Racing Chat - Thursday 9th September

[The Brigadier]

Day two of the  2021 St Leger meeting will start on likely fast ground though that will need to be monitored with rain due throughout the end of the week. ITV has its cameras not just there but for a race at Epsom and here’s my early thoughts :-

 

Doncaster 1.40

A 50k fillies nursery gets us up and running today and has quite an open feel to it. Charlie Appleby saddles his Invincible Spirit filly Summers Day who made light work of her opposition in a Brighton maiden last time with her mark of 81 looking reasonable. She should be thereabouts. Others with chances include David Evan’s top weight Dora Penny who’s on a hat trick and Ralph Beckett’s Daiquiri Francais who’s also on a hat trick following two wins at Windsor. An interesting outsider is bottom weight Gnat Alley who was slowly away last time but ran on to some effect and has already been supported in the ante  post market. It’s not an easy race to solve but I’ll go with  Daiquiri Francais who’s latest victory has been boosted by the runner up who’s won twice since.

 

DAIQUIRI FRANCAIS 1 point each way @ 9/2 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

Doncaster 210

This 6 1/2F sales race has not surprisingly with prize money down to the tenth place attracted a maximum field of 22 and a confident selection is Andre Balding’s improver Harrow. It’s take a while for the penny to drop and he’s a lot more co-operative than when we first saw this son of El Kabeir earlier in the season. He followed up his Ffos Las win with a comprehensive victory in a 7F nursery at the York Ebor meeting over 7F and with the slight drop in distance unlikely to be an issue and a possible good draw in stall 15 he can run a big race. There’s plenty of dead wood here and the others likely to make a race out of it with Harrow are Tom Dascombe’s  Ever Given who won a similar contest at York’s Ebor meeting and Jazz Club who looked when winning at Windsor 24 days ago and sporting first time blinkers today.

 

HARROW 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365

 

Doncaster 2.40

Inspiral will be at skinny odds to take this, the Cazoo May Hill Stakes run over a mile for Newmarket handlers John and Thady Gosden who won this race last year with Indigo Girl. She picked up well last time in listed company when coming through to easily beat her field at Sandown. The step up to a mile will suit and the opposition don’t look good enough with the Balding runner Speak likely to chase home the favourite with her debut form working out so well.  Too short to back singly but a banker in an accumulative bet.

 

Epsom 2.55

The jump jockey’s Derby is run over the full Derby distance and is a unique race for professional jump jockeys. It’s only a 66-85 handicap and the one which takes my eye is the Fergal O’Brien trained Valentino Dancer. Predominately jumps trainer O’Brien has his trying in excellent shape winning with 7 of his last 18 runners and this 6 year old won for his daughter Fern at Newbury four weeks ago and may still have more to give following just a 2lb rise in the handicap.

 

VALENTINO DANCER 1 point each way  @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Doncaster 315

The Group 2 Park Hill Stakes is the fillies ‘St Leger’ run over the Leger distance of 14F 115 yds and is open to three year olds and upwards. John and Thady Gosden saddle Free Wind who will go off favourite  following an improved effort in France last time when winning a Group 3 at Deauville over 12F and steps up in trip here. That shouldn’t be a worry but the price is! At around the 2/1 mark I would rather be against her than with her and I’ll take her on with the Hugo Palmer trained Golden Pass who showed great tenacity when out battling Free Wind at Newmarket in a listed race at Newmarket in July and is a pound better off today. Unlike Free Wind though Golden Pass has gone on to run a lifeless race when a well supported second favourite behind Hukum in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last month. There must of been a reason for that poor showing and at five times the price of the favourite I’ll play her each way in the hope that James Doyle’s mount can bounce back to form today.

 

GOLDEN PASS 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 123 William Hill

 

Doncaster 345

Available as big as 9/2 earlier in the week Charlie Appleby’s improving three year old Modern News will be hard to beat today. He came back from a gelding operation and a 392 day absence to win at Newmarket on the last day of July and has been given time to get over that run. He’s been raised 6lb for that win but appeals as one that can win again before being elevated into pattern class. The main danger appears to be the William Haggas trained Motawaajed who’s chasing a hat trick following wins at Lingfield and here over course and distance. He’s only been raised 2lb for that latest win and can push the selection all the way. The best outsider may be TJ Kent’s Ataser who won a nursery at the meeting last year but has been very lightly raced since.

 

MODERN  NEWS 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill

 

 

[fd1972uk]

Might do another couple tomorrow. 

 

Treble is a free bet. 

