canonized (2) - moneyback offer

Few of the horses caught my eye at York, so used some freebies and hope ones comes off as their odds are decent. 

1515 Yor - Laugh a Minute / Commanche Falls / Copper Knight

1610 Yor Gale Force Maya

1625 Yor Midraar

 

Ew Treble

1437 Yor Dark Jedi (4)

1515 Yor Commanche Falls (6)

1535 New Live Your Dream (7)

Good luck all. 

 

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3.15 york Up to 7 place being paid out in this my two e/w against the field  are 25/1 shotsc SNAZZY JAZZY & MR LUPTON

3.35  newmarket Up to 8 places here i think 10/1 shot LIVE THE DREAM will be hard to beat e/w shots ELYSIAN FLAME 20/1 & 50/1 RESHOUN would be my outsiders worthy of  a few quid.

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My Trixie today is:

2.10 Hex Real Armani 5/2

4.55 Chelm Crocodile Power 15/8

7.00 Chelm Crimson Sand 3/1

One £1 win Trixie = £4.00 poss return £75.81

Singles:

3.35 Nm Live Your Dream £1 win at 9/1

4.45 Nm Barney ROy £2 win at 5.1 = £8.04 profit if it wins

5.30 Chelm Brazilean Beach £1 win at 6/1

6.30 Chelm Fox Leicester £2 win at 9/2

Total stakes £10.00

 

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Hexham
1.00 Animore 3/1

2.10 Real Armani 2/1

3.20 Sounds Russian 15/8

3.55 Graystown 9/2


Chepstow
2.25 Exelerator Express 4/1

3.30 Proschema 5/1


York
2.37 Bay Bridge 5/2

3.50 Speranzoso 100/30

4.25 Eagle Court 11/2

5.00 Tarroob 15/2


Chelmsford City
7.00 Crimson Sand 5/2

7.30 Vincenzo Coccotti 100/30

8.30 Global Art 11/2

Good luck all CNBB.

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41 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Am with you on GOLDSPUR good win over 8f on soft @ Newbury so today's extra 2f on faster surface should suit , Appleby / Doyle have good % stats when teaming up I remember hearing .

Can't see anything getting by 122 rated & Timeforms top rated 2 year old in the Dewhurst NATIVE TRAIL , despite being supplemened for £32k Straight Answers sectionals have came at 6 & not 7f & with a tough uphill finish today , 1 who could challenge the odds on favourite could be GLOUNTHUANE ,off track for 175 days since Curragh win over 6f on good , A.P.O'Brien has won 5 last 8 renewals of this race .

With regards to BURNING VICTORY see Wednesdays thread & some of us got 12's with 54 still entered , good chance of each way money in what is a lottery race .

W.Mullins 1,2,3 is 20/1 with Ladbrokes / Corals , not for me !

Good luck with your bets for the day 🤞

 

 

 

 

Good points you make @calva decoyThe Dewhurst is quite an interesting race and for me typical of overhype i notice topspeed in the RP have Native trail at 30points better than Straight answers so will beat it by around 7 lengths so it will be interesting but the biggie for me was the 8/11 v  6/1 in an 8 horse race? but i am not generally an EW backer. I also looked at the overall season and i really wouldnt be surprised if Berkshshire shadow and go bears go finished 1st and 2nd i can certainly see a shocker of a result, Now having said all that watch native trail win by a country mile.🤣😂 again looking at the season overall it appears that O'Brien is on the wain although tenebrism on the evidence of 2 races looks tasty on the surface of things my suspicion is that it may have been a freak result due to that days severe bias, time will tell.

I didnt see weds thread on burning victory but it owes me nothing due to its 2 runs in france that really were or appeared to be quite impressive I backed it at big prices for one of the big staying races (i think the gold cup) but managed to cash out in time based on listening to a Mullins interview where he never mentioned it although it was declared.

