Racing-Chat Sunday 3rd October

[Hotspur88]

I've made a mess up with the pts as well. I backed Kinross 1pt e/w 4 places not a 2pt win. I am recording it as what I have bet as otherwise my P/L won't be correct. 

[Hotspur88]

9 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Current P/L = -16.5pts

Terrible day yesterday with a 17pt loss. Lost a place double last night but also won a nice 3pt win on Trueshan but I'm not counting them in my P/L as I'm just tracking the new group I'm in. Something I forgot to mention was the guy works on a 1-5pt system. 

4 selections today, hopefully I can start reducing that deficit....

1540 Kelso Nuts Well 4/1 2pt win

1655 Tipperary Raynedanse 13/2 1.5pt win

1700 Longchamp Kinross 13/2 1pt e/w

1715 Killarney Stealthy Tom 5/2 2.5pt win

8pts staked ????

 

Nutswell wins 5/1 = +10pts profit

Raynedanse lost= -1.5pts loss

Kinross places 13=2 = +0.25pts profit

Stealthy Tom wins 5/2 = +6.25pts profit

15pt profit on the day to pretty much eradicate yesterday.

Overall P/L = -1.5pts

I also had Gin On Lime winning @ 11/4 with 3pts on it which returned a 8.25pt profit. So technically if I hadn't been so stupid today with not recording it, the P/L would have been +6.75pts after 3 days but I said I wouldn't count it so I won't. But my betting balance is in line with the +6.75pts.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Hotspur88

[Offramp]

Roughly came out even.

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, roger2256 said:

Google ' mytimeform'  . Its free to use and full of useful information.  Eg , bottom of each card is ' super stats'  , exellent if you are prepared to follow to the letter .

A favourite of mine , 'previous winners ' 

Most papers only give the previous year , mytimeform  list the last five years . I use the last two years and see if any of today's runners finished in the first three but preferably won. The logic is trainers target certain races and not necessarily at big meetings .

The old adage,  don't ask a horse to do more than it's already done . Previous winners have already proved themselves at the course and distance the only variables are ground and draw. 

 

Hi Roger,

I can't seem to find "mytimeform".  I registered with Timeform and looked at the cards but couldn't see any super stats.  Can you help?

[The Equaliser]

10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Hi Roger,

I can't seem to find "mytimeform".  I registered with Timeform and looked at the cards but couldn't see any super stats.  Can you help?

It's Ok, they seem to call them "smart stats" now

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

3.15 Tipp Glenquin Castle Even

3.45 Tipp Gin On Lime 5/2 (£2 win at 3.85 = £5.59 P if it wins)

4.00 Uttx Milkwood 6/4

one £1 win Trixie = £4.00 £38.25  poss return

Total stakes £6.00

 

RESULTS UPDATE

A win double and a singles win = a return of £14.59 so a net profit of £8.59.  My new balance is £705.06 (Bank £1056.22)

38 races tomorrow.  soft at Pontefract & Tipperary plus heavy in places there.

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have signed up to the Racing Post for a trial half price subscription.

Does anyone on here have an angle on what is profitable using ANY information that is either online or in the digital newspaper itself?

The only thing I have found so far is checking out jockeys who have a decent strike rate (25% plus) when riding favourites in a race.  Finding them though is tedious and time consuming.

Not sure if Horse Race Base has up to date and better stats on jockeys and trainers.

Any advice is welcome.

I have to go out soon so won't be back until much later this afternoon so I can't give a quick response

Many thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to reply

 

Quite amusing that no one on the forum seems to be able to report on any profitable angles using the Racing Post, both digital newspaper and online version.  Does this mean that punters up and down the country are wasting their £4.20 (was £3.90 last week) a day for the printed version or £34.50 monthly subscription for the online version?

 

[MCLARKE]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Quite amusing that no one on the forum seems to be able to report on any profitable angles using the Racing Post, both digital newspaper and online version.  Does this mean that punters up and down the country are wasting their £4.20 (was £3.90 last week) a day for the printed version or £34.50 monthly subscription for the online version?

I stopped using the RP years ago. I download the raw data elsewhere and analyse it myself.

I suspect it will be difficult to find a profitable angle using information that is readily available to everybody.

[The Equaliser]

22 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I stopped using the RP years ago. I download the raw data elsewhere and analyse it myself.

I suspect it will be difficult to find a profitable angle using information that is readily available to everybody.

Funny enough they seem to have prevented people having a forum like ATR does.  Instead they have their own controlled RP members club that they even charge members for.  This is a pity because it stops the enthusiastic punters finding angles for the RP readers.

I'm not so sure I agree with you about readily available information.  As I pointed out earlier they have stats for jockeys wining strike rates on favourites (not just the high flyers like Oisin Murphy and Will Buick but others like Rossa Ryan who do very well when on a favourite.  There is a ton of information in the paper and online and just because its there to see it is not obvious what is useful and what isn't.

 

[MCLARKE]

23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I'm not so sure I agree with you about readily available information. 

I suppose what I am saying is that if is obvious that Rossa Ryan has done well on favourites in the past then the chances are that his odds when on the favourites in the future are likely to reduce.

Also win rates are nor particularly useful.

[The Equaliser]

18 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I suppose what I am saying is that if is obvious that Rossa Ryan has done well on favourites in the past then the chances are that his odds when on the favourites in the future are likely to reduce.

Also win rates are nor particularly useful.

Well, Ok; I'm off to bed, I need some sleep.  Hope you get some too ?

