Jump to content
** April Poker League Result : 1st Rav, 2nd kevsul, 3rd McG **
** April Naps Competition Result: 1st Craig bluenose, 2nd BBBC, 3rd LEE-GRAYS. KO Cup Winner dj.orange. Most Winners Johnrobertson **

Racing Chat - Tuesday 14th September


alexcaruso808

Recommended Posts

Just a few at the minute....

Redcar

1.40 - Mackenzie Rose - 9/2 - win - 3rd

            On The River - 8/1 - EW - 6th

Yarmouth

2.55 - Global Esteem - 5/1 - win - 1st ?

4.00 - Molly Shaw - 6/4 - win 2nd

 

Wolverhampton

5.50 - Night of Luxury 4/1 - win 2nd

            Secret Image - 4/1 - win 3rd

I couldn't decide on which of these Godolphin horses I wanted to back, so I choose them both.   Both have excellent jockeys and trainers - Saeed bin Suroor is a master of AW, although his record hasn't been that good lately.  

 

Good luck to everyone. ?

Lots of 2nds and 3rds today!!   

 

Edited by alexcaruso808
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Going to try my unseated pulled up in last couple of races most will be big prices but have had good results I think the pulled up are dodgy and some of the unseated

day 1

3.10 fontwell give use a swig 18/1 placed 20/1 bog:nana

50p e/w single bet365 

Edited by LEE-GRAYS
Link to comment
Share on other sites

September running total = + 21.21 pts

Todays selections - bet365 B.O.G.

1.10 Red - Macon Belle - 3/1 ... lost

2.55 Yar - Percys Lad - 9/2 .. lost

Both ran like stink today, ground could be a factor but probably not good enough.

This makes 19 winners from 39 selections, just under 50% which is similar to last month. September now = +19.21 pts

Edited by Bang on
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

A P O'Brien had 1 winner from 45 runners in 14 days RTF (running to form) 60% Ermmmmmmm that just tells me that RTF in the racing post is BS

How do they define "running to form".

What is the definition of a good run ? I've looked at various ways of measuring it over the years but I haven't found anything better than the basic finishing position.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

B/FWD SEP -8.81

NB These selections are not tip recommendations

1.00 Font Glimpse Of Gala 8/13                                     Alt (6) 85/40

4.45 Font Eye To The Sky 5/4                                         Alt (4) 13/8

4.55 Red Overthink 7/4 (11/10 last night)  DTR              Alt (1) 7/1

1.30 Punch Radiyha 3/1 DTR                                          Alt (9) 4/1

3.33 Punch Champion Green 4/6 DTR                           Alt (5) 16/5

4.05 Punch Flagged 11/4 (9/2 last night!) DTR              Alt (13) 10/3 (9/2 last night)

1.50 Yar My Little Tip 4/9 steady DTR                           Alt No Bet

5.20 Wolv Hellavaplace 11/4 (4/1 last night)                Alt (2) 11/2 (4/1 last night)

6.20 Wolv Astaroth 5/4 (2/1 last night) Value gone?    Alt (2) 7/2 (2/1) last night

7.50 Wolv Nomasee 16/5 (3/1 last night)                    Alt (2) 4/1 (13/2 last night

10/39 races = 25.6%

My Trixie based upon the above selections:

4.55 Red Overthink 15/8

4.05 Punch Flagged 11/4

5.20 Wolv Hellavapace 5/2

£1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £71.70

Singles Bet

7.50 Wolv Nomasee £2 win at 4.99 = profit of £7.82 if it wins

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

How do they define "running to form".

What is the definition of a good run ? I've looked at various ways of measuring it over the years but I haven't found anything better than the basic finishing position.

Exactly, that RTF is floss. If what is obvious and there for all to see ie O'Brien has only had 1 winner from 45 runners and you know O'Brien normally  fires them in regularly then what use is a 60% RTF? it only serves to send some inexperienced punters down the wrong path. In my view it is a totally useless piece of information, even in reverse its useless as you and i both know trainers are often in and out of form then all of a sudden winners, it is their modus operandi that is important.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Exactly, that RTF is floss. If what is obvious and there for all to see ie O'Brien has only had 1 winner from 45 runners and you know O'Brien normally  fires them in regularly then what use is a 60% RTF? it only serves to send some inexperienced punters down the wrong path. In my view it is a totally useless piece of information, even in reverse its useless as you and i both know trainers are often in and out of form then all of a sudden winners, it is their modus operandi that is important.

