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World Grand Prix


Fader
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The Grand Prix gets underway tomorrow with the winner netting £110k. Tournament is a week long event, in Leicester and has the top 16 PDC (order of merit) along with the 16 qualifiers based on the ProTour rankings. Top 8 in the Order of Merit will be seeded for this.

Ofcourse the big thing here is that you'll need a double to begin and so anybody who struggles with doubles is never winning this event.

Price is going to be a big favourite here and he won this last year and has the 2nd highest checkout percentage in the last few years (2nd to Dave Chisnall believe it or not) Clayton, Clemens and Peter Wright make up the top 5 in that regard but Cullen and Humphries is also in the top 8. In terms of averages, MVG is actually top over the last couple of years. Ian White is an interesting one, sitting in 3rd.

The two I like are Suljovic to continue his good form and Humphries, of whom I really rate as a player. I also will continue to back Smith and Rydz as outsiders as they are so talented. I'll take a punt on Dolan and Aspinall based on recent form.

1pt e/w N.Aspinall to win Grand Prix 33/1 paddypower
1pt e/w L.Humphries to win Grand Prix 45/1 betvictor
1pt e/w B.Dolan to win Grand Prix 50/1 betvictor
1pt e/w M.Suljovic to win Grand Prix 80/1 boylesports
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0.5pts e/w R.Smith to win Grand Prix 125/1 bet365
0.5pts e/w C.Rydz to win Grand Prix 150/1 paddypower

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I'll take just the one tonight and that's Mensur to beat Chisnall. You wouldn't really have Chizzy down as a good finisher and more of a scorer but he has done well over the last few years and holds the best checkout %. However, I think his consistency in hitting those doubles against Suljovic who will just go D14 with every single start to wear him down. If Chizzy struggles to hit his doubles then he loses here and Sulijovic also has the better form after making back-to-back finals with both Austria at the World Cup and on his own last week.

4pts M.Suljovic to beat D.Chisnall 5/4 paddypower
2pts Suljovic, Wade, Price & Ross Smith to win 12/1 paddypower (1 loses, money back)

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How typical that the 4-fold was let down by the single bet. It's money back for that 4-fold but Suljovic let us down. Atleast a couple of the outrights went through.

Looking at tonight and the 2nd half of the 1st round matches and it's plain to see the stand out match is Clayton against Rydz. Rydz beat Clayton in a deciding leg to win his first Players Championship (as tipped by me to win that event) but that's now in the past and Rydz will need to keep his recent form up and especially the doubling. I think the 2/1 on offer is good value.

In the other matches, I think Clemens beats Van Der Voort. I think Clemens just about beats Van Der Voort in consistency but it really could go either way. I like Aspinall in this event and have tipped him to win the event. He has a hard match tonight against Ratajski, but I'll take him with Clemens and De Sousa to win 2-0. Durrant has really improved from the mess of a player he was a couple of months ago but I think he will feel the pressure tonight.

3.5pts C.Rydz to beat J.Clayton 2/1 paddypower
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2pts MVG, Wright and Aspinall to win 11/4 paddypower
1pt  accy - Dolan, Clemens, Aspinall, Wright, MVG, De Sousa to win 2-0 11/1 paddypower
0.5pts 4-fold - Rydz, Aspinall, White & Clemens 25/1 paddypower

Grand Prix bets -4pts

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Horrible night for predictions last night. How anybody could have predicted those results I don't know :D Carnage as Wright, Aspinall, MVG and Anderson all went out. Price must be lapping it up. He plays tonight against Merv King. The other 3 matches are Chizzy against Ross Smith, Wade takes on Bunting and the final match sees Searle take on Luke Humphries. One that I like alot tonight is Wade to beat Bunting. Bunting looked really good in Round 1 but he wasn't tested atall. Wade most certainly was and rose to it.

I will take PP booster today which sees Price, Wade and Humphries. I think only Humphries is my worry there but he has enough about him to win tonight. As a little half point punt, I'll take the 25/1 on King, Smith and Humphries too. We've seen many upsets already and would it be that big a shock to see King beat Price?

5pts J.Wade (-1.5 sets) to beat S.Bunting 5/4 bet365
3pts Price, Wade & Humphries to win 7/2 paddypower
0.5pts Humphries, R.Smith and King 25/1 paddypower

Grand Prix bets -11pts

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blimey, couldn't predict what day tomorrow is at the moment :D this tournament is nuts. Keeping it simple tonight and just taking Clayton to beat De Sousa. I thought De Sousa looked bang average against Durrant. Yes, that may be because he was playing a friend who looked woeful but I'm just not sure De Sousa is at the Clayton level right now.

5pts Clayton to beat De Sousa 4/5 bet365
2pts Clayton to win the match, most 180s and highest checkout 9/2 paddypower

-19.5pts

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Into the Quarter finals now. Everybody plays tonight. Full line-up :

Noppert Vs White
Ratajski Vs Clayton
Price Vs Chisnall
Bunting Vs Searle

Noppert looked really good yesterday against Van Der Voort. He went down 2-0 in the 1st set and was matching Van Der Voort in 100+ averages for the first set. He came back to win that set and never looked back. White also went a set down. Infact, 2 sets down and 6-0 in legs down but came back into it to beat Labby. Difference is Labby allowed it and much like Ross Smith the night previously, he kinda bottled it. I think Noppert wins tonight. He is consistently getting in and White struggled quite alot at times to get in.