[Bang on]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Quite amusing that no one on the forum seems to be able to report on any profitable angles using the Racing Post, both digital newspaper and online version.  Does this mean that punters up and down the country are wasting their £4.20 (was £3.90 last week) a day for the printed version or £34.50 monthly subscription for the online version?

 

I buy the Racing Post Mon - Sat , but always take Sunday off as a different type of day/ rest day.

There are many angles, too many (there can be too much information) as they often contradict and confuse. My advice is to not try and overthink things (it will do your head in). I always check the last 14 days trainer stats for trainers who are HOT ( winners not just Running to Form). Reduce your workload by, number of runners, racetype, and start from there. Finally, don't forget that the RPR ratings are only running at 26% for this year, so treat with caution.

[calva decoy]

21 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

On my speed figures even before the fav pulled out zellie was the highest rated osculla was 2nd rated, in the 1:150 angel blue was second best to ebro river but higher on soft but i took a risk on the german horse rocchigiani at the prices so just shows how you can be both right and wrong at the same time.

With your speed figures do you take into account with previous races of for instance wind speed be it head or back wind & going ( if you can actually trust clerk of the courses stick readings ) & also types of course left or right handed , flat or undulating tracks ?

I've never really bothered with speed figures in UK because of the above could make judgements a bit sketchy compared to say the US or Hong Kong where courses are basically the same albeit still liable for bad weather conditions .

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Bang on said:

I buy the Racing Post Mon - Sat , but always take Sunday off as a different type of day/ rest day.

There are many angles, too many (there can be too much information) as they often contradict and confuse. My advice is to not try and overthink things (it will do your head in). I always check the last 14 days trainer stats for trainers who are HOT ( winners not just Running to Form). Reduce your workload by, number of runners, racetype, and start from there. Finally, don't forget that the RPR ratings are only running at 26% for this year, so treat with caution.

Very many thanks for being helpful. I am currently working on trainer stats fro winner finding so that is really useful.

Just a thought.  If you are buying the RP 6 days a week that is costing around £1310 per year at its new price of £4.20 per day.  If you switch to subscribing on-line at say £35 a month you will pay around £420 per year saving £890.00!  You can still access the digital newspaper and see all the info you get daily; it's a bit messy but you can zoom in and out of the text on the pages.

 

[Bang on]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Very many thanks for being helpful. I am currently working on trainer stats fro winner finding so that is really useful.

Just a thought.  If you are buying the RP 6 days a week that is costing around £1310 per year at its new price of £4.20 per day.  If you switch to subscribing on-line at say £35 a month you will pay around £420 per year saving £890.00!  You can still access the digital newspaper and see all the info you get daily; it's a bit messy but you can zoom in and out of the text on the pages.

 

I probably could save a little, but I mark the paper with Highlighters and different colour inks etc which you can't do online. The saving may be around £18 per week but my bets are large enough that it doesn't really affect my profit/loss when included. 

[The Equaliser]

25 minutes ago, Bang on said:

I probably could save a little, but I mark the paper with Highlighters and different colour inks etc which you can't do online. The saving may be around £18 per week but my bets are large enough that it doesn't really affect my profit/loss when included. 

Ok, just trying to help

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, Bang on said:

I probably could save a little, but I mark the paper with Highlighters and different colour inks etc which you can't do online. The saving may be around £18 per week but my bets are large enough that it doesn't really affect my profit/loss when included. 

Hmm just another thought, you can highlight text and other stuff on internet pages in colour using some sort of "paint" software; not sure whether it would suit your purpose though.  Also, I believe the online information could be additional help for you

[Zilzalian]

20 hours ago, calva decoy said:

With your speed figures do you take into account with previous races of for instance wind speed be it head or back wind & going ( if you can actually trust clerk of the courses stick readings ) & also types of course left or right handed , flat or undulating tracks ?

I've never really bothered with speed figures in UK because of the above could make judgements a bit sketchy compared to say the US or Hong Kong where courses are basically the same albeit still liable for bad weather conditions .

Speed figures like any other data are just an additional tool. For me its a starting point, stopwatch in the racing post would be profitable if he didn't publish them, he has a different approach to me and includes many variables, I keep it simple because as you have touched on, clerk of the course can't be relied on and one of the worse things is watering and rail alignment. basically I produce a figure from point A to point B (start to finish). In my opinion and many will disagree with me, speed figures are not very useful in handicaps because trainers can and do easily manipulate them. (what does "laid out for this mean"?) there are many ways to get a horse legitimately beaten. wrong trip, wrong ground, going off too fast, racing 4 wide around tight tracks etc etc. To be honest we and i include myself in that, should never back in handicaps but we cant stop ourselves. The pattern races are as different to handicaps as football is to rugby. With speed figures to do them properly you have to put the time in pretty much daily and then weekly and it can be mind numbing. Having said all this, I conclude, in my opinion there is no better tool than your own eyes and a notebook so if you can confirm your observations with a bit of data it will give you the additional confidence you need to back your judgement. Again in my opinion, there is no worse tool than published/TV media tipsters, as recently proven or supported by @The Equaliser recent small study.

[Bang on]

13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Hmm just another thought, you can highlight text and other stuff on internet pages in colour using some sort of "paint" software; not sure whether it would suit your purpose though.  Also, I believe the online information could be additional help for you

I am old ! ? and in the habit of doing it my way. Probably a lot quicker for me using the paper version.

[The Equaliser]

No probs; you seem to be able to handle using the forum and the website so I feel that you could adapt.  Each to their own and many thanks for the advice on checking out types of races etc for trainers  ?