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5 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +21.1pts

1402 York Witch Hunter 5/1 2pt win

1425 Chepstow Court Master 11/1 1.5pt win

1505 Fairyhouse Glan 2/1 2pt win

1515 York Gulliver 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) (free 1pt bet included so only 1pt of my bank staked) *paying 6 places

1530 Chepstow Glory & Honour 14/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

1535 Newmarket Foveros 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total), Platform Nineteen 18/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) & Takarengo 33/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 7 places

1635 Limerick Spanish Tenor 8/1 1pt win

1700 York Last Look 20/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

****The group have staked 16.5pts today with 1pt e/w on Last Look & 1pt e/w on Takarengo the missing points on the selections above. I have halved staked on both those selections because of the odds and I know that might bite me in the arse at some point, but so far I've reduced stakes on only losing horses at big odds. The group have also gone a straight win on Glory & Honour but I've backed it 0.5pts e/w as you can see above. Last Saturday was day two of the service and we staked and lost 17pts so I'm trying to be a bit more sensible on what is notoriously known as the trickiest racing day. I asked the group if anyone had tracked Saturday selections since the beginning of the group and they had and they were in profit for a Saturday overall. But they said Saturday's have been the most rewarding and most damaging to the P/L. Anyway, hopefully this Saturday is more fruitful. 

13.5pts staked 🍀🍀🍀

 

All selections now done.

Edited by Hotspur88
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Trends for the Cambridgeshire.

Top 22 in weights 2 / 150, remainder 5 / 81.

UK bred 5 / 108.

This cuts the field down from 33 to 3, DANCE TO PARIS, PUTTING GREEN, MANCINI.

Drawn 1 to 12, 1 / 78. This removes PUTTING GREEN.

This leaves DANCING TO PASS and MANCINI, both available at 100/1. However, they both fail the 4th test, in that those drawn 25 and above a record of 0 / 73.

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7 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +21.1pts

1402 York Witch Hunter 5/1 2pt win

1425 Chepstow Court Master 11/1 1.5pt win

1505 Fairyhouse Glan 2/1 2pt win

1515 York Gulliver 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) (free 1pt bet staked as part of the bet so only 1pt of bank staked) *paying 6 places

1530 Chepstow Glory & Honour 14/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

1535 Newmarket Foveros 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total), Platform Nineteen 18/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) & Takarengo 33/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 7 places

1635 Limerick Spanish Tenor 8/1 1pt win

1700 York Last Look 20/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

****The group have staked 16.5pts today with 1pt e/w on Last Look & 1pt e/w on Takarengo the missing points on the selections above. I have halved staked on both those selections because of the odds and I know that might bite me in the arse at some point, but so far I've reduced stakes on only losing horses at big odds. The group have also gone a straight win on Glory & Honour but I've backed it 0.5pts e/w as you can see above. Last Saturday was day two of the service and we staked and lost 17pts so I'm trying to be a bit more sensible on what is notoriously known as the trickiest racing day. I asked the group if anyone had tracked Saturday selections since the beginning of the group and they had and they were in profit for a Saturday overall. But they said Saturday's have been the most rewarding and most damaging to the P/L. Anyway, hopefully this Saturday is more fruitful. 

13.5pts staked 🍀🍀🍀

 

Frustrating start as Witch Hunter who ran a blinder and looked the winner all over finishes 2nd. Thought on three occasions we were just going to go past Canonized  but I feel TM won that race and DO'N was too soft in the saddle. 

Went off 11/2 as well so would have returned an 11pt profit 😭

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7 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +21.1pts

1402 York Witch Hunter 5/1 2pt win

1425 Chepstow Court Master 11/1 1.5pt win

1505 Fairyhouse Glan 2/1 2pt win

1515 York Gulliver 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) (free 1pt bet staked as part of the bet so only 1pt of bank staked) *paying 6 places

1530 Chepstow Glory & Honour 14/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

1535 Newmarket Foveros 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total), Platform Nineteen 18/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) & Takarengo 33/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 7 places