 

Edited September 8, 2021 by fd1972uk
Edit

[Zilzalian]

TV 2yo races tomorrow

140 I have it between Prism and Dora Penny

210 I have it between Home City and System

240 Inspiral is top speed figure but be warned by my book/figures it should be 5/4 it has yet to prove itself (we have seen these before)

some good 2yo races at Longchamp but i cant split them so i wont be having a singles bet there.

[Offramp]

In the 13:40 at Doncaster I couldn't make up my mind between GNAT ALLEY & SUMMER'S DAY so I've done a reverse forecast. Seems reasonable. They aren't big odds, they are JF at 7/2.

Edited September 9, 2021 by Offramp
odd adds

[Lanky Lad]

Doncaster.2.10 Harrow 4/1

Donc.3.15. Save A Forest 5/1

7.30 Chelmsford. Iesha. 7/1

3 x 1 point each way doubles

1 point each way treble.

1.40 Doncaster. Daiquiris Francais 4/1

7.00 Chelmsford. Eton  College 7/1

1 point each way double.

Total Amount Staked = 10 points

[The Equaliser]

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

B/FWD SEP -7.65 POINTS

1.00 Chep Albezabar evens ( was 4/7 last night)                                               Alt (8) 2/1 (was 5/2 last night)

3.05 Chep Manumission 4/1 (was 7/2 last night)                                              Alt (1) 7/2 (was 11/4 fav last night)

1.10 Don Lord P 15/8 (was 13/8 last night)                                                      Alt (5) 9/2

1.40 Don Dalquin Francais 4/1 steady  DTR                                                      Alt (3) 4/1

2.40 Don Inspiral 4/11 steady               DTR                                                     Alt: No bet

1.50 Eps Chepchik 2/1 (13/8 last night)                                                            Alt (1) 7/4 Fav

3.55 Eps Curtiz 8/11 (was 10/11 last night)                                                      Alt (2) 11/2

6.00 Chelm Sky Blue Thinking 85/40 steady DTR                                              Alt (6) 15/2

7.00 Chelm Miami Joy 15/8 (9/4 last night)                                                     Alt (4) 7/1 (was 5/1 last night)

9 selections out of 30 races = 30%

Edited September 9, 2021 by The Equaliser

[LEE-GRAYS]

todays horses hope for profit today 

Chepstow

2.00 Siglo six 11/1

2.35 Red bravo 9/2

3.05 Sir rodric 8/1

4.05 Delahoussaye 7/1 (nap)

4.35 Our man in havana 13/2

Doncaster

1.10 Embour 4/1 non runner

Epsom

2.55 Francisco bay 14/1

5.00 Mutaraafeq 9/2 placed

Chelmsford

6.00 Spring romance 8/1

6.30 Purple power

7.30 Jeremiah johnson 12/1

8.00 Tilsworth rose 14/1

out £11

all bets 50p e/w bet365

g/l lee

Edited September 10, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[fd1972uk]

Bit busy at work, try and get a look at some runners and see if I fancy it. Wil try and post. 

Do have a couple of free bets and may take up. The PP free bet if 2-4 at Don 1340 (already done sky offer). 

[The Equaliser]

Big 3 Trixie

1.40 Don Dalquin Francais 4/1

3.05 Chep Manumission 4/1

6.00 Chelm Sky Blue Thiinking 2/1  (up another 6lbs)

One £1 win Trixie = £4 poss return of £130.00

Jockey booking Trixie

3.25 Eps Knowing (TM) 3/1

3.35 Chep Dirtyoldtown (RR) 7/4

8.00 Chelm Storm Melody (RH) 3/1

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return £82.00

PL Lounge inspired Trixie

2.10 Don Ever Given 9/4

2.35 Chep Brezzas lad 4/1 (let's hope that Breezyandbright is unsettled at the start again)

3.45 Don Motawaajed 9/4

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £95.87

Single bet

3.15 Don Golden Pass £1 win at 9/1

Total spend so far = £13.00

[Bang on]

September running total = + 21.96 pts

After a busy day yesterday, my selection process has thrown up just the 1 selection today. Another race put up 2 possibles so rather than put up 2 in a race I am leaving them out.

Todays selection - bet365 B.O.G.

3.35 Chep - Dirty old town - 11/8 ... WON Ev

With a couple of non runners because of a going change, we have to take the S.P. of Evens. Another winner though and a profit.

September total now = + 22.96 pts

Edited September 9, 2021 by Bang on

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Chelmsford 4.55

PERSIAN ROYAL 3/1

[roger2256]

September -6 

1pt level stakes win only 

15.45 Don Seven Brothers 14/1

18.00 Che Trusty Scout 20/1

Prices as of now b365 

[fd1972uk]

3 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Bit busy at work, try and get a look at some runners and see if I fancy it. Wil try and post. 

