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Cambridgeshire - Saturday


The Brigadier
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The five day declaration are out later for Saturdays big cavalry charge at Newmarket and I think there may well be one that has gone under the radar of the bookmakers (bar William Hill that is!). Keith Dagleish's CHICHESTER was a highly impressive winner of a  valuable class 2 handicap at Ayr last Thursday with his improvement possibly coming from the addition of a visor. He was always going well and looked, on that run anyway, a horse way ahead of his mark. The form has actually already been boosted with the runner up that day Platinumcard running well in a listed contest two days later at the Scottish track. He will have to carry a 4lb penalty for that victory IF he is sent to the Cambridgeshire with that penalty pushing him up to currently number 46 in a handicap where 35 can run so with two declaration stages to come you'll be disappointed if he doesn't get into the race. 

https://www.racingtv.com/results/uk/354998-ayr/16-Sep-2021/1645

I think the bookmakers have massively under estimated his chance as he will likely be going up 10lb or more when his new rating is unveiled tomorrow putting him in here as  a horse 6lb ahead of his mark. He is ground dependent with fast ground his optimum going and with (after  a shower today) a predominately dry week the ground looks likely to be in his favour come the weekend.

I'm not privy to information as to whether he'll go for the race or even be left in today but if I owned the horse I would be very keen to run and exploit his mark with conditions likely to suit. He's a whopping 80/1 with Bet365 and there's plenty of 66/1 around. All being well if he turns up on Saturday I think he will be a quarter of those odds and is worth a small each way play now before today's declarations are known with our fingers firmly crossed that he appears amongst them. Obviously at this early stage we don't have the benefit of enhanced odds but we can always play again when the 48 hour decs are known.

 

CHICHESTER 1/2 point each way @ 80/1 Bet365 1/2 1234

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6 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

The five day declaration are out later for Saturdays big cavalry charge at Newmarket and I think there may well be one that has gone under the radar of the bookmakers (bar William Hill that is!). Keith Dagleish's CHICHESTER was a highly impressive winner of a  valuable class 2 handicap at Ayr last Thursday with his improvement possibly coming from the addition of a visor. He was always going well and looked, on that run anyway, a horse way ahead of his mark. The form has actually already been boosted with the runner up that day Platinumcard running well in a listed contest two days later at the Scottish track. He will have to carry a 4lb penalty for that victory IF he is sent to the Cambridgeshire with that penalty pushing him up to currently number 46 in a handicap where 35 can run so with two declaration stages to come you'll be disappointed if he doesn't get into the race. 

https://www.racingtv.com/results/uk/354998-ayr/16-Sep-2021/1645

I think the bookmakers have massively under estimated his chance as he will likely be going up 10lb or more when his new rating is unveiled tomorrow putting him in here as  a horse 6lb ahead of his mark. He is ground dependent with fast ground his optimum going and with (after  a shower today) a predominately dry week the ground looks likely to be in his favour come the weekend.

I'm not privy to information as to whether he'll go for the race or even be left in today but if I owned the horse I would be very keen to run and exploit his mark with conditions likely to suit. He's a whopping 80/1 with Bet365 and there's plenty of 66/1 around. All being well if he turns up on Saturday I think he will be a quarter of those odds and is worth a small each way play now before today's declarations are known with our fingers firmly crossed that he appears amongst them. Obviously at this early stage we don't have the benefit of enhanced odds but we can always play again when the 48 hour decs are known.

 

CHICHESTER 1/2 point each way @ 80/1 Bet365 1/2 1234

He's declared and is number 35 so guaranteed a run. Top priced 33/1 now though still think that is value as personally wouldn't have him any bigger than 16/1.

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28 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

He's declared and is number 35 so guaranteed a run. Top priced 33/1 now though still think that is value as personally wouldn't have him any bigger than 16/1.