1635 Limerick Spanish Tenor 8/1 1pt win

1700 York Last Look 20/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

****The group have staked 16.5pts today with 1pt e/w on Last Look & 1pt e/w on Takarengo the missing points on the selections above. I have halved staked on both those selections because of the odds and I know that might bite me in the arse at some point, but so far I've reduced stakes on only losing horses at big odds. The group have also gone a straight win on Glory & Honour but I've backed it 0.5pts e/w as you can see above. Last Saturday was day two of the service and we staked and lost 17pts so I'm trying to be a bit more sensible on what is notoriously known as the trickiest racing day. I asked the group if anyone had tracked Saturday selections since the beginning of the group and they had and they were in profit for a Saturday overall. But they said Saturday's have been the most rewarding and most damaging to the P/L. Anyway, hopefully this Saturday is more fruitful. 

13.5pts staked 🍀🍀🍀

 

Completely forgot I put a bet on the other day which runs today....

1437 York Bay Bridge 5/2 3pt win

Risky as has had a long break, but if ready I just can't see it not winning. It's a group horse to me and if firing, should blow this lot away.

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25 minutes ago, Hotspur88 said:

Completely forgot I put a bet on the other day which runs today....

1437 York Bay Bridge 5/2 3pt win

Risky as has had a long break, but if ready I just can't see it not winning. It's a group horse to me and if firing, should blow this lot away.

Get in! Bay Bridge wins 5/2 to return 10.5pts for a 7.5pt profit.

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2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Good points you make @calva decoyThe Dewhurst is quite an interesting race and for me typical of overhype i notice topspeed in the RP have Native trail at 30points better than Straight answers so will beat it by around 7 lengths so it will be interesting but the biggie for me was the 8/11 v  6/1 in an 8 horse race? but i am not generally an EW backer. I also looked at the overall season and i really wouldnt be surprised if Berkshshire shadow and go bears go finished 1st and 2nd i can certainly see a shocker of a result, Now having said all that watch native trail win by a country mile.🤣😂 again looking at the season overall it appears that O'Brien is on the wain although tenebrism on the evidence of 2 races looks tasty on the surface of things my suspicion is that it may have been a freak result due to that days severe bias, time will tell.

I didnt see weds thread on burning victory but it owes me nothing due to its 2 runs in france that really were or appeared to be quite impressive I backed it at big prices for one of the big staying races (i think the gold cup) but managed to cash out in time based on listening to a Mullins interview where he never mentioned it although it was declared.

Fair play calva straight answer didnt stay and for me i conclude that the irish are struggling to find class 2yo horses this year. native trail popped the hype bubble and looks the part.

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19 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

We’re getting towards the end of the flat season now and Saturday’s racing very much has an end of season feel. The ground is drying but good at Newmarket and similarly drying but softer at York. Here’s my thoughts on the 7 ITV races :-

 

Newmarket 1.45

The 10F Zetland Stakes is a Group 3 contest for two year olds and has attracted a field of nine this year. Aidan O’Brien runs Bluegrass - a winner of A Curragh maiden in August and although stepping up in grade here shouldn’t be totally dismissed. His son Donnacha saddles Unconquerable who defied his 33/1 odds when finishing 3rd in the Royal Lodge over a mile a fortnight ago and should appreciate the step up in trip. He too has a chance but both may struggle to beat the Godolphin first string Hafit who cost a mere 2.1 million as a yearling. A winner on his debut on the July course he stepped up on that run when chasing home a well thought of Kevin Ryan trained colt at Haydock a month ago. He’ll appreciate the step up to 10F today and the reports are that he went clear of his stable mate and rival today Goldspur in a gallop earlier this week. William Buick has chosen him here and he has a big chance. 

HAFIT 3 points win @ 2/1 Bet365

 

York 2.02

The 6F Rockingham Stakes is a listed race for two year olds run over 6F and has quite an open looks about it this year. Officially the best in are George Boughey’s Hellomydarlin and William Haggas’s Canonized. Both have had plenty of racing this season and it may pay to look beyond the pair and find something that may be more progressive. That one maybe Richard Hannon’s Witch Hunter who was unlucky not take the scalp of the 101 rated Ribhi at Salisbury last time when he was denied a clear run inside the final furlong. A reproduction of that run would put him in back in contention with the two aforementioned 100 rated horses and he maybe the value bet small each way. 