Do have a couple of free bets and may take up. The PP free bet if 2-4 at Don 1340 (already done sky offer). 

Like yesterday didn't take the chance of the moneyback offer with the winner, used a free bet, had chosen Dora Penny in end. None of the two moneyback placed, lol. 9/1 yesterday and now 10/1, albeit got something back on free bet. 

Treble waiting on 3rd horse. 

Took Tilsworth Rose tonight e/w Chelmsford 8pm,  25/1

[azzybear]

free wind 3.15

[The Brigadier]

23 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Day two of the  2021 St Leger meeting will start on likely fast ground though that will need to be monitored with rain due throughout the end of the week. ITV has its cameras not just there but for a race at Epsom and here’s my early thoughts :-

 

Doncaster 1.40

A 50k fillies nursery gets us up and running today and has quite an open feel to it. Charlie Appleby saddles his Invincible Spirit filly Summers Day who made light work of her opposition in a Brighton maiden last time with her mark of 81 looking reasonable. She should be thereabouts. Others with chances include David Evan’s top weight Dora Penny who’s on a hat trick and Ralph Beckett’s Daiquiri Francais who’s also on a hat trick following two wins at Windsor. An interesting outsider is bottom weight Gnat Alley who was slowly away last time but ran on to some effect and has already been supported in the ante  post market. It’s not an easy race to solve but I’ll go with  Daiquiri Francais who’s latest victory has been boosted by the runner up who’s won twice since.

 

DAIQUIRI FRANCAIS 1 point each way @ 9/2 1/5th 1234 William Hill

 

Doncaster 210

This 6 1/2F sales race has not surprisingly with prize money down to the tenth place attracted a maximum field of 22 and a confident selection is Andre Balding’s improver Harrow. It’s take a while for the penny to drop and he’s a lot more co-operative than when we first saw this son of El Kabeir earlier in the season. He followed up his Ffos Las win with a comprehensive victory in a 7F nursery at the York Ebor meeting over 7F and with the slight drop in distance unlikely to be an issue and a possible good draw in stall 15 he can run a big race. There’s plenty of dead wood here and the others likely to make a race out of it with Harrow are Tom Dascombe’s  Ever Given who won a similar contest at York’s Ebor meeting and Jazz Club who looked when winning at Windsor 24 days ago and sporting first time blinkers today.

 

HARROW 2 points each way @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Bet365

 

Doncaster 2.40

Inspiral will be at skinny odds to take this, the Cazoo May Hill Stakes run over a mile for Newmarket handlers John and Thady Gosden who won this race last year with Indigo Girl. She picked up well last time in listed company when coming through to easily beat her field at Sandown. The step up to a mile will suit and the opposition don’t look good enough with the Balding runner Speak likely to chase home the favourite with her debut form working out so well.  Too short to back singly but a banker in an accumulative bet.

 

Epsom 2.55

The jump jockey’s Derby is run over the full Derby distance and is a unique race for professional jump jockeys. It’s only a 66-85 handicap and the one which takes my eye is the Fergal O’Brien trained Valentino Dancer. Predominately jumps trainer O’Brien has his trying in excellent shape winning with 7 of his last 18 runners and this 6 year old won for his daughter Fern at Newbury four weeks ago and may still have more to give following just a 2lb rise in the handicap.

 

VALENTINO DANCER 1 point each way  @ 5/1 1/5th 1234 Paddy Power

 

Doncaster 315

The Group 2 Park Hill Stakes is the fillies ‘St Leger’ run over the Leger distance of 14F 115 yds and is open to three year olds and upwards. John and Thady Gosden saddle Free Wind who will go off favourite  following an improved effort in France last time when winning a Group 3 at Deauville over 12F and steps up in trip here. That shouldn’t be a worry but the price is! At around the 2/1 mark I would rather be against her than with her and I’ll take her on with the Hugo Palmer trained Golden Pass who showed great tenacity when out battling Free Wind at Newmarket in a listed race at Newmarket in July and is a pound better off today. Unlike Free Wind though Golden Pass has gone on to run a lifeless race when a well supported second favourite behind Hukum in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last month. There must of been a reason for that poor showing and at five times the price of the favourite I’ll play her each way in the hope that James Doyle’s mount can bounce back to form today.

