Racing-Chat Sunday 3rd October

[Zilzalian]

Arc day probably the most competitive day in the French calendar.

The British bookies are shocking, if those prices are the best they can offer there is only one option and that is the PMU. 

[MCLARKE]

One of the reasons why I ignore non UK racing.

What is the deduction on the PMU?

[ipswich45]

couple of Aussie Picks

Northam
1005 R8 - Gannons Ladies Day Cup        7 Far Too Strong

Sunshine Coast
0720 R7 - Noosa Cup                            6 Luskin Hero

[Hotspur88]

Current P/L = -16.5pts

Terrible day yesterday with a 17pt loss. Lost a place double last night but also won a nice 3pt win on Trueshan but I'm not counting them in my P/L as I'm just tracking the new group I'm in. Something I forgot to mention was the guy works on a 1-5pt system. 

4 selections today, hopefully I can start reducing that deficit....

1540 Kelso Nuts Well 4/1 2pt win

1655 Tipperary Raynedanse 13/2 1.5pt win

1700 Longchamp Kinross 13/2 2pt win 

1715 Killarney Stealthy Tom 5/2 2.5pt win

8pts staked ????

 

[Zilzalian]

8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

One of the reasons why I ignore non UK racing.

What is the deduction on the PMU?

Not really sure i seem to recall 14-15% from somewhere.

[fd1972uk]

No bets for me today, don't fancy it. 

Did have a money back on a couple of French races, but still staying away. If I had took the offer I'd go for Fleur Diris on the 1st and Angel Bluie on the next, for the Arc, Ardaya. 

Edited October 3, 2021 by fd1972uk

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Not really sure i seem to recall 14-15% from somewhere.

I'm not sure if anyone could make a profit with that sort of deduction.

[Offramp]

3 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Current P/L = -16.5pts

Terrible day yesterday with a 17pt loss....

Me too. I've decided to avoid Britain today but I've covered Longchamp.

I'm doing the 13:15 as a win single, ACER ALLEY 11/2. At Skybet I'll get my money back if it's 2nd or 3rd.

Edited October 3, 2021 by Offramp
wrong horse mentioned

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

3.15 Tipp Glenquin Castle Even

3.45 Tipp Gin On Lime 5/2 (£2 win at 3.85 = £5.59 P if it wins)

4.00 Uttx Milkwood 6/4

one £1 win Trixie = £4.00 £38.25  poss return

Total stakes £6.00

 

[The Equaliser]

I have signed up to the Racing Post for a trial half price subscription.

Does anyone on here have an angle on what is profitable using ANY information that is either online or in the digital newspaper itself?

The only thing I have found so far is checking out jockeys who have a decent strike rate (25% plus) when riding favourites in a race.  Finding them though is tedious and time consuming.

Not sure if Horse Race Base has up to date and better stats on jockeys and trainers.

Any advice is welcome.

I have to go out soon so won't be back until much later this afternoon so I can't give a quick response

Many thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to reply

 

[cannotbebeat]

3.22 Uttoxeter Gaia Vallis 100/30

4.35 Uttoxeter Copper Coin 100/30

Good luck all CNBB.

[Wildgarden]

305 longchamp surely tarnawa is decent ew now drifted ... 7.0 betfair exchnage and 2.5 place top 3. also sky bet top 5 11-2 ew... 1/5 odds on the place so slightly less but extra two places as cover!

Edited October 3, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Hotspur88]

4 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Current P/L = -16.5pts

Terrible day yesterday with a 17pt loss. Lost a place double last night but also won a nice 3pt win on Trueshan but I'm not counting them in my P/L as I'm just tracking the new group I'm in. Something I forgot to mention was the guy works on a 1-5pt system. 

4 selections today, hopefully I can start reducing that deficit....

1540 Kelso Nuts Well 4/1 2pt win

1655 Tipperary Raynedanse 13/2 1.5pt win

1700 Longchamp Kinross 13/2 2pt win 

1715 Killarney Stealthy Tom 5/2 2.5pt win

8pts staked ????

 

Had word for Gin On Lime 1545 today and I've backed it 3pts but not going in the P/L.

[MCLARKE]

7 minutes ago, Offramp said:

I'm doing the 13:15 as a win single, ACER ALLEY 11/2. At Skybet I'll get my money back if it's 2nd or 3rd.

I'll take advantage of this offer but the only logical bet is FLEUR D'IRIS at 2/1. Everything else being equal the expected value of the win is the same but there is a much higher chance of getting your money back.

[Offramp]

1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll take advantage of this offer but the only logical bet is FLEUR D'IRIS at 2/1. Everything else being equal the expected value of the win is the same but there is a much higher chance of getting your money back.

You are definitely right. But I was seething after yesterday, and Friday, I couldn't even pick my nose.

For the Paris 13:15 I took the Timeform top-starred horse and didn't look any further - but I was betting only a few quid anyway. If I were putting on a big lump I would've put more thought into it, and probably have gone for Fleur d'Iris.

[azzybear]

artic warrior 1.00

[fd1972uk]

The favourite has dropped out the 1315, Fleur Diris was 5/1 prior to it too, lol. Now 9/4.

[fd1972uk]

Just decided to go for the mb offers, lol. 

[fd1972uk]

Was watching the footy so didn't see the results but poor from fleurs, zillie was the other option, so unfortunately no mb as it was nowhere, but will take 6/1 on angel blieu, nice wee win. 

May stick something on the. Arc, but not sure. 