WITCH HUNTER 1 point each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.20

Charlie Appleby could be in for a big day with his juveniles at Newmarket today and his Coroebus will be hard to beat in this Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes run over a mile. He was matched for plenty at 1.01 when scooting clear with a couple to run in the Royal Lodge a fortnight ago over course and distance but was reeled in late on by Royal Patronage who got up in the final stride. He’ll no doubt be ridden with a bit more restraint by William Buick today but remains an exciting prospect and is the most likings winner here. Aidan O’Brien can never be dismissed in these races and he saddles three here with the pick being United Nations, a Naas maiden winner who is the pick of Ryan Moore. A lively outsider who is held in high esteem and worked well apparently in the week is the Frankie Dettori ridden Dirtyoldtown who I’m told won’t disgrace himself but this should be going to Coroebus. 

COROEBUS 3 points win @ 4/5 William Hills

 

York 2.37

11 go to post for this 10F class 2 handicap with the likely favourite Bay Bridge trained by Sir Michael Stoute coming here on the back of a 147 day break and a 15lb rise in the weights. He looks worth taking on despite his connections. Second in is the John and Thady Gosden trained Faisal who’s latest form behind Cambridgeshire runner up Anmaat looks decent form now. The problem with him is he’s only raced on fast or artificial surfaces and there’s little soft ground form in his bloodline as well. I’m interested in the Roger Fell trained Cockalorum who’s disappointing effort at Ayr last time can be put down to the fast ground and the fact that this habitual front runner wasn’t able to lead. He had previously been a model of consistency hitting the frame in decent handicaps at Goodwood and twice here in the John Smiths Cup and Skybet Handicap off of the same mark as today’s. I’ll be backing him each way. 

COCKALORUM 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

Newmarket 2.55

This years Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes has attracted a field of 8 with another Charlie Appleby/William Buick favourite in Native Trail who will be hard to beat and could easily be the last leg of a winning Godolphin treble in the three Group two year old races today. He looked special when shooting 3 1/2L clear of his field headed by the previously unbeaten Point Lonsdale in the Group 1 National Stakes at the Curragh last month and with conditions to suit should confirm himself as the best two year old colt around by winning this. Ger Lyons sends over his Kodiac colt Straight Answer who is unbeaten in two starts and has to be respected although this is a big step up from listed company to Group 1 whilst Roger Varian saddles Bayside Bay who impressed when beating Reach For The Moon in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last time at Doncaster and appeals as the biggest danger.  I can’t resist a small each way play though on the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who was so impressive on his debut at Doncaster and although disappointing subsequently in the Acomb was found to be wrong after that run and at a big price I will back him small each way though the favourite as stated earlier will be tough to beat. 

DUBAWI LEGEND 1/2 point each way @ 16/1 1/5 123 Paddy Power

 

York 3.15

A maximum field of 22 go to post for this 6F sprint handicap which as one could imagine at this time of year is wide open. Gulliver has won the last two renewals and if stall 21 doesn’t hinder his chances should be thereabouts whilst York special Copper Knight has obvious claims along with Mondammej who’s form ties in together. I like Jedd O’Keefe’s Air Raid at a big price here. It can’t be soft enough for him so a shower or two wouldn’t go amiss to be honest but he’s fallen back onto his last winning mark and has had wind surgery since we last saw him. I think he’s worth chancing at a big price. 