I use AE to assess success and the AE for O'Brien over that period is 0.17. That is very poor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

Going to try my unseated pulled up in last couple of races most will be big prices but have had good results I think the pulled up are dodgy and some of the unseated

day 1

3.10 fontwell give use a swig 18/1 placed 20/1 bog:nana

50p e/w single bet365 

p/l day 1 out £1 in £3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS TODAY

B/FWD SEP -8.81

NB These selections are not tip recommendations

1.00 Font Glimpse Of Gala 8/13                                     Alt (6) 85/40

4.45 Font Eye To The Sky 5/4                                         Alt (4) 13/8

4.55 Red Overthink 7/4 (11/10 last night)  DTR              Alt (1) 7/1

1.30 Punch Radiyha 3/1 DTR                                          Alt (9) 4/1

3.33 Punch Champion Green 4/6 DTR                           Alt (5) 16/5

4.05 Punch Flagged 11/4 (9/2 last night!) DTR              Alt (13) 10/3 (9/2 last night)

1.50 Yar My Little Tip 4/9 steady DTR                           Alt No Bet

5.20 Wolv Hellavaplace 11/4 (4/1 last night)                Alt (2) 11/2 (4/1 last night)

6.20 Wolv Astaroth 5/4 (2/1 last night) Value gone?    Alt (2) 7/2 (2/1) last night

7.50 Wolv Nomasee 16/5 (3/1 last night)                    Alt (2) 4/1 (13/2 last night

10/39 races = 25.6%

My Trixie based upon the above selections:

4.55 Red Overthink 15/8

4.05 Punch Flagged 11/4

5.20 Wolv Hellavapace 5/2

£1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £71.70

Singles Bet

7.50 Wolv Nomasee £2 win at 4.99 = profit of £7.82 if it wins

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

The big 3 got 5 winners today out of 10 selections however poor prices, apart from Nomasee meant a small profit of 1.17 points.  There is now a carry forward of -7.64 points

My alternatives came up with one winner at 7/1 from 9 selections so a loss of 1 point.  This makes a carry forward of - 64.40 points

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Book bets:

All 3 in the Trixie failed.  However, Nomasee just managed to hold on from a powerful Will Buick/David O'Meara challenge (hehe check out that combo's AE) .  Anyway this recorded a £3.81 net profit.  My balance now C/fwd is £718.48 (Bank £1056.22)

37 races tomorrow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Can't help wondering what Jessica Harrington's AE is? She got two more good priced winners today at the Curragh.  I hope that @Zilzalianwas on these? 

@MCLARKE said it was negative which is fair enough if your using pure statistics, I back them in multiples saturday = 3000/1+ (bopedro would have won if drawn better making it 40,000/1 ish)

50/1+ yesterday you dont need much on at those prices, my point was more to do with certain trainers have multiple winners mary reveley was one years ago, pipe etc obviously you cant back all the trainers that do it but by using experience you can pick and choose, my criteria is based on prices, no use backing 6 gosden horses a) because there all short prices and B) he may have 12 out in a day same with fahey, i merely advised someone that she was a good trainer to follow because she gets multiples and what happens about 3 days later? boom lol my profit on Saturday was £1,600 for a bet costing £9.30

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This calendar

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

I back them in multiples saturday = 3000/1+ (bopedro would have won if drawn better making it 40,000/1 ish)

Yes she had an excellent day but she did have 8 runners so you would have had to place 219 bets if you were trying to cover all the 3+ accumulators.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

@MCLARKE said it was negative which is fair enough if your using pure statistics, I back them in multiples saturday = 3000/1+ (bopedro would have won if drawn better making it 40,000/1 ish)

50/1+ yesterday you dont need much on at those prices, my point was more to do with certain trainers have multiple winners mary reveley was one years ago, pipe etc obviously you cant back all the trainers that do it but by using experience you can pick and choose, my criteria is based on prices, no use backing 6 gosden horses a) because there all short prices and B) he may have 12 out in a day same with fahey, i merely advised someone that she was a good trainer to follow because she gets multiples and what happens about 3 days later? boom lol my profit on Saturday was £1,600 for a bet costing £9.30

What made you back her? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

What made you back her? 

