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Racing Chat - Monday 20th September


alexcaruso808
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Leicester

1.00 - Meydan Rose - 4.50 - win 3rd

2.00 - Evening Song - 5.50 - win 7th 

2.35 - Loving Kiss - 17.00  EW  Non-runner.

3.10 - Ginger Jam - 6.00 - win 5th

3.45 -¬†Winnetka - 3.50 - win¬†1st ūüŹÜ

4.20 - Manumission - 6.00 - win 6th

 

Good luck all.

 

Edited by alexcaruso808
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Last night - Having done the speed figures for the 2Yold Listed race at Fairyhouse i was quite surprised that Glengarra who beat Ultramarine giving it weight (3lbs) was 12/1 whereas Ultramarine was 2/1 Fav. To me it seems someone initially priced this race up after a few pints. Be careful out there people.

1 Glengarra          121           12/1 now 6/1

2 Eriskay               117           22/1 now 16/1

 

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Some monday picks  NOW IN TIME ORDER

1330 Leicester - 4 Carbon   7/2 Bet365   WON
1340 Listowel - 2 Beret Rouge   3/1 Bet365 Unplaced
1350 Warwick - 5 Van Meegeren    6/4 Bet365  3rd
1417 Hamilton -  6 Absolute Dream   7/2 Bet365 WON
1425 Warwick - 6 Onehundredpercent    10/3 William Hill  2nd
1435 Leicester - 1 Quiet Evening   4/1 William Hill  2nd
1445 Listowel - 6 Kitty Galore   10/3 William Hill Unplaced
1500 Warwick - 2 Pink Eyed Pedro    7/2 Bet365 2nd
1550 Listowel - 3 Flying Scotsman   15/2 Bet365 Unplaced
1555 Hamilton - 4 Chinese Spirit   5/1 Bet365 Unplaced
1605 Fairyhouse - 6 Reverberation   7/1 Bet365 Unplaced
1620 Leicester - 6 Foreseeable Future   5/1 William Hill Unplaced
1637 Fairyhouse - 2 Straight Answer   5/2 Bet365 WON
1645 Warwick - 4 Not At Present    9/2 Bet365 2nd
1700 Hamilton - 7 Under Fox   10/3 Bet365 WON
1730 Wolves - 10 Street Life    11/2 Bet365 WON
1815 Fairyhouse - 7 Gatwick Kitten   6/1 Bet365 Non Runner
1900 Wolves - 1 Genesius   5/1 Bet365 Unplaced
2000 Wolves - 2 Beautiful Surprise   4/1 William Hill 3rd

Edited by ipswich45
results being added
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37 minutes ago, Offramp said:

I don't get many freebies. Nothing from Bet Victor. Bet 365 gives me an occasional £5 bet on the Premier League and I don't even like football.

Skybet gives me a fiver every Monday. That's okay.

Me too , thought Burnley would beat Arsenal at 11/4 on Saturday ūüėʬ†

My free £5 from Sky I did lots of ante post football bets & they're doing ok .

100 Leic - Flash Betty 11/1 ew ( 4 )

250 Ham - The Bell Conductor 10/3 

300 War - Zoffee 5/2 

700 Wolv - Basic Beauty 4/1 

Edited by calva decoy
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BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

B/Fwd Sep -6.75 Points

These are not tips; just an experiment

1.40 List Party Central 4/5 steady                                       Alt (2) 3/1

2.10 List 1 A Connect 11/10 steady                                    Alt (2) 5/2 (11/4 last night)

4.55 List Bleu Berry 8/11 (11/8 ln 2 n/r's)  DTR                    Alt (1) 15/4 (5/1 last night)

5.25 List Le Nouveau 4/6 steady  DTR                                  Alt (5) 11/2 steady

2.50 Ham Ventura Flame 9/4 (2/1 last night)                      Alt (5) 3/1  NB Market move for Global Humour 2/1; Ventura Flame looks bad for market followers

5.35 Ham Temper Trap 7/4 (3/1 ln Nr's now)                      Alt (6) 9/2 

3.35 War An Tailliur 6/4 (5/4 last night = LN)                    Alt (3) 3/1 (7/2 LN)

4.10 War Three Bullet Gate 9/4 (7/4 LN)                           Alt (5) 6/4 Fav; 9/4 LN)

2.55 Fair Recurrent Dream 2/5 DTR                                  Alt No Bet

4.37 Fair Ultramarine 2/1 steady DTR                               Alt (2) 5/2

5.30 Wolv Kingsholm 11/4 steady                                    Alt (10) 11/2 (was 4/1 LN)

7.30 Wolv Scheherazade 7/2 (15/4 LN)                             Alt (4) 9/4 (was 2/1 LN)

12 Selections from 45 races = 26.6%

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Book Bets:

3.35 War An Tailliur 13/8

5.30Wolv Kingsholm 11/4

5.35 Ham Temper Trap 13/8

One £1 win Trixie = £4 poss return £50.39

Singles bet = 3.35 War £2 win on An Tailliur at 3.10 = £4.10 profit if it wins

Hopefully back later with some jockey bookings bets

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

The logic I use is :-

If you had 10 free bets and bet them all at 1/1 then you would expect 5 winners and a return of 5 points.

