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NFL Week 2


Charon84
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Week 2 matches that can qualify in my system (favorites with spread 3.0 or less) at the moment:

Saints (-3.0) at Panthers 

Bengals at Bears (-3.0)

Bills (-3.0) at Dolphins

Cowboys at Chargers (-3.0)

Chiefs (-3.0) at Ravens

Going to analyze coming days.

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21 hours ago, Teodore said:

Any reasoning ?

Not yet :) it's only the matches that qualify spread wise. But with the change of spread all matches qualify except Browns - Texans, Buccs - Falcons and Packers - Lions.

For tomorrow I have a strong lean towards WFT. I know it's Heinicke as QB and he isn't great, but he fits the system. Giants QB Jones will have big trouble with pass rush / D-line WFT. It will cause some interceptions, fumbles or inaccurate passing. WFT should win with touchdown or more.

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Punters always over react to what happens in week one.

 Buffalo Bills were unlucky against the Steelers (blocked punt). Hopefully they will return to winning ways at Miami. Bills -3.5 @ 10/11

New England had a tough game against Miami, the jets looked poor. New England -5.5 @ 20/21

The 49 Ers made short work of Detroit for much of the game. They could be really good. 49 Ers  -3.5 v’s the Eagles @ 10/11

The Packers and Aaron Rodgers will not play as bad at home against a poor Detroit team. Packers -11 @ 10/11

I like this LA Rams team -4 @ 20/21

Normal bet 1 point Canadian, 4 point roll up

Record

Week 1 W2 D1 L2  loss - 18.47 (pre-season bets - 31 points).

Thats my thoughts.

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Charon84 I was all over Washington till I found this stat.

Daniel Jones has a career record of 8-19, He's 4-0 against Washington and 4-19 against everyone else. Every time these two teams play, Jones somehow turns into Tom Brady and the Giants somehow win. 

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On 9/16/2021 at 7:41 PM, PercyP said:

Charon84 I was all over Washington till I found this stat.

Daniel Jones has a career record of 8-19, He's 4-0 against Washington and 4-19 against everyone else. Every time these two teams play, Jones somehow turns into Tom Brady and the Giants somehow win. 

I did know that stat, but I simply ignored it cuz in my opinion trend-stats are bullshit. Different teams at that time, different situation and standings and it's just history. Just like roulette. If the ball lands 5 times on 0, doesn't change the probability the 6th time.

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San Francisco at Philadelphia:

24 points on Devonta Smith to score at TD at 11/5 and 20 on Dallas Goedert at 14/5, both with Hills

Goedert price looks most appealing but Smith still ok at bigger than 2/1. PP next best place to go, offering 11/4 instead of 14/5 and matching the 11/5.

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Dallas at LA Chargers: 20 points on Jared Cook to score at TD at 13/5 and 15 on Dak Prescott at 18/5, both with Hills

Also tempted/suckered in by a couple of boosted specials; 5 points on Prescott and Herbert each to throw 3+ TD at 10/1 Lads and 6 points on Chargers to win/both Ekeler and Lamb to score at TD at 9/1 Hills

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On 9/15/2021 at 8:13 PM, PercyP said:

Punters always over react to what happens in week one.

 Buffalo Bills were unlucky against the Steelers (blocked punt). Hopefully they will return to winning ways at Miami. Bills -3.5 @ 10/11

New England had a tough game against Miami, the jets looked poor. New England -5.5 @ 20/21

The 49 Ers made short work of Detroit for much of the game. They could be really good. 49 Ers  -3.5 v’s the Eagles @ 10/11

The Packers and Aaron Rodgers will not play as bad at home against a poor Detroit team. Packers -11 @ 10/11

I like this LA Rams team -4 @ 20/21

Normal bet 1 point Canadian, 4 point roll up

Record

Week 1 W2 D1 L2  loss - 18.47 (pre-season bets - 31 points).

Thats my thoughts.

Amazing job!

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Hockenson spares me the blushes of a wipeout week so it ends up 1 from 12 for a 117 points loss with an ROI of -72.92%. A bit of a contrast to last week's 6 from 10 haul!

7 winners from 22 bets overall for a profit of 123.5 points with an ROI of 34.08%. Level stakes return would be +5.3 points with an ROI of 25.25%.

Hopefully next week's results are a bit closer to week 1 than week 2!

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On 9/15/2021 at 7:13 PM, PercyP said:

Punters always over react to what happens in week one.

 Buffalo Bills were unlucky against the Steelers (blocked punt). Hopefully they will return to winning ways at Miami. Bills -3.5 @ 10/11

New England had a tough game against Miami, the jets looked poor. New England -5.5 @ 20/21

The 49 Ers made short work of Detroit for much of the game. They could be really good. 49 Ers  -3.5 v’s the Eagles @ 10/11

The Packers and Aaron Rodgers will not play as bad at home against a poor Detroit team. Packers -11 @ 10/11

I like this LA Rams team -4 @ 20/21

Normal bet 1 point Canadian, 4 point roll up

Record

Week 1 W2 D1 L2  loss - 18.47 (pre-season bets - 31 points).

Thats my thoughts.

Only a horrendous mistake by the Rams punt team prevented a full house in week two. Still a profit was returned.

The Bills and Patriots had comfortable wins and the 49Ers and Packer both came good in the second half of their games. 

The Rams were cruising by eleven until the punt team gave away eight points. Rams won by 3 but the spread was -4.

Week 2 record (ATS) W4 D0 L1 Return 64.01 for a profit of 34.01

YTD Record (ATS) W6 D1 L3 Profit +15.54 points (pre-season bets -31 points). 

 

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