I am in full agreement it comes out very well on my figures I also agree on your price assessment both earlier and now. I just about managed to get 66/1 you and the cleaner were probably the only ones getting on at 80/1 🙂

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23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

The five day declaration are out later for Saturdays big cavalry charge at Newmarket and I think there may well be one that has gone under the radar of the bookmakers (bar William Hill that is!). Keith Dagleish's CHICHESTER was a highly impressive winner of a  valuable class 2 handicap at Ayr last Thursday with his improvement possibly coming from the addition of a visor. He was always going well and looked, on that run anyway, a horse way ahead of his mark. The form has actually already been boosted with the runner up that day Platinumcard running well in a listed contest two days later at the Scottish track. He will have to carry a 4lb penalty for that victory IF he is sent to the Cambridgeshire with that penalty pushing him up to currently number 46 in a handicap where 35 can run so with two declaration stages to come you'll be disappointed if he doesn't get into the race. 

https://www.racingtv.com/results/uk/354998-ayr/16-Sep-2021/1645

I think the bookmakers have massively under estimated his chance as he will likely be going up 10lb or more when his new rating is unveiled tomorrow putting him in here as  a horse 6lb ahead of his mark. He is ground dependent with fast ground his optimum going and with (after  a shower today) a predominately dry week the ground looks likely to be in his favour come the weekend.

I'm not privy to information as to whether he'll go for the race or even be left in today but if I owned the horse I would be very keen to run and exploit his mark with conditions likely to suit. He's a whopping 80/1 with Bet365 and there's plenty of 66/1 around. All being well if he turns up on Saturday I think he will be a quarter of those odds and is worth a small each way play now before today's declarations are known with our fingers firmly crossed that he appears amongst them. Obviously at this early stage we don't have the benefit of enhanced odds but we can always play again when the 48 hour decs are known.

 

CHICHESTER 1/2 point each way @ 80/1 Bet365 1/2 1234

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that the horse doesn't declare today for a much less valuable race at Pontefract on Thursday. The perils of ante post betting !!

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1 hour ago, The Brigadier said:

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that the horse doesn't declare today for a much less valuable race at Pontefract on Thursday. The perils of ante post betting !!

Thankfully hasn't declared for Pontefract. His new mark means hes 9lb well in on Saturday and is now as low as 10/1 ! Only got the 34 to beat mind.

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Due to all the interest i decided to publish what my speed figures say about the Cambridgeshire, I do not like doing speed figures for  A) handicaps B) Handicaps for older horses the reason for this is simple Trainers can manipulate the handicap. If Uncle Bryn (122) wins? 

1 Breath Caught                   135      25/1

2 Chichester                         134      10/1

2 Anmaat                             134       11/1

2 Power of Darkness            134       40/1

Best of the Rest - all 132     Magical Morning      14/1

                                            Anything Today         25/1 AW

                                            Montather                 16/1 AW

I am sat wondering if chichester will be a non runner i have seen that happen a lot with big gambles

Edited by Zilzalian
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13 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Bet365 have taken this race off their site....  I cant find it and when I search the horse names they aren't coming up. :(

48 hr declarations probably, it will be back on. or if saturday is listed on todays racing ie today fri sat it will be there if not that is what is happening and it will appear there it is no longer anti post.

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1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

48 hr declarations probably, it will be back on. or if saturday is listed on todays racing ie today fri sat it will be there if not that is what is happening and it will appear there it is no longer anti post.

I will keep an eye out - when I read your speed ratings I was going to have a look at the horses again and bet on some of your selections.  

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39 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

It's on there now, I swear it wasn't on ealier - unless I'm going nuts lol!

You're not going nuts , it wasn't on their or on Sky but now they're offering 6 places .

Although Chichester is 9Lb out of the handicap there's 4 or 5 in the race who are well in but not that well in , Crowley's ride on the Shadwell horse could go close .

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1 hour ago, Bang on said:

I am being offered £100 more than I staked to 'cash out' ... wow ! They must have been filled in.

lol my own cash out has gone up considerably too.  The bookies are going to get hammered if this horse wins.  I trust Hollie Doyle will give it her best shot, she is a great jockey and very switched on when it comes to making tactical moves.  

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2 hours ago, alexcaruso808 said:

lol my own cash out has gone up considerably too.  The bookies are going to get hammered if this horse wins.  I trust Hollie Doyle will give it her best shot, she is a great jockey and very switched on when it comes to making tactical moves.  

fingers crossed Alex - the main issue now is the draw. As always there appears to be a bias towards the near side (stands side) and Chichester is drawn on far side in 10. Lets hope he's got enough in hand to make the frame at least.

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24 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

fingers crossed Alex - the main issue now is the draw. As always there appears to be a bias towards the near side (stands side) and Chichester is drawn on far side in 10. Lets hope he's got enough in hand to make the frame at least.

I'm not worried about the draw (9F is enough time to get a position)  as much as the idiot jockeys getting in each others way trying to find a non existent landing strip. 

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