I think Clayton likely beats Ratajski. It looks very much like a Clayton Vs Price final right now. Price beats Chizzy for me. Like previously mentioned, I think Ross Smith bottled it against Chizzy and should have won that match easily at 2-0 up. It was a frustrating match as I was on Smith on the outright but let's face it, he wasn't  beating Price and nor will Chizzy be in my opinion. He isn't playing well enough.

In the final match, I think it's likely to be the closest result. I would side with Searle as he is just flying right now but he's hitting the big out shots every match and still laboring over the line so if those big checkouts stop then he could be in trouble. I think that will come in the Semi-final though.

6pts D.Noppert to beat I.White 4/6 betvictor
2pts Noppert, Clayton, Price and Searle all to win 11/2 paddypower
2pts Searle to beat Bunting, hit most 180s and highest checkout 5/1 paddypower

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and that's why Searle doesn't make alot of semi finals or finals. No discipline or temperament atall. Pathetic performance. To think he took out Humphries and then gave that performance. Bunting will get thrashed by Price. Very average.

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More and more it's looking like a boring old Welsh final. Price looks to be got at right now. He isn't playing that great, but he hasn't needed to. Bunting was pretty average lastnight and he would need to add about 10pts to his average to win tonight in my eyes. Clayton looked much better last night and beat a real in-form Ratajski. I think Clayton and Price go through 4-1/4-2. Noppert has looked possibly the best player of the lot but I just feel like we're waiting for the doubling to abandon him. 

2pts Price to beat Bunting, most 180s and highest checkout 7/2 paddypower
1pt Price and Clayton both to win and hit most 180s 7/1 paddypower
1pt Price and Clayton both to win 4-1 18/1 paddypower

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ah so close to both winning 4-1. Just Price's injury flaring up again to cause him issues. Luckily, Bunting just wasn't good enough to take advantage. That final set from Price and the couple of 180s means he hit the 7/2 match treble for a +5pt night.

I think the final is no surprise. You would have to say Clayton much better form but he always seems to fail to play his game against Price and so it's not set in stone in any sense.

grand prix bets -1.5pts

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@Fader what is a good bookie for darts?  You use Paddy Power, but I self excluded from Betfair / Paddy Power last year (something I have come to regret).  Bet365 dont offer such good darts bets, like PP do.  Any other suggestions?  Not Will Hill - they are a no-go for me for another year.

Edited by alexcaruso808
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@alexcaruso808 yeah, I tend to use Paddy alot mate. They tend to do alot of the boosts and bonuses and also tend to have the money back if 1 loses (which as you can see happens to me alot) :d 

I don't want to promote somebody gambling when they have a self exclusion but are you not able to create a new account or something?

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28 minutes ago, Fader said:

@alexcaruso808 yeah, I tend to use Paddy alot mate. They tend to do alot of the boosts and bonuses and also tend to have the money back if 1 loses (which as you can see happens to me alot) :d 

I don't want to promote somebody gambling when they have a self exclusion but are you not able to create a new account or something?

I have avoided creating a new account with Paddy Power as it's likely they keep IP address records and would detect me trying to sneak back on.  ?

I lost the head last year after a losing streak and self-excluded.  I didn't even bet that much with them, but there you have it!  

 

They do have good boosts and bonuses though.  I will just stick with Bet365 and Smarkets for the time being.  

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The final is tonight then and I can't ignore the difference in form of the two. Everything points to Clayton, the form, the averages, the doubling, the crowd, who will be 100% Clayton and the fact Price is struggling with his arm (know how that feels) 

The problem is Price always finds a way to win these and has a massive head-2-head advantage. I'm very much torn, because you have to favour Clayton on all these facts above. I'll go with my heart instead of my head on this one and I'll take Clayton to win. His averages have been consistently good through the tournament and if he goes below 90 for this one then we know he has a real mental block with Price. He did beat him in a Players Championship final but that's not on the TV.

I get the feeling this will either be a Clayton win with ease or Clayton will bottle is alittle bit and it be a scrappy 5-4 Price. One thing for sure, Clayton isn't scoring 180s like Price is and is tending to go T19 after two T20s. He is hitting alot of 140s but that's always been the case with Clayton and so I think Price hits most 180s tonight. 

4pts J.Clayton (-1.5 sets) to beat G.Price 2/1 paddypower
2pts Price to hit the most 180s but LOSE the match 3/1 paddypower
2pts Clayton win / Price most 180s / Clayton highest checkout 6/1 skybet

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What! A! Match! just incredible from Clayton. Not sure I've seen a better performance. The checkouts were from another planet. All 3 bets wins for +26pts 2/1, 3/1 and 6/1 winners to get the tournament into the profit. I can't believe Clayton was 150/1 to win the Worlds not that long ago. He's now around 10s.

Grand Prix bets +14.5pts

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