If you had 10 free bets and bet them all at 9/1 then you would expect 1 winner and a return of 9 points.

Yeah, I only use on bigger odds as you say, although horses mainly part of Acc bets.  Only if I have some for a US race night will I use the higher free bets (usually £5).

I usually use the bigger free bets for my football. 

Don quite well for for free bets, have a few rewards via PP, WH and Sky. And also playing a lot of free games/competitions bring in a few. 

Also had a lot of luck with bet sites offers of stuff like bets on top scorers, scorers, competition winners getting money back for bets. Last one done was to win superbowl, bet Kansas City at £10 and it gives you £2 everytime 4 selected players score a touchdown. Have already won £12 in the past 2 sets of games and still have two games to play tonight/tomorrow. Derrick Henry ran 3 tds yesterday for £6 alone. 

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7 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1300 Leicester Round Acre 11/4 2pt win

1330 Leicester Mythical Dancer 6/5 2pt win 

1435 Leicester Jammrah 11/8 1pt win

Would have been another poor day. Will get picking well again soon. 

Typically the 1pt horse wins and the 2pt horses lose. 

Staked 5pts today and got back 2.6pts back so a loss of 2.4pts today.

Only doing it for a bit of fun currently so pretending to stake £1 a pt whilst I try and get my eye back in so from the first few days I would be -8.4pts overall.

Edited by Barnes1882
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6 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Last night - Having done the speed figures for the 2Yold Listed race at Fairyhouse i was quite surprised that Glengarra who beat Ultramarine giving it weight (3lbs) was 12/1 whereas Ultramarine was 2/1 Fav. To me it seems someone initially priced this race up after a few pints. Be careful out there people.

1 Glengarra          121           12/1 now 6/1

2 Eriskay               117           22/1 now 16/1

 

Well i called that one right (based on the available figures re- Ultramarine) although the once raced winner didn't half look like a very good horse probably group3  at very least was quite impressive.

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6 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Last one done was to win superbowl, bet Kansas City at £10 and it gives you £2 everytime 4 selected players score a touchdown. Have already won £12 in the past 2 sets of games and still have two games to play tonight/tomorrow. Derrick Henry ran 3 tds yesterday for £6 alone. 

Is that the Hills offer? Did that myself and wasn't sure how many freebies it had generated so far. Are you sure you get 3 for a hat trick though, rather than one? I thought it was a free bet every time they scored rather than for every TD they scored, so once per game max.

Edit: I think you're right, looking at the 3 freebies I've got lined up after yesterday's action.

Edited by harry_rag
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6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

For free bets it makes sense to back longer odds (6/1+) rather than shorter odds.

Or just use them as part of the stake for a bet you're going to have anyway? e.g. £2 freebie plus £18 for a £20 bet. I do that quite a lot.

I do record when a bet qualifies for or redeems a free bet but I haven't analysed it yet. I have a feeling I need to be slightly more disciplined about not placing bets I wouldn't have placed but for the freebie offer, though I've cut out most of the silly bets of my "youth"!

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18 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Or just use them as part of the stake for a bet you're going to have anyway? e.g. £2 freebie plus £18 for a £20 bet.

The maths supports backing at higher odds. Even if you fancy a 1/1 shot it would not make sense using a free bet on it.

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3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

The maths supports backing at higher odds. Even if you fancy a 1/1 shot it would not make sense using a free bet on it.

So is it a better use of a free bet to stick it on something at bigger odds that you fancy but might not otherwise have backed rather than just use it as part of the stake on something you would be backing anyway? e.g. I could have used a fiver freebie as part of a £20 bet on a 2/1 shot but I'm better of finding a 10/1 shot and using it on that?

I assume there's a law of diminishing returns if you use it on something you've more or less picked at random versus a shorter priced selection you are confident in?

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35 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

So is it a better use of a free bet to stick it on something at bigger odds that you fancy but might not otherwise have backed rather than just use it as part of the stake on something you would be backing anyway?

I would say so. If you backed 20/1 shots you would on average get back 95% of your free bet as profit, with even money shots only 50%. This ignores the favourite / longshot bias. I rarely get free bets these days but when I did I found that 6/1 to 10/1 was the most profitable range.

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Interesting, I'll give it some further thought.

A quick look tells me I've lost £144 on 77 bets that earned me a free bet but won £197 on 107 bets where I redeemed them. That includes winners at 45/1, 25/1 and 20/1 all of which look like things I backed because I had the freebie to redeem. (In order they were a player to get an assist in both halves, a horse during Cheltenham and a player to score a brace.) At least I'm up for now whether through luck or judgement!

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