 

GOLDEN PASS 1 point each way @ 11/1 1/5th 123 William Hill

 

Doncaster 345

Available as big as 9/2 earlier in the week Charlie Appleby’s improving three year old Modern News will be hard to beat today. He came back from a gelding operation and a 392 day absence to win at Newmarket on the last day of July and has been given time to get over that run. He’s been raised 6lb for that win but appeals as one that can win again before being elevated into pattern class. The main danger appears to be the William Haggas trained Motawaajed who’s chasing a hat trick following wins at Lingfield and here over course and distance. He’s only been raised 2lb for that latest win and can push the selection all the way. The best outsider may be TJ Kent’s Ataser who won a nursery at the meeting last year but has been very lightly raced since.

 

MODERN  NEWS 3 points win @ 11/8 William Hill

 

 

Three returns from five bets for a profit of 13.7 points.  Friday's thoughts up shortly .

[Offramp]

This acca was never going to win much money, but VALENTINO DANCER missed finishing in the first 4.

[Zilzalian]

23 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

TV 2yo races tomorrow

140 I have it between Prism and Dora Penny

210 I have it between Home City and System

240 Inspiral is top speed figure but be warned by my book/figures it should be 5/4 it has yet to prove itself (we have seen these before)

some good 2yo races at Longchamp but i cant split them so i wont be having a singles bet there.

Prism 3rd 16/1 bit of EW money there for those EW backers.

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

BEST OF THE BEST SELECTIONS

B/FWD SEP -7.65 POINTS

1.00 Chep Albezabar evens ( was 4/7 last night)                                               Alt (8) 2/1 (was 5/2 last night)

3.05 Chep Manumission 4/1 (was 7/2 last night)                                              Alt (1) 7/2 (was 11/4 fav last night)

1.10 Don Lord P 15/8 (was 13/8 last night)                                                      Alt (5) 9/2

1.40 Don Dalquin Francais 4/1 steady  DTR                                                      Alt (3) 4/1

2.40 Don Inspiral 4/11 steady               DTR                                                     Alt: No bet

1.50 Eps Chepchik 2/1 (13/8 last night)                                                            Alt (1) 7/4 Fav

3.55 Eps Curtiz 8/11 (was 10/11 last night)                                                      Alt (2) 11/2

6.00 Chelm Sky Blue Thinking 85/40 steady DTR                                              Alt (6) 15/2

7.00 Chelm Miami Joy 15/8 (9/4 last night)                                                     Alt (4) 7/1 (was 5/1 last night)

9 selections out of 30 races = 30%

RESULTS UPDATE

Four winners out of 9 selections but short prices prevented an overall profit.  A small loss of 1.79 point meanS a c/wfd loss of 9.44 points

My alternatives produced 1 winner at 9/2 which was handy out of 8 selctions.  This still produced a loss of -2.5 points.  The balance C/fwd is -52.23 points

There was on odds on favourite between 1/2 & evens and this won at 8/11 This would have left layers down about 7.34 points today

 

[The Equaliser]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Big 3 Trixie

1.40 Don Dalquin Francais 4/1

3.05 Chep Manumission 4/1

6.00 Chelm Sky Blue Thiinking 2/1  (up another 6lbs)

One £1 win Trixie = £4 poss return of £130.00

Jockey booking Trixie

3.25 Eps Knowing (TM) 3/1

3.35 Chep Dirtyoldtown (RR) 7/4

8.00 Chelm Storm Melody (RH) 3/1

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return £82.00

PL Lounge inspired Trixie

2.10 Don Ever Given 9/4

2.35 Chep Brezzas lad 4/1 (let's hope that Breezyandbright is unsettled at the start again)

3.45 Don Motawaajed 9/4

One £1 win Trixie = £4 = Poss return of £95.87

Single bet

3.15 Don Golden Pass £1 win at 9/1

Total spend so far = £13.00

RESULTS UPDATE

My jockey bookings Trixie produced a Trixie.  Unfortunately there was a rule 4 of 35p in Dirtyoldtown's race. This meant that instead of a payout of £82.00 my return was reduced to £67.30.  The bookies seem to get it always. a net profit of £54.30 at least brings my balance back to £720.11 (Bank £1056.22)

Five meetings tomorrow and 35 races to look at

 

 

[LEE-GRAYS]

21 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

todays horses hope for profit today 

Chepstow

2.00 Siglo six 11/1

2.35 Red bravo 9/2

3.05 Sir rodric 8/1

4.05 Delahoussaye 7/1 (nap)

4.35 Our man in havana 13/2

Doncaster

1.10 Embour 4/1 non runner

Epsom

2.55 Francisco bay 14/1

5.00 Mutaraafeq 9/2 placed

Chelmsford

6.00 Spring romance 8/1

6.30 Purple power

7.30 Jeremiah johnson 12/1

8.00 Tilsworth rose 14/1

out £11

all bets 50p e/w bet365

g/l lee

out £79 In £52.55

bad day