[Zilzalian]

2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

I'm not sure if anyone could make a profit with that sort of deduction.

that deduction is taken out of the overall pools the sp usually pretty much Reflects the pmu, the difference is that discrepancies occur between our bookies early prices for UK horses and the french view through the pmu. So there is value to be had. if you look at the arc betting on 365 for example and what they return you will see what i mean, at the moment it looks like there are 4 favs and that was my beef last night, it will be interesting to see what the returns end up being both sp and pmu. the general rule used to be if its a french horse back at uk prices and vice versa same with the american pmu but with international pools its a bit more tricky these days. what i do if i cant make my mind up is split my stakes between the two because the horses i back tend to be bigger prices. i have had had some huge returns from pmu over the years.

[roger2256]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have signed up to the Racing Post for a trial half price subscription.

Does anyone on here have an angle on what is profitable using ANY information that is either online or in the digital newspaper itself?

The only thing I have found so far is checking out jockeys who have a decent strike rate (25% plus) when riding favourites in a race.  Finding them though is tedious and time consuming.

Not sure if Horse Race Base has up to date and better stats on jockeys and trainers.

Any advice is welcome.

I have to go out soon so won't be back until much later this afternoon so I can't give a quick response

Many thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to reply

 

Google ' mytimeform'  . Its free to use and full of useful information.  Eg , bottom of each card is ' super stats'  , exellent if you are prepared to follow to the letter .

A favourite of mine , 'previous winners ' 

Most papers only give the previous year , mytimeform  list the last five years . I use the last two years and see if any of today's runners finished in the first three but preferably won. The logic is trainers target certain races and not necessarily at big meetings .

The old adage,  don't ask a horse to do more than it's already done . Previous winners have already proved themselves at the course and distance the only variables are ground and draw. 

 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

I'll take advantage of this offer but the only logical bet is FLEUR D'IRIS at 2/1. Everything else being equal the expected value of the win is the same but there is a much higher chance of getting your money back.

On my speed figures even before the fav pulled out zellie was the highest rated osculla was 2nd rated, in the 1:150 angel blue was second best to ebro river but higher on soft but i took a risk on the german horse rocchigiani at the prices so just shows how you can be both right and wrong at the same time.

[Offramp]

1 hour ago, fd1972uk said:

The favourite has dropped out the 1315, Fleur Diris was 5/1 prior to it too, lol. Now 9/4.

Ended up 7th at 15/8F.

1 Zellie 4/1, 2nd Times Sq 40/1 3rd Oscula 15/2 4th Agartha 13/2 5th Who Knows 22/1 6th Acer Alley 13/2. Natasha 8th, 6/1.

Raclette NR.

Could be the wrong day I gave up sniffing glue.

[MCLARKE]

18 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

that deduction is taken out of the overall pools the sp usually pretty much Reflects the pmu, the difference is that discrepancies occur between our bookies early prices for UK horses and the french view through the pmu. So there is value to be had. if you look at the arc betting on 365 for example and what they return you will see what i mean, at the moment it looks like there are 4 favs and that was my beef last night, it will be interesting to see what the returns end up being both sp and pmu. the general rule used to be if its a french horse back at uk prices and vice versa same with the american pmu but with international pools its a bit more tricky these days. what i do if i cant make my mind up is split my stakes between the two because the horses i back tend to be bigger prices. i have had had some huge returns from pmu over the years.

All looks a bit complicated to me. No UK flat racing so I'll have a day off, I usually lose money on Sundays anyway.

[Zilzalian]

6/1 for Tarnawa is a huge price ok it has drifted but it has won on heavy ground at this meeting last year it is by far the best horse on form and has been targeted  at this race all year. whatever happens i dont think we will see a better race for a few years.

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by Zilzalian

[fd1972uk]

Had opted for Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane, both mugged by a 80/1 shot on the line, lol. 

[Wildgarden]

3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

305 longchamp surely tarnawa is decent ew now drifted ... 7.0 betfair exchnage and 2.5 place top 3. also sky bet top 5 11-2 ew... 1/5 odds on the place so slightly less but extra two places as cover!

only the place im afraid top 3 slight profit.

[Zilzalian]

Sir Mark Prescott will be devastated with that result Alpinista beat that winner comfortably.

To understand and simplify German horses you have to go back to after the war when they were not allowed access to "other breeders" so while the other European breeders began to concentrate on breeding for speed into the thoroughbred the Germans only had their own "staying" population to breed from. Which basically means when the ground is shit deep over trips beyond 1m 2f the German horses have an advantage.

[alexcaruso808]

58 minutes ago, fd1972uk said:

Had opted for Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane, both mugged by a 80/1 shot on the line, lol. 

I was the same, I bet on Hurricane Lane and Adayar ?

[Hotspur88]

8 hours ago, Hotspur88 said:

Current P/L = -16.5pts

Terrible day yesterday with a 17pt loss. Lost a place double last night but also won a nice 3pt win on Trueshan but I'm not counting them in my P/L as I'm just tracking the new group I'm in. Something I forgot to mention was the guy works on a 1-5pt system. 

4 selections today, hopefully I can start reducing that deficit....

1540 Kelso Nuts Well 4/1 2pt win

1655 Tipperary Raynedanse 13/2 1.5pt win

1700 Longchamp Kinross 13/2 2pt win 

1715 Killarney Stealthy Tom 5/2 2.5pt win

8pts staked ????

 

Much much better today.

2pts on Nutswell 5/1 to return 12pts and 3pts on Gin On Lime 11/4 returns 11.25pts. 10pt profit on Nutswell and 8.25pts on Gin On Lime. Annoyed I said I wouldn't count Gin On Lime towards P/L as it won very easily and would have put a big dent into yesterday's loss. 

2/2 today with 3 to run.