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Non league - September 11th


Darran
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Kings Lynn v Dagenham & Redbridge (National League)
Dagenham have been very impressive so far this season and they will be disappointed that they only got a point at Wealdstone last week when they defended poorly a couple of times. They have been very strong up front though having scored at least 2 goals in every game so far and their xG is just over 2 as well whilst their opponents is just under 1. They are likely to get some good chances against their hosts who apart from keeping a poor Yeovil quiet have been conceding plenty of good chances to their opponents. This game is on BT Sport tomorrow afternoon and hopefully we will see one of my ante-post bets for the title win fairly comfortably. 
 
Torquay v Grimsby (National League)
Torquay finally won their first game of the season last week at Maidenhead, but after being 4 up at half time they lost the 2nd half 3-0 and the story of their season so far is that they are giving their opponents some good goal scoring opportunities. Currently their opponents xG is 1.96 compared to their own 1.27 and even in the game last week Maidenhead's xG was higher. That win might see them kick on, but I do think the hangover from losing the play-off final is still there and I am opposing them on Saturday. Grimsby also won a game which ended 4-3 as they beat Barnet with a superb free kick in injury time. I know Barnet going down to 10 men helped, but they were creating lots of chances and I think they deserved the win in the end. Barnet just happened to be very clinical and they were the first team to actually have a shot on target against Grimsby this season. I think they look stronger than Torquay this season so will take them to win this.
 
Wealdstone v Altrincham (National League
I am going to try Wealdstone again here as I did in their previous home game. That afternoon they drew 0-0 with Southend and although they were probably fortunate to get a point against Dagenham last week it showed again that they have been putting in some very good performances and one of them deserves to be turned into 3 points soon. Altrincham may have been fortunate to have played Torquay on the opening day and then Dover last week to get their two wins on the board. When they faced Halifax in between they weren't great and lost 2-0. With home advantage I would make the home side favourites myself.
 
Blyth Spartans v Darlington (National League North)
A local derby here and I like the home side. They looked on paper a much stronger squad then they had been the last couple of years and that has shown on the pitch as well as they have only lost one of their opening 5 games. That defeat was against a bang in form Kidderminster so there was no disgrace in that and they got a very good point against Brackley last week. Darlington on the other hand have had a horrid start to the season losing all 3 games to Alfreton, Curzon and Bradford. Given how both sides have been playing so far I make the home side odds on shots to win this.
 
Gloucester v Curzon (National League North)
Last season my own side won me plenty of money as it took the bookies a while to cotton on to how good we were, this season hopefully I can continue to make money from their games just that this time around I am taking them on. Obviously as much as I thought we would lose last week I wasn't expecting a 9-0 defeat, but it wasn't a great surprise that after being 2 down and a man down after 20 minutes that the players basically gave up. They hadn't tried much against Kettering either and I just don't see what will change ahead of this game. The Curzon manager summed things up nicely for me when he said that credit to Gloucester because they had tried to pass the ball around, but it was a bit naive because it meant Chorley could pick them off at will. Yes Chorley scored some good goals which on another day might not have gone in, but the defending was shocking and some of the chances were gifts. Paul Groves doesn't seem to have a plan b and we have made it pretty clear to every one else in the league what they have to do to beat us. There doesn't seem to be any new players arriving ahead of this game so as much as sometimes teams can bounce back from a heavy defeat because they are hurting, I am not sure what exactly will have changed. Curzon have started the season in fantastic form having lost just once to Boston and looked very good last week in a 3-0 win over Leamington. I'd love to be wrong, but I find it hard to see anything other than an away win and they should be favourites.
 
Chippenham v Chelmsford (National League South)
There is some irony in the fact that Chippenham who basically have a team of ex Gloucester players and a former Gloucester manager have actually started the season well. They are unbeaten in 4 games and currently 5th in the table. Mike Cook has made them tough to beat, but they have had a bit of luck in one or two of their games and I think Chelmsford are a spot of value to beat them. Vincent Harper has been one of their best players this season and he left earlier in the week and that will weaken them in my opinion. Chelmsford lost their opening 2 games, but they have improved after that and after beating Bath they have got two very good draws against Ebbsfleet and Dorking. I would have these two sides much closer in the betting than they are.
 
Dagenham & Redbridge 2.5pts @ 10/11 with Betfred, William Hill & Bet365 (Evs is available with Betway and take up to 8/13)
Grimsby 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8)
Wealdstone 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4)
Blyth Spartans 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 4/5)
Curzon Ashton 3pts @ 15/8 with BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 5/4)
Chelmsford 1pt @ 12/5 with Betfred (take up to 7/4)
 
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