Well over the years i have had various trainers that i followed (2 or 3 at any one time) based on my experiences and i put them in small bets of lucky 15's and L31 and occasionally L63 knowing that at least once a season it will pay off, i think its good to have a few trainers that you follow, that is to say not big stables because you just cant cover them, Ireland, Harrington is a big stable but there are not loads of races, the only problem, she sometimes has 2 or 3 in one race then its logical to go with her stable jockey (foley) she also does it on the jumps, her and alan king are probably the best duel purpose trainers around. my main bets are win singles but i have made quite a bit of money out of the small cost lucky 15's, i call them my bonus bets, best i have done was 6K on a 30p L31 (£9.30) and it gives me something to watch in many races. there is no substitute for watching races and having a notebook. but obviously if your working you cant really do this to a great degree but the notebook is vital, most people just moan when they pick a loser instead of gleaning info from the race.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

This calendar

Yes she had an excellent day but she did have 8 runners so you would have had to place 219 bets if you were trying to cover all the 3+ accumulators.

Yes that's the problem i was lucky in respect that i chose the 5 races with 3 winners (bopedro really unlucky). but also did you notice Ger Lyons did even better noting that Keane on one got beat by the Lyons second string.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well over the years i have had various trainers that i followed (2 or 3 at any one time) based on my experiences and i put them in small bets of lucky 15's and L31 and occasionally L63 knowing that at least once a season it will pay off, i think its good to have a few trainers that you follow, that is to say not big stables because you just cant cover them, Ireland, Harrington is a big stable but there are not loads of races, the only problem, she sometimes has 2 or 3 in one race then its logical to go with her stable jockey (foley) she also does it on the jumps, her and alan king are probably the best duel purpose trainers around. my main bets are win singles but i have made quite a bit of money out of the small cost lucky 15's, i call them my bonus bets, best i have done was 6K on a 30p L31 (£9.30) and it gives me something to watch in many races. there is no substitute for watching races and having a notebook. but obviously if your working you cant really do this to a great degree but the notebook is vital, most people just moan when they pick a loser instead of gleaning info from the race.

I can see the logic, I see more and more trainers trying to at least get a double up these days. Probably because it can be a struggle to get on and doubles help the payout.

Saturday was also a good day for me, but the 1 let me down curse happened again. 5 selections, 4 winners (in trebles and an acca), and the last 1 (Line of Descent - 700 mile round trip - and odds on fav in the end) let me down. 2k instead of 7k.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Well over the years i have had various trainers that i followed (2 or 3 at any one time) based on my experiences and i put them in small bets of lucky 15's and L31 and occasionally L63 knowing that at least once a season it will pay off, i think its good to have a few trainers that you follow, that is to say not big stables because you just cant cover them, Ireland, Harrington is a big stable but there are not loads of races, the only problem, she sometimes has 2 or 3 in one race then its logical to go with her stable jockey (foley) she also does it on the jumps, her and alan king are probably the best duel purpose trainers around. my main bets are win singles but i have made quite a bit of money out of the small cost lucky 15's, i call them my bonus bets, best i have done was 6K on a 30p L31 (£9.30) and it gives me something to watch in many races. there is no substitute for watching races and having a notebook. but obviously if your working you cant really do this to a great degree but the notebook is vital, most people just moan when they pick a loser instead of gleaning info from the race.

Thanks for the reply. The only stable I really follow is Godolphin, mostly Charlie Appleby trained horses, especially if William Buick or James Doyle are the jockeys. I used to follow quite a lot of Saeed bin Suroor's horses, but hasn't been having a good time of late. The Gosdens are good too.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

Thanks for the reply. The only stable I really follow is Godolphin, mostly Charlie Appleby trained horses, especially if William Buick or James Doyle are the jockeys. I used to follow quite a lot of Saeed bin Suroor's horses, but hasn't been having a good time of late. The Gosdens are good too.  

always check the french Godolphin horses especially Fabre when he travels one. problem with the Godolfin horses they are generally too short a price to justify the bet, same with gosden. you are right about suroor seams to be very 3rd string now. Appleby has totally out performed him since taking over from Al Zaroony

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bang on said:

I can see the logic, I see more and more trainers trying to at least get a double up these days. Probably because it can be a struggle to get on and doubles help the payout.

Saturday was also a good day for me, but the 1 let me down curse happened again. 5 selections, 4 winners (in trebles and an acca), and the last 1 (Line of Descent - 700 mile round trip - and odds on fav in the end) let me down. 2k instead of 7k.

Yep have you noticed though its always the short prices that let you down more often than not, last breeders cup i was sitting for £32,000 and Siskin got beat is one example i remember well. Cue card falling in the gold cup cost me a whopper is another.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...