AIR RAID 1 point each way @ 33/1 1/5th 123456 Paddy Power

 

Newmarket 3.35

A maximum turnout of 34 go to post for this famous handicap The Cesarewitch which is famous for starting in one county and finishing in another. Willie Mullins has won the last three renewals and saddles five including last year’s winner Great White Shark who has to race here off of a 10lb higher mark and doesn’t come into the race in the same form as last year. Likely favourite is M C Muldoon who was an unlucky loser of the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting and although 4lb higher stays well and has the assistance of Ryan Moore. He should be on anyone’s short list, as should the Nicky Henderson trained Buzz. He’s a very interesting runner who hasn’t been seen on the flat since September 2019 when trained by Hughie Morrison. He’s had a highly successful national Hunt career since with Henderson and has steadily risen through the ranks to warrant being called a serious Champion Hurdle contender with an official mark of 155. He has been away to Newbury for a racecourse gallop and Henderson has done well in this race before. He looks a very well handicapped horse and if he stays (he actually only ran up to 1m 4F on the flat when with Morrison) he should run a big race under Oisin Murphy from stall 3. The draw is interesting as the last three winners have all exited from a high number but I have always favoured a low number as there is a dog leg turn after a couple of furlongs which if forced wide can add yardage onto your journey. Buzz will be my main play although I can’t resist a small each way bet on the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Live Your Dream who did us a favour when winning in the Summer on the July course. He bumped into a plot horse of Charlie Byrne’s in Turnpike Trip in the Cesarewitch trial last time over course and distance finishing an honourable 2L runner up with daylight back to the remainder. He can race off of the same handicap mark here despite being put up 4lb by the assessor making him the best handicapped horse in the field. The icing on the cake is the booking of young apprentice Adam Farragher who is attached to the William Haggas stable and scored a remarkable four timer at Chester last Saturday on his first visit there. He has to come out of stall 35 so I’m happy to have one drawn high and one drawn low. 

BUZZ 2 points each way @ 17/2 1/5th 1234567 William Hill

LIVE YOUR DREAM 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th 1234567 Paddy Power

 

A decent day with a final points profit of just over 20 points.

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Quick update, putting US Selections up now and will sort P/L out later as I'm really busy currently....

1809 Belmont Park Gun Boat 9/4 2pt win

2047 Belmont Park Channel Maker 12/1 1pt win

2136 Woodbine Kanta 9/4 2pt win

2204 Santa Anita Kazuhiko 15/8 3pt win

Might be a few more, not sure yet. 

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12 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

P/L = +21.1pts

1402 York Witch Hunter 5/1 2pt win

1425 Chepstow Court Master 11/1 1.5pt win

1505 Fairyhouse Glan 2/1 2pt win

1515 York Gulliver 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total) (free 1pt bet staked as part of the bet so only 1pt of bank staked) *paying 6 places

1530 Chepstow Glory & Honour 14/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

1535 Newmarket Foveros 10/1 1pt e/w (2pts total), Platform Nineteen 18/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) & Takarengo 33/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 7 places

1635 Limerick Spanish Tenor 8/1 1pt win

1700 York Last Look 20/1 0.5pts e/w (1pt total) *paying 5 places

****The group have staked 16.5pts today with 1pt e/w on Last Look & 1pt e/w on Takarengo the missing points on the selections above. I have halved staked on both those selections because of the odds and I know that might bite me in the arse at some point, but so far I've reduced stakes on only losing horses at big odds. The group have also gone a straight win on Glory & Honour but I've backed it 0.5pts e/w as you can see above. Last Saturday was day two of the service and we staked and lost 17pts so I'm trying to be a bit more sensible on what is notoriously known as the trickiest racing day. I asked the group if anyone had tracked Saturday selections since the beginning of the group and they had and they were in profit for a Saturday overall. But they said Saturday's have been the most rewarding and most damaging to the P/L. Anyway, hopefully this Saturday is more fruitful. 

13.5pts staked 🍀🍀🍀

 

16.5pts staked including the 3pt stake on Bay Bridge. 

19.5pts returned between Bay Bridge (10.5pt return including stake), Glan (6.5pt return including stake) & Last Look (2.5pt return including stake).

So it's currently a +3pt gain for the day with the new P/L at +24.1pts.

We have 8pts staked tonight on the US Racing with the first horse finishing 2nd, beating the red hot fav but being beaten by a decent looking newcomer. So we're currently 2pts down tonight with three left to run. Will be one more US Selection tonight which will go up soon.

Edited by Hotspur88
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